|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
EFL
QPR v Watford | Friday 15th February 2019, 19:45 | BT Sport
It is becoming an all-too familiar tale for Queens Park Rangers.
A few months ago, it looked as if a real tilt at the play-offs was possible, however that is no longer the case. They are in fact closer to the relegation zone than they are the final play-off position, but they probably are set for another mid-table campaign.
Considering the financial situation at the football club, Steve McClaren is probably doing as well as can be expected. It means the FA Cup takes on extra importance, especially with finances available and a big game against Premier League opposition in front of the cameras on Friday night.
Watford are having an excellent season in the top-flight. The top six are very much in their own league, but the Hornets find themselves second in the ‘best of the rest’; sitting behind Wolves.
Javi Gracia has embraced the job since his surprise appointment and he has turned the Hornets into a well-drilled outfit. Get past this round and then the FA Cup very much looks like a realistic prospect for them.
Banana skin territory?
This is probably a draw that both teams are relatively happy with. QPR are at home, whilst Watford will be glad to avoid one of the bigger clubs such as Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea.
It certainly falls into the banana skin category for the Premier League team. The reality is that Watford are now an established team in that league and they will be expected to win this game. They have won both their FA Cup games 2-0, both away from home, in the competition so far, and they’d gladly take a repeat.
They shall be wary of the fact that QPR will be up for this and they should embrace the underdog mentality. However, they had to play in midweek away in Bristol City, where they suffered a last-minute defeat. Watford have had a full week to prepare.
Watford are odds-on to win this game – ehilst that is understandable, it is just not a price I can get into. This is the FA Cup and there is still some magic in the air from time-to-time. QPR can win this game, but Watford are undoubtedly a better team, and if they perform then they should get the job done. The fact that this game has to be decided on the night adds a little more spice to the occasion as well.
Hornets can conquer
QPR have certainly reserved their stronger displays for Loftus Road for quite some time now. Twenty-three of their 39 Championship points has come here. Whilst that is the case, it is still one of the lower home points tallies in the league. Only six teams have fewer points on home soil. QPR have shipped four goals in each of their last two Championship home games. Possibly being without Joel Lynch here would only weaken them defensively even more.
One thing Watford have been doing on the road quite well of late is score goals. In fact, in their last eight on the road in all competitions, they have netted at least two goals in six of them. They clearly retain a goal threat, whilst they also hold one of the stronger away records in the Premier League.
I don’t picture an upset on this occasion, but it certainly would not surprise me if one did arrive. Watford to win and Over 1.5 Goals is my selection at 7/5 (Coral).
Watford are the side I want to be with. Games at Loftus Road always seem to end up quite end-to-end and if that is to happen again, it should really be favouring Watford – 85% of Watford’s Premier League games and 73% of QPR’s home league games have beat the 1.50 goal line.
|
02-15-19 07:50 AM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
La Liga
Barcelona (-630) and Real Madrid (-510) are mammoth home favorites this weekend and oddsmakers don’t expect either to slip up. However, Barcelona will be without midfielder Arthur, and they may be cautious with the rest of the squad since a Champions League match against Lyon looms on Tuesday.
Another thing to keep in mind for the weekend is that several teams will be playing Europa League matches on Thursday: Valencia, Villarreal, Sevilla and Real Betis. Injuries and/or lineup changes could easily sway the odds, so bettors will need to be aware of what happens in those games.
So far, clubs seeing the most line movement in their favor have been Atletico Madrid (-140), Atletico Bilbao (+150) and Leganes (+330).
After slipping up two weeks ago, Juventus have already retained their 11-point lead at the top of Serie A. Napoli don’t appear likely to make up any ground this weekend, either, as Juventus are listed as considerable -785 favorites against Frosinone.
The bad news continues for Napoli as all-time leading scorer Marek Hamsik is officially off to China to play for Dalian Yifang. Bettors may also want to be careful with the top clubs since Napoli, Inter Milan and Lazio all play Europa League matches on Thursday (Feb. 14).
The biggest line moves of the weekend have actually been toward Sassuolo (+170), Genoa (+275), Sampdoria (+560) and Torino (+760), so clearly sharp bettors are banking on a Europa League hangover for clubs like Napoli and Lazio.
|
02-16-19 09:24 AM |
|
|
| |
|
Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
|
Bundesliga 2-16-2019 Saturday
3* Hertha vs Werder Bremen Draw +234
Nice Draw prospect for Saturday.These two teams are neck and neck in standings and have played to 3 draws in last 6 meetings.ML on game also makes strong inference this game will be close and when each teams last 5 games are combined they have played 50% draws over that span. At +234 I will take my chances. GL
|
02-16-19 03:07 PM |
|
|
| |
|
Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
|
GL on Wolfsburg. I actually looked at Mainz @ +364 on ML as this series has 6 straight draws and Mainz has lost their last two games by cumulative 8-1 margin,so plenty of motivation for them but a pass for me.
|
02-16-19 03:30 PM |
|
|
| |
|
Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
|
Bundesliga 2-16-2019 Saturday
3* Hertha vs Werder Bremen Draw +234 W
I know not to press luck too much so its one and done here for the day!
|
02-16-19 09:39 PM |
|
|
| |
|