Spain / Russia
366746488
BTTS Yes -108 ...............WIN

366747443
SOC Russia v Spain Over 2.5 -105 .....LOSS

glta

WC 30-35-1 ...+334

croatia vs russia ????????????

366784106
SOC Denmark v Croatia Under2-107

366784107
SOC Croatia -102

glta

WC 30-35-1 ...+334

Brazil vs. Mexico, 10 a.m. ET, Fox
Brazil -212
Mexico +639
Draw +345
Bet to Watch:
Mexico +639

Even though they won their group, it feels like we haven’t seen the best from Brazil yet. After a 1-1 draw with Switzerland, they dominated Costa Rica for 90 minutes before scoring twice in stoppage time. They then took care of business against Serbia. Even if they weren’t as good on the attack as we’d expect (they were fine), Brazil’s defense was stout in the group stages, allowing just one goal and just 1.8 expected goals over the three games.

Mexico got off to a raucous start in the World Cup with their 1-0 win over Germany. They consolidated that effort with a 2-1 win over South Korea. Then things came undone.

El Tri lost to Sweden, 3-0, in their final group match and almost cost themselves a place in the Round of 16. Had Korea not pulled off the shock of the tournament against Germany, Mexico would be out.


Mexico are best suited to play a defend and counter style, and that’s why this match will not be a walkover for Brazil. El Tri’s best work came against Germany when they created chances in bunches off the counter. Brazil will keep the ball for most of the game, but Mexico will be lurking and waiting for their opportunity to spring Hirving Lozano or Miguel Layun on the counter.

With the constant threat of Mexico’s lightning counter, I think Brazil will tread carefully and they could have issues breaking through. I like this game to stay under 2.5 goals, but there’s a lot of value on backing Mexico to win here — especially with Brazil’s injury problems at fullback. At +639, the odds suggest Mexico have ~13.5% chance of winning this game. That’s low. It’s a bet you lose more often than you win, but if this match is played 100 times, does Mexico win 15 of them? I think there’s a good argument to be made that they do.

Belgium vs. Japan, 2 p.m. ET, Fox
Belgium -265
Japan +875
Draw +380
Bet to Watch:
Over 2.5 Goals -113 (Bookmaker)

No team in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup scored as many goals as Belgium. The Red Devils hit the back of the net nine times and looked like an offensive force in Group F even if two of the games were against weak opposition. In their third and final game, Belgium were able to rest key players that were a little banged up like Romelu Lukaku and Dries Mertens.

When you watch Belgium you can see why they’re such a threat going forward. While most teams pick up the ball in midfield and then take their time before making the safe pass, the Red Devils do not. They have one of the premier playmakers in the world in Kevin De Bruyne and when he’s on the ball, his first thought is to get it up the field. That style does leave them exposed, as it did against Tunisia, and that’s a little bit concerning since the main knock on Belgium is whether they will be able to defend well enough against good teams.

Japan’s defense is a cause for concern as well. Not only did they concede a goal in all three games, but Samurai Blue were outplayed for a majority of the game against a Colombian team that was down a man for 87 minutes. It’s a bit alarming considering that Poland, Senegal and Colombia all pale in comparison to Belgium when it comes to creating chances.

In their match versus Tunisia, Belgium created 5.3 expected goals (+1 penalty), which is the highest total in the tournament so far. Part of the reasoning for that high total is that normally when teams take a lead they take their foot off the gas, Belgium does not.

Both of these teams have the ability to score, but the fact that they are weak in the back really pushes me towards the over 2.5 goals.

Brazil vs. Mexico (10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Brazil -204, Mexico +753, Draw +359
Odds to Advance: Brazil -455, Mexico +385

Brazil (-204) are big favorites to win in regulation, but public bettors are all over Mexico (+753) to pull off the upset.

Just over half of moneyline bets have come in on Mexico despite a 3-0 loss as favorites against Sweden in their last group match. Brazil played to a draw their opening game of the tournament but won by consecutive 2-0 scorelines to finish the group stage.

There are a few possible explanations for the Mexico love. They’ve looked good on the counter-attack, which is necessary against a top team that will want possession. Brazil also have some injury concerns, including defender Marcelo (back), who will not start and may not be available at all. The high odds of +750 are another factor and the big payout is very enticing for the public.

Since opening at -192, the moneyline has shifted in Brazil’s favor. They reached a high of -219 early Sunday morning before coming back down to the current odds of -204. As fun as it is to root for the underdog, this match is shaping up to be a sharp contrarian spot to back Brazil to win.

Spread bets are just about even on Brazil -1 (+109) and Mexico +1 (-117). The large majority is on over 2.5 goals and juice has trended that way as well.

Belgium vs. Japan (2 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Belgium -255, Japan +660, Draw +350
Odds to Advance: Belgium -725, Japan +550

Public bettors aren’t quite as convinced with Japan’s (+660) chances of an upset, and more than 70% of bets have come in on Belgium (-255) to win in regulation. They’re also getting more than 75% of spread bets on three separate spreads of -1, -1.25 and -1.5.

Naturally with bettors on big favorite Belgium to win, they’re also on the over (2.5) goals, shifting the juice upward since opening.

Setting all biases and bets aside, it would be fascinating to see a Brazil-Belgium matchup in the quarterfinal. Brazil are currently +400 to win the World Cup, behind only France (+375), while Belgium have the third-best odds at +600. Only one of them will even make the final, though.

2 goals in the first 3:45 and i can't get the over !

366784106
SOC Denmark v Croatia Under2-107 ...push

366784107
SOC Croatia -102 ....................loss

glta

WC 30-36-2 ...+232

i figure 1 of the WC heavyweights kicks someone's A$$ in the 16 round. hoping it's these guys ..............

366861021
SOC Brazil -1.5 +145

glta


WC 30-36-2 ...+232

Spain/Russia O2,2.5 -106.....P,L
Spain/Russia - BTTS +115.....W

Croatia/Denmark HT Draw/FT Croatia +300...L
Croatia/Denmark - HT U0.5 +130...L

24-23.5=2.5
+0.26

Brazil/Mex U2.5 -103
Belgium -1 -160

Beer Money
Belgium 3-0
Mexico/Brazil 0-0 at the half

24-23.5-2.5
+0.26

Brazil/Mexico o2.5
Mexico TT over 0.5 goals -120

366861021
SOC Brazil -1.5 +145 ........win


WC 31-36-2 ...+377
------------------------------------

366894140
SOC Belgium -1.5 +114

glta

Sweden to advance +103
Sweden 3-Way +211
Draw HT/Sweden +575

Columbia/England o2 -108

Brazil/Mex U2.5 -103....W
Belgium -1 -160....P- Perhaps the best second half of soccer/goalkeeping I have ever seen.

1-0-1 today
25-23.5-3.5
+1.26

Still looking at tomorrows games. I expect both to be low scoring, 2 is the current O/U number. Will post tomorrow.

Sweden vs. Switzerland (Tuesday, 10 a.m. ET, FS1)
Surprisingly, Switzerland has been the center of disciplinary issues. Two key won’t play against Sweden due to yellow card accumulation: Stephan Lichtsteiner and Fabian Schär.

They also have three players facing suspension with another card: Shaqiri, Behrami and Zakaria.

Sweden will be without midfielder Sebastian Larsson (suspension), who is also dealing with a head/upper-body injury. Claesson, Ekdal and Lustig have yellow cards.

Colombia vs. England (Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET, FOX)
Colombia suffered a potentially brutal blow in the first half vs. Senegal with star midfielder James Rodriguez limping off after 30 minutes. He was already dealing with a minor calf injury, but it has not been specified if this is a new injury or a re-aggravation. His absence would be visible in the odds, and the team is said to be very concerned. If he does play, he also needs to avoid a card.

Barrios and Mojica are the other Colombian players on yellow cards.

Los Cafeteros may also be without Abel Aguilar (groin), who already missed the Senegal match.

England are healthy and with only two players on a caution: Kyle Walker and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.

Betting odds: England vs. Colombia, 2 p.m., Fox
Colombia +303
England +116
Draw +224
Bet to Watch:
Colombia +0.5 -125

The biggest question mark heading into Colombia vs. England is whether or not Colombia’s star man, James Rodriguez, will be fit. James has been dealing with a calf issue the entire tournament and was last seen exiting Los Cafeteros’ must-win game against Senegal in the first half. It’s been a roller coaster for James, who played only 30 minutes in Colombia’s first game and then dominated Poland in their second.

Heading into the England game, James is once again questionable. However, he posted a bit of a cryptic tweet on Saturday. All signs seem to point to James not being able to play, which is a devastating blow for Colombia.

The good news for the South Americans is that, even without James, England are not well-suited for this type of matchup. It is true that Colombia are a much better team with him on the field, but the Three Lions lack the talent in the midfield to exploit James’ absence.

Colombia should be able to exploit some mismatches in the center of the pitch and quickly counter as Juan Cuadrado should give England a lot of issues down the flanks. The main reason for England’s success thus far has been their quality on set pieces. England dominated Panama and Tunisia in the air, and that played a huge role in helping them get through Group G.

Colombia are a much more talented and composed side than Tunisia and Panama. And with England’s suspect playmaking in the midfield, Los Cafeteros could have success packing the middle and forcing the ball out wide. At that point, it will be up to Kieran Trippier and Ashley Young to break down the Colombian back line.

With or without James, Colombia have enough talent to beat England. Their recipe for success will be to sit back, soak up some pressure and then launch quick counters. Everyone has been impressed with England, but they should not look past a banged-up Colombia side.

COLOMBIA

Betting odds: Sweden vs. Switzerland, 10 a.m. ET, Fox
Sweden +217
Switzerland +171
Draw +196
Bet to Watch:
Switzerland +171

It would be a mistake to dismiss the least sexy Round of 16 match. Both Switzerland and Sweden have acquitted themselves well against top competition. Switzerland played Brazil to a 1-1 draw and Sweden almost held on against Germany before ultimately falling, 2-1. They followed that up by trouncing Mexico, 3-0, to win their group. Considering how the draw has opened up, whoever wins this matchup will be only two winnable matches away from the World Cup final. It’s certainly not difficult to imagine either of these teams beating England and Croatia if things aligned properly.

The match itself will likely be a tight, defensive, conservative affair. Sweden were impressive against Germany and Mexico when they were able to defend and counterattack, but struggled to create anything against the weaker South Korea, who forced them to play in possession. Similarly, Switzerland’s calling card is a strong aggressive defense. They consistently destroy the midfield against all opponents, making it impossible for teams to play through them.

When forced though, Switzerland have more attacking playmakers than Sweden. Well, specifically they have one, Xherdan Shaqiri. He is the kind of skilled playmaker who is made for international play. He needs to be the focal point of an attack — his skill set is built on having the ball at his feet — but he’s never been quite good enough to carry a top club team. He also isn’t able to produce as a second banana.

Switzerland are perfect for him, happy to let him provide the attacking spark while building a very stubborn defense behind him. His last-second goal gave Switzerland a win over Serbia, and he can be the difference maker again against Sweden.

Switzerland vs. Sweden (10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Switzerland +173, Sweden +217, Draw +195
Odds to Advance: Switzerland -120, Sweden +105

Oddsmakers are expecting a tight, low-scoring contest between the two European sides, and Sweden (+217) is getting the highest share of moneyline bets at 45%. They’re also getting nearly 70% of spread bets on the pick ’em line, but there’s been very little movement to report.

Sportsbooks clearly haven’t been concerned about the lopsided action on Sweden.

Throughout the tournament, we’ve seen public bettors flock to the over when there’s a total listed at 2 goals, but this time the majority is on the under. Early on, the juice moved from -120 to -130 on the under, but it’s now come back to the opener of -120.