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suprmn613


Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 571

Looking forward to this season!!

GL

Old Post 10-04-11 11:42 PM
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jlbvzla
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: May 2005
Posts: 2879

Good luck, Sawyer

Old Post 10-04-11 11:52 PM
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dld3151
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 1119

Heritage lines

Sawyer, your mailbox is full. I'm new at Heritage and haven't been checking NHL preseason lines. But, baseball money lines are 10 cents. I'm guessing they'll be the same for pucks.

Old Post 10-05-11 08:14 AM
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SharpHockey
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2009
Posts: 644

GL, Sawyer!

Old Post 10-05-11 09:26 AM
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hookem22
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1878

Can't wait!




SIMPLE HOME CHASE-RECORDS

2007-After the All-Star Break (39-5) No units kept.
2008-May-August (85-13 +44 Units)
2009-May-August (42-9 +8.29 units)
2009-May-August "AFC" (16-1 +14.50 units)
2010 SHC+AFC (51-11 +21.68 units)
2011 SHC+AFC (31-4 +21.24 units)

Simple Home Chase Filters-Based on the start of the series.
1. Home team is .500 or better at home.
2. Home team is at least 5-5 last 10 games.
3. Visitor is .500 or less on the road.
4. Home team must lose first game.
5. For 4 game sets, home team must lose first 2 games.

*2009 Added Filter-The home team must be the favorite to be a chase. If game 1 of the chase is lost and the home team is a dog for game 2, then the chase is abandoned and we take the one game loss.

*2010 Added Filter-No chase on game 1 if the line is above -250. Not worth the risk.
**2010 No Interleague chases.

Old Post 10-05-11 01:48 PM
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Jinx
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 1353

been waiting for this, GL

Old Post 10-05-11 04:24 PM
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oilcountry99


Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 2

4658 units??? it appears your unit value is $100. Are you saying you made $465,800 in 2010-2011. Or did you make 46.58 units or $4658. Please clarify. I'm assuming its that latter. Units and $ are two different things.

Regardless you were very profitable keep it up this season!

Old Post 10-05-11 05:01 PM
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qs185
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 1866

"Units and $ are two different things."

When you are flat betting, which he stated, and betting 100 units a game, which he stated, then units and dollars are EXACTLY the same thing (going on the presumption that since you stated it as $4658 that you would prefer to think of it as dollars instead of units).

If you prefer to think of it as 1 unit a game and 46.58 units instead of 100 units a game and 4658 units, that's fine, but it's EXACTLY the same thing.

Old Post 10-05-11 05:29 PM
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oilcountry99


Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 2

I missed that he was risking 100 UNITS per play. In that case what you're saying is correct.

Sawyer equates 1 unit as 1 dollar. I get it.

Just not used to seeing units mentioned in this form. It's a little decieving when one states they are up 4658 units because that means different values for different bettors based on your unit size. If I'm a $10 per unit better I would think Sawyer would have made me $46,580.

Anyway hopefully he can make even more this year.

Old Post 10-05-11 05:44 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

Thanks for explanation Bart ;)

Bart is correct. Units and $ are two different things.

I was betting 100 Units each play last year but my stake was 250$. (I was betting 250$ each play)

I increased my stakes a little bit this season..but still every play will be for 1 unit.

I think 100 Unit thing makes things a little bit confusing. Maybe I better use "1 unit each play system" this season. Therefore, according to this stake system, last year's record is +46.58 Units.

I wish everyone a profitable season. Let's rock!

I like to talk about Money Management. Just wanted to share some advice.

Will post a FAQ today. Stay tuned..

Old Post 10-05-11 06:56 PM
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brainick


Registered: Jun 2010
Posts: 271

Good luck buddy..




love-sex-music

Old Post 10-05-11 08:34 PM
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jcpicos


Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 13

good luck

Old Post 10-05-11 08:57 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

Iron Dogs FAQ



I don't rate my plays. All plays are for 1 Unit

I don't rate my plays like *5 Unit, *30 Unit, *1000 Dime Play Lock Of The Month or *1000000 Unit Super Ultra Lock Play of Century etc. All plays are for 1 unit.

How much you should bet each game?

