a great week of matches ahead of us !
GL

Another incredible week of Champions League Round of 16 action has arrived with two juicy encounters on Tuesday afternoon: Bayern Munich at Liverpool and Barcelona at Lyon.

Liverpool have the slight edge over Bayern and are listed at -120 to advance. Barcelona are heavy -800 favorites in their match-up against Lyon.

Barcelona at Lyon (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET on B/R Live and Unimas)
Moneylines: Barcelona -135, Lyon +350, Draw +300
Total: 3 (o-125)

This is the first meeting between Barcelona and Lyon in 10 years, and the French side will look for their first win in seven tries between the clubs.

This match-up also marks the first meeting of undefeated UCL teams in the knockout stage since the 2007-08 semifinal (Barcelona vs. Manchester United).

Barcelona recently received a bit of good news with the return of center-back Samuel Umtiti (knee), but he may not start, and fellow defender Thomas Vermaelen (muscle) has already been ruled out. They’re also missing midfielder Arthur (hamstring), midfielder Rafinha (knee) and goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen (calf) due to injuries.

Lyon are dealing with some key injuries, too, and will be hurt most by the suspension of attacking-minded Nabil Fekir.

Odds have been available for exactly two months but the line really started shifting when Leo Messi was met with a slight injury concern in early February.

The Barcelona moneyline crashed down from -170 to -140, which was mostly caused by the market adjusting to the unknown circumstances. Since then, the line has continued to trickle down into the -120/-125 range.

It’s important to be aware of these situations because odds don’t strictly move based on bettors placing wagers. Messi is obviously one of the most influential athletes to a betting line, and sportsbooks need to act swiftly.

One thing I’ve been surprised about is the lack of buy-back on Barcelona. The public betting percentages have been very balanced across the board, but I expected to see action on Barcelona at such a discounted price. Perhaps we will see money eventually come in before kickoff, but it hasn’t happened yet.

Lyon earned two fantastic results against Manchester City in the group stage and recently handed PSG their first loss of the Ligue 1 season, so the confidence should be there against another top side like Barcelona.

Playing the first leg at home should also take some pressure off unless an early goal swings the momentum.

While some are saying that Barcelona haven’t performed particularly well lately, the narrow results could be misleading. Their xG (expected goals) against Valladolid was 3.2 compared to just 0.3 for the visitors, yet they only won 1-0 and missed a PK.

Barcelona should be able to generate scoring chances with a well-rested attacking core, and a high over/under of 3 goals suggests the same. The first leg on the road won’t be easy by any means, but the value is currently there on Barcelona to win at -140 or better.

Bayern Munich at Liverpool (Tuesday, 3 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: Bayern +240, Liverpool +115, Draw +270
Total: 3 (u-120)

There’s a lot to unpack in this game, too, with Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino and Dejan Lovren both missing training on Monday. They’ll already be without Virgil van Dijk as the leader of the defensive line due to suspension, and their depth will be key in winning the first leg at home.

Bayern Munich striker Thomas Muller is suspended and will miss out along with the injured Corentin Tolisso and Arjen Robben. The status of Kingsley Coman is also in limbo although he’s trending in a positive direction.

Sportsbooks around the market have seen balanced action on both Liverpool (56%, +115) and Bayern Munich (32%, +260), and as usual the draw hasn’t garnered much attention. It also has the longest odds at +270, but bettors are banking on a winner.

My attention has focused on the over (3) for several reasons. Bayern Munich were pitching some shutouts back in December but each of their last six matches has seen 4+ goals scored.

They’re hard to trust defensively which should bode well for a powerful Liverpool attack, and offensively, Bayern will benefit by not having to face Virgil van Dijk.

Liverpool +104
Barca -154

Bayern Munich @ Liverpool - POD

Bayern is no longer the top dog in the German first division and went winless in four of their last eight overall games, and three of their last away ties. They have consistently dropped points, and especially against teams with well-coordinated frontlines. And, it would be an understatement, if I say the Reds do have one.

The front-three of Mohammed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Bobby Firminho has torn defenses down, and despite their slow start to the season, looks ready to reiterate the heroics of last season. The obvious home advantage they have got going on for themselves will also factor a lot into this game.

LFC has also been out of this world at home. Their only loss this season in front of their home crowd, was against Chelsea, in the EFL Cup. They doled out losses to the likes of Arsenal, eternal rivals Manchester United, PSG, Napoli etc, and that too with big margins. I am on Liverpool here.

Liverpool +116

Current POD record - 5-7 (-1.77)

Parlay - current record 5-7 (+12)

Oldham -149 (Eng lg 2)
Lyon/Barca - BTTS -175
Risk 1 to win 1.6

394700446
SOC Mamelodi Sundowns DRAW +286
-----------------------------------------
394700785
SOC West Bromwich Albion +131

glta

394700446
Mamelodi Sundowns DRAW +286 ...winner
-----------------------------------------
394700785
West Bromwich Albion +131

S Africa pays off again
394700446
Mamelodi Sundowns DRAW +286 ...winner
-----------------------------------------
394700785
West Bromwich Albion +131.........winner

needed a good day !!

Juventus at Atletico Madrid (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: Juventus +175, Atletico +185, Draw +205
Total: 2 (o-115)

Juventus-Atletico Madrid is a fascinating match-up and odds are nearly dead even for the opening leg at the Wanda Metropolitano, also the site of this year’s final.

These teams haven’t met too often with the last encounter coming in the 2014-15 Champions League group stage where Atletico drew 0-0 and won 1-0.

