The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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Tex
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 3782
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NFL line moves
One of the biggest moves of the week was a surge of Philadelphia cash pushing the Eagles from a pick'em to minus-3. You've got a team in desperation like the Eagles who have to win against an upstart team like the Redskins, who believe they are a good team. It's hard to tell who has the edge here, the team that got 59 points put on them in a Monday night game last year or the team that put the 59 on the board.
Lucky's sports books in Las Vegas has posted a proposition this week that allow bettors to place their opinion with money on whether or not the Eagles will make the playoffs. The YES returns +325 while the NO requires you to lay -450.
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"We got some early play on the Rams and Eagles, said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book assistant manger Jeff Sherman. "I think with the Rams having an extra week to prepare and the Packers offensive line being a major question mark this week that early money found the Rams very attractive at +15 and +14 ˝. Not having a cohesive offensive line can be almost as damaging to a team as not having their starting running back, and with the Packers you're talking about the left tackle who protects the edge for Aaron Rodgers that could also have an effect on their passing game."
The Packers are currently -14.
The biggest game of the week from a fan appeal standpoint is the Cowboys visiting New England. A lot of Dallas money has been showing up taking this game from what appeared to be a strong -7 to -6.
Dallas has gone 10 straight games where the margin of victory has been four points or less.
Perhaps the biggest game of the week from just wins and losses is the 49ers taking on the Lions where 49ers' money came in early dropping the Lions from -5 to -4.
"We haven't had any large support on the 49ers here, but I've seen the game dropping everywhere else," said Cantor Gaming's sports book director Mike Colbert. "Personally, I'd lean to Detroit here. I can't see them losing their first game at home and I don't think the 49ers are as good as people are making them to be."
One of the games that has a huge disparity from Cantor Gaming's initial early line release of all 17 weeks is the Panthers-Falcons game.
"We opened the Falcons as 10 ˝-point favorites with the thinking that Atlanta was one of the top two or three teams in the conference while Carolina was expected to be awful again," Colbert said. "Right now were currently at -4 and I would be surprised to see Cam Newton and the Panthers pull off the outright win. The Falcons defense is soft and Matt Ryan has been a huge disappointment."
The Falcons opened as 5-point favorites at most sports books on Monday and are now pretty universal at -4.
"I look at the Bengals laying seven and just keep thinking that they should be a touchdown over anyone," said Colbert referring to the Bengals standing still all week as 7-point favorites. "I like what Dalton has been doing there, but I think the Colts are going to give them a pretty good fight in this one."
The real puzzler this week is the Bears dropping from a 3-point home favorite to -2 ˝ against the Vikings where simple ratings show the Bears being closer to a 4-point favorite.
"We were down on the Bears coming into the season, and it looks like we are pretty close to being right on them," said Sherman. "And if you look at what the Vikings have done this season, they have shown that they are capable of playing with anyone despite the their second half collapses."
give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"
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10-16-11 03:20 PM |
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Tex
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 3782
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With the first five weeks of the 2011 NFL season in the books, we’ve uncovered a number of trends that have been established.
1. When OVER the total receives more than 80% of the public support, the OVER is 18-4 (82%). When OVER the total receives less than 60% of the public support, the OVER is 9-2 (82%).
2. Home Underdogs are a lukewarm 15-13 ATS (54%). However, Home Underdogs of 3 points or less are 9-5 (64%). Home Underdogs of more than 5 points are 6-4 ATS (60%).
3. In all divisional matchups, the side that gets the majority of support from the betting public is 6-12 ATS (33%).
4. Road Underdogs of 3 points or less are 10-4 ATS (71%). Road Underdogs of 9 points or more are 6-2 ATS (75%). All Underdogs of 10 points or more are 6-2 ATS (75%).
5. In all AFC vs. NFC matchups, NFC teams are 8-5 ATS (62%).
6. When the total ranges from 40 to 41.5 (inclusive), Underdogs are 13-3 ATS (81%). OVER the total is 13-4 (76%) in these games.
7. When the Road team receives more than 65% of the public support, Road teams are 18-11 ATS (62%).
8. OVER the total is 11-2 (85%) in games in which the total is less than 40.
OVER the total is 6-2 (75%) in games in which the total is 50 or more.
OVER the total is 13-3 (81%) in games in which the spread is less than 3 points.
give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"
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10-16-11 05:12 PM |
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