StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > World Cup 2018 R of 16
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread
Pages (8): « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 »

Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

England vs. Colombia (2 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: England +115, Colombia +295, Draw +225
Odds to Advance: England -175, Colombia +160

England are the favorites with roughly a 47% chance of winning in regulation and 63% of advancing to the quarterfinal. Just over half the moneyline tickets have come in on England (+115) to win in 90 minutes, which is expected.

Bettors have also been more apt to bet the underdog straight-up during the World Cup rather than the draw, and Colombia has received 34% of bets compared to just 10% for the match to go to extra time.

All of the early line movement has been toward Los Cafateros, who opened at +325 and are now at +295.

Spread bettors are just about split on England -0.5 (+114) and Colombia +0.5 (-130). This type of wager is identical to the moneyline for England (+114), but it’s a great option if you think Colombia will either win or draw and don’t want to make multiple bets.

Public bettors are not being shy about the over (2), and that’s where 80% of the tickets are going. Again there was initial movement toward the under, but juice has settled back to the opener, just like the Switzerland/Sweden total.

Old Post 07-03-18 08:06 AM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
usc1990
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6863

Parlay (regulation):

Sweden +0.5
England +0.5

-111

Old Post 07-03-18 08:43 AM
usc1990 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for usc1990 Click here to Send usc1990 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

366894140
SOC Belgium -1.5 +114 ................loss

WC 31-37-2 ...+277




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-03-18 01:24 PM
geg1951 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

[Ticket #: 366963255] STRAIGHT BET
Sweden +222

[Ticket #: 366963256] STRAIGHT BET
Sweden DRAW +186

glta

WC 31-37-2 ...+277




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-03-18 02:30 PM
geg1951 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Tues WC

Last day of the Round of 16. I expect both of these to be tightly contested and low scoring. Which means they will be scorefests..LOL. Here goes:

Sweden +200
Sweden/Swiss 0-0 at half +120 - risk .5

Colombia Double Chance to win or draw -145. Cant go England. My grandson is 50% Colombian. My biggest concern is James will probably not play.
Colombia/England 0-0 at half +135 risk .5




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 07-03-18 03:00 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Gush
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jun 2009
Posts: 3614

Tuesday

Switzerland +158
England/Columbia draw +217

GL

Old Post 07-03-18 03:44 PM
Gush is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Gush Click here to Send Gush a Private Message Edit post   Report post
eagleseye13
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2013
Posts: 1807

cmon sweden...

Papa needs a vacation!


Sweden 3-Way +211
Draw HT/Sweden +575




eagleseye13

"It doesn't matter who wins the game, it matters who covers"

2014 MLB Season Contest 2nd place +1985 (59-35-3)

Old Post 07-03-18 04:50 PM
eagleseye13  is offline Click Here to See the Profile for eagleseye13 Click here to Send eagleseye13  a Private Message Edit post   Report post
eagleseye13
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2013
Posts: 1807

Good Morning!

Sweden to advance +103.....W
Sweden 3-Way +211...........W
Draw HT/Sweden +575........W

+8.89u to start the day!




eagleseye13

"It doesn't matter who wins the game, it matters who covers"

2014 MLB Season Contest 2nd place +1985 (59-35-3)

Old Post 07-03-18 06:04 PM
eagleseye13  is offline Click Here to See the Profile for eagleseye13 Click here to Send eagleseye13  a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375

Havent had time to contribute with WC,but looking at MLS match tonight.These folks have been decent with comps lately, but again too much juice here for me. GL

twitter.com/LpwSports Comp WC

Tuesday World Cup 1* Columbia/England Over 1.5(-197)

Old Post 07-03-18 06:07 PM
Traderpro is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Traderpro Click here to Send Traderpro a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

[Ticket #: 366963255] STRAIGHT BET...win
Sweden +222

[Ticket #: 366963256] STRAIGHT BET...loss
Sweden DRAW +186


WC 32-38-2 ...+399




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-03-18 07:08 PM
geg1951 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Good Start

This one went exactly as I thought it would.

Sweden +200...W
Sweden/Swiss 0-0 at half +120 - risk .5...W

27-24.5-2.5
+3.86

Old Post 07-03-18 07:23 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

reduced to 75 from 100

366996953
SOC England v Colombia Over 2+100

366996954
SOC England +115

366996955
BTTS +120

glta




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-03-18 07:31 PM
geg1951 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

add

Colombia to advance +170. In my opinion the better side is a plus play. Even with no James.

Old Post 07-03-18 07:47 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Colombia Double Chance to win or draw -145.....W
Colombia/England 0-0 at half +135 risk .5....W
Colombia to advance....L

Great match. Awesome last second goal by Colombia to tie. England finally wins a PK shootout.

4-1 today

29-25.5-2.5
+4.54

Off till Friday.




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 07-03-18 11:03 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
usc1990
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6863

Great WC day for the Forum picks. $$$

Old Post 07-04-18 12:04 AM
usc1990 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for usc1990 Click here to Send usc1990 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

366996953
SOC England v Colombia Over 2+100 ....push

366996954
SOC England +115 ...............loss

366996955
BTTS +120 .....................win

WC 33-39-3 ...+406

Old Post 07-04-18 12:05 AM
geg1951 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

France vs. Uruguay (Friday, 10 a.m. ET)
France midfielder Blaise Matuidi is suspended for the match after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament in the Round of 16 vs. Argentina.

