Phil-Phx

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posted by Realchosenone

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Good work, unfortunately if you post in HOF I can't see it :(

All you have to do is click on 'pending picks' on the linked page.

http://spaces.covers.com:80/Realchosen1

Had been pretty good until last week...
Still licking my wounds

Nice call Birdieman! Today's Over Play is Phoenix-Philadelphia!

Will post today's Iron Dog Plays in few minutes..

PHOENIX +152
COLORADI +130
WINNIPEG +150 (Not feeling confident about this one)

Today's Over Play is PHO-PHI O5½ -110

I'm expecting Phoenix to win 4-3. GL!

Leans: Bruins-1, Blues, Predators.

Colorado dropped to +115 at 5Dimes. (+116 @ Pinnacle at the moment)

You can pick Colorado +125 at TheGreek. (+120 at Bookmaker)

GL Today!

"2 Minute Warning"

You should make this your trade mark.

Other Over plays I like for today are Tampa-Pittsburgh and Columbus-Boston..but I'm not betting on these. Just Pho-Phi Over..

Good luck tonight!

loving the ads today too! GL Sawyer!

avs* lol

First off, thanks to Sawyer for posting his iron dogs on a regular basis. I saw some older posts that mention playing PL or 60min bets. As a persistent tracker of iron dogs from the beginning (almost)...lol...let me share some of the perks i gained on the way other than the plus units:)

Below are the results for last year and this year in the order of -1.5 PL wins / -1 PL pushes in regular time / OT or SO wins / OT or SO losses / +1 PL pushes in regular time /+1.5 PL losses;

last year (regular season only)
73/30/41/34/86/29

this year (up to today)
21/13/12/16/28/8

now food for thought time;

ML scenario:
i don't have last year's odds that Sawyer posted, but i have ML odds for previous regular season's last 157 iron dogs and for all of current season's iron dogs. Overall, they are slightly lower than Sawyer's posted odds. This year for instance, Sawyer's odds are +138 on the average whereas the odds i get are +135 on the average. Last year i got an average of +138 from the last 157 plays. If i use that average odd value for all of last season's plays, i have +48.28 units for previous regular season which i believe is very close to what Sawyer recorded.

60min win scenario:
Luckily i have 10 cent regular time odds for all the posted plays last season, but don't have it for this years plays. The result is; if you played regular time win for the iron dogs last year, you'd got +0.16 units for the whole regular season.

OT scenario:
Again using 10 cent regular time lines for last year; if you played "goes to OT" for all the iron dog games last regular season, you'd ended up +4.34 units before the playoffs.

+1.5 PL scenario:
Here i don't have the odds,but extrapolating from the average ML odd last year, you'd be +8.19 units playing just +1.5 PL and this year it would be +3.85 units.

In short, it seems straight ML plays have the best edge so far. So your best bet would be playing MLs just like Sawyer prefers.

Thanks for the numbers Lineshark!

+0.50 (also known as Double Chance) may win more often but tradeoff is huge. When you pick a dog +0.50 Regulation, you turn +150 dog in a -110 fav.

I think best two options are ML or DNB.

It's very easy to compare two bets.

DNB: Draw No bet also known as Regulation Time ML. If game goes OT, your bet is a push.

We would have more profit if we removed all Iron Dogs that go OT? If the answer is yes, then best way is to bet Regulation Time ML.

Not to mention, line is usually 5 or 10 cent better if you pick Regulation Time ML (DNB).

just checked the numbers, i wouldn't recommend DNB either. It is actually minus units both last year and this year. +138(2.38eu) ML on the average corresponds to approximately -125(1.8eu) DNB aka +0.5 bet.

last year regulation-time only results;
73+30=103 iron dog wins
vs
86+29=115 iron dog losses
W/L 103/115 for -125 odds = loss

this year regulation-time only results;
21+13=34 iron dog wins
vs
28+8=36 iron dog losses
W/L 34/36 for -125 odds = loss

remember this is estimation only, actual odds may slightly decrease/increase outcome.

btw, just realized that i messed the labelling for numbers, it should read ".../+1.5 PL losses / +1 PL pushes in regular time" at the end. Otherwise we would have made almost 100 units last season just playing +1.5 PL :)

Lineshark,

I think you're mistaken. If ML is profitable, DNB would be profitable as well since DNB odds are even better then ML odds. DNB cannot be minus.

Will look thru last season's thread when I got some time.

DNB (60 Mins ML) and +0.50 are different bets.

DNB is Draw no bet. DNB odds are 5 or 10 cent higher then Moneyline. When game goes OT, your bet is voided.

For example, Phoenix ML is +135 at the moment while Phoenix DNB is +145.

DNB: 1st 60 Min ML (Your bet is push if game goes OT)

This bet is available at 5Dimes & Pinnacle.

I believe the +0.5 is around 65-35 so far this year. Might be off by a game or two but it gives us an idea.

Thanks again for the card, got solid prices tonight, Avs @ +122, Coyotes @ +140, a bit lighter on the Jets @ +144, was just wondering about Winnipeg, what was the reason for your hesitation over that pick?

Sawyer, you're right. i mixed DNB and +0.5.

with average odds of -125, +0.5 gave +27.40 units last year
with average odds of +143, DNB gave +32.29 units last year

this year;
with average odds of -125, +0.5 gave +13.60 units so far
with average odds of +143, DNB gave +12.62 units so far

both +0.5 and DNB seems to be in league with ML. i still suggest ML though, although profits are less for ML at this point this year, last year's sample size still favors ML:)





Duby, +0.5 is 62-36 according to my numbers