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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 13-3 Over vs. conference opponents
Cleveland: 3-11 ATS with a line of +3 to -3

Indianapolis at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 30-15 Over off BB home games
NY Jets: 15-4 ATS after playing on MNF

Kansas City at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 8-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 1-8 ATS off BB losses

Oakland at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 22-10 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
Atlanta: 3-12 ATS at home off 3+ wins

Dallas at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 0-7 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Baltimore: 7-0 ATS at home off a road win by 3 points or less

Detroit at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 6-0 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS vs. NFC North opponents

St. Louis at Miami, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 10-2 ATS off BB division wins
Miami: 8-20 ATS at home off a SU win as an underdog

New England at Seattle, 4:05 ET
New England: 6-0 ATS away off 3+ Overs
Seattle: 13-4 Over after allowing 200 or less total yards

Buffalo at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Buffalo: 16-5 ATS away after allowing 35+ points
Arizona: 7-0 Over at home after winning 4 of their last 5 games

Minnesota at Washington, 4:25 ET
Minnesota: 1-6 ATS off a home win
Washington: 27-13 Under vs. NFC North opponents

NY Giants at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS off a win by 10+ points
San Francisco: 12-4 Under off a home game

(TC) Green Bay at Houston, 8:30 ET NBC
Green Bay: 15-5 ATS off a road game
Houston: 8-1 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points


Monday, October 15, 2012

(TC) Denver at San Diego, 8:40 ET ESPN
Denver: 15-6 Over off a loss
San Diego: 1-8 ATS off an Over


(TC) = Time Change




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 07:03 AM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Sunday, October 14

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. PHILADELPHIA
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. MIAMI
St. Louis is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games on the road
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 20 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NY JETS
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
NY Jets are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. ATLANTA
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati

4:05 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 7 games on the road
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

4:05 PM
BUFFALO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Buffalo

4:15 PM
MINNESOTA vs. WASHINGTON
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
NY Giants are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing NY Giants
San Francisco is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games

8:20 PM
GREEN BAY vs. HOUSTON
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Green Bay's last 21 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home


Monday, October 15

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Diego's last 14 games at home




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 07:06 AM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Sunday's Games
Bengals (3-2) @ Browns (0-5)—First rematch of young season; Cleveland (+6.5) lost 34-27 at Cincy in Week 2, their 8th loss in last nine series games- Bengals ran punt back for TD, but were outgained 439-375, and Dalton was sacked six times. Four of last seven series games were decided by 3 or less points. Bengals won two of three on road this year, scoring 38-27 points in wins at Redskins/Jaguars- they’re 3-1-1 as road favorites since ’10, after covering only two of previous 10 in that role. Browns jumped out to quick 14-0 lead in Swamp last week, but gave up 502 TY (243 RY/259 PY) in 41-27 loss to Giants, fourth game in row they’ve allowed 23+ points. Bengals scored 27+ points in their three wins, 13 in both losses. Home dogs are 5-5 in divisional play this season; 5-0 in AFC, 0-5 in NFC.

Colts (2-2) @ Jets (2-3)—Indy played with great emotion last week for coach Pagano (leukemia), rallying from down 21-3 at half to upset Packers and even record; this is their first road game since 41-21 (+9.5) loss at Chicago in season opener- Colts’ last three games were all decided by 5 or less points. Dysfunctional Jets need to define roles for their QBs, to reduce confusion; they’re on short week here, after Monday night home loss. Jets scored 23+ points in both wins, 10-0-17 in losses- their overrated defense allowed 185-245-169 rushing yards in last three games. Rookie QB Luck isn’t playing like; Colts converted 25 of last 55 (45.5%) third down plays. Teams are 3-3 since they’ve no longer been division rivals, with last two meetings in playoffs. Three of last four Jet games stayed under total.

Chiefs (1-4) @ Buccaneers (1-3)—Quinn has 3-9 career W-L record as NFL starter, gets first start for Chiefs here, vs Bucs’ squad that lost last three games, all by 7 or less points. KC held Ravens without TD last week after allowing 34 ppg in first four games, but Cassel’s goal line fumble killed one drive and proved fatal in difficult 9-6 loss that had some idiots cheering when Cassel got hurt (head). Unsure Quinn has weaponry to exploit Buc defense that allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in three of its four games. Keep in mind Chiefs were down 24-6 in Superdome in their only win. Underdogs covered all four Tampa bay games. NFC South home favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-division games; AFC West road teams are 1-5. Tampa won four of last five post-bye games, covered five of last six.

Raiders (1-3) @ Falcons (5-0)—Oakland is 0-9 vs spread in last nine post-bye games, with four of last five post-bye losses by 14+ points; they allowed 35-31-37 points in last three games, giving up TD on first drive in all three games. Raiders lost 34-13/37-6 in their two road games, giving up nine TDs on 21 drives, despite being even in turnovers. Oakland hasn’t picked off a pass yet this year. Falcons won six of last eight pre-bye games, covered seven of last eight; they’re 3-1 as a favorite this year, winning both home games (27-21 vs Denver/30-28 vs Carolina). AFC West unon-divisional underdogs are 3-6 vs spread, 1-4 on road. Atlanta is 7-5 in series, 3-3 here, Well-coached Falcons have 35-13 scoring edge on first drive of each half this season. With last three series games all decided by 24+ points.

Cowboys (2-2) @ Ravens (4-1)—Baltimore’s struggles last week could’ve been connected to knowing former DC Pagano is ill; he worked for Ravens for last four years; since 2003, Ravens are 27-10-2 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites, but three of their last four games this year were decided by 3 or less points. Dallas covered 15 of last 20 post-bye games (4-2 as underdog), but lost 34-27/20-16 last two years; Pokes lost two of last three games, scoring 13.7 ppg while running ball for just 42.7 ypg, while giving up two defensive TDs and one on a blocked punt. Ravens won last four series games by average score of 27-12; last Dallas series win was against old Browns in ’91. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread this season; AFC North favorites are 1-6. Cowboys covered seven of last 11 as a road underdog.

