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pshinnamon
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 6463

Need Help with Math on a Basketball system

To all I have back tested this system for a full 7 years. The results are very good but I need some help with math in testing this system to see what the best way to bet it over the long haul.

So far what I have done is use this in a 3 tier system meaning a chase of three games. Using a Bankroll of $10,000.00 for startup. I've tested several ways to bet and what I have found to be the best is as follows.
Tier one bet 4% of bankroll

Tier Two bet to win back your loss on tier one and try and win 2% on tier two.

Tier Three Bet to win back losses on tier One and Two and try and win 1% on tier three.

Below is the breakdown on the system for a 7 year period.

2006 Total Plays 31

Tier One 16 wins .516%
Tier Two 7 wins .75% combined
Tier Three 5 wins .900% Combined
Losses 3

2007 total Plays 33

Tier One 17 wins .515%
Tier Two 10 wins 81.8% combined
Tier Three 3 wins .909% combined
Losses 3

2008 Total Plays 35

Tier One 21 Wins 60%
Tier two 8 wins 82.8% combined
Tier three 5 wins 97.1% Combined
Losses 1

2009 total Plays 33

Tier one 14 wins 42.4%
Tier Two 11 wins .757% combined
Tier three 4 wins .878% combined
Losses 4

2010 Total Plays 41

tier one 22 wins .536%
Tier two 13 wins .853% combined
Tier Three 4 wins .951% combined
Losses 2

2011 total plays 36

Tier one 22 wins .611%
Tier two 12 wins .944% combined
tier three 1 win .972% combined
Losses 1

2012 Total Plays 36

Tier one 19 wins .527%
tier two 7 wins .722% Combined
Tier Three 5 wins .86 Combined
Losses 5

Results for the total 7 years is

total Plays 245
Tier one 131 Wins .534%
Tier two 68 Wins .812% combined
Tier Three 27 wins .922% combined
Losses 19

Appreciate any help that anyone can provide.

Thanks Pete




Terpman

Old Post 01-22-13 05:52 PM
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qs185
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 1866

Just in case you haven't looked at it this way:

Tier 1 131-114 53.47%
Tier 2 68-46 59.65%
Tier 3 27-19 58.70%

Old Post 01-22-13 06:28 PM
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staf
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2007
Posts: 972

Punching the numbers into the kelly formula using qs185 percentages and -110 odds gets:

tier 1 53% risk 1.3%
tier 2 59% risk 13.9%
tier 3 58% risk 11.8%

Old Post 01-22-13 06:32 PM
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qs185
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Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 1866

Here's where it gets a bit interesting. All calculations use a standard -110.

First, each tier by itself

Tier 1 131-114, net profit 5.6 units, ROI 2.08%

Just to show the math, which is the same for the rest, 131 + 114 = 245
245 * 1.1 = 269.5 units risked
5.6 (net units won) / 269.5 (units risked) = 2.08% ROI

Tier 2 68-46, net profit 17.4 units, ROI 13.88%

Tier 3 27-19, net profit 6.1 units, ROI 12.06%


Now, if you look at it as a 2 game chase instead of a 3 game chase:

Tier 1 risking 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
Tier 2 risking 2.31 units to win 1 unit (1.1 unit lost on Tier 1 plus still trying to win 1 unit is 2.1 units and then with the -110, 2.31 units)

So, a loss will be a 3.41 unit loss.

Resulting record for a 2 game chase
199-46, net profit 42.14 units, ROI 15.64%
The 42.14 net profit is 199 - (46 * 3.41) = 42.14

Old Post 01-22-13 08:09 PM
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