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msudogs
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Bundesliga, La Liga, Weekend Soccer 2/15-2/18

let's get the weekend going on Friday
GL

Old Post 02-15-19 12:10 AM
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msudogs
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EFL

QPR v Watford | Friday 15th February 2019, 19:45 | BT Sport
It is becoming an all-too familiar tale for Queens Park Rangers.

A few months ago, it looked as if a real tilt at the play-offs was possible, however that is no longer the case. They are in fact closer to the relegation zone than they are the final play-off position, but they probably are set for another mid-table campaign.

Considering the financial situation at the football club, Steve McClaren is probably doing as well as can be expected. It means the FA Cup takes on extra importance, especially with finances available and a big game against Premier League opposition in front of the cameras on Friday night.

Watford are having an excellent season in the top-flight. The top six are very much in their own league, but the Hornets find themselves second in the ‘best of the rest’; sitting behind Wolves.

Javi Gracia has embraced the job since his surprise appointment and he has turned the Hornets into a well-drilled outfit. Get past this round and then the FA Cup very much looks like a realistic prospect for them.

Banana skin territory?
This is probably a draw that both teams are relatively happy with. QPR are at home, whilst Watford will be glad to avoid one of the bigger clubs such as Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea.

It certainly falls into the banana skin category for the Premier League team. The reality is that Watford are now an established team in that league and they will be expected to win this game. They have won both their FA Cup games 2-0, both away from home, in the competition so far, and they’d gladly take a repeat.

They shall be wary of the fact that QPR will be up for this and they should embrace the underdog mentality. However, they had to play in midweek away in Bristol City, where they suffered a last-minute defeat. Watford have had a full week to prepare.

Watford are odds-on to win this game – ehilst that is understandable, it is just not a price I can get into. This is the FA Cup and there is still some magic in the air from time-to-time. QPR can win this game, but Watford are undoubtedly a better team, and if they perform then they should get the job done. The fact that this game has to be decided on the night adds a little more spice to the occasion as well.

Hornets can conquer
QPR have certainly reserved their stronger displays for Loftus Road for quite some time now. Twenty-three of their 39 Championship points has come here. Whilst that is the case, it is still one of the lower home points tallies in the league. Only six teams have fewer points on home soil. QPR have shipped four goals in each of their last two Championship home games. Possibly being without Joel Lynch here would only weaken them defensively even more.

One thing Watford have been doing on the road quite well of late is score goals. In fact, in their last eight on the road in all competitions, they have netted at least two goals in six of them. They clearly retain a goal threat, whilst they also hold one of the stronger away records in the Premier League.

I don’t picture an upset on this occasion, but it certainly would not surprise me if one did arrive. Watford to win and Over 1.5 Goals is my selection at 7/5 (Coral).

Watford are the side I want to be with. Games at Loftus Road always seem to end up quite end-to-end and if that is to happen again, it should really be favouring Watford – 85% of Watford’s Premier League games and 73% of QPR’s home league games have beat the 1.50 goal line.

Old Post 02-15-19 07:50 AM
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HoustonFan
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Friday

Accrington @ Sunderland (Eng Lg 1)

Accy failed to find the back of the net in past five outings in all competitions. They won just one, drew two and lost six of past nine matches across competitions as a consequence of the poor attacking form.

The latest of Accy’s failures came on Saturday when they fell 2-0 to 13th-placed S****horpe United on the road.

Stanley failed to score in any of last four away fixtures in League One. The Black Cats should be in a nice position to maintain their fine defensive form given they shipped just one goal in past three games.

Furthermore, Sunderland are yet to lose the home fixture in this term of the competition. They won 8 and drew 6 of 14 league outings at Stadium of Light conceding only 12 goals along the way. The home win has to be the way to go.

Sunderland -131

Watford @ QPR - FA Cup

The visitors were much more consistent of late and we expect their highly improved defensive line to make the difference against the lower-division opposition here.

Queens Park Rangers were way too easy to break down of late and we can hardly imagine them stopping Watford’s attack led by Troy Deeney.

We will go with the away win as the main bet.

Watford -124

Frosinone @ Juventus - (Italy Ser A)

Juve won 10 and drew 2 of 12 home outings in the league so far. They are enjoying a strong attacking form coming into this fixture with relegation strugglers. Bianconeri bagged three goals in each of last two league outings. They shipped only eight in twelve home matches so far in the season.