Lions (1-3) @ Eagles (3-2)—Detroit allowed four special teams TDs in last two games, bad news for team that employs two special teams coaches. Four of five Philly games been decided by 1 or 2 points; over last two years, Vick has nine red zone turnovers; no one else has more than five, and it cost them a win at Heinz last week. Eagles won last six games in this series, scoring 121 points in last three meetings, but 14 giveaways in five games this year is red flag- -they beat Giants in only game without TO. Lions lost three of last four post-bye games, are 3-5 vs spread in last eight tries as post-bye underdog- they’re 0-6 vs spread in last six road games, overall. Philly OC Mornhinweg went 5-27 as Lions’ HC in 2001-02. Four of five Eagle games stayed under total. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-7 against the spread.

Rams (3-2) @ Dolphins (2-3)—St Louis coach Fisher had choice of these two jobs last winter, made right call, but sure Miami is happy with Philbin, too, since Fish staying competitive with rookie QB- their last two losses were both in OT. Rams are 2-0 vs rookie QBs (RGIII/Wilson) this year, but both of those games were in dome; they lost 23-6 at Chicago in only outdoor action so far this season, and lost late at Detroit, 27-23, in only other road game. Since ’06, Rams are 14-9-1 vs spread in game following a win. Shaky OL has hindered Ram offense; they’ve run ball for only 68.5 ypg in two road game- they’ll need to run ball better with best WR Amendola (collarbone) out for two months. Fish won nine of 11 in this seldom-played series; Rams are 1-4 at Miami, with only win coming in first visit 36 years ago. Miami is 20-50 vs spread in last 70 home games (1-1 in ’12).

Patriots (4-1) @ Seahawks (3-2)—Pete Carroll was Pats’ coach before Belichick; big egos involved here, this should be good game. Can Seattle crowd disrupt NE no-huddle offense, which ran 321 plays in last four games (awful lot for NFL team)? Patriots scored 37.7 ppg in last three games (14 TDs on 39 drives); they’re 2-1 on road, scoring 38.7 ppg, and are Hawks scored 16 or less points in four of five games, all four of which were decided by 6 or less points; Seattle won its two home games, jumping on Dallas early with special teams play, then lucking out on last second Hail Mary TD vs Packers. Patriots are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 games as non-divisional road favorite. Seahawks covered 12 of last 20 tries as a home dog. All five Seattle games stayed under total; last three Patriot games went over.

Bills (2-3) @ Cardinals (4-1)—Interesting to see how Redbirds rebound after 17-3 loss in St Louis; Kolb has been sacked 17 times in last two games, and with RB Williams out for year, not sure if Arizona can exploit Buffalo defense that allowed 558 rushing yards (7.2 ypc) in last two games (90 points in last six quarters). Bills allowed 45+ in three losses, by 20-24-42 points; they’ve allowed 17-14 in their wins. Ram loss was first time this year Cardinals scored less than 20 points- they’ve had three extra days to prep since that Thursday loss, while Bills are out west for second week in row. Underdogs are 5-0 vs spread in Arizona games this year; Redbirds are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine tries as non-divisional home favorites. AFC East teams are 9-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 3-3 as road dogs. NFC West teams are 10-3, 3-2 as favorites.

Vikings (4-1) @ Redskins (2-3)— Washington fired its kicker this week after losing its 8th straight home game; he missed 31-yarders two games in row, so it was justified, but they’re unsure if RGIII (concussion) will play and even if he does, they’ve lost three of last four games, with losses to Rams/Bengals, so spunky Minnesota will be formidable foe, seeing as they find ways to win (won at Detroit without scoring an offensive TD). Home team lost last four series games; Vikings won last three visits here (17-13/33-26 last two years)- they’ve turned ball over only six times in five games, as 2nd year QB Ponder has managed games well. Minnesota has run ball for 149.3 yards/game the last three weeks, including 146 against the 49ers, so they’re hot team right now. Four of five Washington games went over total; last four Minnesota games stayed under.

Giants (3-2) @ 49ers (4-1)—Niners lost four of last five games to Big Blue, including OT loss in NFC title game LY, so this shot at revenge was circled on calendar when schedule came out in spring. Giants lost five of last seven visits here (two of last four were playoff games). 49ers crushed last two opponents by combined score of 79-3, running ball for 556 yards (6.8 ypc), but they also lost to Vikings and their other two wins are by 8 points each. Under Harbaugh, Niners are 9-0 vs spread as home favorites, 10-4-1 after a win; they’re +5 in turnovers, making them +33 in last 21 regular season games. Giants are 6-2 in last eight tries as a road underdog; they scored 17 points in both their losses, scored 41-36-41 points in wins (vs three weak sisters) despite falling behind early vs both Tampa/Cleveland. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread.

Green Bay (2-3) @ Houston (5-0)—Pack been off-kilter all year; they’ve yet to score on opening drive of game, gaining just 14.2 yards/drive, and they’ve been in wrong place at wrong time, getting hosed by replacement refs in Seattle, being in Indy the week Colts’ head coach became ill, which elicited an emotional effort by home team. Still, blowing a 21-3 halftime lead is a red flag; they lose this game, and they’re 2-4. Texans came out of blocks in last two games and had TD drives of 77-85 yards; they’re loaded on offense, but seem cautious about using some of those weapons. Short week for Texans after they played not-to-lose in 23-17 win at Swamp; loss of star LB Cushing for year (ACL) is going to hurt. Road team won both series games by a FG. Houston has waxed two lesser foes at home, 30-10/38-14, but this isn’t a lesser opponent.


