let's get going with a full weekend !
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Norwich v Birmingham | Friday 18th January 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Sky Sports have selected quite a good tie for Friday night coverage in this weekend’s list of Championship games. Both teams have perhaps surprised many by where they are in the league standings after 27 games of competitive action.

Norwich know a victory here would take them into second position prior to the remaining games this weekend, whilst Birmingham would only be one point outside the play-offs should they emerge victorious.

Daniel Farke deserves particular credit for how he has moulded Norwich into much more of a team this time around. Having more of a settled side has certainly played a big role in their transformation, along with some handy pre-season recruits.

The Canaries' recent form however does strike some alarm bells in the sense of them returning to how they were last season, but they remain in a great position regardless. Farke is not putting any pressure on his team by saying they are fighting for promotion, taking each game as it comes.

Garry Monk is likely to be a strong contender for Manager of the Season as things stand. The well-documented transfer embargo has prevented Birmingham from adding too many new faces to their squad during his tenure at the club.

Still, they are a side that no opposition particular enjoys facing at this level. They play to their strengths, are well-organised and on their day they can surprise a few teams. They travel to Norwich as underdogs, which won’t displease them at all, but knowing they have a chance of emerging with a positive result.

That is why I am swerving the 1×2 market on this game. Norwich are favourites and understandable so, but they are winless in five, winning just once in their last seven in all competitions. They’ve only lost twice in that period as well, once in the FA Cup to Portsmouth and the other in dramatic fashion at home to Derby, when conceding twice in added time. They remain hard to beat.

The same can be said of the Blues, with only six teams defeating them across the Championship campaign so far. One of those came last time out at home to Middlesbrough, a game where they will have felt they warranted a draw at the very least. Boro very much ‘did a job’ that day, much to the delight of Tony Pulis.

Birmingham themselves are winless in four, winning just twice in their previous eight in all competitions. As much as backing Norwich might seem the easy thing to do, you just cannot discount Birmingham too lightly. A draw would be no great shock.

Both sides can oblige
One line I do particular favour is Both Teams To Score, which is available at 10/11 (Betfred). The numbers and recent form suggests there is indeed a little value despite this ultimately remaining an odds-on selection. One thing we can generally rely upon from Norwich is for them to score. They’ve only failed to score in 11% of their league games this season. Birmingham aren’t too far behind either on 26%.

Both teams also have achieved clean sheets in roughly one-third of their league matches so far as well. Norwich have scored for eight games running, whilst Birmingham have netted in each of their last nine on the road.

Games at Carrow Road of late have been particular open as well. Their last five in the league on home soil has ended 3-4, 3-3, 3-2, 3-1 and 4-3. Birmingham offer a threat themselves away from St Andrews, scoring twice at Aston Villa, Millwall, Blackburn and Wigan over the last few months.

Carrow Road games average 3.70 goals this season, whilst BTTS has paid out in 64% of Norwich’s Championship clashes, and in over half of Birmingham’s, too.

Flying Finn can fire again
If we’re backing Norwich to find the back of the net in this match, then there is a good chance it is going to come from a certain striker. Of the 49 goals scored by the Canaries in the league, 15 has come from Finnish international forward Teemu Pukki.

He has been a revelation since arriving in East Anglia last summer and is very much the first name on Farke’s team sheet right now. He is a goal on average every 63 minutes, which is some going. Any team that has promotion aspirations needs a regular scorer and Pukki is that man.

Considering Norwich’s second highest scoring is Jordan Rhodes on six, it suggests there is a degree of pressure upon Pukki to deliver the goods, even if others do chip in from elsewhere. Considering those 15 has arrived in 24 appearances, it further enhances his reputation.

Birmingham will need to be on their A-Game for 90 minutes to keep the former Celtic man quiet over 90 minutes.

Canaries come to the fore after half-time
Now this next selection may suggest that we are edging towards a Norwich win in this game. That is not necessarily the case, but we have noticed that Norwich do often end matches quite well, with the Derby game being the exception!

