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richieg


Registered: Feb 2008
Posts: 147

2018 NFL and NCAA Football Tips and Trends ATS

BIO:
Rich Green is the editor of http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com , a free sports handicapping and information service. He has been a top ranked handicapper for over 40 years. He specializes in Football, Basketball and Baseball, all the major sports, and has won numerous contests in each.

Click HERE for Final 2017-18 Gold Key Football write-ups https://tinyurl.com/ya3yc7c6

Click HERE for Final 2016-17 Gold Key Football write-ups https://tinyurl.com/y74enoya



YOU CAN SEE THE COMPLETE ARTICLE AND LIST OF TEAMS HERE: https://tinyurl.com/yd8uqary


(SCROLL DOWN FOR NFL TRENDS)



2018 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2018 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 8-1 ATS as Dogs >=7 pts, 0-9 ATS vs Wyoming

Akron -- 3-0 ATS vs Miami-Ohio, 1-9 ATS as Favorites >10 pts

Alabama -- 8-0 ATS as non-Conf Favs <21.5 pts, 0-7 ATS Home off non-Conference Play

Appalachian State -- 3-0 ATS versus Georgia Southern, 0-5 ATS off a shutout win

Arizona -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS as Road Dogs >=15 pts, 0-8 ATS after playing UCLA

Arizona State -- New Head Coach, 12-0 ATS vs Washington, 0-8 ATS on weekdays

Arkansas -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 0-5 ATS after allowing 10 or less pts

Arkansas State -- 8-0 ATS vs UL-Monroe, 1-5 ATS off a Double Digit ATS loss

Army -- 4-0 ATS vs Navy, 0-6 ATS before playing Navy

Auburn -- 3-0 ATS vs Ole Miss, 1-6 ATS before playing Tennessee

Ball State -- 12-0 ATS after playing Eastern Michigan, 0-4 ATS vs Western Michigan

Baylor -- 6-0 ATS versus Kansas, 0-4 ATS after playing Kansas State

Boise State -- 4-0 ATS as Dogs off a SU and ATS loss, 1-6 ATS vs New Mexico

Boston College -- 5-0 ATS vs Temple, 0-4 ATS vs opponents with Revenge

Bowling Green -- 3-0 ATS vs Kent, 1-7 ATS at Home with Rest

Buffalo -- 4-0 ATS vs Bowling Green, 0-3 ATS vs Miami-Ohio

BYU -- 7-1 ATS before playing Utah, 1-7 ATS with Rest

California -- 5-0 ATS vs Arizona, 1-6 ATS vs Oregon

Central Michigan -- 6-0 ATS after playing Ball State, 0-8 ATS vs Toledo

Charlotte -- 3-1 ATS with Rest, 1-8 ATS in non-Conference Play

Cincinnati -- 9-0 ATS at Home vs East Carolina, 1-8 ATS before playing East Carolina

Clemson -- 4-1 ATS vs Georgia Tech, 0-4 ATS vs Wake Forest

Coastal Carolina -- 4-2 ATS last six games, 0-2 ATS as Home Favorites

Colorado -- 4-0 ATS vs Cal, 0-8 ATS vs Washington

Colorado State -- 5-0 ATS vs Hawaii, 0-4 ATS as Bowlers

Connecticut -- 3-1 vs UCF, 1-8 ATS as beaten Favorites

Duke -- 4-0 ATS as Bowlers, 0-4 ATS vs Miami

East Carolina -- 4-1 ATS in Game Four, 2-11 ATS with Rest

Eastern Michigan -- 7-0 ATS after playing Toledo, 0-5 ATS after playing Ball State

Florida -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS before playing LSU, 1-7 ATS after scoring < a Touchdown

Florida Atlantic -- 4-1 ATS vs Western Kentucky, 2-8 ATS after allowing at least 35 pts

Florida International -- 5-0 ATS off a Double Digit SU loss, 1-5 ATS in last game of season

Florida State -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS vs below .500 opponents, 0-8 ATS after a SU Dog win

Fresno State -- 6-0 ATS vs New Mexico, 1-4 ATS vs UNLV

Georgia -- 6-0 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 2-11 ATS with Rest

Georgia Southern -- 4-0 ATS vs Troy, 1-7 ATS as Favs

Georgia State -- 4-0 ATS after playing Troy, 2-7 ATS as Home Dogs

Georgia Tech -- 6-0 ATS first lined game, 2-11 ATS after playing Duke

Hawaii --6-0 ATS vs Army and Navy, 0-5 ATS vs Colorado State

Houston -- 13-0 ATS as Dogs, 2-9 ATS after playing Tulsa

Illinois -- 8-0 ATS as Conference Dogs off back to back SU wins, 4-13 ATS vs Northwestern

Indiana -- 6-1 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play, 0-4 ATS vs Ball State

Iowa -- 4-0 ATS at Purdue, 0-8 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

Iowa State -- 8-0 ATS as Home Favs <10.5 pts, 0-4 ATS vs West Virginia

Kansas -- 5-1 ATS after playing Baylor, 0-9 ATS with Rest

Kansas State -- 6-1 ATS vs Oklahoma State, 0-3 ATS vs Iowa State

Kent State -- New Head Coach, 3-1 ATS vs Akron, 0-6 ATS as Home Favs off SU loss

Kentucky -- 5-0 ATS vs South Carolina, 0-5 ATS vs Georgia

UL-Lafayette -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS vs Texas State, 1-6 ATS after scoring at least 35 pts

UL-Monroe -- 9-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU win, 0-8 ATS vs Arkansas State

Liberty -- First lined season, 27-20 SU last four years

Louisiana Tech -- 8-0 ATS off a SU Dog win, 0-5 ATS with Rest

Louisville -- 9-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs off a SU win, 0-4 ATS vs Wake Forest

LSU -- 7-0 ATS vs Texas A&M, 0-4 ATS vs Mississippi State

Marshall -- 9-1 ATS last game of season, 0-4 ATS vs Western Kentucky

Maryland -- 5-1 ATS on the Road vs opponents who are beaten Favs, 0-11 ATS off a SU and ATS win

Memphis -- 4-0 ATS vs SMU, 1-7 ATS as Weekday Favs

Miami -- 4-0 ATS vs Duke, 1-6 ATS before playing Pittsburgh

Miami OH -- 6-1 ATS in first of back to back Road games, 0-3 ATS vs Ohio U

Michigan -- 4-0 ATS vs Ohio State, 0-10 ATS vs Michigan State

Michigan State -- 10-0 ATS vs Michigan, 0-4 ATS vs Purdue

MTSU -- 4-0 ATS after playing Marshall, 0-8 ATS after playing Florida International

Minnesota -- 5-0 ATS after playing Ohio State, 3-11 ATS as Home Favorites

Mississippi -- 8-2 ATS at Home in non-Conference Play, 0-5 ATS vs Arkansas

Mississippi State -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS vs Lsu, 0-6 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win

Missouri -- 57-5 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road, 0-8 ATS as Favorites off a SU Dog win

Navy -- 5-0 ATS vs Smu, 0-4 ATS vs Army

Nebraska -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS vs Michigan State, 0-4 ATS vs Ohio State

Nevada -- 4-0 ATS after playing Colorado State, 1-6 ATS before playing Hawaii

New Mexico -- 6-0 ATS vs Air Force, 0-6 vs Fresno State

New Mexico State -- 4-0 ATS vs New Mexico, 2-10 ATS with Rest

North Carolina -- 5-0 ATS after playing Virginia Tech, 0-5 ATS vs Virginia Tech

North Carolina State -- 12-0 ATS as Conf Dogs with Rest, 1-5 ATS after playing Florida State


Here is a look before the 2018 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:



Arizona -- New Head Coach, 12-0 ATS off a Double Digit ATS loss, 11-1 ATS as non-Division Home Dogs <7 pts, 4-11 ATS at Home, 0-6 ATS on Thursdays vs above average rivals

Atlanta -- 11-2 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS as Favorites off MNF, 0-5 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-7 ATS after playing Tampa Bay

