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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Russia vs. Spain, 10 a.m. ET, Fox
Spain -169
Russia +527
Draw +295
Bet to Watch:
Both Teams to Score +106 (Bookmaker)
In a somewhat curious turn of events, the team that won its group, Spain, actually picked up fewer points in group play than their second-placed opponents, Russia, did en route to the round of 16. However, La Roja justify their favorites tag regardless.
While hosts Russia were unexpectedly efficient in the final third in their opening two matches, the caliber of opposition needs to be taken into account. And though they weren’t at their strongest in terms of personnel against Uruguay — with matters exacerbated by stand-in right back Igor Smolnikov’s dismissal — that defeat was still a greater indicator of their prospects in the latter stages.
The return of Aleksandr Golovin, who was rested last time out, will improve Russia’s threat on the counter immensely against a possession-dominant Spain side, but defensively, there are still real weaknesses in the lineup. How Russia cope physically when chasing the ball is a concern for an aging defense, and Yury Gazinsky and Roman Zobnin will be very busy while attempting to shield that backline.
Spain may not have clicked into gear just yet, but they have been unstoppable in patches. And there is still the sense that, if they do hit their stride, the 2010 champions have a real shot to go the distance.
If they are to do so, however, they too will have to improve without the ball, and a change in system that offers more protection to the back four may be in the offing. No team to qualify for the knockout phase conceded more goals than Fernando Hierro’s men, and David De Gea’s place in goal is under threat after failing to even come close to replicating his club form for his country.
With each side’s group stage pros and cons in mind, the angle in this one does look to be backing goals, with a combined total of 14 scored and nine conceded each being the highest of the eight round of 16 matchups. However, it’s normal for things to get a little tighter as the stakes rise and the pressure mounts, so the goal line itself may be one to avoid.
I still can’t see past goals at both ends, though, with Russia set to return to full strength from an attacking standpoint. And while Saudi Arabia are no Spain by any means, the way Stanislav Cherchesov’s side attacked the Saudis on the counter with the intense support in the tournament’s curtain raiser should offer some optimism for the home fans. They won’t need any extra reason to create a raucous atmosphere either, putting pressure on what has to now been a nervous and error-prone opponent.
The fact that the hosts also earned a 3-3 draw in a friendly between the sides last year is further encouragement to attack a relatively fragile side, and while I’d still expect this to be the end of Russia’s journey, they’ll be desperate to go out with a fight if it is. Odds well over evens on both teams to score represent good value in my book.
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07-01-18 01:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Croatia vs. Denmark, 2 p.m. ET, Fox
Croatia -118
Denmark +433
Draw +222
Bet to Watch:
Croatia -118
No team in the opening round of the World Cup stood out more than Croatia. Despite their long odds (+3300), I had picked Croatia to win the whole tournament, and after watching them sweep Group D — one of the tournament’s toughest sets — I love the bet even more.
The Vatreni have manhandled their three opponents thus far, and the most impressive part of their run is how they’ve been able to shut down three teams that play completely different styles. In each contest, Zlatko Dalic’s men adapted to their opponents and walked all over them. Their 3-0 win over Argentina stands out the most, though, as they completely removed Lionel Messi from the game.
Croatia just have so much flexibility on their roster, and they can throw so many different lineups out without suffering. There aren’t many other teams in the tournament that can do that.
Denmark, on the other hand, struggled mightily in the first round and are lucky to still be standing. The Danes scored just two goals — one of which was a wonder-goal by their star, Christian Eriksen — and that was good enough to earn them five points. Against Peru, Denmark was second-best but still managed to luck out a win. They followed that performance with a 1-1 draw against an abysmal Australia side and then a 0-0 draw against France. To this point, Denmark have lacked the ability to put anything together offensively.
Based on what we’ve seen so far, I think Croatia will handle Denmark with relative ease, but I wouldn’t expect them to score many goals. Croatia have suffocated their opponents, and I would think they’ll try to stymie Eriksen’s influence on the game like they did with Messi. When you remove Eriksen from the Denmark game plan, they are left with a lot of people who struggle to create. They would most likely rely on Pione Sisto to try and generate offense.
One last thing to remember is that Dalic was able to rest most of his lineup in the final group stage game, and with the temperatures soaring in Russia, I think that will be a big benefit, especially in the latter stages of the game.
Look for Croatia to slow Denmark down all game and, if they get a lead, completely take Eriksen out of the game. I think there’s value on Croatia to win what should be a low-scoring affair.
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07-01-18 01:54 PM |
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