Aslan Karatsev vs. Frances Tiafoe (Scheduled: 8:00 a.m. ET)
Tiafoe dominated Filip Krajinovic in the opening round of this event, but it’s still a little difficult to take the American seriously right now. Tiafoe has lost three of his last six matches, and his form looked poor in all of the big events leading up to Roland Garros. Tiafoe lost in the first round in Barcelona and then suffered second-round exits in both Madrid and Rome.

Karatsev comes into this match after having won 14 of his last 16 matches, with all of them coming on clay. The Russian also went all the way to the semifinals in Madrid, which says everything you need to know about his form right now. One of his wins in Madrid came over a red-hot Daniil Medvedev. This is a guy that is completely locked in, and Karatsev is a top-20 talent when he’s playing his best game.

As long as Karatsev serves well in this one, he should win rather easily. He’s one of the best returners in the sport, so he should get into a lot of Tiafoe’s service games. And I think Karatsev should have a slight edge from the baseline here.

Bet: Karatsev ML (-115)

Liking Karatsev as well.

P.S. Maybe we could do more tennis threads in the future, cheers.

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Cameron Norrie (Scheduled: 8:30 a.m. ET)
Musetti beat Norrie when the two met in Barcelona in the beginning of April, but I think the Brit is a great value play here. And what that comes down to is that I trust Norrie’s fitness and mental strength a little more than his opponent’s. Musetti has had some big wins in the first half of the 2023 season, but he hasn’t exactly been a reliable player throughout his career. He is prone to mental lapses on the court, and I think Norrie’s game could frustrate him.

Norrie is going to battle for however long this match lasts, putting extra balls in play and utilizing whatever he can to his advantage. He’s one of the smartest players in the sport, and that type of thing tends to matter over the course of a best-of-five match. The same goes for fitness, and there aren’t many players on tour that are in better condition than Norrie. If this ends up being a lengthy battle, Norrie should have a better shot at finding an extra gear late.

Norrie is also likely to do a better job of dissecting the film from their last match to put together a game plan. So, I’d expect the Brit to come out and play really well to start this one. I also think his big looping forehand will be more effective in Paris than it was in Barcelona. And that alone could make the difference here. If Norrie’s line drive of a backhand is clearing the net regularly, this could be more lopsided than expected.

There just isn’t much that separates these two players, so I like taking the underdog at great odds — especially when I view Norrie as the better player.

Karolina Muchova vs. Irina-Camelia Begu (Scheduled: 10:30 a.m. ET)
If you took our advice to back Muchova to win Quarter 3, there’s no need to add to the position by betting her here. But if you didn’t, I like the Czech to get the job done against Begu. The Romanian is actually 2-0 in this head-to-head series, and one of the wins came in Madrid at the end of April. But that was a 6-4, 7-5 win for Begu, and it could have gone either way. And Madrid was Muchova’s first clay-court event of the year, while Begu was able to get her feet wet in Charleston.

Muchova is actually the player that comes into this one on a better run of form. The Czech’s straight-set win over Maria Sakkari in the first round should have sent a message to the rest of the field, and Muchova has now won five of her last six matches. Meanwhile, Begu lost to Sakkari in Madrid, and she then suffered a first-round loss in Rome. So, she isn’t exactly playing her best right now. Of course, she does have two straight-set wins in Paris already, but she has had an easy draw thus far.

Muchova’s backhand can be an issue at times, but the slow clay gives her more time to attack with that shot. And her forehand is going to be a massive weapon in this match. Muchova has the ability to hit for power, and that’s important with these heavy balls. Begu is re of a counter puncher and is going to have a lot of trouble getting shots by Muchova.

Bet: Muchova ML (-140)

Will try Mychova, thx.

Muchova easy, thank you!!!

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Borna Coric (Scheduled: 6:30 a.m. ET)
It’s a little weird seeing Etcheverry as the favorite in this match, as most tennis fans are probably expecting Coric to come through here. But I agree with the line on this one and I think Etcheverry will get the job done in this tough matchup. Etcheverry has been one of the biggest winners of this clay-court season, and that’s especially true of the tournaments played after the Miami Open. Since the start of April, Etcheverry is 14-6 on the dirt. And he has picked up some massive wins in that stretch.

Etcheverry is just a really good clay-court player, and he has the ability to crush shots from his forehand side. In these slow, heavy conditions, that’s going to be huge for him. Etcheverry also happens to have a huge advantage in the rest department heading into this matchup. He has spent a total of three hours and 48 minutes on the court in Paris, while Coric’s last match alone was four hours and 25 minutes. The Croatian also happened to play four hours and 11 minutes in his opening-round win over Federico Coria.

There’s just a lot working against Coric heading into this one, even if he might be the better all-around player between these two. So, I’m rolling with the more natural clay-court player and hoping for the best. Etcheverry also beat Coric last year, and that was before the Argentine took a big leap with his game.

Bet: Etcheverry ML (-125)

Lesia Tsurenko vs. Bianca Andreescu (Scheduled: 8:30 a.m. ET)
Andreescu has picked up two impressive victories in Paris already, as she beat Victoria Azarenka in the first round and then a red-hot Emma Navarro in the second round. However, it seems as though the oddsmakers might be overreacting to those two matches. Tsurenko is 7-3 on clay since the start of April, and she’s 2-0 against Andreescu in her career. Both matches ended with the Canadian retiring, but Tsurenko was firmly in control of them. With that said, I’m surprised to see that Tsurenko is going off at plus-money odds.

Tsurenko doesn’t have as much power from the baseline as Andreescu, but she is extremely experienced and knows how to win matches. I expect her to avoid making costly errors, while also extending rallies. That could force a lot of errors out of Andreescu, who can occasionally struggle with those.

I also think fatigue could become a factor for Andreescu at some point soon. She hasn’t played a lot of tennis recently, so I question whether she’ll be able to come up with her best stuff if this one goes to a third set.

Bet: Tsurenko ML (+115)

Updated Women's French Open betting at BetMGM


Favorites
▪️ Iga Swiatek -105
▪️ Aryna Sabalenka +300
▪️ Elena Rybakina +550

Highest Ticket%
▪️ Swiatek 13.5%
▪️ Rybakina 11.1%
▪️ Sabalenka 9.9%

Highest Handle%
▪️ Swiatek 54.5%
▪️ Sabalenka 7.7%
▪️ Rybakina 7.4%

Etche guy is unreal...

Let's sweep today!!!