Overview of the French Open tournament:

The second major of the year is going to feel a little different in 2023, at least on the men’s side. Rafael Nadal, who has won 14 times at Roland Garros, will not be in the field this year. The 36-year-old is dealing with a hip injury that has been bothering him since the 2023 Australian Open, and he just hasn’t been able to get himself right. The Spaniard is hoping to get back to competitive tennis at some point in the near future, with an eye towards 2024 being his final season. However, another Spaniard, Carlos Alcaraz, is the favorite to win the tournament. The 20-year-old has already won two massive clay-court titles this year, and he’ll be hoping to win his first major on the dirt with Nadal on the sidelines. On the women’s side of things, Iga Swiatek is a heavy favorite to win this tournament. She’s only 21 years old, but she’s already a two-time French Open champion.

Why the French Open is popular among bettors:

Bettors love tackling all four majors, but the French Open is a different breed. There’s just something about the red clay, which forces every player in the world to dig deep to try and come up with their best stuff. It’s also great to bet on two weeks of action. Most tournaments last 7-10 days, but this is a full two weeks. And the expanded fields at majors mean that there are matches on all day.

Types of bets available for the French Open:

With Roland Garros, bettors will have the ability to bet straights, parlays and player props all throughout the tournament. There are also plenty of futures markets available, which gives you the chance to bet on things like the outright winner or the winner of a specific quarter.

Top seeds and their performance trends:

Two of the favorites on the men’s side are Alcaraz and 22-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic. Alcaraz comes into this event on the heels of one of the most embarrassing losses in tennis history. He lost to a qualifier at the Italian Open in Rome, even though the Spaniard had a 99.5% implied pre-match win probability. However, Alcaraz is still the best clay-court player in the world. And with no Nadal, he has to like his chances here. Meanwhile, Djokovic is a two-time champion at Roland Garros. But he has dealt with on-and-off injuries over the last few months, so he hasn’t quite been able to find a rhythm heading into the event. As for the women, the biggest threats to win are Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. Swiatek is the best clay-court player of the bunch, but she got a little injured in Rome last week. The other two players have also made significant strides on this surface this season, with both winning big clay-court tournaments in 2023.

Potential upsets and dark horses:

If you’re looking for some players with longer odds in this event, a few to consider are Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev, Barbora Krejcikova and Marketa Vondrousova. Ruud was a finalist at the 2022 French Open and that proves that he has the game to make a run at Roland Garros. Also, after a slow start to the 2023 season, Ruud made it to the semifinals in Rome, where he really should have beaten Holger Rune to advance to the finals. As for Zverev, the talent is undeniably there. However, he has been unable to prove that he can win big matches in his return from a lengthy ankle injury. Still, all it takes is one big one to flip that confidence. And there aren’t five players better than Zverev on this surface when he’s at the peak of his powers. Moving over to the women, Krejcikova actually won this tournament in 2021. She’s probably the fourth-best player in the world, but she comes into this event after a rocky clay-court season. But it shouldn’t surprise anybody if she gets hot at the right time. And Vondrousova has just been a force this season. The Czech is 19-8 since the start of 2023, and she is a lot better than her ranking suggests she is.

Analyzing player form and head-to-head statistics:

With this tournament, it’s imperative that you dive into the stats a bit. Not everybody can just hop on the clay and win matches. Some players are considered clay-court specialists, and you shouldn’t be surprised if some of them make deep runs at this event. Also, remember what we said about being able to move and play the baseline. If a player has struggled in their head-to-head history against an opponent on another surface, it might not matter as much here. Winning on clay is a whole different ball game. With that said, you should also look at how players performed in the leadup to this tournament. There were some big events played in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome, and those results can give you a good idea of who is playing well right now.

