Friday, 03/24/2023 (647) SAN DIEGO ST vs. (648) ALABAMA
Favoring: Under on the total.
SAN DIEGO ST is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 67, OPPONENT 58.3 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (647) SAN DIEGO ST vs. (648) ALABAMA
Favoring: Under on the total.
SAN DIEGO ST is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 67.4, OPPONENT 59.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (649) PRINCETON vs. (650) CREIGHTON
Favoring: Under on the total.
PRINCETON is 7-0 UNDER (+7 Units) in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was PRINCETON 68, OPPONENT 60.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (649) PRINCETON vs. (650) CREIGHTON
Favoring: Under on the total.
CREIGHTON is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CREIGHTON 69.4, OPPONENT 65.4 - (Rating = 3*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (645) XAVIER vs. (646) TEXAS
Favoring: Over on the total.
XAVIER is 18-5 OVER (+12.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was XAVIER 77.8, OPPONENT 73.2 - (Rating = 3*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (645) XAVIER vs. (646) TEXAS
Favoring: Under on the total.
TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER (+7 Units) in March games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 71.9, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (647) SAN DIEGO ST vs. (648) ALABAMA
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
ALABAMA is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season.
The average score was ALABAMA 33.8, OPPONENT 30.3 - (Rating = 5*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (647) SAN DIEGO ST vs. (648) ALABAMA
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
ALABAMA is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
The average score was ALABAMA 32.8, OPPONENT 29 - (Rating = 5*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (649) PRINCETON vs. (650) CREIGHTON
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
PRINCETON is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was PRINCETON 33.8, OPPONENT 28.8 - (Rating = 3*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (643) MIAMI vs. (644) HOUSTON
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
MIAMI is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they covered the spread this season.
The average score was MIAMI 40.4, OPPONENT 35.4 - (Rating = 3*)

- Sweet 16 round is usually the end of the line for double-digit seeds, however, they have been very competitive as underdogs, going 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) in that role since 2011. (Princeton +10)

- In Sweet 16 games between teams “both not supposed to be there,” or both seeded 5 or worse, the worse seeded team is 11-6 SU and ATS (64.7%) since ’01. (Princeton +10)

- Since 2010, in Sweet 16 games involving at least one non-major conference program, UNDER the total is 22-11 (66.7%). (UNDER 140 CRE-PRI, UNDER 137 ALA-SDSU, UNDER 138 HOU-MIA, UNDER 130.5 TEN-FAU, UNDER 145.5 UCLA-GON)

HOUSTON (#1, MIDWEST) vs. MIAMI (#5-ACC)

Trends

- In their last 25 tourney games versus power conference foes, American Athletic teams are 17-8 UNDER the total (68%). (UNDER 138 HOU-MIA)

CONNECTICUT (#4, WEST) vs. ARKANSAS (#8-SEC)

CREIGHTON (#6, SOUTH) vs. PRINCETON (#15-IVY)

XAVIER (#3, MIDWEST) vs. TEXAS (#2-Big 12)

Trends

- Favorites are 28-14 ATS (66.7%) in the last 42 Big East NCAA tourney games. (Connecticut -3.5, Creighton -10, Against Xavier +4)

- In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since ’15, favorites are on a 21-8 SU and ATS (72.4%) run. (Creighton -10)

Ivy
PRINCETON (#15, SOUTH) vs. CREIGHTON (#6-Big East)

Trends

- Ivy League teams have gone 5-11 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) in their last 16 NCAA tourney games. (Princeton +10)

- Ivy League teams are on an 18-9 UNDER the total (66.7%) NCAA run, including UNDERS in all of the last 5. (UNDER 139.5 PRI-CRE)

- As underdogs of 6 points or more in the NCAA’s, Ivy League teams are now 17-3 UNDER the total (85%) after two more UNDERS this year, scoring less than 60 PPG. (UNDER 139.5 PRI-CRE)

Mountain West
SAN DIEGO ST (#5, SOUTH) vs. ALABAMA (#1-SEC)

Trends

- As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 8-37 SU and 11-31-3 ATS (26.2%) since ’01. (Against San Diego St +7.5)

- Mountain West teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAAs since 2000, 9-42 SU and 12-37-2 ATS (24.5%). (Against San Diego St +7.5)

Houston-Miami betting at
BetMGM

Houston open -7.5, no movement
▪️ 35% of bets, 38% of money on Houston

Total open 138.5, no movement
▪️ 65% of bets, 39% of money on Over

Alabama-San Diego State betting at
BetMGM


Alabama open -6.5, now -7.5
▪️ 54% of bets, 56% of money on Bama

Total open 136.5, now 137.5
▪️ 60% of bets, 56% of money on Over

#5 San Diego State: +7.5: 51% of handle, 43% of bets
#1 Alabama: -7.5: 49% of handle, 57% of bets
Total 137.5: Over 59% of handle, 67% of bets

#5 Miami: +7.5: 71% of handle, 70% of bets
#1 Houston: -7.5: 29% of handle, 30% of bets
Total 138: Over 69% of handle, 69% of bets

#15 Princeton: +10: 63% of handle, 74% of bets
#6 Creighton: -10: 37% of handle, 26% of bets
Total 140.5: Over 51% of handle, 50% of bets

#3 Xavier: +4.5: 39% of handle, 52% of bets
#2 Texas: -4.5: 61% of handle, 48% of bets
Total 149: Over 61% of handle, 45% of bets

Creighton-Princeton betting at
BetMGM


Creighton open -9.5, no movement
▪️ 41% of bets, 47% of money on Creighton

Total open 140.5, no movement
▪️ 41% of bets, 52% of money on Over

Between nail-biting finishes, epically bad beats and the largest upset in March Madness history, the 2023 NCAA Tournament has not disappointed to this point.