Uruguay forward Edinson Cavani (calf) was subbed off last match after scoring two goals to beat Portugal. There’s no muscle tear but there is swelling, and he has not trained yet. He’s very much questionable, which would surely have a bit of an impact on the odds.

Odds outlook: France are +102 to win in regulation, roughly a 50% win probability, but would see their chances improve if Cavani is unavailable for Uruguay. His status will have the biggest odds impact of any injury during the quarterfinal.

Brazil vs. Belgium (Friday 2 p.m. ET)
Brazil will be without Casemiro (suspension) after the integral midfielder picked up his second yellow card of the tournament against Mexico.

Defenders Marcelo (back) and Danilo (thigh) look like they could make it back in the lineup after missing out the Round of 16. Douglas Costa (hamstring) has returned to training and could give them a speedy outside option off the bench if healthy.

Belgium have no suspensions to worry about and also seem to be pretty healthy, although most players are surely dealing with some minor aches and pains.

Odds outlook: Marcelo returning to the lineup would help Brazil’s chances, but no Casemiro in the middle hurts them a bit. Just in terms of available healthy players, Belgium have the upper hand, but Brazil are the clear favorites to advance (-170).

Old Post 07-04-18 02:23 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

England vs. Sweden (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
On the right side of defense, Sweden will be without Mikael Lustig, who is suspended after receiving his second yellow of the tournament vs. Switzerland in the Round of 16. Emil Krafth could fill in after coming on as his substitute in that victory.

Midfielder Sebastian Larsson is eligible to play after serving his suspension, but he’s very much questionable with a head injury that happened in the final group match against Mexico.

England managed to get through a physical, chippy game against Colombia in the Round of 16 without major injuries, and also don’t have any suspensions to deal with.

Odds outlook: Lustig is one of Sweden’s higher-rated players on a defensive-minded team, but his absence won’t affect the line. England are sizable -250 favorites to advance with Sweden listed at +220.

Croatia vs. Russia (Saturday 2 p.m. ET)
Neither Croatia or Russia have any players suspended for this match.

Russia’s Alan Dzagoev (hamstring) could return to the lineup in the middle of the park after not appearing in the Round of 16 vs. Spain.

Old Post 07-04-18 02:24 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

:)

a $5 foot long parlay on the four doggies would pay $1500.00

just sayin'

:)




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-04-18 08:08 PM
geg1951 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

France vs. Uruguay, 10 a.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
France -103
Uruguay +366
Draw +216
Bet to Watch:
Diego Godin to Score First Goal +4850 (Bookmaker)

These are the two best defensive teams left in the tournament. Despite conceding three goals to Argentina, France conceded only four shots on target and 10 total shots. Sometimes 35-yard bombs and weird deflections happen. Uruguay, meanwhile, have given up one goal in the entire tournament. They’re built to win matches 1-0 while venturing forward as little as possible, doubly so since they’re expected to be without one of their two star strikers, Edinson Cavani, for at least the first part of the game.

Uruguay will be happy to sit back and make the game as muddy as possible while depending on either a wonder-strike from their remaining star forward, Luis Suarez, or more likely a set-piece goal. While Uruguay have experimented with their formation a little bit and have come to rely on a narrow diamond midfield, it hasn’t changed their extremely defensive — and effective — approach to international soccer. They do the thing they’ve done for the better part of a decade, and they do it very well.

France, meanwhile, will happily allow Uruguay to play their defensive style without taking many risks to break them down. The major question facing Didier Deschamps is how he’ll replace the suspended Blaise Matuidi. Matuidi plays vaguely on the left and vaguely in front of his midfield partners Paul Pogba and N’golo Kane (to the extent that it might also be accurate to call him the left-sided midfielder in the band of three attackers in front of Pogba and Kante). He brings defensive pressing abilities to advanced areas of the field, and is generally tasked with shutting down the opposition’s attacks before they start.
His suspension means Deschamps will need to decide between Corentin Tolisso, Thomas Lemar and Steven N’zonzi. Tolisso is a true center midfielder who is both a good pressing defender and creative passer, but who struggled when he started the opening match of the World Cup. Lemar is a hybrid left winger who is comfortable coming into central areas, and is by far the most aggressive midfield option. N’Zonzi could come in and anchor the midfield while Pogba moved into a more advanced position. Lastly, if Deschamps wants a truly attacking lineup, he could elect to start Ousman Dembele, although starting Dembele alongside Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud would result in France depending on only two midfielders to patrol the rest of the territory.

However Descahmps decides to line up, it’s likely that France will not pour men forward in an attempt to overwhelm Uruguay. Instead, as they always do, France will leave their talented attackers on an island and depend on their skills to break down a determined defense, while making sure the rest of the team is held in reserve to not give up space on the counterattack.

It’s a method that’s worked so far, and probably won’t stop now. In the event that it does, though, expect Uruguay’s goal to come ugly from the kind of physical moment they excel on, with a big defender coming forward and scoring a towering header in a crowded penalty area.

Old Post 07-06-18 08:00 AM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
Pages (8): « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 »   Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: