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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest | Friday 25th September 2020
It has not been the start to the season that both Huddersfield and Nottingham Forest would have wanted, but both have an opportunity to record their first victory of the campaign on Friday night.
Huddersfield welcome the two-time European Cup winners to the John Smith’s Stadium still very much settling into life under the management of Carlos Corberan, whilst it would appear Forest are still suffering a hangover from their end of season collapse a few months ago.
So much is that hangover that there has even been a few whispers that Sabri Lamouchi could soon start to come under pressure should things not improve quickly. How serious these rumours actually are though remain to be seen, but it still doesn’t hide the fact that Forest need to get their act together.
It is perhaps more understandable in the case of the Terriers considering the managerial change and introduction of new tactics, whilst the core of Forest’s squad is largely unchanged from last season, although Matty Cash has departed for Aston Villa, and Ben Watson is now a free agent. Scott McKenna, Harry Arter and Cyrus Christie have all been added to boost the squad but may need time to settle into new surroundings.
Whilst both teams have three defeats from three matches in all competitions this season, another concerning correlating fact is that both are still to find the back of the net.
Considering Forest have the likes of Lewis Grabban and new recruit Lyle Taylor in their ranks, that is a surprise, but Huddersfield have seemingly frozen out their top scorer from last season, Karlan Ahearne-Grant, who is seemingly intent on forcing through a Premier League move before the transfer window closes.
The former Charlton man alone was responsible for 36.54% of their Championship goals from last season, and Frazier Campbell has had his fitness issues in recent weeks and new signing Danny Ward missed their last game with injury, so they’re clearly lacking firepower.
We can’t necessarily say there have been any hard luck stories for either side so far, too, certainly in relation to their two respective Championship fixtures. Albeit we are only working on a small sample size of only two matches, Forest are ranked joint-bottom in the league in relation to shots on target, and Huddersfield have only achieved one more than them. End product is clearly lacking, and confidence can’t naturally be too high considering the run of defeats, as well.
I feel something has to give on Friday night and one of these sides can win this game if they really take this by the scruff of the neck. I guess the onus will be on Huddersfield to do that considering they’re the home team, but Forest actually had the third-best away record in the Championship last season, losing only four times on the road, and interestingly all four of those setbacks came to teams who finished in the bottom-seven, including Huddersfield.
Lamouchi’s side also had the joint-most number on away draws in the league last year alongside Swansea City, so there is a natural hard to beat type of tactic that they like to deploy away from the City Ground, although the fans may be expecting them to have a real go at winning this one considering their form.
Judging Huddersfield on last season’s form too strongly isn’t so wise given the fact Jan Siewart, Danny Cowley and caretaker’s Mark Hudson and Danny Schofield managed the club at various points.
It is just too safe to make a concrete case for either side to win this game. Clearly there is more to come from both outfits, and Friday could be the magical turning point for either of them, but even the bookies is struggling to separate them on the 1×2 market.
I think I will play it a little safe on call a 0-0 Half Time Score at 6/4 (SkyBet). I can only really picture this being a bit of a slow-burner affair with confidence levels not sky high, and the behind-closed-doors element on this too I feel will contribute to a tight and relatively uneventful first-half.
Huddersfield may have lost three from three, but they’re yet to concede a goal before the 50th minute, and after Nottingham Forest started so poorly in their 2-0 home defeat to Cardiff City I can just see Lamouchi being quite content to sit back and not do anything daft, so it keeps them into the game to have more of a go in the second half.
I was tempted to back the 0-0 at full time, especially as already 12% of Championship games have finished with this score, but it is just a personal thing that I don’t like backing that outcome! Also, for the record, there hasn’t been a 0-0 draw between these two since an FA Cup meeting back in 1939!
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09-25-20 08:40 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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After a two-year stint in the Championship, West Bromwich Albion is back in the Premier League. The club gained automatic promotion by finishing second last season in the second-tier league. However, it was by the narrowest of margins, just two points ahead of Brentford and Fulham. However, life in the Premier League looks like it might be short-lived after getting blown out by a combined score of 8-2 in their first two matches.
Chelsea was perhaps the busiest team in the world in the transfer market this offseason, bringing in four high-quality players for a combined $246 million. However, Liverpool reminded the Blues that they are still the Premier League Champions on Sunday, winning 2-0 at Stamford Bridge. This new-look Chelsea team will need find some consistency sooner rather than later if they are going to contend for the Premier League title.
West Brom
For the last decade, the Magpies have been known for their defense. However, the reason they were promoted this time around was due to their offense. West Brom averaged 1.64 xG per match, which was a drastic increase from their 2018-19 xG average of 1.31 per match. The Magpies added three wingers for a combined $24 million during the transfer window, with the hope they can continue that scoring rate at this elite level.
However, they did not look competitive in their first two matches against Leicester and Everton. Expected goals tell the same story, as they were outscored 6.75 xG to 0.81 xG. Now they will have to face a top-four offense in the Premier League that averaged over 2 expected goals per match last year.
Based on historical averages, newly promoted teams have not fared well defensively in their first season. In fact, teams’ expected goals allowed per match go up 60% when transitioning from the Championship to the Premier League. It’s hard to imagine West Brom will be able to stop Chelsea’s explosive attack on Saturday.
Chelsea
Chelsea splashed a lot of cash around the transfer market this summer, bringing in Timo Werner (RB Leipzig), Hakim Ziyech (Ajax), Ben Chilwell (Leicester) and Kai Havertz (Leverkusen). All four are incredible young talents that have the potential to bolster Chelsea to the same level as Man City and Liverpool.
If Chelsea are going to challenge for the title, it’s going to be because of their offense. After the restart last season, the Blues averaged a whopping 2.24 xG per match, which was the second-best mark in the Premier League. That number should only increase with the additions they made over the offseason.
Matches involving Chelsea were high-scoring last season, totaling 3.09 xG per match. That total led to 84% of their away matches and 66% of their overall matches going over 2.5 goals
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09-26-20 05:36 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Fulham vs Aston Villa | Monday 28th September 2020, 12:45
The last time this met in a competitive league match was the 2017/18 Championship play-off final, where Tom Cairney fired Fulham into the top-flight. However, the Cottagers Premier League stay didn’t last long, after finishing 19th on 26 points. Now Scott Parker has led them back to the promised land, but he has his work cut out keeping them there.
It’s two defeats in two in the league, but they’re still in the EFL Cup and face Brentford, in a repeat of last season’s Championship play-off final, on Thursday.
Aston Villa recorded their first league win in their opening match against ten-man Sheffield United last Monday. John Egan’s early red card put the hosts in the driving seat, but Dean Smith’s side didn’t cut out all too many chances despite their man advantage.
The Villains also have EFL Cup action on Thursday, when they welcome Championship side Stoke to Villa Park. In the previous round, we saw new signing Bertrand Traoré net on his debut, while Ollie Watkins also scored from off the bench.
Reflections
Despite their 4-3 defeat at Leeds last weekend, Fulham’s data is fairly positive. If they cut out basic errors and have a better shape to them, then they’ll have a fighting chance of survival. They had an Expected Goals of 1.56xG, which was better than Leeds (1.45xG). Fulham also outshot the Yorkshire club 14-10, with six of those efforts testing Illan Meslier in the Leeds goal.
Aston Villa found it difficult to break down a stubborn Sheffield United side, who played with ten-men for over 75 minutes. It took Ezri Konsa’s header to break the deadlock after Emiliano Martinez saved a John Lundstram penalty. Dean Smith’s side cut out just 0.81xG in that game. And despite having 18 attempts at the Blades’ goal, just two found the target.
It’s no wonder that Smith has splashed the cash in forward areas with Watkins and Traoré both costing around £15m. Plus, they also spent big to tempt Matty Cash away from Nottingham Forest.
There’s plenty of pace in this Villa attack now, and with Fulham likely to take a possession-based approach then the breaks will be crucial to Villa’s chances. The data points to Fulham, but I’m not sure they’re 100% reliable at the back, and this just looks too close to call in the outrights.
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09-28-20 02:00 PM |
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