Monday's Game
Broncos (2-3) @ Chargers (3-2)—Network TV’s fascination with Peyton Manning has Denver playing schedule frontloaded with tough games; they’ve lost three of last four games, but three losses came to teams ranked in top four in league. Winner of this game and rematch in five week goes long way towards taking AFC West title. Broncos lost 27-21 in Atlanta, 31-21 in Foxboro, but you get feeling Manning is feeling more comfortable with receivers. San Diego won nine of last 12 series games and four of last five, with last three decided by 5 or less points, but Denver won two of last three visits here. Chargers got hosed by officials in Superdome Sunday night; they’ve turned ball over six times in two losses (-4), twice in three wins (+6)- they were 7-24 on 3rd down last two games, after going 20-41 in first three. Divisional home favorites are 6-6 vs spread so far this season.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 07:09 AM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Giants at 49ers: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The San Francisco 49ers will be seeking revenge when they host the New York Giants on Sunday. San Francisco dropped a 20-17 overtime decision at home to New York in last season's NFL Championship game as Kyle Williams muffed two late punts, including one in the extra session that led to the Giants' game-winning field goal. The 49ers have been unstoppable since losing to Minnesota in Week 3, outscoring their opponents 79-3 in two victories.

The Giants, who rebounded from an early 14-0 deficit to trounce Cleveland 41-27 last Sunday, are going for their fourth win in five regular-season meetings with San Francisco. New York could be facing a pair of former teammates in running back Brandon Jacobs and wide receiver Mario Manningham, who both were allowed to leave as free agents. Jacobs, however, is questionable to make his 49ers debut due to a knee injury he suffered during the preseason.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: 49ers -6.5, O/U 45.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-2): Quarterback Eli Manning has passed for at least 200 yards in 24 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history. New York ranks second in the league with an average of 30.4 points. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw and wide receiver Victor Cruz became the first teammates to run for 200 yards and haul in three touchdown passes in a game since 1960. The Giants' defense has struggled, allowing an average of 22.2 points.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-1): San Francisco is tied for third in the league in scoring as it is averaging 29.8 points per game. It became the first team in NFL history to record 300 yards both passing and rushing in last Sunday's 45-3 rout of Buffalo. The 49ers gained a franchise-record 621 yards in the triumph. Quarterback Alex Smith suffered a sprained middle finger against the Bills but insists it won't affect him versus New York. San Francisco has allowed only one 100-yard rusher in its last 43 contests.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four road games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The home team has won each of the last three meetings and four of the last five.

2. New York has scored at least 36 points in each of its three wins while notching 17 in each of its two losses.

3. San Francisco has allowed a league-low 13.6 points per game this season.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 07:11 AM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football: Packers at Texans
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Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans (-3.5, 47.5)

Even while maintaining their spotless record to open the season, the Houston Texans suffered a significant loss Monday night. They'll look to keep rolling without one of their top defenders as they welcome the high-octane Green Bay Packers to town Sunday evening. Houston will be without the services of Brian Cushing for the remainder of the season after the All-Pro linebacker suffered a torn knee ligament in Monday's narrow victory over the New York Jets.

Cushing's absence will provide the Texans with their stiffest test of the season, as they face a Packers team off to a miserable start but still capable of burning opposing defenses. Green Bay squandered an 18-point lead over the weekend, dropping a 30-27 decision to the host Indianapolis Colts. Aaron Rodgers appears to be rounding into form - having thrown seven touchdowns over his last two games - but the running game is now in limbo following a serious foot injury to primary back Cedric Benson.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Texans -3.5, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-3): Benson was placed on IR but given the "designated to return" tag, meaning he is eligible to come back in Week 14. Head coach Mike McCarthy believes Benson will return at some point during the season, but in the meantime the Packers will go with the "hot hand." Alex Green is expected to get the bulk of the carries against the Texans, with James Starks also seeing action. Wide receiver Greg Jennings did not practice Wednesday and is expected to miss this week's game with a groin ailment.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (5-0): Cushing doesn't believe his season-ending injury has derailed the Texans' title aspirations. "WE are STILL winning THIS year's Super Bowl," he posted on his Facebook page. Nevertheless, his absence will put more pressure on a defense led by standout defensive lineman J.J. Watt, who leads the NFL with a whopping 8.5 sacks through the first five games of the season. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Packers offensive line that has surrendered 21 sacks so far, second-most in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.
* Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Packers’ last seven games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Texans have been far more effective at protecting the quarterback than Green Bay, allowing a league-low three sacks to date.

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson caught eight passes for 119 yards and a score in Week 1, but has just nine total receptions in four games since.

3. Packers TE Jermichael Finley (shoulder) isn't expected to practice until at least Friday - if at all - and will likely be a game-time decision.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 07:13 AM
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wildcat76
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 4990

Accu Score

AccuScore - Analyst: Week 6 NFL PIcks

This has been an odd season to say the least. However, our analyst is working hard to pick winners. Last weekend, our analyst went 2-2, so, now his record is at 6-5-2. After 5 weeks, he’s keeping his profits positive and gearing up for a big-time winning weekend. This week he’s got 3 new picks. 2 picks are for members only and 1 is free for everyone, so if you want to come along for the winnings, start following along. This is usually about the time our analyst gets on fire!
NFL Week 6 Free Picks

San Diego Chargers -1 vs. Denver Broncos
So far this season, AccuScore has gone a solid 14-9 picking AFC games, and 3-1 picking San Diego games against the spread. The computer projects the Chargers as solid favorites at home favoring the bolts by four points. San Diego wins outright more than 60 percent of the time, and teams rarely win by a single point. That is less likely to happen as both teams should put up points with the game likely played in the high 20s to low 30s. The Chargers actually win by double digits in a third of simulations, twice as often as the Broncos.

San Diego vs. Denver Over 49.5 Points

The computer has gone a combined 7-3 picking totals in game involving either of these teams. The Over occurs in over 60 percent of simulations with the average total points being 53. Both Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers project for nearly 280 passing yards which should translate into plenty of points.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Cleveland Browns
Here is another AFC match-up which the Bengals win 57 percent of the time in simulations. The Browns legitimately are one of the worst teams in the NFL with quarterback Brandon Weeden completing just 55 percent of his passing with 5 touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions. The Bengals already won the first match-up between these two teams with the Browns only cutting the deficit to seven by kicking a field goal with just 20 seconds left. The computer has gone 3-1 picking the Bengals ATS this season, and it favors Cincy by 3.