Birmingham wouldn’t necessarily be too unhappy with a draw from this one, so they could start to sit back late on if the scored are levels.

We’re backing Norwich to by gung-ho in the second period and outscore the Blues over the second 45. The numbers back up the prospect of this happening as well. What is quite telling is that 78% of Norwich’s goals scored in the league this season do occur in the second half.

Over two-thirds of the goal Birmingham concede arrive in the same period as well. Those numbers don’t differ too much when focusing purely on Norwich home and Birmingham away fixtures either. Norwich Second Half Result is priced nicely at 6/5 (Betfair).

Late goal drama
In a continuing from the selection above, we do believe that a late goal will be added in the contest. We’ll keep the consolation of it possibly arriving from Birmingham but saying a goal will be scored outright.

Focusing on both teams, the one period in which they have scored the most goals is in the 76-90 (full time) period. 21/49 of Norwich’s goals (incredible numbers) and 11/39 of Birmingham’s come in this specific time frame. Birmingham tend to experience those more in home games however, as they’ve netted only four times late on in an away fixture.

The Canaries have scored 13 times in this section at home, and if Birmingham do sit back then they may invite some pressure. However, if Norwich do overcommit, then Birmingham do have the like of Che Adams and co to cause some possible damage on the break.

Looking forward to today brother! Love the read

BEST O2.5 TEAMS

78% PSG
77% Man Utd
76% Dortmund
76% Augsburg
75% Elgin
74% Berwick
74% Levante
73% Bournemouth
73% Man City
71% Bayern Munich
71% Gladbach
71% Hoffenheim
68% Atalanta
68% Barcelona

BEST BTTS TEAMS

88% Hoffenheim
88% Werder Bremen
82% Augsburg
81% Raith
78% West Brom
77% Arsenal
77% Forest Green
77% Man Utd
74% Genoa
73% Sunderland
71% Dortmund
71% Frankfurt
71% Hannover
70% Strasbourg

Newcastle v Cardiff | Saturday 19th January 2019, 15:00
St James’ Park plays host to what is likely to be an attritional encounter between Newcastle and Cardiff.

While we are still only in January, it does feel like a must-not-lose game for the home side in particular. Both these teams find themselves in the bottom five of the table and looking at the results between those sides, it looks like goals could be at a premium.

When these two met in Cardiff at the start of the season, the game finished 0-0 and other matches in this mini-league have been similarly tight. Cardiff drew 0-0 with Huddersfield in both their matches while Newcastle beat the Terriers 1-0.

Cardiff beat Southampton by the same scoreline, while Newcastle drew 0-0 with them. The Geordies recorded the same result against Fulham while Cardiff’s 4-2 victory was the only game in this eight-match sample to see more than a single goal!

The 2/1 888 are offering on Under 1.5 Goals therefore seems a little big but I actually prefer an even bigger price – 1-0 to Newcastle is 11/2 with Betfred.

Cardiff recorded their first away victory of the season last time they went on their travels, with Neil Warnock claiming it was a deserved victory (it wasn’t). Cardiff lost the Expected Goals battle 1.52 vs 0.49 and it’s fair to say they have defied the data a few times recently.

Despite facing 31 shots against Palace and their opponents recoding a xG of 2.43, the Bluebirds kept a clean sheet in South London and last week, despite recording just three shots all game and a xG of just 0.12, the Welsh side managed to avoid defeat against Huddersfield.

Newcastle’s performances and results haven’t been great at any point this season, but I do believe that in Solomon Rondon they have the one genuine Premier League forward on either side. Despite finishing last season in the relative comfort of 10th place, Newcastle were in a relegation battle for much of the season, but Rafa Benitez’s ability to win tight matches ensured they survived.

Indeed, since the start of last season, seven of their 16 victories (44%) have been by a 1-0 scoreline. Cardiff have lost four of their last 16 games in all competitions in this same way and I believe one goal will once again be enough to defeat Neil Warnock’s side.