Frosinone, on the other side, notched only 11 goals in 12 away fixtures. We must mention four of these eleven goals were scored recently in a 0-4 victory over ten-man Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara. It’s hard to believe they would have scored so many goals had Bologna played with full strength there.

Juventus -750

I will parlay these three risking 1 to win 2.6.

The first two could be played separately.

Old Post 02-15-19 01:24 PM
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msudogs
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La Liga

Barcelona (-630) and Real Madrid (-510) are mammoth home favorites this weekend and oddsmakers don’t expect either to slip up. However, Barcelona will be without midfielder Arthur, and they may be cautious with the rest of the squad since a Champions League match against Lyon looms on Tuesday.

Another thing to keep in mind for the weekend is that several teams will be playing Europa League matches on Thursday: Valencia, Villarreal, Sevilla and Real Betis. Injuries and/or lineup changes could easily sway the odds, so bettors will need to be aware of what happens in those games.

So far, clubs seeing the most line movement in their favor have been Atletico Madrid (-140), Atletico Bilbao (+150) and Leganes (+330).

After slipping up two weeks ago, Juventus have already retained their 11-point lead at the top of Serie A. Napoli don’t appear likely to make up any ground this weekend, either, as Juventus are listed as considerable -785 favorites against Frosinone.

The bad news continues for Napoli as all-time leading scorer Marek Hamsik is officially off to China to play for Dalian Yifang. Bettors may also want to be careful with the top clubs since Napoli, Inter Milan and Lazio all play Europa League matches on Thursday (Feb. 14).

The biggest line moves of the weekend have actually been toward Sassuolo (+170), Genoa (+275), Sampdoria (+560) and Torino (+760), so clearly sharp bettors are banking on a Europa League hangover for clubs like Napoli and Lazio.

Old Post 02-16-19 09:24 AM
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Bundesliga

The Bundesliga hardly ever disappoints, and last weekend was filled with plenty of drama as Dortmund blew a 3-0 lead at home against Hoffenheim.

Bayern Munich were ecstatic with that result since it brought them to within five points of first place. Dortmund are still the slight favorites to win the league at -120 odds but Bayern are right behind at +100.

This weekend is full of big favorites with seven clubs listed at -130 or higher on the moneyline, led by Bayern (-360), Leverkusen (-245) and Dortmund (-240). The league tends to be noted for its goal-scoring and exciting gameplay, and six of the 10 matches this weekend have an over/under listed of three goals or higher.

The biggest line shifts have been toward Wolfsburg (-140), RB Leipzig (-150) and Freiburg (+345). As of now, I tend to agree with all three of those market movers.

Old Post 02-16-19 09:26 AM
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France Ligue 1: PSG are back to winning ways and their lead in France’s Ligue 1 is up to 10 points with two games in hand on the rest of the league.

PSG also have an absurd +55 goal differential in domestic play, and are coming off a decisive 2-0 win at Manchester United in the Champions League. This weekend poses a bit of a problem as they’re just -155 at St. Etienne, but the lead at the top of the league appears to be very safe.

Old Post 02-16-19 09:26 AM
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Netherlands Eredivisie: The top teams struggled last weekend with Ajax losing at Heracles, 1-0, and PSV drawing at Utrecht, 2-2.

PSV did manage to extend the lead at the top of the table to six points over Ajax with 13 matches remaining, and are now -250 favorites to win the title. Ajax are currently available at +200 odds but will need plenty of help the rest of the way.

For this weekend’s matchups, Ajax are enormous -2500 favorites at Breda, the worst club in Netherlands, while PSV are listed -275 at Heerenveen.

Old Post 02-16-19 09:26 AM
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Portugal Primeira Liga: Another disappointing draw from FC Porto last week means the gap has been narrowed to just one point over Benfica, a club that won their match 10-0 over the weekend. There are now three teams within two points at the top of the Primeira Liga: Porto (51), Benfica (50) and Braga (49).

We’ll likely see more shifting after this weekend since Braga (+225) have a difficult match at Sporting Lisbon (+120). Porto (-765) and Benfica (-255) are both big favorites to win their matches.