Old Post 10-14-12 04:21 PM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL betting weather report: Wet and windy Week 6

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 6 of the NFL season:

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 44.5)

The forecast for M&T Bank Stadium is calling for temperatures in the high 60s and winds blowing SSW – from sideline to sideline – at 13 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1, 42.5)

It will be a windy Battle of Ohio at Cleveland Browns Stadium, with winds expected to reach speeds of 20 mph, blowing SSW from corner to corner. Temperatures will climb into the low 70s later in the game with a 59 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon.

St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins (-4.5, 37.5)

There is a 40 percent chance of rain, turning into thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s and winds are expected to blow ENE at 14 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3.5, 44)

Winds will blow SW, across the field at MetLife Stadium, at speeds of 13 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s with a 24 percent chance of showers.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5, 44)

Rain is in the forecast for Seattle – surprise – with a 96 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures in the mid 60s in CenturyLink Field.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 45.5)

The winds in the Bay Area are expected to blow west, from sideline to sideline, at speeds of 13 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 60s.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (Pick)

Winds are expected to blow SSW at 13 mph before settling down later in the evening. Temperatures will be in the high 60s.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 04:45 PM
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Handicapping the Buffalo Bills in Week 6

On the surface things don’t appear all that bad for the Buffalo Bills. They sit at 2-3, just a game out and tied with the Jets and Dolphins in a jumbled AFC East. Two early losses by the Patriots have prevented New England from establishing any kind of separation in the division.

But the Bills are hardly feeling good about themselves out in the desert as they ready to take on the Cardinals on Sunday. And you can’t blame them after the way they’ve gotten slapped around over the last five quarters, giving up 76 points in that span and scoring only 10.

Fact is, nothing much has gone right for the Bills since they went into Cleveland in Week 3 and played pretty well on both sides of the ball. Now they have a nasty road battle against a rested, first-place Arizona team (the Cards last played a week ago Thursday) still ticked about its loss to St. Louis.

Buffalo gets 4 with an O/U of 43.5 in this one, and the Bills will be trying to run the ball behind a banged-up offensive line against an Arizona defense that is ranked fourth in the league against the run. Not good. And Buffalo fans are still trying to make sense of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who followed up a four-interception game against New England by tossing for only 115 yards (zero TDs) in the 45-3 loss to the 49ers.

The Bills would dearly love to grind clock and try to catch a late break. That means lots of (hopefully productive) carries for 1 and A1 running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller who report that they are both healthy for the first time this season.

Any value in a play on the Bills?

Covers Expert Marc Lawrence has crunched some numbers and actually sees some daylight.

“Road dogs off back-to-back ATS losses of 20 or more are 17-6 ATS against opponents off a loss,"says Lawrence. He also notes that Arizona was outgained in all four of its four victories to open the season.

And another Covers Expert, Art Aronson, mentions that Arizona has injury problems of its own.

“This is probably going to be a considered a winnable game in the Bills locker room. I don’t hate taking the points. Arizona’s offensive line got shredded by the Rams.”

“The public looks at Buffalo and wonders why they are getting only 4 points after back-to-back beatings," adds Lawrence. "But those losses came against New England and San Francisco, the two leading contenders at the moment to make it to this year's Super Bowl.”

Jackson knows that the offense has to move the chains to give the defense half a chance.

“Our defense has taken a lot of heat,” Jackson told Buffalobills.com, “but...we scored three points last week. You are not going to beat a lot of people in this league scoring three points.”




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 04:51 PM
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Top 5 NFL Trends



OAK
ATL

Under is 13-0 in OAK last 13 games in Week 6.



DAL
BAL

Under is 7-0 in DAL last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.



DEN
SD

SD are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.



OAK
ATL

Over is 6-0 in OAK last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.



NYG
SF

SF are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 04:55 PM
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Sunday's NFL Best Bets !Sunday, October 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +9.5 500
Atlanta - Under 48 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +4.5 500
Tampa Bay - Under 40 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3.5 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 44 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -2.5 500
Cleveland - Under 42 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +3.5 500
Philadelphia - Over 47.5 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET Miami -5 500
Miami - Over 37.5 500

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -3 500
Baltimore - Over 44 500

Buffalo - 4:05 PM ET Buffalo +5 500
Arizona - Under 44.5 500

New England - 4:05 PM ET New England -3.5 500
Seattle - Over 43.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:25 PM ET San Francisco -7 500
San Francisco - Over 46 500

Minnesota - 4:25 PM ET Minnesota +0 500
Washington - Under 44 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-14-12 06:31 PM
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Sunday Night Best Bets :


Green Bay - 8:20 PM ET Green Bay +3.5 500

Houston - Over 47 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-15-12 01:34 AM
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RECENT TRENDS

Denver Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC West.
Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.

San Diego Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Head to Head Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Broncos are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Favorite is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-16-12 12:49 AM
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MNF - Broncos at Chargers

October 14, 2012

The AFC West is up for grabs this season, just like it has been for the past several years as the Chargers and Broncos wrap up the Week 6 card. Denver won this division last season with an 8-8 record, but with a former MVP at the helm this season, the Broncos look to reach the .500 mark with a victory while San Diego searches for consistency.

Peyton Manning hasn't thrown an interception in the last three contests, as Denver finally faces a team that is not a part of the NFL's elite. The Texans, Falcons, and Patriots each beat the Broncos through the first five weeks of the season, but Denver owns home victories over Pittsburgh and Oakland. The task for Manning and the Broncos this week is to not only win on the highway, but improve on a 2-3 ATS mark.

The latest loss for Denver came at New England, where the Broncos were eliminated from the playoffs in January in blowout fashion. This time around felt like the same old story with Manning under center instead of Tim Tebow, as Denver trailed, 31-7 with five minutes remaining in the third quarter. However, Manning rallied the Broncos back with a pair of touchdown passes, while even getting Denver in position to cover as 6 ˝-point underdogs, but a Willis McGahee fumble in the red zone ending all hopes of the Broncos cashing as they fell, 31-21.

The Chargers return to Southern California after getting tripped up at previously winless New Orleans, 31-24 as 3 ˝-point underdogs. San Diego led by 10 points in the third quarter, but former Charger Drew Brees burned his former team with four touchdown passes, including a pair to Marques Colston in the second half to finally give the Saints a win after four defeats. Philip Rivers finally busted the 300-yard barrier for the first time this season (354), while the Chargers have cashed the 'over' in three of the last four contests.

