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RDTrains
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 12050
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How tasty will this trip to Wake Forest be for UNC?
After Virginia, and prior to Duke
North Carolina at Wake Forest - 12:00 p.m. ET
On paper, giving North Carolina a road trip to Wake on Saturday should see the Tar Heels become a popular betting choice regardless of what the point spread turns out to be. Wake is just 2-9 SU in conference play and have been priced as home underdogs in every ACC game so far this year. That won't change this weekend, and while Wake is a bad team that's hard to make an argument for, they do have the benefit of hosting UNC in what is essentially a fully loaded sandwich spot.
UNC came up short in their home date with Virginia on Monday night, as they couldn't take advantage of a tough turnaround spot the Cavaliers were in that day. The loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for UNC (5-2 ATS), and after needing OT to dispatch of Miami a few days earlier, you knew UNC was looking ahead to that game with Virginia and they couldn't produce.
This weekend the Tar Heels don't have the benefit of being at home against a bad team, and for as much as Wake has struggled in conference play this year, both wins have come at home. UNC will be expected to win by a large margin on paper, but covering a big number is likely going to be tough if the Tar Heels come into this game with one eye looking back to Virginia and the other one looking forward to Duke.
Granted UNC should win this game straight up even if they bring their “B” or “C” game to the party, but I wouldn't put it past the Demon Deacons cashing the ATS ticket should the number be rather larger. Wake closed as a +20.5 underdog at home vs Duke, and +9.5 underdog at home vs Louisville, and I do expect this number to be much closer to that Duke spread in the end. If that's the case, looking at taking all those points with Wake is probably the better way to go.
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02-16-19 10:45 AM |
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RDTrains
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 12050
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Does LSU get caught between big games? After win @ Kentucky, before games vs Florida, and Tennessee
LSU vs. Georgia - 6:00 p.m. ET
The blue bloods in the ACC aren't the only teams in undesirable betting spots on Saturday, as the LSU Tigers have their own road game to be concerned about as well. LSU is coming off that controversial road win @ Kentucky this week, and now heads to Georgia to try and knock off a Bulldogs team that is considerably better than their 1-10 SU conference record would suggest.
This game has a lot of similarities to the UNC/Wake game mentioned earlier, as Georgia is sitting in 2nd last place in the SEC and has become a team the rest of the conference expects to roll over when they see them. Given LSU just beat the #5 team in the country on the road, expectations for LSU have grown significantly since that win on Tuesday. Considering the Tigers have a 10-1 SU record in SEC play and their only loss came on a buzzer beater as well, expectations (and likely this spread) were already quite high.
And while Florida may not strike the same fear in opponents in terms of looking ahead to the Gators as that program has in the past, LSU knows their next three games (all at home) are likely going to be the biggest factor in determining whether they can with the conference crown this season. Georgia isn't going to demand that same type of attention/focus from LSU – especially with a 10-point win over the Bulldogs already in the Tigers pocket, and it's not like LSU hasn't shown vulnerability on the road this year.
Yes, there was the road win in Kentucky, but three of LSU's other five road wins in SEC play all needed OT to be decided. The Tigers also closed as underdogs in three of those five road victories, and even their trip to Texas A&M – a comparable foe to Georgia – saw the Tigers close as just a five-point favorite. Having won that game by 15, and adding road wins @ Mississippi State and Kentucky to their resume since then, there should be a sense of urgency to avoid a letdown here.
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02-16-19 10:46 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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why line dropped ?
as noted early this morning....
Clemson +5 at Louisville
12 p.m. ET on ESPN
Louisville finds itself in the midst of a brutal stretch. After four straight games against ranked opponents (North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, at Florida State, Duke), the Cardinals still have Clemson, Syracuse and Virginia on deck. Vicious.
I think this game has flat spot written all over it for Louisville after losing two consecutive heartbreakers — both after blowing leads: first at Florida State in overtime and then at home in stunning fashion to Duke after leading by 23 halfway through the second half.
I expect a major hangover from that collapse, especially with a noon start, which should make for a more subdued crowd at the KFC Yum! Center.
Similarly, Clemson is also coming off a brutal loss at the buzzer against Miami earlier this week. However, the Tigers are playing their best basketball of the season and are, to me at least, the most undervalued team in the ACC at the moment — and one of the most undervalued in the country.
Clemson has dealt with some misfortune this year. Not only did the Tigers lose on a lucky Miami buzzer-beater in their last game, they also lost at the buzzer against NC State.