Baltimore -- 5-0 ATS as Division Dogs >3 pts, 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland, 1-7 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 0-5 ATS Home vs the AFC West

Buffalo -- 6-1 ATS before playing New England, 5-1 ATS as Favorites, 0-4 ATS at Home vs New England, 1-9 ATS at Home off a Double Digit ATS win

Carolina -- 4-0 ATS vs Washington, 7-1 ATS before playing on Thursday, 0-6 ATS vs Pittsburgh, 1-5 ATS before playing Tampa Bay

Chargers -- 16-1 ATS vs AFC South, 4-0 ATS vs San Francisco, 0-9 ATS vs rivals with Rest, 0-4 ATS before Bye Week

Chicago -- New Head Coach, 16-4 ATS before playing Detroit, 6-1 ATS after playing Minnesota, 1-8 ATS at San Francisco, 1-11 ATS before playing Minnesota

Cincinnati -- 13-1 ATS as non-Division Home Dogs, 6-0 ATS before playing Pittsburgh, 2-9 ATS vs opponents with Rest, 1-8 ATS at the AFC East

Cleveland -- 3-0 ATS vs Kansas City, 6-0 ATS vs the Chargers, 0-5 ATS at Home vs Baltimore, 1-11 ATS versus the NFC

Dallas -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Dogs, 10-1 ATS with Rest and Revenge, 1-9 ATS vs the NFC South, 1-7 ATS in Thursday Home games

Denver -- 9-2 ATS on Thursdays, 8-0 ATS as Division Road Favorites >3 pts, 0-5 vs Kansas City, 1-6 ATS after playing Chargers

Detroit -- New Head Coach, 6-1 ATS on the Road off a Double Digit ATS loss, 9-1 ATS Home Dogs vs Division foe off SU loss, 0-10 ATS as Thursday Dogs, 1-8 ATS before playing Green Bay

Green Bay -- 7-1 ATS after playing Chicago, 5-0 ATS Home vs NFC West, 0-6 ATS as two TD Favs or >, 1-10 ATS as Dogs with Revenge

Houston -- 4-0 ATS with Rest, 7-2 ATS vs Tennessee, 1-6 ATS on Thursdays, 1-6 ATS after playing Jacksonville

Indianapolis -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS after playing Houston, 9-1 ATS as Favorites after allowing at least 35 pts, 1-7 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 0-5 ATS after scoring at least 35 pts

Jacksonville -- 7-1 ATS with Rest, 7-1 ATS after playing Tennessee, 1-7 ATS vs the AFC West, 1-9 ATS before playing Indianapolis

Kansas City -- 5-0 ATS before playing Chargers, 5-0 ATS vs Denver, 1-5 ATS at Pittsburgh, 0-5 ATS as Dogs vs the AFC North

Miami -- 4-0 ATS vs Oakland, 4-0 ATS before playing Jets, 2-10 ATS off MNF, 1-6 ATS vs Jets


2018 NFL AND NCAA Football Wagering Tips

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers. The most important edge is emotion. Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events. This is true in all sports. But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football. Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion. Such Coaches as John Holliday, Paul Johnson, Bill Belichick and anyone named Harbaugh among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years.

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games. The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division. Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each. They are called the East, North, South and West. So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division. When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team.

If Seattle for example, early in the season, plays Arizona this week and San Francisco in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games. But if the in-between game is against say Chicago, a lesser out of Division team, be careful! Seattle will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week. Starters may be pulled early against Chicago, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one.

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'. The team usually wins, but fails to cover. Then the bettor jumps off of Seattle the following week against San Francisco because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything. When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ˝ to one point with me. Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me. When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play. This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc. But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line. This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game. I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it. They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways. The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet. They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on. For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years. Every week! For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points. Sometimes it can move even more. Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction.

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2018 Football Wagering Season! Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!

--Rich Green

Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com

http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com


Click HERE for Final 2017-18 Gold Key Football write-ups https://tinyurl.com/ya3yc7c6

Click HERE for Final 2016-17 Gold Key Football write-ups https://tinyurl.com/y74enoya

Old Post 07-15-18 05:43 PM
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