Under coach Diego Simeone, Atleti are undefeated in six matches against Italian clubs and incredibly, they have conceded just one goal in their last 10 Champions League knockout stage matches.

On the injury front, Atletico Madrid should be getting back midfielder Koke, which will be a big boost for them all around. Lucas Hernadez is the only player out for the Spanish side while Juan Cuadrado and Sami Khedira will be the only players missing for Juventus.

Bettors have been heavy on Juventus and have accounted for nearly 80% of wagers. Odds are down from +195 to +175 over the last couple days and the public is expected to keep pounding Juve until kickoff.

With a low total of 2 goals, there’s a decent chance that the match ends 0-0, especially considering Atletico’s defense prowess at home.

Manchester City at Schalke (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET on B/R Live)
Moneylines: Man City -350, Schalke +950, Draw +515
Total: 3 (o-115)

Manchester City have been the UCL title favorites throughout the tournament and they’re the biggest favorites to advance to the quarterfinals. After a brief lapse in the EPL, they’ve overtaken Liverpool as favorites to lift that trophy, too.

Schalke are struggling in the Bundesliga and currently sit in 14th place with just 23 points. They were fortunate to advance from a weak Champions League group stage and have to face a Manchester City side that have re-found their form in the last month.

City do have a few injury concerns defensively with Benjamin Mendy, John Stones and Fabian Delph all out, but they’ve got plenty of ammo on the bench.

All of the line movement since opening has been geared toward toward Man City and they’re now up to -350 favorites on the road. Sportsbooks have been hard-pressed to find bettors willing to take Schalke, and their odds have reached the +950 moneyline range.

There have been over 2.5 goals in 11 straight Champions League matches involving Man City, so there’s no surprise to see more than 80% of bets on the over (3) for Wednesday. Bettors are also bypassing the Man City moneyline and taking the -1.5/-2 goal-line spreads instead

Champions league did not treat anyone here well yesterday. Lets try today.

POD - Record 5-8 (-2.77)

Millwall @ Derby - (Eng Champ)

The home team is the huge favorite for this considering their respective league standings alone. Bring in home advantage, and recent form to the equation, and it is game over for Millwall.

Derby has lost just three times in their last 16 overall games, and just twice in their last 19 home-ties. They have also got a streak of seven unbeaten home fixtures going on. Additionally, the team has registered two or more goals in their last three home games in a row.

On the contrary, Millwall has just two wins to their name in their last 17 fixtures away from home. One was against the dead-last team in the Championship, and the other was in a FA Cup tie, against League One side AFC Wimbledon.

On top of all this, the team failed to score in five of their last six visits to this stadium, and seven of their last eight. And finally, since 2004, they have recorded just a single win at the Pride Park.

On basis of all these, I think it goes without saying that the home team is going to dominate the proceedings all through the ninety minutes.

Derby +107

Parlay Record 5-8 (+11)

Derby +107
Man City -319
Bourdeaux +101 (fra 1)
Risk 1 to win 4.46

Additionally on:
Athletico Madrid/ Juventus - Draw +196
Athletico Madrid ML +195
Either hit and I profit - results will go in POD

394813868
SOC Derby County +101

glta

Love the Derby play

small on these ....1st time with this league.

394816340
SOC General Lamadrid DRAW +170

394816341
SOC Deportivo Laferrere -139

394816342
SOC Ferrocarril Midland +143

394816343
SOC Canuelas FC +148

394816344
SOC Canuelas FC DRAW +175

glta

POD - Record 6-10 (-2.82)

Millwall @ Derby..+107....L … upset

Parlay Record 5-9 (+10)

Derby +107..l
Man City -319..w
Bourdeaux +101 (fra 1)..l
Risk 1 to win 4.46...L

Athletico Madrid/ Juventus - Draw +196..L
Athletico Madrid ML +195...W

Europa League Round of 32: Odds to Advance

Arsenal -350/BATE +265
Napoli -10000/Zurich +2500
Fenerbahce -220/Zenit +180
Valencia -4000/Celtic +1500
Salzburg -130/Brugge +110
Zagreb -130/Plzen +110
Frankfurt -280/Shakhtar +225
Villarreal -550/Sporting +375

Chelsea -8000/Malmo +2200
Benfica -1000/Gala +650
Betis -500/Rennes +350
Leverkusen -240/Kras +190
Kiev -260/Olympiakos +220
Inter -1500/Vienna +850
Genk -140/Prague +115

394813868
SOC Derby County +101

Argentina Primera C
small on these ....1st time with this league.

394816340
SOC General Lamadrid DRAW +170

394816341
SOC Deportivo Laferrere -139 .....winner

394816342
SOC Ferrocarril Midland +143

394816343
SOC Canuelas FC +148

394816344
SOC Canuelas FC DRAW +175

POD current record 6-10 (2.82)

Galatasaray @ Benfica

We’re confident that Benfica will win and that both teams will score on Thursday, with the final scoreline ending 3-1 to the Portuguese giants. Benfica had the beating of Galatasaray last week and in their own backyard the Portuguese outfit have looked really strong all season long. Admittedly the hosts haven’t kept many clean sheets of late, but they have been scoring for fun and even put ten past Nacional in the Primeira Liga just over a week ago.

Benfica -214 (I got it at -147 last night, liking the line movement)

Parlay record 5-9 (+10)

Valencia -160
Bayer Leverkusen -229
Benfica -214

Risk 1 to win 2.42

Zenit
Napoli -2
Valencia -1
Bayer -1'

good luck everyone