DraftKings Sportsbook. “Handle” is the amount of dollars bet on a team, while “bets” are the portion of tickets written backing that university.


#7 Michigan State: -1.5: 40% of handle, 37% of bets
#3 Kansas State: +1.5: 60% of handle, 63% of bets
Total 137.5: Over 68% of handle, 63% of bets


#8 Arkansas: +4: 26% of handle, 43% of bets
#4 UConn: -4: 74% of handle, 57% of bets
Total 140: Over 75% of handle, 59% of bets


#9 Florida Atlantic: +5.5: 40% of handle, 38% of bets
#4 Tennessee: -5.5: 60% of handle, 62% of bets
Total 129.5: Under 59% of handle, 40% of bets


#3 Gonzaga: +2: 37% of handle, 47% of bets
#2 UCLA: -2: 63% of handle, 53% of bets
Total 145.5: Under 52% of handle, 45% of bets

Most bet UNDERs (tickets) Sweet 16 at
BetMGM


1. Florida Atlantic-Tennessee 129.5

2. Gonzaga-UCLA 145.5

3. Creighton-Princeton 139.5

Most bet OVERs (tickets) Sweet 16 at
BetMGM


1. Michigan State-Kansas State 137.5

2. Arkansas-UConn 140.5

3. San Diego State-Alabama 136.5

Unders dominated at 24-8 (75%) in the first round and continued that pace at 6-2 on Saturday before Overs went 6-2 on Sunday to finish 8-8 in the second round, so Unders are now 32-16 (66.7%) overall. Faves were 24-8 SU and 18-14 ATS in the first round. Faves went 10-6 SU in the second round but dogs led 9-6-1 ATS. Faves now 34-14 SU and 24-23-1 ATS so far heading into the Sweet 16.

Public teams in Sweet 16 at BetMGM


+60% tickets

67% on Princeton +9.5
64% on UConn -4.5
63% on Miami +7.5

+60% money

66% on UConn -4.5
62% on Miami +7.5

Michigan State-Kansas State betting at BetMGM


Michigan St open -1.5, no movement
▪️ 51% of bets, 54% of money on Sparty

Total open 136.5, now 138.5
▪️ 61% of bets, 57% of money on Over

UConn-Arkansas betting at BetMGM


UConn open -3.5, now -4.5
▪️ 64% of bets, 66% of money on UConn

Total open 139.5, now 140.5
▪️ 57% of bets, 49% of money on Over

Big East
CONNECTICUT (#4, WEST) vs. ARKANSAS (#8-SEC)

CREIGHTON (#6, SOUTH) vs. PRINCETON (#15-IVY)

XAVIER (#3, MIDWEST) vs. TEXAS (#2-Big 12)

Trends

- Favorites are 28-14 ATS (66.7%) in the last 42 Big East NCAA tourney games. (Connecticut -3.5, Creighton -10, Against Xavier +4)

- In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since ’15, favorites are on a 21-8 SU and ATS (72.4%) run. (Creighton -10)

Big Ten
MICHIGAN ST (#7, EAST) vs. KANSAS ST (#3-Big 12)

Trends

- Big Ten teams have gone just 5-17 ATS (22.7%) since ’15 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 and Pac 12 foes. (Against Michigan St. -2)

- In tourney games of the Sweet 16 round and later, Big Ten teams are just 27-37 SU and 24-37-3 ATS (39.3%) since ’07. (Against Michigan St -2)

Conference USA
FLA ATLANTIC (#9, EAST) vs. TENNESSEE (#4-SEC)

Trends

- Conference USA teams are just 6-16 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in the NCAA’s since ’09. (Against Fla Atlantic +5.5)

- Versus power conference schools in the NCAA tournament, Conference USA teams are just 22-38 SU and ATS (36.7%) since ’98, including 8-21 ATS (27.6%) as dogs of 4.5 points or more. (Against Fla Atlantic +5.5)

- Conference USA teams are on a brutal slide of 4-23 SU and 5-22 ATS (18.5%) as single-digit underdogs in the NCAA tournament. (Against Fla Atlantic +5.5)

- Conference USA teams seeded in the bottom half of the tournament (seeds 9 or worse) are on a 10-24 SU and 12-22 ATS (35.3%) skid. (Against Fla Atlantic +5.5)

Pac-12
UCLA (#2, WEST) vs. GONZAGA (#3-West Coast)

Trends

- Pac-12 teams are just 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) in the Sweet 16 round since ’01, including 0-2 SU and ATS in 2022. (Against UCLA -2)

SEC
ALABAMA (#1, SOUTH) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (#5-Mountain West)

ARKANSAS (#8, WEST) vs. CONNECTICUT (#4-Big East

TENNESSEE (#4, EAST) vs. FLA ATLANTIC (#9-Conference USA)

Trends

- SEC teams have been a solid wager in the Sweet 16 round, 21-11-2 ATS (65.6%) since ’03. (Alabama -7.5, Arkansas 3.5, Tennessee -5.5)

- The #4 seed and the SEC have gone UNDER the total at a 25-8-1 (75.7%) rate. (UNDER 130.5 TEN-FAU)

- Underdogs are 32-15 ATS (68.1%) in the last 47 SEC NCAA tourney games overall. (Arkansas +3.5 – Against Alabama -7.5, Tennessee -5.5)

BIG flip on the MSU line!