Factors to consider when betting on specific match types (e.g. men's singles, women's singles, doubles):

One thing to make sure to remember early on is that this tournament follows a best-of-five format for the men, like every other major does. So, if you see higher totals and spreads than you’re used to, that’s the reason why. But it’s business as usual on the women’s side, as the WTA always sticks with the best-of-three format. Another thing to remember is that the final set in majors is now decided by a 10-point tiebreaker, if needed.

Thank you, thank you.

Women's French Open betting at BetMGM


Favorites
▪️ Iga Swiatek -110
▪️ Aryna Sabalenka +600
▪️ Elena Rybakina +600

Highest Ticket%
▪️ Swiatek 46.5%
▪️ Simona Halep 5.8%
▪️ Paula Badosa 5.8%

Highest Handle%
▪️ Swiatek 74.1%
▪️ Sabalenka 4.0%
▪️ Halep 3.7%

Karolina Muchova vs. Maria Sakkari
This match feels like a trap from the oddsmakers, as Sakkari is a household name in the sport and isn’t favored to beat Muchova. But a deeper look at this matchup shows that there isn’t much that separates these players. And Muchova has actually had a lot of success against the Greek star in the past.

While Muchova is only ranked 42nd in the world right now, she has been as high as 19th in the rankings. Muchova has also been to the semifinals of a Grand Slam, which is all Sakkari has achieved to this point. Muchova also happens to be 2-1 against Sakkari in her career, with the two wins coming on clay. And one of the two wins happened to be in last year’s French Open, when Muchova came away with a straight-set win.

This matchup is a tough one for Sakkari because Muchova has the all-around baseline game to go toe to toe with her. But Muchova is also a bit more trustworthy with the ball on her racquet, so she should hold serve a bit easier than Sakkari. These slow courts won’t do Sakkari any favors with a serve that is already a bit faulty.

French Open betting at BetMGM


Favorites
▪️ Carlos Alcaraz +160
▪️ Novak Djokovic +260
▪️ Daniil Medvedev +650

Highest Ticket%
▪️ Rafael Nadal 26.3% (withdrew)
▪️ Alcaraz 20.8%
▪️ Djokovic 19.5%

Highest Handle%
▪️ Nadal 37.6%
▪️ Djokovic 23.6%
▪️ Alcaraz 21.2%

Benoit Paire vs. Cameron Norrie
This is a match that Norrie really should win, but I don’t see Paire going down without a fight. The Frenchman has long had issues keeping his cool on the court, but he has avoided massive blowups in 2023. And the reality is that his talent is undeniable, so it’s a little surprising to see this price on him. When Paire is playing his best tennis, he should be able to take it to Norrie — especially with the crowd in his corner. These fans are going to be pulling hard for him to just make this competitive, which is why I think it’s worth it to take him to win a set. Don’t be surprised if he does it early and then loses his focus, allowing the Brit to walk away with the win. But not before us cashing.

Bet: Paire To Win A Set (+100)

Brandon Nakashima vs. Denis Shapovalov
There’s a lot working against Shapovalov in this match. For starters, Nakashima beat him in four sets when the two met at Wimbledon last year. And now the two transition to clay, where Nakashima is fresh off a solid run in Lyon. Meanwhile, Shapovalov is just 1-2 in his three-clay-court matches this season. On top of that, Shapovalov recently made a coaching change, and players don’t generally see positive results from those moves overnight. So, with Nakashima having the head-to-head edge, as well as the better recent results, this just seems like a good place to back the American to pick up a win. Shapovalov should be more of a factor by the time hard-court season rolls around.

Bet: Nakashima ML (-135)

Karolina Pliskova vs. Sloane Stephens
Stephens has been showing some signs of life recently, but I still think this is a tough matchup for her. Pliskova is one of the best servers in the world, so she should be able to easily hold when the ball is on her racquet. Meanwhile, Stephens occasionally lets service games slip away, so Pliskova will have her chances to break. Also, while Stephens is a better mover between these two, the slow courts give Pliskova a shot at tracking balls down. That narrows the gap between these two on the baseline. There’s a reason Pliskova has been to the semis at Roland Garros, and I think she’ll show the world why. Of course, Stephens has been a finalist here herself. But she is just a shell of the player that was once elite in the women’s game.

