that I have played so far this year, 10 out 14 dog losses were by 1 goal. Luckily for me, the 4 two-goal-or-more losses occurred in the same five team parlay. Bad day for dogs on that day. Hope Sawyer can come up with your data answer. But I think the % will be higher than 50.

NJ DEVILS +100
PHO COYOTES +140
WIN JETS +195

No line for WAS-PIT game yet. May add more plays later, See you!

For last season, 47.6% of games were decided by one goal.

When dogs won, it was by one goal 54.4% of the time.

When favs won, it was by one goal 42.2% of the time.

Hope that helps a little.

Mozart,

PIT +145 WIN 4-3 Record: 1-0, +1.45
NYR +108 LOST 2-3
TAM +105 WIN 5-1
DAL +110 WIN 2-1 Record: 3-1, +2.6 Units
DAL +165 LOST 5-2 Record: 3-2, +1.6 Units
MON +105 WIN 5-1 Record: 4-2, +2.65 Units
PHO +121 LOST 1-2
TAM +148 LOST 5-6 Record: 4-4, +0.65 Units
VAN +115 LOST 4-5 Record: 4-5, -0.35 Units

We had 9 plays so far this season. If we had picked +1.5 in every game, we would have only one loss. But it's only after 9 plays. Over 100-200 plays, these numbers may be different.

+1.5 PL may look sexy but over the long haul, profit may decrease dramatically since juice is high.

For example, NJ+1.5 is -295, PHO+1.5 -235 and WIN+1.5 is -165 today.

So +1.5 gives high win rate but short odds..On the other side, ML offers low win rate but high odds. Have to look thru previous season's Iron Dogs thread to find an answer.

PITTSBURGH +105

About other plays,

Dallas Stars would be a play if they were underdog. Looks like no play since Stars are -104 at the moment.

Check this game later. If Stars become dog, we will have one more play..

10/13 Full Card

PIT PENGUINS
PHO COYOTES
NJ DEVILS
WIN JETS

4 Plays for today, Good luck all!

DALLAS +102

Dallas is +102 at Pinnacle and +100 at 5Dimes.

Even if odds drops later and it becomes the favourite, it doesn't matter. It's qualified as a play.

Let's go Dallas!

5 Plays for today. That's all. Won't add any other plays for Thursday..GL!

PS: I hope Jets win tonight. Odds are delicious and we picked it at very nice odds!

Excellent card, thank you!

You have mentioned that your preference is with flat betting (over other forms of MM) but I just wanted to put a quick note here that I'll be tracking how the Iron Dogs would perform with a labby-style concept. I am quite a fan of the labby and have made a substantial profit applying its principles to MLB investing this season. I'll share the results after 20-30 days of tracking, if permitted. In the meanwhile, will be playing flat and light in October and very much enjoying it. Thanks again, Sawyer and good luck!

Do you see any value in playing 50% of the wager at +1.5 on the big dogs like Winnipeg tonight?

Solid profitable night Sawyer :) ! Way to go!

Got my $$ back from Texas. Nice job tonight.

Few bounces away from 5-0

PIT +105 Lost 3-2
NJD +100 Win 2-1
PHO +140 Win 5-2
DAL +102 Win 3-2
WIN +195 Lost 4-3

Record: 7-7, +1.07 Units

+1.5 PL Iron dogs are 13-1 so far this season. Interesting.

Juice is too much but may be a good idea to pick +1 PL. Juice is something like -140 if I recall correctly. Check out 5Dimes. Of course, odds are different for every game.

Personally, I'm betting what I posted here, picking all dogs moneyline. But I'll track +1 PL too. May be a good idea to play these as well. We can double our profit at the end of season maybe, why not?

Make sure you keep your discipline. Just stick with flat betting. Don't go too wild/crazy about one play. Don't bet *1 unit on one play and *20 unit on another play..

2 plays on board for Thursday. We may have 1 Iron Dog Play for today.

Will post today's Iron Dog play thru 9 AM. See ya!

One Iron Dog Play for today..

ANAHEIM DUCKS +110

Good luck!