Old Post 02-16-19 09:28 AM
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BEST BTTS TEAMS

90% Hoffenheim
83% Raith
81% Werder Bremen
74% Genoa
74% West Brom
73% Man Utd
73% Sunderland
72% Forest Green
71% Augsburg
71% Dortmund
71% Frankfurt
71% Strasbourg
70% Celta Vigo
70% Dumbarton
69% Aston Villa

Old Post 02-16-19 11:16 AM
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Traderpro
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Bundesliga 2-16-2019 Saturday

3* Hertha vs Werder Bremen Draw +234

Nice Draw prospect for Saturday.These two teams are neck and neck in standings and have played to 3 draws in last 6 meetings.ML on game also makes strong inference this game will be close and when each teams last 5 games are combined they have played 50% draws over that span. At +234 I will take my chances. GL

Old Post 02-16-19 03:07 PM
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jdada7
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Wolfsburg getting 47% of the bets, 77% of the $ and line is moving in their favor from -111 to -127 now... taking a chance on Wolfsburg -127

Old Post 02-16-19 03:14 PM
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Traderpro
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GL on Wolfsburg. I actually looked at Mainz @ +364 on ML as this series has 6 straight draws and Mainz has lost their last two games by cumulative 8-1 margin,so plenty of motivation for them but a pass for me.

Old Post 02-16-19 03:30 PM
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HoustonFan
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Sat

Parlay - English Championship..Record 4-4 +11.1

Norwich
Sheffield
Barnsley

Risk 1 to win 2.91

Old Post 02-16-19 03:59 PM
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HoustonFan
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result

Parlay - Winner ..record 5-4 (+14.00)

Norwich
Sheffield
Barnsley

Risk 1 to win 2.91...W




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 02-16-19 06:59 PM
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msudogs
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HF

just flat out awesome
GL

Old Post 02-16-19 07:11 PM
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Traderpro
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Posts: 4375

Bundesliga 2-16-2019 Saturday

3* Hertha vs Werder Bremen Draw +234 W

I know not to press luck too much so its one and done here for the day!

Old Post 02-16-19 09:39 PM
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HoustonFan
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Sunday

POD - current record 4-4 (-.67)..Lets get into the plus with this.

Espyanyol@Valencia (Spain lg 1)

Overall, the home team look well capable of winning this. Valencia have really improved since the turn of the year and look much more like the side that easily secured a top four finish last term. They won’t be ruling out a repeat this time around and with 5 wins from 9 in all competitions and just 1 defeat, they should be full of confidence heading into this game.

Espanyol did pick up a much needed win last weekend, seeing off Rayo 2-1 at home to just ease away from the relegation scrap again. However their away form is poor and it’s just 1 win in 15 away games this season overall. They’ve only taken 1 point from their last 6 on the road in La Liga and that’s a record that looks unlikely to improve at the Mestalla Stadium.

Overall backing a rejuvenated Valencia to Win looks good here.

Valencia -132

Parlay - current record 5-4 (+14)

Frankfurt +136 (Ger 1)
Beyer Leverkusen -182 (Ger 1)
Real Madrid -564 (Spain 1)
Valencia -132 (Spain 1)
1 to win 6.5

Old Post 02-17-19 05:26 AM
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HoustonFan
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Real Madrid losing at -564 killed the parlay before I got up. Anyone who had the dog is happy




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 02-17-19 03:56 PM
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HoustonFan
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Monday

POD record 4-5 (-1.98)

Man U/Chelsea match up in FA Cup. I am backing Man U to either win or draw and BTTS.

Each of Man U's 6 matches away from home since the management change has ended in victory, with a total of 15 goals being scored in the process. Chelsea are undoubtedly one of the tougher opponents they will have faced, but with morale dampened considerably over the past month, we think they’re far too under-priced for this clash. Backing Manchester United to win looks excellent value at these prices, so we’re going for that along with a 2-1 correct score prediction.

Man U ML +266
ManU/Chelsea draw +250
Either of these hit and a profit is made
BTTS -145

Parlay - record 5-5 (+13)

Chelsea/ManU BTTS -145
Dortmund -213 (Ger 1)
Roma -223 (Italy A)
Risk 1 to win 2.6

Old Post 02-18-19 02:34 PM
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