I think that it just evened out.

Unbelieveable..Sharks take the lead and lost in OT.

Guys,

Something is really wrong. Maybe books are catching up? Don't want anyone to lose money here so I'm dropping dogs for a while. If they get hot again, may start posting again.

Will keep posting total plays though..

See you tomorrow!

PS: New Jersey is Iron dog play for monday.

Sawyer, please, keep posting them...
If somebody can't follow, will not follow.

This is a long term, so, if somebody have a good bankroll admn. and lose a good run, can miss some good opportunities.
I remember with your NBA totals last year, we miss a lot of good runs after a bad runs and you decided to stop follow during this time.

(hope you understand me....)
Thanks!

If the books have adjusted, which I was thinking as well last night, then perhaps it's time to revise NHL betting strategies. The number of favorite wins has been excessive and I wouldn't expect it to continue at the same rate. However, if it did we could start to look for value playing the opposite way on your system. Maybe we should keep an eye on how small to moderate favorites perform against your system in the next couple weeks.

I agree, I just think this is just an unlucky run....a lot of games were lost in OT or blown leads, could easily have been a positive run....i think things will turn around soon enough. We've had enough bad streaks, a good one is bound to be on it's way

Hope you continue posting picks!

GL!

Sawyer, you can post your picks NONofficially...As a comb play or a lean..And I still believe It's just a too bad run and I still believe in variance...Hope to see your picks...THX

A lot of favs winning lately. It's just a bad run. Things always even out.

Yes please keep on posting. You are not responsible for anyones losses. If we choose to tail or not, that's our own responsibility.

even with this previously unthinkable downturn, you're still + units on the season, so if everyone had sound money management, they'd be in the black. keep your head up, sawyer, you're a solid capper, one of the best, and a huge asset for this forum.

and always remember the old adage: there's no such thing as luck in the long run, but the thing is, the short run is a lot longer than you realize.

I agree with the other posters. Decision to continue posting plays is yours, but i think you should at least keep playing them yourself. There is no point to wait until they get hot again. Then you would lost during the cold streak, but miss the hot streak.
You know, statistically speaking, with the total number of plays you had last year and this year in total, there is a %11 chance that you would end up with 12 consecutive losses at some point if we assume a win rate of %45. Even at %50 win rate, the chance of happening the last couple of days would be %4. So past few days are not a surprise at all.

Obviously agree with everyone else here but you gotta do what you gotta do.
I have faith the dogs will once again be barking and think you should ride it out.
It's been a bad week..that's all. I made a bankroll of what i was willing to lose tailing your iron dogs this season and am + money and up over a nickel tailing your totals.

Keep your head up. Nobody is judging you here.

I come down on the side of wanting you to continue posting the plays. I understand your concern and you don't "owe" us anything, but I'm sure there are others like myself who commited to following you all season and it would be a big let down for us to lose out on the winners that are surely coming. Please allow the process to follow it's natural course.

As someone said, if you hold back until the winners start coming, then we miss out on the good stuff and may then have to go through another dry spell without the benfit of the win streak.

Put them out there and let the chips fall where they may. Everyone on here is responsible for their own decisions.

Finally, I would not have started following if I had known you were not going to ride out the whole season.

Thanks for all your efforts. Wish you continued good fortune and God bless us all.

Sawyer, I also encourage you to continue posting these plays throughout the entire season. Based on my experiences with the Iron Dogs last season (as well as your NBA method two years ago), I started this NHL season ready for the full ride. As has been mentioned, you owe nobody a thing. I received all of those +46 units last season, so if anything I'm the one who owes. Now, here are a couple of observations. Please read and consider these strongly:

1. If you took the most recent Iron Dogs downturn and scattered those negative units (13 or 14, I think) over the entire season, nobody would notice them. Just assign 1 negative unit to 13 or 14 different weeks across the 6-month season -- as opposed to having them bunched in this 5-day stretch -- and they're absolutely no problem. It would almost be as if they didn't happen. So, why do we often think something is "wrong" when those negative units occur is a short timespan? I don't think anything is necessarily wrong. What you're witnessing is random occurrence, variance, pure and simple. It happens in this fashion because, mathematically, it CAN happen. And many thanks to Lineshark for pointing out the probability of this type of negative run occurring. The truth is, if you flip coins long enough, a run of 2 heads and 16 tails is going to happen. We all know that. It's rare, but it will happen. Yet, over a period of 10,000 flips, the heads and tails are going to be in the 49-51 percent range.