Norv Turner's club has split a pair of home games this season against the Titans and Falcons. Luckily for San Diego, the Chargers are a perfect 3-0 inside conference play, while winning each of their first two division contests against Oakland and Kansas City. In all three victories, the Lightning Bolts have allowed less than 20 points a game, as the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs have combined for just four victories in the first six weeks of the season.

The road team grabbed each meeting last season, but both games were decided by a total of eight points. San Diego went into Denver in September and picked up a front-door cover with a late Nick Novak field goal in a 29-24 victory as 3 ˝-point favorites. Both starting running backs shined as McGahee and Ryan Mathews each logged 125 yards on the ground, but San Diego picked up its third consecutive win at Sports Authority Field.

The Tebow magic came out in the next matchup in San Diego one month later, as the Broncos erased a 10-0 deficit to force overtime and eventually beat the Chargers, 16-13 as 4 ˝-point 'dogs. Matt Prater tied the game with a field goal late in regulation, then won it with another three-pointer in the final minute of overtime. McGahee (117) and Mathews (137) each ran wild again, as the Broncos captured their second victory in three tries in Southern California.

Dating back to his days with the Colts, Manning has lost five of his previous six games to the Chargers since 2005. The lone victory (both SU and ATS) came in San Diego back in 2008, a 23-20 triumph as three-point underdogs. Two of those defeats came in the postseason, including an overtime setback in the Wild Card round of the 2009 playoffs, 23-17.

The last time the Chargers played at home on a Monday night came against these Broncos in 2010, as San Diego routed Denver, 35-14 as 9 ˝-point 'chalk.' In fact, the previous two times San Diego has played at Qualcomm Stadium under the Monday night lights, the Lightning Bolts have faced the Broncos, with Denver capturing an underdog win in 2009 to improve to 6-0 (the Broncos would win only two more games that season).

Manning was last showcased on Monday night in a Week 2 defeat at Atlanta, as the future Hall of Famer looked anything but with three interceptions in the opening quarter. The Falcons grabbed an early 20-0 advantage before holding off the Broncos, 27-21 as three-point favorites.

The Chargers are listed as one-point favorites, with several books setting the contest as a pick-em. The total sits at 47 ˝, as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Qualcomm Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-16-12 01:05 AM
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NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The AFC West steps into the primetime spotlight for Monday Night Football in Week 6. Here’s the tale of the tape for Monday’s divisional tilt between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers:

Offense

The Broncos offense has spiked with Peyton Manning under center. Denver is posting 287.2 passing yards per game – fifth in the NFL – and is averaging 27 points a contest. Receiver Demaryius Thomas is emerging as a deep threat while TE Joel Dreessen is a prime red-zone target, catching three TD passes in the past three games. The Broncos’ rushing attack is 17th in the league, rumbling for 101.2 yards per outing on the shoulders of veteran RB Willis McGahee. However, while McGahee has shown he still has plenty of tread on the tires – with two 100-plus yard games – his fourth-quarter fumble inside the red zone sunk Denver’s chances of a comeback versus New England last weekend.

The Bolts' scoring attack has regrouped since being limited to just three points in a loss to the Falcons in Week 3. San Diego QB Philip Rivers passed for a season-high 354 yards in a loss to New Orleans last week but has had trouble with turnovers in recent games. Rivers has thrown five INTs in his last four contests. Running back Ryan Mathews is beginning to get healthy after missing the start of the schedule with a collarbone injury. He rushed for 80 yards and a score in the loss to the Saints and averaged 6.7 yards per carry in that contest. Mathews is expected to start after coming off the bench the last two games.

Edge: Denver


Defense

The Broncos were bowled over by the Patriots in their loss last weekend, allowing Tom Brady and New England to pick up a team-record 35 first downs. The defense did tighten up in the second half, especially with the pass rush. Linebacker Von Miller led a disruptive front seven that sacked Brady four times. The Broncos had trouble slowing down New England’s ground game and have watched opposing rushers run for 120.2 yards a game this season. That’s allowed opponents to control the clock and keep Manning off the field. Denver ranks just 24th in time of possession this season.

The Chargers' stop unit has been stout against the run, giving up just 74 yards an outing. Opponents are averaging 3.7 yards per carry versus San Diego but those numbers are a bit skewed thanks to a porous pass defense that is allowing foes to throw for 260 yards per game – 20th in the NFL. The Bolts do have some dangerous playmakers on defense though, and have picked off six passes this season. Antoine Cason and Eric Weddle each have two INTs. San Diego has also forced seven fumbles, recovering four of those loose balls.

Edge: San Diego


Special teams

Denver ranks near the bottom of the AFC in kick returns and averages just 7.4 yards per punt return. The Broncos have countered that with solid kick coverage, allowing an NFL-low 16.2 yards per kickoff and an AFC-best 5.6 yards per punt return. Kicker Matt Prater is 7 for 7 on FG attempts, delivering on two kicks from 50-plus yards this season.

The Chargers average 25.8 yards per kick return but just 5.8 yards per punt return – an AFC low. The Bolts have held opposing special teams to 24.4 yards per kick return and 10.9 yards per punt return – ninth in the NFL. Kicker Nate Kaeding is also a perfect 7 for 7, connecting on three FGs between 40-49 yards. He has yet to attempt a FG of 50 or more yards.

Edge: Denver


Word on the street

"It's an area where we can be better in. We've got good pass rushers, we've got good cover people. We've just got to do that part a little better, eliminate some of the exposure we've had. That's an area where we feel we can significantly improve in, and right away." – Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio on stopping teams on third down.

“I anticipate our crowd to be loud. They will be a big part of how we play and they can really affect the game. When you are playing a team that is no huddle and you are asking your crowd to be loud, you have to make calls, too. We have to make our adjustments. I just want them to get that feeling of the no-huddle.” – Chargers coach Norv Turner on facing Denver’s no-huddle offense.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-16-12 01:08 AM
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NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Broncos at Chargers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+1, 48.5)

It is only Week 6 in the NFL, but Monday night's game between the Denver Broncos and host San Diego Chargers should go a long way in determining the AFC West winner.