Watford v Burnley | Saturday 19th January 2019, 15:00
While I don’t think Burnley’s three-game winning run in the Premier League is anywhere near as fortuitous as Brighton’s was earlier in the season, little moments have gone the way of the Clarets in their last couple of games. With the game locked at 1-1 Huddersfield had a player sent off against them a couple of weeks back, while last week they beat Fulham 2-1 despite officially recording a shot on-target.

This Saturday they face a Watford side that I believe will have too much attacking threat for them. The home side may have lost five games on their own patch this term, but four of them were against members of the Big Six. Their record against the rest of the league reads W4-D1-L1.

Burnley have recorded just two wins on their travels – the aforementioned game against Huddersfield and a 2-1 victory over Cardiff, where they lost the shot count 18-3. Burnley’s record away to sides outside the top half dozen reads W2-D1-L4.

8/13 for a home victory is a little skinny so I would rather add the Over 1.5 Goals angle – Watford to win and over 1.5 goals is 19/20 with Ladbrokes and has been a winner in seven of their 13 combined matches against sides in their peer group. I may also back the 2-0 and 3-0 correct scores depending on prices on the exchange come Saturday afternoon.

Bournemouth v West Ham | Saturday 19th January 2019, 15:00
A few weeks ago, I tipped up Felipe Anderson at 7/2 in the Anytime Goalscorer market. The Brazilian is just 5/2 with Betway to do so at Bournemouth on Saturday afternoon but given that the Cherries have conceded 42 goals in the league this term (only two sides have conceded more) it’s enough to get me tempted.

Anderson has eight goals in 22 league games this term and while that exceeds his Expected Goals numbers by some distance, he looks like an excellent finisher so I am relatively happy to ignore that.

I also feel like the antics of Marco Arnautovic put greater pressure on him and this is something he appeared to revel in against Arsenal last weekend. He linked up well with Samir Nasri at the London Stadium and in a match which promises to be full of goals (these two have recorded a 3-3 and a 4-3 in the last three seasons), I think Anderson is good value to get on the scoresheet.

Wolves v Leicester | Saturday 19th January 2019, 12:30 | Sky Sports
Wolves are starting to garner a reputation for performing at their best against the Premier League’s big boys, and they did so again when they beat Liverpool in the FA Cup. They’ve now won or drawn against every side in the top six in all competitions this season, but their form against the rest of the league is unpredictable.

Over 2.5 Goals has landed in just 3/14 (21%) of their games not involving the top six and they’ve won just 6/14 (43%) of those games. They’ve also had the most games involving Under 2.5 Goals in the league with 15/22 (68%), with that percentage getting even higher when they play at the Molineux (8/11 (73%)).

Nuno Espirito Santo's side also still failed to secure a deal for a centre-forward this window after the loan move for Tammy Abraham fell through, and with the team scoring just 23 goals this season and just two weeks to go until the transfer window slams shut, the need for a new striker is evident.

Leicester
Claude Puel is under some pressure at Leicester, with Brendan Rodgers and David Wagner reportedly being lined-up as replacements. You’d have to say that if they lose this game on Saturday lunchtime, Puel could possibly facing the axe.

A defeat to Southampton in their last game was poor, and although they’ve beaten Chelsea and Manchester City in recent weeks, 16 goals in 16 games isn’t quite good enough. Their away form is inconsistent (W2-D2- L2) but they have scored in eight of their last 10 games away from the King Power.

Goals don’t tend to flow in the Foxes’ games and Over 2.5 goals has landed in just 9/22 (41%) of their games and 4/11 (36%) of their away games. So I wouldn’t expect a goal fest at the Molineux.

The betting angle
I can see a tight game here and the draw looks a good price at 11/5. But I prefer the 11/2 available with Bet365 of the 1-1 draw.

Both sides have got the ability to score goals but they very rarely come in abundance so, in a tight game, I think that’s a great price.

Sheffield Wednesday v Wigan | Saturday 19th January 2019, 15:00
Sheffield Wednesday responded to Jos Luhukay’s sacking with eight points from four unbeaten Championship fixtures (W2-D2-L0) but the Owls recent resurgence came to a close last weekend as in-form Hull convincingly ran out 3-0 winners against their Yorkshire rivals at the KCOM Stadium.