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. You should always stay in control. You can risk %5 of your bankroll if you're dealing with favs but if you're betting dogs, you should be more conservative. We can't expect a high winning percentage over the long haul since we're betting dogs.

%3 is a very good number. If your bankroll is short, you can use %4 as well.

Make it %2 or %2.5 if your bankroll is large. (10k+)

We're betting dogs here so you should not expect a high winning percentage.

When you post your plays?

Usually between 8:00-11:30 AM, US Time, Eastern.

What's your goal this season?

We should be realistic. I'll be happy if I can make +6 or +7 Units every month. Even +5 units/month is good in my opinion.

Made +46.58 Units (1 Unit each play) last year. My goal is +50 Units this season..

Why dogs?

Because dogs are way to go in hockey! If you risk 100$ on a -170 favourite, your net profit will be 59$ if they win. But if you bet 100$ on a +160 underdog, your net profit will be 160$! It's almost x3!

Of course, -170 favourite is more likely to win..but not that much! Favourites are usually overpriced in hockey. Betting public enjoy betting on favourites since favourites are more likely to win but winning percentage don't mean a thing in hockey betting since it's a Moneyline sport.

Winning percentage doesn't matter, what matters is Total Profit you made over the long haul. Remember, You can lose money even with a %60 winning percentage..if you're laying chalk.

You can make very nice profit if you're betting dogs..even with a %45-46 winning percentage..



If you're interested in hockey handicapping, here's some advices for ya!

1. Never bet on heavy favourites, Never! Betting anything over -200 is a deadly sin.

2. Don't give too much credit to home ice advantage. In hockey betting, Home advantage is usually overrated by betting public.

3. Upsets happen in hockey but you can turn this situation to your advantage if you're a savy bettor. Even Detroit Red Wings can lose at Joe versus Blue Jackets by 3! Edmonton Oilers can beat Nashville 4-0 on the road. It happens..Therefore, Focus on dogs! Look for value!

Old Post 10-05-11 08:58 PM
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dld3151
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 1119

Heritage lines update

Sawyer, I was wrong. 20-cent NHL money lines.

Old Post 10-05-11 09:07 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7093

Money Management



1. Always bet what you can afford to lose. Stick with flat betting. I'm not against "Unit Stake System" if range is narrow but if there's a dramatical difference between your units (like *1 Unit, *20 Unit, *50 Unit), it may cause problems over the long haul. I'm a strong believer in flat betting.

2. Increase your stakes as your bankroll grows. Don't reduce your stakes when your bankroll decreased. Let's say your bankroll is 2000 and you're betting %3 each play, 60$. If your bankroll is down to 1700, still bet 60$.

3. Stay away from parlays. Stick with single betting.

4. Shopping for best lines!

5. Patience is very important..

6. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline! Bet like a robot!

7. Don't go wild about one play. Actually, every play is very unimportant as alone. We will bet approximately 300-400 games/season. What if we lose 1 or 2 game? It doesn't really matter..

8. Don't keep your record daily. Always think over the long haul. Like a month. If you lost 120$ today, you can think, Damn, I'm down -120$ today..but hey maybe you're +1200$ up so far this month? or +240$ so far this week?

9. 5Dimes' Reduced Juice program is great. The only downside is limits. Use 5Dimes 'til they show you the door..

10. If you feel depressed after a loss, probably you're betting too much. Everybody has a comfortable zone. Reduce your stakes if you're feeling that way. You have to control your emotions or you can go TILT!

I wish everyone a profitable season. Good luck!

Old Post 10-05-11 09:13 PM
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Illini45


Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 141

thanks for this

will be following this year for sure

Old Post 10-05-11 10:43 PM
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jcpicos


Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 13

sawyer ,how do you chose your dogs ??

Old Post 10-05-11 10:56 PM
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nghia1973


Registered: Apr 2008
Posts: 47

Looking forward to your dogs this season...BOL

Old Post 10-05-11 11:06 PM
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fuzzymath


Registered: Nov 2009
Posts: 336

I think he looks for the sleeping dogs. Best of luck this year Sawyer

Old Post 10-05-11 11:28 PM
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finboski


Registered: Dec 2004
Posts: 24

great to see your back this season. good luck!

Old Post 10-06-11 04:41 AM
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