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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

4-18-18 Hockey thread, picks, info and more

Finally some playoff hockey last night. All tightly closed checked games. The Caps win in another OT game and Vegas broke out the brooms.

Sharks going for the sweep tonight

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia 7:00 PM
Tampa Bay at New Jersey 7:30 PM
Nashville at Colorado 10:00 PM
Anaheim at San Jose 10:30 PM

Old Post 04-18-18 03:28 PM
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lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

History time

3 series have the road team leading 2-1 going into tonight. So do those road teams keep rolling ? Lets see......

Pitt at Philly, TB at NJ, Preds at Avs

History says they do not roll, in all rounds they are hitting at a 46.6% clip. So lets look at the lines.

Pitt -140 (Overlay)
TB -146 (Overlay)
Preds -165 (Overlay)

History tells us to take the dogs tonight.

Flyers +127
Devils +132
Avs +149

How about the Sharks going for the sweep at home. Should be a slam dunk right ? Right ???

Well you would be correct, it hasn't happened very often in the preliminary round. Only 13 times, but the home team (Sharks) has won 9 of those for a 69.2% rate. At the Sharks current line-170, you have to win at a 63% rate to break even. Not something to note is that in all series the win rate is 63%, exactly what the break even percentage is right now. How 'bout that !!!!

So history tells up the Sharks are of even to slight value to take tonight. But of course non of my followers would ever juice like that ? Right !!!!!!!

History says take the Sharks ever so slightly. I say take the Sharks on the -1 line and take a great deal of the risk out of it.

GL

Info from who wins. Use this info as one of your capping tools, not the end all of your capping

Old Post 04-18-18 03:32 PM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

Flyers +127
Devils +132
Avs +149
Sharks -1 Ev

Old Post 04-18-18 05:17 PM
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Brutus5775
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 5364

San Jose
New Jersey
Nashville

Nbl




My Goal is to Make Money Not Gamble !!

Old Post 04-18-18 05:46 PM
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bostonshamrock
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 2636

pens -1.5 +180
devils +120
avs +135
sharks -1.5 +160

Old Post 04-18-18 11:15 PM
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Zac
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 15654

San Jose -1

Good luck.

Old Post 04-19-18 01:06 AM
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