2. I do not agree that the linesmaker has adjusted to the Iron Dogs. Seriously? No, not a chance. And here's the proof. If that were true, then wouldn't you be seeing a significant difference in Iron Dog prices this season, as opposed to last season? Yes, you definitely would! But that has NOT happened. The fact is, your average price per play last season was roughly +135. And it's the same this season. Personally, I'm running at about +132 at the moment. I keep tabs on this stuff because I want to know what my average price is at all times. If the oddsmakers had "caught on" to anything, you would see those numbers plummet, big time. Suddenly, you'd easily be looking at average Iron Dog prices of +110, at best. Sawyer, you know the parameters of the Iron Dog plays. Some oddsmaker may have an idea and may be able to guess which teams are going to be the Iron Dogs on a given day, but you are the one who really knows. Besides that, I'm quite sure there are any number of NHL capping theories that would support the opposite side of every Iron Dog play. That's true for every sport. And, in the large majority of cases, that is what keeps the lines from jumping all over the place. Thousands of cappers have different views of every single game. So, they line up on opposite sides and wait to see what occurs on the field, or ice.

3. What has occurred on the ice recently is a run of blown leads and bad beats. We've had about a month of this, with the worst of it happening the past few days. It sucks. But I can't control what happens once the puck is dropped. All I can do is watch the score change on ESPN.com or Yahoo.com and react ... or better yet, NOT react.

4. JacksonJohn made a good point the other day when he mentioned that he plays each game at 1.5 percent of bankroll and resets his bet size after each 25-percent gain. That's an excellent strategy. This downturn has definitely made me reconsider my own 2.5 percent of BR per-game bet size. True, it did work very well last season, when I never experienced more than a 6 or 7-unit drop before an immediate turnaround happened. But sometimes you have to be prepared to weather a bigger storm!

Anyway, here's hoping you at least continue to post the Iron Dogs. Either way, best of luck and thanks!

Books haven't adjusted. Dogs are still dogs. This is just the nature of hockey. Edges come and go, fluctuations are quite sharp.

The thing that bothers me about the NHL sometimes is that teams don't play very hard. A team can be behind 0-2 after the first period, and produce all of four shots in the second period. Perhaps teams are borrowing a page from the NBA, where this level of relaxing is normal during the long midseason stretch. If so, things should get crisper after the All Star break. GL.

Books havent adjusted anything to make a difference. Favorites are just winning more right now and thats the nature of the beast.
Heres the thing with sports wagering now adays in all of the sports. You have athletes making millions of dollars and alot of these athletes are now more concerned with what happens in their life outside the game. They already have the millions in the bank, so now they can be slackers and take nights off. Problem is we dont know whent hese athletes are gonna take a night off and thats one of the biggest reasons gambling is so tough to beat.
NBA players are famous for taking nights off. Maybe hockey players are finally starting to realize that they can do it also, especially agianst teams they know are probably gonna beat them anyways.

I just wanted to chime in and thank you for the work you do, Sawyer. No worries with the recent losing streak. It happens. Please, please, please continue to post. I firmly believe this will turn and we WILL get it back.

We tail you and trust you. It is our responsibility if we follow, not yours.

Thanks again.

Thanks for the winner buddy. See ya in the morning.

There ya go! Let's get 'em again Tuesday night.

Thanks for the Monday winner, Sawyer :)

Some brilliant posts up there, absolutely agree with everything said about variance.

I would also love to see the Iron Dogs posted til the end of the season. Entirely up to you, Sawyer, but we would very much appreciate it!

Devils won yesterday..It may be a start of something? I hope so..

2 Iron Dog plays for today..

Columbus +160
Dallas +150

Also, I got 3 Total Plays for today..

PHI-WAS O5½ -127
CAR-TOR O5½ -119
VAN-CBJ O5½ +103

Good luck fellas!