With Oakland and Kansas City not expected to contend for the division title, San Diego has the opportunity to take a two-game lead on Denver, the defending AFC West champion and only other legitimate threat. The Chargers are 9-3 against the Broncos since quarterback Philip Rivers took the reins in 2007, while Denver quarterback Peyton Manning is 4-5 all-time against San Diego and has lost five of the last six meetings.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds are expected to blow west at 3 mph.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the Chargers as 1-point home favorites but money flipped the spread, setting the Bolts as slight home dogs. The total has been bet down from 50 to 48.5 points.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of Covers Consensus players are taking the Broncos. 64 percent is playing the over.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-3, 2-3 ATS): Denver couldn't handle Tom Brady and the Patriots' hurry-up offense and lost at New England 31-21 last week. The Patriots recorded a team-record 35 first downs and kept the Broncos' defense on the field for 35:49, a trend which must be reversed if Denver expects to win. Another issue is wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, who made nine receptions for a career-high 180 yards against the Patriots, but lost a fumble for the third straight week.

Manning faces San Diego for the first time in a Denver uniform. He has performed admirably as a Bronco - except for the first quarter in Atlanta when he threw three interceptions - while appearing 100 percent healthy following neck surgeries which forced him to miss the entire 2011 season. Denver will face the NFL's No. 5 rushing defense, and needs Willis McGahee to repeat his 117-yard rushing performance in last season's win.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-2, 3-2 ATS): San Diego led 24-14 last week before previously winless New Orleans scored the game's final 17 points to deny the Chargers a second consecutive 4-1 start. Rivers has been sacked 14 times, tied for sixth-most in the NFL, and faces two of the league's top pass rushers in Denver's Von Miller (five sacks) and Elvis Dumervil (three).

Running back Ryan Mathews is expected to regain his starting spot Monday despite not being on the field during the Chargers' final drive against the Saints. He had 80 yards rushing and 59 receiving against New Orleans. Mathews, who has shared time in the backfield with Jackie Battle and Ronnie Brown, must hang onto the ball: He has 10 fumbles (five lost) in 29 career games. The Broncos' minus-6 turnover differential could play right into the hands of an opportunistic Chargers' defense which has six interceptions and recovered four fumbles.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Broncos are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. McGahee is the only RB to rush for more than 100 yards against the Chargers in their last 12 games.

2. Mathews has rushed for more than 100 yards in his three games against Denver (127.3 average) with three touchdowns.

3. Denver snapped a four-game losing streak to San Diego with a 16-13 victory in overtime in the second meeting last season. This will be the fourth encounter on Monday Night Football since 2007 - the Chargers won the last meeting 35-10 in 2010.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-16-12 01:11 AM
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Monday, October 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Denver - 8:30 PM ET San Diego -1 500

San Diego - Over 47.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-16-12 01:17 AM
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Close Calls - Week 6

October 16, 2012

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the Week 6 NFL games. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows. Get the final quarter details in this weekly column.

Tennessee Titans (+6˝) 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (43): The Titans led 16-13 entering the fourth quarter and the game looked on pace to stay ‘under’ as well. Pittsburgh gave the favorite backers some hope as they put up 10 quick points to lead 23-16 with about eight minutes to go, taking advantage of favorable field position after an interception for the field goal. Tennessee rebounded with an 80-yard drive to tie the game with just over four minutes remaining and that score also clinched the 'over.' Pittsburgh went 53 yards on its final possession, but kicker Shaun Suisham missed a 54-yard attempt and the Titans did enough in the final minute to avoid overtime by hitting a 40-yard field goal from Rob Bironas.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) 31, Dallas Cowboys 29 (45): Dallas dominated the yardage in this game, but the Ravens led 24-13 late in the third quarter before Dallas got within four with a Dez Bryant touchdown, sitting just short of the underdog spread. Dallas added a field goal to get within one, but Baltimore answered with a long scoring drive to lead 31-23 with less than five minutes to go in the game. Surviving a few costly penalties and converting two fourth downs, Dallas would wind up in the end zone with just 32 seconds left and within two points after a failed conversion attempt. Incredibly, Dallas recovered the expected onside kick and then got a big pass interference penalty on first down. There were clock management issues, but the Cowboys did get a 51-yard kick off with a chance to win with a few seconds left. That attempt failed, but Dallas did enough to steal the cover late in this game.

Detroit Lions (+3˝) 26, Philadelphia Eagles 23 (47˝): The Eagles were in control with a 16-6 lead after a third straight Alex Henery field goal early in the fourth quarter, but Detroit backed up its reputation as a fourth quarter team. The Lions got within three points, but Philadelphia seemingly had the game back in hand by connecting on a 70-yard pass play with just over five minutes to go. Detroit proved resilient, getting a touchdown with just over three minutes to go and then forcing a Philadelphia punt. The Lions drove down the field with relative ease in the final minutes and had a few shots at the end zone before settling for overtime on a very short field goal. The Eagles got the ball first, but went backwards 21 yards on three plays and the Lions easily moved into field goal position for the win. Those on the ‘under’ could only hope for a miracle tie, as overtime essentially sealed the ‘over’.

Miami Dolphins (-5) 17, St. Louis Rams 14 (38): The Rams outgained the Dolphins, 462-192, but penalties kept costing St. Louis scoring chances and rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein missed two relatively easy field goals despite strong early season results until this game. Taking advantage of the miscues, Miami actually led 17-6 going into the fourth quarter, but the Rams put together a long scoring drive early in the final frame. The touchdown made the score, 17-12 and the Rams went for two in a critical play for those involved on the spread that floated between -3˝ and -5 throughout the week. The conversion was good and Miami did its best to burn clock on the next possession, but had to punt near midfield. The Rams moved the ball with some success in the final minute, but Sam Bradford took a sack to leave four seconds left for a long shot 66-yard attempt.