Bet: Pliskova ML (-150)

Stan Wawrinka vs. Albert Ramos Vinolas
Outside of Novak Djokovic, Wawrinka is the only other player in the draw to have won the French Open in the past. But Wawrinka is now 38 years old and is no longer the player he once was. Wawrinka still has flashes here and there, but he struggles with consistency — and his fitness is no longer a strength. With that in mind, I think there’s some value in backing Ramos Vinolas as a small underdog play. The Spaniard is a ridiculous 192-162 on clay in his career, and he simply knows how to get the job done on this surface. Wawrinka also happens to be 0-4 in his last four matches against lefties, so that’s another reason he might struggle with the southpaw.

Bet: Ramos Vinolas ML (+235 - 0.5 units)

Nice picks, let's get Ramos now.

Fabio Fognini vs. Jason Kubler (Scheduled: 5:00 a.m. ET)
Fognini was fortunate to draw Felix Auger-Aliassime as his first-round opponent. That might sound odd to say with the Canadian being one of the best young players on tour, but he wasn’t healthy coming into this event. Now, Fognini takes over Auger-Aliassime’s draw after a 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 win over the 22-year-old. And the Italian really should take advantage by defeating Jason Kubler.

Kubler needed five grueling sets to win his opening-round match, and that should have him behind the eight-ball here. Kubler is already going to be at a disadvantage in longer rallies from the baseline, and that will be even harder to overcome if he doesn’t have his legs here. Fognini also comes into this match after having won four of his last six. This is a guy that can play elite-level tennis when he is locked in, and he generally tends to bring it on the red clay.

Kubler’s serve can be a legitimate weapon out there, but this tournament has been playing slow thus far. That should allow Fognini to hang around in Kubler’s service games, much like he did against Auger-Aliassime. That’s going to make it very difficult for the Australian to compete in this match, making it hard not to love Fognini to cover a small 2.5-game spread.

Bet: Fognini -2.5 Games (-130)

Matteo Arnaldi vs. Denis Shapovalov (Scheduled: 8:00 a.m. ET)
Arnaldi got off to a slow start against Daniel Elahi Galan in the first round, but he ended up coming away with a 2-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 victory. The 22-year-old is now 14-3 in his last 17 matches, with all of those coming on clay. He has been one of the most surprising players on tour, and I think he has the game to beat Shapovalov on Wednesday.

Nothing that Arnaldi does will really wow you, but he has a solid all-around game. And I think that type of steady play is going to give Shapovalov trouble. The Canadian is one of the more erratic players on tour, and he’s always going to rack up unforced errors. So, if Arnaldi can just avoid making mistakes, this should be an easy win for him. Shapovalov also happens to be coming off a tough five-set win over Brandon Nakashima, so it’s possible that fatigue factors in later in this match.

Bet: Arnaldi ML (-120)

Fognini looking good

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Alex De Minaur (Scheduled: 5:00 a.m. ET)
I was surprised when I saw that Etcheverry is an underdog in this match. The Argentine has been one of the breakout players of the 2023 clay-court season, and he’s fresh off a match in which he only needed to play for an hour against Jack Draper. Etcheverry won the first set of that one and then Draper retired with an arm injury. Now, the 23-year-old should be pretty well-rested when he takes on De Minaur, who needed nearly three hours for his win over Ilya Ivashka.

For as good of a mover as De Minaur is, the Australian is just 20-27 on clay at the ATP level. He has a winning record on every other surface, but this is the one that has given him problems. With that said, it’s a little hard to envision him beating a clay-court specialist. Etcheverry’s forehand should also be the biggest weapon in this match, and his power from the right side will keep De Minaur on his toes.

This should be something of a lengthy battle, but I expect Etcheverry’s clay-court savviness to help him prevail in the end.

Bet: Etcheverry ML (+110)