The Tigers have had some horrid free-throw luck (for and against) and really should be sitting at 7-4 in the ACC, comfortably in the tourney field. Instead, at 5-6, they could really use this win. I expect a fully focused effort from Brad Brownell’s bunch.
I also like a few things from a matchup perspective:
Clemson’s offense can struggle with turnovers, but Louisville doesn’t turn teams over (314th in steal%)
Clemson, which has length all over, has one of the best interior defenses in the country (top 20 in 2P%)
The Tigers can also force turnovers, which we all recently saw how vulnerable Louisville can be in that department
Louisville should have some negative regression coming its way in regards to opponent 3-point shooting, while the opposite can be said for Clemson, who has a number of players who have shot unusually poor compared to their career averages
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02-16-19 04:40 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Coming off a road loss to Penn State, Michigan will look to exact revenge at home on Maryland.
The Terps are just 3-3 in their last six Big Ten games, but upset Purdue as a short home underdog.
Since Feb. 7, 2017, Michigan is an incredible 33-1 (97.1%) straight-up at home, the best home winning percentage in the country in that span.
Michigan enters Saturday having won 21 straight home games. While the head coach of Michigan, John Beilein has dominated conference opponents at home, going 62-42-2 (59.6%) against the spread, including 12-3-1 (80%) ATS over the last two seasons.
Michigan is coming off a loss to Penn State in State College before its showdown Saturday against Maryland. The last time Michigan dropped consecutive games straight-up was all the way back on Feb. 4, 2017. Since then, Michigan has won thirteen consecutive games straight-up after a loss, going 9-2 against the spread in lined games.
In Mark Turgeon’s career as a head coach, his teams are 9-24 straight up and 13-19-1 ATS in matchups of Top 25 teams, including 3-17 straight up and 5-14-1 ATS when playing on the road or a neutral site
The Wolverines’ opponents have manufactured the 12th-longest average possession length (18.6 seconds) in the country because of their stingy defense, but the Terps’ prowess for playing inside-out is set up well to combat it.
Maryland should have success running its action via the low-post — similar to how Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ torched Michigan in their two meetings (22 points per game and 51.2% from the field). The Wolverines are yielding the highest 2-point scoring rate (59.9%) across Division I, and the Terrapins’ highest scoring rate (50.3%) comes from that vicinity, guided by Bruno Fernando (14.6 ppg) and Jalen Smith (12.0 ppg).
What happened to Michigan’s 3-point shooting? The Wolverines are only shooting 32.5% from beyond the arc in Big Ten conference play. This is a team that shot 50% (24 of 48) in early season wins over North Carolina and Purdue. Ignas Brazdeikis (37.9%), Jordan Poole (38.8%), and Isaiah Livers (43.8%) need to regain their efficiency against a Maryland defense that ranks 66th nationally in defending the 3-pointer.
Michigan should not be worried about turnovers, since Maryland’s defense ranks last in turnovers forced and steals within conference play. The Wolverines also need to battle on the offensive boards, which will be a challenge since Maryland is first among Big Ten teams in limiting offensive rebounds. Those second-chance opportunities are vital against a Terrapins’ defense that ranks 15th in the country in defending the 2-pointer.
While the Wolverines don’t hurt themselves with turnovers, they do struggle at the free throw line. Michigan ranks 233rd nationally with a 68.9% team FT percentage. Within conference play, however, they rank fourth at 74.4% per game.
The offensive game plan for Michigan is simple: get high-percentage shots, improve from 3P, and make foul shots. If they do those three things, the Wolverines have a great chance to cover.
Despite the spread being pretty much spot on, I do find the total interesting, especially when breaking down just the splits from the teams in conference play. These are teams that play an incredibly short rotation, and incredibly slow tempo (11th and 12th in the conference). Michigan does not turn the ball over, and Maryland doesn’t force any, and I think it’s quite possible you see very little transition play here. If the game isn’t up-and-down whatsoever, Michigan’s defense should dictate how this game is played.
Despite my total projection being very close to the current 129, I do think there may be a little bit of value in the under still, because the style of these two teams matching up is something I can’t really capture properly. It may even even slower and more defensive-minded than my numbers expect
If Michigan has an off shooting night, Maryland is going to grab every defensive rebound, where it thrives (first in defensive rebounding in conference play) and Michigan does not worry too much about the offensive glass.
Ultimately, this spot screams Michigan, but Maryland’s rebounding prowess could keep it around. It’s also worth noting that Michigan really struggles from the line as a team (a strength of Maryland), which could swing a cover given the line — although the Wolverines have shot better from the stripe since the start of Big Ten play.
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02-16-19 05:08 PM |
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