Sawyer --

Yes, I love the PL plays on your Iron Dogs, man!

Yesterday, due to the sheer size of the number of Iron Dog plays (5 dogs), I went with a two-teamer, 5-bet round-robin parlay with $50 each bet.

Total bets were 10 bets, so that was $500 at risk. The return was a bit over $600, which was six units, far more than the bit over two units that I won with the main ML bets.

I also threw $50 on a straight-up parlay as a test and it paid out $312 -- that's a bit over three units.

So I won:

ML bets -- 2 units, plus a bit.

RR parlay -- 6 units, plus a bit.

5-teamer parlay -- 3 units, plus a bit.

Nice start for me!

This particular RR parlay was the first one that I had 100% of the teams win. Nice!

I think that your Iron Dogs are so competitive that the odds are VERY good that over the season, that above 80% of them will win the PL +1.5 plays with many of the daily straight-up PL +1.5 parlay plays also winning.

I can't thank you enough, Sawyer, for giving me a ray of light that I badly needed -- not to mention others.

So please do keep on posting your Iron Dogs and keep on doing your formula for finding those Iron Dogs that are very competitive and please don't dilute the strength of the Iron Dogs by incorporating weak dogs.

In my RR parlay that I posted about in my previous post, the total return was a bit over $1,100 for a yield of a bit over $600 in profit.

The rest of the winnings was getting my parlay bets back, of course.

With the extremely-high-juice RR parlays, 100% wins pay out very nicely; one loss (out of 3 to 6 teams) will cut profit margins massively, creating small profits to decent profits, depending on how many teams that you have on the RR play.

Two losses could either induce wipe-out losses, break-even money or very small profits.

Your margin of error (losses) is very small -- keep that in mind.

So when you start out with the parlay strategies, keep in mind that you have to win a high percentage of the bets to make the RR bets pay off.

Start out with .25 to .50 units per bet on the RR parlays... as you win the parlays, you can add to the parlay betting until you reach your standard unit sizes for the RR parlay bets.

Same thing with the straight-up parlay bets -- start out small, then build up your bets as you accumulate your parlay money. You'll be surprised at how many of those straight-up parlay bets would win based on the Iron Dogs.

I can't thank Sawyer enough for his Iron Dogs!

Moz,

Well, I have only 14 plays so far this season. 14 is a very small sample size as you know. Over the long haul, +1.5 PL Win % may change dramatically..

My suggestion is, you can look thru my plays for previous season and see how dogs were doing when picked +1.5 PL. I had approximately 300 plays last season so it's a very healty/reliable sample size.

Another alternative can be +1 PL bet where your bet is voided in case of a lose by 1 goal. Less juice. For example, Anaheim+1 PL is -161 but +1.5 PL is -250.



I wish everyone a profitable night. Let's go Ducks!

Will have a large card tomorrow. See ya!

Sawyer --

I totally agree that a much-larger sample size is needed. A sample size of at least 32 games would have statistical relevance, based on what I learned from statistics way back in my university days. Of course a 300-count database would even be better.

So it won't take long for us to reach that sample size -- another week, or so.

I'll certainly look through last year's Iron Dog thread to look for patterns and I'll report the results when I get them as I go along. I'll look at the results on a month-to-month basis. I'll look for changes that may happen over time, as trends do change as the seasons go, for sure.

I wish that I could bet -1 on hockey, but I bet cash at casinos and they don't allow -1 bets, which is really stupid, as they've (Cal-Neva at Tahoe) upgraded their ticket machines to computerized ones, so it's a simple matter of programming to add in the -1 plays.

I'm looking forward to your large card tomorrow.

If you want to check last years games with PL here is the site.

http://scoresandodds.com/

find the calendar and click the double-arrow on the top left.

Anaheim +1.5 -267. ML +113

Risk 122.82 to win 46.00 usd
Risk 46.00 to win 51.98 usd

Risking 168.82 to win 97.98

PM me and I'll send you the RL-1 download

Ducks Winner!

Record: 8-7, +2.17 Units