Seattle Seahawks (+4) 24, New England Patriots 23 (43): New England led 20-10 going into the fourth quarter and a third consecutive Stephen Gostkowski short field goal made it 23-10 with about nine minutes to in the game. Seattle and Russell Wilson proved they had more late game magic, cutting the deficit to six with a touchdown two minutes later and the defense forced two consecutive New England punts late in the game to get another chance. With just over a minute to go, Wilson hit Sidney Rice on a 46-yard bomb to give the Seahawks the lead as Tom Brady and the Patriots could not get a first down to extend the game against the Seattle defense. The late touchdown also changed the result for those on the total.

Denver Broncos (PK) 35, San Diego Chargers 24 (48): Peyton Manning added another chapter to his Monday night resume as San Diego dominated early with a 24-0 halftime lead. The Broncos had a strong drive to open the second half and then got the break they needed to get some momentum, capitalizing on a Philip Rivers fumble for a 65-yard touchdown. San Diego still led by 10 entering the fourth quarter, but that lead was erased with more Rivers turnovers and the Broncos took advantage of short fields for two more scores, taking the lead for the first time with just over nine minutes to go. There was plenty of time left and San Diego had opportunities, but the momentum completely had shifted and it was not a surprise when Rivers threw another interception that was returned for a touchdown to seal the game with just over two minutes to go.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-18-12 03:44 AM
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Overtime Winners

October 17, 2012

Momentum is a funny notion in sports as fans think that teams coming off a win will perform well again the next game. What about if the previous contest went to overtime? Looking back through the first six weeks of this NFL season, backing clubs that pulled off an overtime victory aren't exactly the best bet the following week.

Six games have gone past regulation this season, as the Bills are the most recent team to win in overtime, rallying past the Cardinals in Week 6. Buffalo returns home to battle Tennessee this Sunday, looking for a third victory in the favorite role this season. The Titans are coming off a last-second triumph over the Steelers as a home underdog, as Tennessee tries to win its first road game in four tries.

This season, the Vikings, Chiefs, Jets, Titans, and Cardinals all failed to cover and lost outright after capturing an overtime win. We'll look at each case one by one, starting with Minnesota, who beat Jacksonville in the season opener, while actually having to stop the Jags' offense on fourth down to knock them off in OT. The Vikings traveled to Indianapolis the following week and closed as three-point road favorites, but the Colts picked up a 23-20 win.

In Week 3, three teams went the extra mile for a win, including the first of the season for Kansas City and Tennessee. The Chiefs rallied from a 24-6 deficit at New Orleans to shock the Saints, 27-24 as nine-point underdogs. Romeo Crennel's team went home and was immediately blasted by the Chargers, 37-20 as short underdogs. The Titans held off the Lions in a wild 44-41 affair in Nashville, but couldn't follow up big play after big play in Houston the next week. The Texans crushed the Titans as 13-point favorites, 38-14, as Tennessee was never really in the game, while quarterback Jake Locker got knocked out with a shoulder injury.

The Jets couldn't build momentum off an overtime victory at Miami, as New York's anemic offense was exposed in a 34-0 home defeat to San Francisco. There seems to be barely any value in backing these overtime winners even as an underdog, as the Jets, Chiefs, and Titans all were receiving points (granted against significantly better competition), but San Diego and San Francisco were also off of double-digit losses.

The Cardinals put together a putrid performance in a Week 5 defeat as short road favorites at St. Louis, mustering just a field goal in a 17-3 defeat. Arizona had pulled off an overtime victory over Miami the previous week, but Ken Whisenhunt's club is now 0-3 ATS in the 'chalk' role.

Dating back to last season, teams off an overtime victory playing without a bye week finished 4-7 ATS. Arizona was responsible for two of those covers, including one as a 13 ˝-point underdog at Philadelphia in an outright win. In Tim Tebow's first start for the Broncos at Miami, Denver pulled off an improbable comeback for an 18-15 overtime shocker. The next week, the Broncos were steamrolled as three-point home underdogs against the Lions, 45-10.

Is this merely a coincidence or is this turning into a trend? Twelve of the last 16 overtime winners not off a bye have failed to cover the following week since the start of 2011, so you be the judge heading into Thursday and moving forward this season.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-18-12 03:50 AM
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Tech Trends - Week 7

October 17, 2012

College Football Trends

Thursday, Oct. 18 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Harbaugh 10-2-1 vs. line at home since LY, and 16-7-1 vs. spread overall. But Pete Carroll 15-5 vs. spread last 20 on board and 8-2 last 10 against points on road. Seattle "under" 5-1 this season. "Under" and slight to Seahawks, based on recent "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 21 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Titans no covers last five on road (last road cover Dec. 4, 2011 at Buffalo). Chan only 5-10 last 15 on board since mid 2011, but 2-0 as favorite TY). Chan also "over" 6-2 last 8 since late LY. Bills and "over," based on team and Chan "totals" trends.

Vikes "under" 5-2 last 7 since late 2011. Cards "under" 8-2 last 10 away. Whisenhunt 8-2 last 10 as dog. "Under" and slight to Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

Browns 5-1-1 vs. spread last 7 on road. Slight to Browns, based on team trends.

Kubiak 18-6 vs. spread last 24 on board since late 2010 (prior to GB). Ravens no covers last 4 TY and 4-8 vs. spread last 12 since late 2011. Texans, based on recent trends.

The Fisher Rams are 5-1 vs. line and 3-0 vs. spread at home this season. Rams also "under" 27-14 last 40 since late 2009. Rams and "under,", based on team and "totals" trends.

Note that underdog team is 5-0 in Carolina games TY (Panthers 0-3 as chalk but 2-0 as dog). Dallas 7-16-1 last 24 on board. Cowboys also "under" 14-8-1 since late 2010. Slight to Panthers, if dog, and "under" based on team and "totals" trends.
Skins beat G-Men twice LY and Shan has covered last three vs. Coughlin since late 2010. Shan 6-3 vs. line last 9 as dog as well. Slight to Skins, based on recent Shan trends.

