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Mosby


Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 676

woah love the huge card today! Best of luck!

Old Post 12-08-11 03:19 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

Pagado

Awesome and many thanks, Sawyer, just one question though. These have all qualified as plays against your filters, right? Have you had an Iron Dog card like this before, last season?

Yes. They all qualified as Iron Dog Play.

Last season, I remember some days when I had 6 plays in same day. It's first time I'm having 8 plays in same day.

Good luck!

Old Post 12-08-11 03:35 PM
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Pagodo


Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 56

Thanks for the response, Sawyer.

Eight-game card, a new record for the Iron Dogs then ;)

GL all!

Old Post 12-08-11 05:23 PM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

Won't add any other plays. That's all for today. Good luck!




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 12-08-11 06:15 PM
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MeRtO


Registered: Nov 2009
Posts: 47

GL Sawyer!

Old Post 12-09-11 12:00 AM
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littleogre


Registered: Aug 2004
Posts: 737

Columbus gives up 2 goals in the closing minutes of the 3rd. :(

Old Post 12-09-11 02:45 AM
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bigdog56


Registered: May 2006
Posts: 6

Blood Bath!!!

Old Post 12-09-11 03:50 AM
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double11
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 5893

Tough night. Like you said nights like this will happen. Guess we were lucky to get Tampa Bay. Few bad breaks. Habs blow a 3 goal lead.

Bounce back tomorrow Sawyer




Life can only be understood backwords. But it must be lived forward.

Old Post 12-09-11 04:23 AM
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dld3151
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 1119

Agreed. Nights like this are going to happen. Proper money management and focusing on the long term make them nothing more than a tiny blip on the radar. Bring on tomorrow.

Old Post 12-09-11 04:45 AM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

1-7, -5.58

Unbelieveable..

Islanders comeback from 2-0 to 2-2 but lose in OT.

Canadiens blow the 3-0 lead.

Blue Jackets blow 2-0 lead; Predators scoring 2 goals in last 1:36!

Crazy..

Unlucky night for us..Iron Dogs 1-7, -5.58 Units.

Will update Iron Dogs' record at the end of week.

No luck in totals either. Just 5 goals in NY-CHI game..

NHL Totals 2011-2012 Season: 10-4, +5.20

Old Post 12-09-11 11:45 AM
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Pagodo


Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 56

It should have been a 4-4 night for a nice profit...
Ouch.

Extremely unlucky evening and hopefully it means that we're on course for an up period now with the terrible beats left behind.

Old Post 12-09-11 11:51 AM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

I hope so Pagado..

12/9 Iron Dog

One Dog play for today..



COLORADO +130

May add a total play later..See ya!

Old Post 12-09-11 02:14 PM
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30K Millionaire


Registered: Dec 2010
Posts: 311

My butthole hurts from that raping last night. Go Colorado!

Old Post 12-09-11 03:49 PM
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brainick


Registered: Jun 2010
Posts: 271

GL mate!

Variance says we will be back in black..I'm following Sawyer's Iron Dogs for 2 months but It's the best day to begin following his picks..I raise my stakes %20 from now on..




love-sex-music

Old Post 12-09-11 04:00 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

Adding..



TORONTO VS WASHINGTON OVER 5½ -115

Expecting a score like 4-3. Good luck fellas!

That's all for today. 1 Over & 1 Iron Dog play. See you tomorrow!

Agreed with you about variance. Don't ask me why but I have a good feeling about saturday. We're due for a great weekend.

Good luck!

Old Post 12-09-11 04:38 PM
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suprmn613


Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 571

I love that over...might have to tail...GL

Old Post 12-09-11 05:59 PM
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JDilla2380


Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 132

I actually was slightly luckier than some last night. I had Anaheim to lose in game 2 of a chase system of mine, so I was saved a little bit. I may post the system here, or send you some of the numbers later to help you avoid certain plays. I had Anaheim to lose as approximately 70 percent last night.
I agree with that point about variance. It may be worth considering to increase betting amounts after a cold night or two. Or decrease bets, or skip plays after a hot night or two.

Old Post 12-09-11 06:11 PM
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msandler
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 1228

each play, each night, etc, is independent. psychologically it's hard to understand and it can seem counter-intuitive because our brains are wired to find patterns even when there isn't one, but the fact is, sawyer's system has proven to be profitable and +EV in the long run and the best way to maximize your profits and limit your personal variance is to bet a flat amount on every play regardless of recent history.

Old Post 12-09-11 06:48 PM
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markinc7
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2008
Posts: 1589

msandler / Sawyer

"it's hard to understand and it can seem counter-intuitive because our brains are wired to find patterns even when there isn't one, but the fact is, sawyer's system has proven to be profitable"
"the best way to maximize your profits and limit your personal variance is to bet a flat amount on every play regardless of recent history."

Well said.

Saywer has said that before..

Last year I jumped in halfway through the season,over analized, tried to add, subtract, and lost in the end.
Thats why it's called a system.

Bad night. Yea it was.

Without bad nights, none of us would be here because we would be rich and living on a tropical island somewhere in paradise. Along with a bunch of the beauties that Sawyer dons us with.

Thanks Sawyer for your work. Keep it up. Specially the babes.LOL

GLTA




"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not."
Thomas Jefferson

Old Post 12-09-11 09:41 PM
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JDilla2380


Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 132

Yes it is profitable. Clearly. But most hot streaks are followed by a cold streak. That seems to apply to betting in any sport. It's the single most important lesson I've learned in my first 6 months of serious betting. A 3 for 4, or 4 for night will probably be followed by a 1 for 4 night on the next big play. Of course it's possible for a streak to last longer, but if a system wins at 50 percent, it's not likely to rattle off consecutive huge profits, or huge losses. I'm just speaking from what I've seen, but I didn't follow last year, so I could be completely wrong. There might have been 3 major nights I'm unaware of. I'm confident last night will be compensated for in the next week or 2.
By the way I like tonights play. I have Edmonton to lose in game 1 of a chase, so I have a little more than 1.5 units on that game.

Good luck everyone.

Old Post 12-09-11 09:49 PM
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