San Diego State vs Alabama (@ Louisville)
— San Diego State (29-6) ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #263
— Experience: #21
— Continuity: #39
— San Diego State won six in row, 12 of last 13 games.
— San Diego State is 0-2 in Sweet 16 games.
— Aztecs have #28 eFG% defense in country.
— Aztecs lost 78-74 in OT to Arkansas of SEC in November.
— San Diego State is 11-3 in games decoded by 7 or less points.
— San Diego State’s schedule, to this point: #47
— bench minutes: #31
— San Diego State’s best wins: three wins over #27 Utah State

— Alabama (31-5) ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #5
— Experience: #257
— Continuity: #280
— Alabama won five in row, nine of last ten games.
— Alabama’s five postseason wins are all by 11+ points.
— Last 25 years, Crimson Tide is 1-1 in Sweet 16 (win was in ’04)
— Alabama has #1 eFG% defense in country.
— 47.5% of Crimson Tide’s shots are 3’s (36.8% of points (#36))
— Alabama’s schedule, to this point: #10
— bench minutes: #52
— Alabama’s best win: 71-65 at #1 Houston

— Last four years, #1-seeds are 5-7 ATS in Sweet 16 games.
— Last 5+ years, favorites are 19-24 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

Miami vs Houston (@ Kansas City)
— Miami (27-7) ranked #33 by KenPom
— Tempo: #99
— Experience: #27
— Continuity: #138
— Miami won 11 of its last 13 games.
— Miami was in the Elite 8 last year.
— Canes have #23 eFG% in country.
— Canes are #60 team in country on offensive boards.
— Miami is 6-3 against top 50 teams.
— Miami’s schedule, to this point: #77
— bench minutes: #319
— Miami’s best win: 81-59 over #17 Duke

— Houston (33-3) ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #342
— Experience: #260
— Continuity: #203
— Houston won 15 of its last 16 games.
— Cougars were in Elite 8 LY, Final Four the year before.
— Sampson is 4-2 in Sweet 16 games.
— Houston has #2 eFG% defense in country.
— Cougars are #4 team in country on offensive boards.
— Houston’s schedule, to this point: #91
— bench minutes: #270
— Houston’s best win: 53-48 over #13 Saint Mary’s

— Last four years, #1-seeds are 5-7 ATS in Sweet 16 games.
— Last 5+ years, favorites are 19-24 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

Princeton vs Creighton (@ Louisville)
— Princeton (23-8) ranked #91 by KenPom
— Tempo: #193
— Experience: #313
— Continuity: #170
— #15-seeds are 3-0 ATS all-time in Sweet 16 games.
— Princeton won its last six games.
— Tigers are #7 team in country on defensive boards.
— Tigers have #58 eFG% defense in country, #86 eFG% offense
— Princeton is 9-7 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Princeton’s schedule, to this point: #172
— bench minutes: #326
— Princeton’s best win: 59-55 over #11 Arizona

— Creighton (23-12) ranked #12 by KenPom
— Tempo: #142
— Experience: #159
— Continuity: #82
— Creighton won five of its last six games.
— Last 25 years, Creighton is 0-1 in Sweet 16 games (lost in ’21).
— Bluejays have #27 eFG% in country, #39 eFG% defense.
— Bluejays are #13 team in country on defensive boards.
— Creighton is 4-7 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Creighton’s schedule, to this point: #12
— bench minutes: #351
— Creighton’s best win: 56-53 over #3 UConn

— #15-seeds are 3-0 ATS all-time in Sweet 16 games.
— Last 5+ years, favorites are 19-24 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

Xavier vs Texas (@ Kansas City)
— Xavier (27-9) ranked #15 by KenPom
— Tempo: #33
— Experience: #16
— Continuity: #55
— Xavier won seven of its last eight games.
— From 2004-17, Xavier went 3-4 in Sweet 16 games.
— Sean Miller is 4-3 in Sweet 16 games.
— Musketeers have #12 eFG% in country.
— Xavier is 9-6 against top 50 teams.
— Xavier’s schedule, to this point: #24
— bench minutes: #310
— Xavier’s best wins: 83-73/82-79 over #3 UConn

— Texas (28-8) ranked #5 by KenPom
— Tempo: #100
— Experience: #6
— Continuity: #151
— Texas wont its last six games, giving up 58.2 ppg.
— Texas is 3-2 in last five Sweet 16 games (last one in ’08)
— Longhorns force turnovers 22.4% of time (#19)
— Texas is shooting 54% inside arc (#38)
— Longhorns are 14-7 vs top 50 teams.
— Texas’ schedule, to this point: #7
— bench minutes: #122
— Texas’ best win: 93-74 over #6 Gonzaga

— Xavier star Boum played for Rodney Terry at UTEP
— Last 5+ years, favorites are 19-24 ATS in Sweet 16 games.
— Last 10+ years, #2-seeds are 7-5 SU vs #3-seeds in this round

Teams that cover both both round #1 and round #2 games by 11+ points:
12-9 SU, 17-2-1 ATS
Applies to Conn (W), Princeton

Late line moves were pretty solid yesterday

I wouldn't be surprised if Creighton hits 11 before tip
right into the public love affair with Princeton

Friday, 03/24/2023 (647) SAN DIEGO ST vs. (648) ALABAMA
Favoring: SAN DIEGO ST against the spread.
SAN DIEGO ST is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 72.1, OPPONENT 61.1 - (Rating = 6*)

Friday, 03/24/2023 (647) SAN DIEGO ST vs. (648) ALABAMA
Favoring: ALABAMA against the spread.
ALABAMA is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ALABAMA 85, OPPONENT 63.4 - (Rating = 4*)