Seven straight "unders" in series, though Saints "over" 16-8 overall since late in 2010 season. Saints now with two covers in a row after opening with three straight Ls. Schiano 4-1 vs. line for Bucs. Slight to "under," based on "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 21 - All games to start at 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Belichick won and covered both vs. Rex LY after 2010 playoff loss. "Overs" last five in series, Pats "over" 32-12 since late '09. "Over" and Patriots, based on 'totals" and team trends.

Note that road team has covered in first five Jag games (Jags 2-0 away, 0-3 at home vs. number). Raiders 1-4 last five as chalk. Raiders also "over" last five at Coliseum. Jags and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 21 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Steel road woes continue after Titans loss, now 0-3 SU and vs. line away TY, and 2-11 against points last 13 away from Heinz Field. Steel also "over" 3-0 away Tomlin has won and covered last four vs. Marvin Lewis since 2010. Cincy only 1-5-1 last 7 at home and "over" 14-8-1 since 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 22 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Even with Eagles win, Lions only 4-13 vs. line last 17 on board since mid 2011. Lions also "over" 26-13-2 overall since late 2009. Bears 4-1 vs. line TY including 2-0 at Soldier Field, and 9-1 vs. spread last ten games started by Jay Cutler! "Over" and Bears, based on team trends.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

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Seahawks at 49ers

October 17, 2012

For several years, the NFC West has been considered one of the weakest division in the NFL. In 2012, that’s no longer the case.

There’s a three-way tie for first place in the loop with Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona sporting 4-2 records, while St. Louis is just one game back with a 3-3 ledger.

On Thursday at Candlestick Park, the 49ers will take on the Seahawks as seven-point home favorites at most betting shops. As of Wednesday afternoon, the total was 37 ˝ for ‘over/under’ wagers. Gamblers can take Seattle (4-2 straight up, against the spread) on the money line for a plus-260 return (risk $100 to win $260).

Pete Carroll’s team pulled out another comeback win over an elite team at home last week. Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final seven minutes to lead the Seahawks to a 24-23 victory over New England as 3 ˝-point home underdogs.

Wilson found Braylon Edwards for a 10-yard scoring strike to cut the deficit to 23-17 midway through the final stanza. Then with 1:18 remaining, Wilson hit Sidney Rice with a perfectly-thrown post pattern for a 46-yard touchdown pass with 77 ticks left.

Wilson completed 16-of-27 passes for 293 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. For the season, the Wisconsin product has connected on 62.5 percent of his throws for 1,108 yards with an 8/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Marshawn Lynch leads the Seahawks in rushing with 549 yards and two TDs, averaging 4.3 yards per carry.

San Francisco (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) will be looking to bounce back from its worst performance of the season, a 26-3 loss against the Giants as a seven-point home favorite. Alex Smith threw three interceptions and may have been bothered by the injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand suffered the previous week.

The 49ers lead the NFL in rushing with an average of 176.5 yards per game, but the G-Men held them to just 70 yards on the ground.

The loss dropped Jim Harbaugh’s team to 2-1 both SU and ATS at home.

Smith has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 1,287 yards with an 8/4 TD-INT ratio. Vernon Davis has 23 catches for 340 yards and four TDs. Frank Gore leads the 49ers in rushing with 468 yards and four TDs, averaging 5.3 YPC.

San Francisco leads the NFL in total defense and is third in scoring defense, surrendering only 15.7 points per game. Seattle is fourth in total defense and second in scoring defense, allowing just 15.5 PPG.

Seattle has a 1-2 record both SU and ATS on the road this year. As a road underdog during Carroll’s three-year tenure, the Seahawks own a 7-7-2 spread record.

The 49ers were 9-0 ATS as home favorites on Harbaugh’s watch until last week’s outright loss and non-cover against the G-Men.

San Francisco OT Joe Staley (concussion) and back-up RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) are ‘questionable,’ while Seattle has a pair of defensive tackles (Jaye Howard and Clinton McDonald) that are question marks. Staley was on the practice field Tuesday but wore a non-contact jersey.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for Seattle, 3-0 in its road assignments. The ‘under’ is 3-2-1 overall for San Francisco, 1-1-1 in its home games.

San Francisco has won three in a row over Seattle both SU and ATS, including a 33-17 home win and a 19-17 triumph on the road last year. The ‘over’ is 2-1-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings.

The NFL Network will provide television coverage at 8:25 p.m. Eastern. The weather forecast calls for fair skies with temperatures in the 60s and winds of 10-15 miles per hour.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--San Francisco WR Randy Moss has made 11 receptions for 174 yards and one TD this year.

--Arizona QB Kevin Kolb is ‘out’ indefinitely with a sprained SC joint and cartilage damage to his ribs. The veteran signal caller led the Cardinals to a 4-0 start, but he has been sacked 22 times in the last three games. Kolb, who has an 8/3 TD-INT ratio, is expected to miss at least 2-3 games. John Skelton, who won the starting job in training camp only to suffer a sprained ankle in the season opener, will replace Kolb on Sunday at Minnesota. Skelton completed only 2-of-10 passes for 45 yards after replacing Kolb in last week’s 19-16 loss to Buffalo. He threw a costly interception in overtime that led to the Bills’ game-winning field goal.

--Atlanta is the NFL’s only undefeated team left after winning a 23-20 decision over Oakland thanks to Matt Bryant’s 55-yard field goal on the next-to-last play of the game. The Falcons, who are now 29-4 in 33 home games started by QB Matt Ryan, have an open date this week.

--There are four home underdogs on the Week 7 card. They are the Rams (+5.5 vs. Green Bay), Buccaneers (+3 vs. New Orleans), Panthers (+2 vs. Dallas) and Bengals (+2.5 vs. Pittsburgh).

--Highest total on the board: 50 for the Redskins at Giants.

--St. Louis owns the NFL’s best spread record at 5-1. The Bears and Bucs are both 4-1 versus the number.

--Detroit and Pittsburgh have the NFL’s worst spread records at 1-4.

--The ‘over’ is an NFL best 5-1 for the Redskins.

--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 5-1 for both the Seahawks and Cardinals.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

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