But all of that is behind us as college basketball bettors turn their attention to Friday’s Sweet 16 matchups.

Princeton, which plays slowly on the offensive end, is a 10-point underdog against Creighton, which helps the Tigers fit our NCAA Tournament Slow-Paced Dogs system.

This strategy takes advantage of underdogs that limit a game’s possessions and therefore make it difficult for favorites to score enough points to cover spreads, just like Princeton on Friday night.

Interestingly, 60% of tickets wagered on this spread have come in on Princeton as well, so the majority of bettors seem to like the Tigers to cover the number.

Most bet teams

1. Alabama -7.5 tickets
2. Miami (FL) +7.5
3. Princeton +9.5

Most bet teams $

1. Alabama -7.5
2. Miami (FL) +7.5
3. San Diego State +7.5

FD has had Creighton @
-(10-) all day

With an elite defense that’s athletic and long, the Aztecs can give Alabama some trouble. San Diego State ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency since the beginning of February, according to Barttorvik.com, and coach Brian Dutcher’s team excels in the areas of transition and 3-point shooting defense. The Crimson Tide wants to run and jack up 3s, so this is an intriguing stylistic matchup from that perspective.

Alabama plays fast and averages 73 possessions per game. San Diego State operates its half-court offense and averages about 65 possessions per game. The Aztecs are taking a big step up in class, however, because this is not a Mountain West opponent and it’s not Charleston or Furman, either. Brandon Miller is the best player in this tournament, and he’s probably what gets the Tide over the top in this game.

Forget the Mountain West’s losing reputation in this tournament for a moment. In the past 10 years, the Aztecs are 6-6 in NCAA play and the rest of the conference is 3-19. San Diego State has the talent to make this a competitive game to the wire, but its tendency to go through scoring droughts is a concern and probably will prove costly in this matchup.

The final spot in the Elite 8 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament will be decided on Friday night in Kansas City as Texas battles Xavier.

The Longhorns just won the Big 12 Conference Tournament in this arena (T-Mobile Center) less than two weeks ago, beating Oklahoma State, TCU and Kansas en route to the league title under interim head coach Rodney Terry.

The Longhorns overcame a late charge from Penn State in the second round and are now very live to make the Final Four in Houston next weekend.

Next up for them is Xavier, which features an elite offense. The Musketeers’ defensive issues nearly knocked them out against No. 14 seed Kennesaw State in the Round of 64, though.

The Musketeers survived that matchup to advance to the second round, where their offense destroyed Pittsburgh for 1.09 PPP and 84 points in a routine win.

Of the four matchups scheduled for Friday, this is the only one with a line under five points.

Both offenses have some advantages here. Xavier’s ability to push the pace will help it score plenty against the Longhorns defense, even if its defense also struggles to get stops.

Xavier had two good tournament offensive showings despite not getting much from transfer point guard Souley Boum in either game.

Boum shot 5-of-13 from the field in Round 1 and followed it up with a 3-for-13 showing in the win against Pittsburgh.

In a tournament where a lot of teams have struggled to adjust to the new ball and the tight rims, Xavier has posted more than 1.00 PPP in both games without Boum being efficient at all.

KenPom is projecting 71 possessions in this game, and there are some offensive advantages for the Musketeers in this matchup.

Xavier runs a ton of pick-and-roll ball screen actions and Jack Nunge is excellent as a roll man in that role. The Longhorns rank in the 17th percentile nationally at guarding the PnR roll man, per Synergy.

Texas forward Dylan Disu isn’t quite as good defending in space as opposed to being a pure rim protector.

Xavier’s offense is in the 96th percentile in PnR roll man shots, per Synergy. Nunge can do a lot more than just rim run, too. His ability to step out and space the floor can stretch Texas defensively.

The Longhorns’ defense isn’t as good at the rim as you’d think either. They rank in the 58th percentile nationally, which is above average but far from elite.

While the Musketeers have some real defensive vulnerabilities against Texas’ guards, the offense should score and stay in this game.

Texas has played at a considerably faster pace under Terry than it did under Chris Beard in the early portion of the season.

The Longhorns are more than comfortable running in transition offensively and should get plenty of good first-shot looks against Xavier’s mediocre transition defense.

Xavier will want this game to be as up-tempo as possible, even though it’s a tournament game.

The biggest advantage for Texas is the ability of its guards to penetrate into the lane. If you watched Kennesaw vs. Xavier, you saw how vulnerable Xavier’s defense is to the dribble drive from athletic guards.

This weakness was on display for Xavier at times in the Big East — but even the Big East didn’t have the same level of perimeter athleticism that the Big 12 had this season.

As a result, Texas’ guards Sir’Jabari Rice, Tyrese Hunter and Marcus Carr should be able to get to any spot on the floor that they choose and create offense from there.

My colleague Nick Giffen bet Rice over 1.5 assists at +115, for example.

Xavier’s backcourt of Boum, Colby Jones and Adam Kunkel will need to outscore Texas to stay in this game. It’s hard to see the Musketeers staying in this game otherwise.

Xavier’s lack of reliance on the 3-point shot has helped the offense in this tournament because the perimeter shooting is down across the board due to the changed balls and tighter rims.

Perimeter shooting has less of an influence on the Xavier offense. Because of that, the Musketeers have been efficient despite no one besides Kunkel knocking down open shots in the first two rounds.

Sean Miller’s offense has so many screen actions and so many playmakers on the ball that it’s tough for a defense to slow them, even a defense as good as Texas.

The pace will drive this total Over and Xavier’s efficiency will keep it in this. We’ve seen Unders all tournament thus far, but the market has overcorrected here.