Caretaker boss Steve Agnew remains in situ ahead of Steve Bruce’s arrival and he’ll be keen to put Wednesday back in the Winners Enclosure when out-of-form Wigan arrive at Hillsborough this weekend. The hosts are unbeaten at home to clubs outside the top-six (W4-D4-L0) and have only once failed to score in front of their own supporters this season.

Wigan recorded an impressive an overdue 3-0 success over Aston Villa at the DW Stadium last time out to curb relegation fears but the Latics remain just six points off the drop-zone following a run W2-D3-L9 since October’s international break. Arguably more alarming is Athletic’s woeful road record since promotion (W1-D2-L10).

Despite their improvement, the jury remains out, for me, on Wednesday and so I’ll happily overlook the Match Odds prices here and instead head towards the cards markets. We can back Wigan at 4/6 to collect 20+ Bookings Points with SkyBet and that looks like one of the best bets on the coupon this weekend.

If you’re new to Bookings Points, a yellow card is awarded 10 Bookings Points, with a red receiving 25 Bookings Points. Should a player pick up two bookings and a subsequent red, 35 Bookings Points are given. So this selection is essentially looking for Wigan to pick up two yellow cards, or a straight red to pay-out.

The visitors have committed the fifth-most fouls (13.15) in the Championship in 2018/19 and are averaging the second highest number of cards per-game (2.41). Interestingly, the Latics have been brandished with an average of 2.77 cards per away game and they’ve collected 20 Bookings Points or more in 12 of their 13 road trips.

Overall, 22/27 (81%) of Wigan’s matches this term have seen Paul Cook’s charges receive 20 Bookings Points, with an average of 25.37 per-game. On their travels, the Latics are dishing up an average of 28.46 Bookings Points and the fourth-most fouls in the division per-game (14.62).

Peter Bankes has been handed the whistle for this one. He’s overseen 17 Championship games, given eight penalties and delivered 90 yellows at an average of 5.29 per-game, as well as two straight red cards, giving him an average of 55.88 Bookings Points. Meanwhile, in eight of his last nine league games he’s given the away side at least 20 Bookings Points.

Roma v Torino | Saturday 19th January 2019, 14:00
Roma should secure another home win against Torino on Saturday evening.

The Giallorossi have a few absentees in their team, but the visitors are without several key players, especially in midfield.

That is why I really cannot see Torino going off with something from the Olimpico, and despite the Granata still being unbeaten away from home, I fancy them to lose their first away match of the season.

Roma to win and Over 1.5 Goals

Inter Milan v Sassuolo | Saturday 19th January 2019, 19:30 | Eleven Sports
This game will be played without home supporters, due to a ban from the Italian League but this should not keep the Nerazzurri away from a win.

Inter have shown a good consistency against mid-low level sides and with no particular injuries in their squad I fancy such trend to continue.

Backing goals is also a good idea when Sassuolo’s defence is involved and so I’ll take Inter Milan to win and Over 2.5 Goals

Draws suffered again in Week 22, with only Huddersfield-Cardiff ending in a stalemate.

Draws are down nearly 60 units on the season.
Leicester City (+17.12 units), Crystal Palace (+10.84 u) and Tottenham (+7.60 u) have been the most profitable clubs to bet on this year.

Fulham (-14.89 u), Huddersfield (-12.15 u) and Cardiff (-10.32 u) have been the least profitable clubs to bet this season.

Wolves vs. Leicester City (7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)

The opening match of the weekend is an exciting one for neutrals, even though neither club is in the top-six. Both are middle-of-the-table and fighting for a coveted Europa League spot, but will need some help along the way.
Wolves opened +115 around the market and odds have increased to +135 due to bets coming in on Leicester City. The Foxes are receiving 45% of tickets so it’s been a mix of public and sharp money moving the line so far.

With a low over/under of 2 goals, I’m taking the contrarian angle and going with the draw (+220).

Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)

League-leaders Liverpool have a critical home matchup against Crystal Palace on Saturday and they’re heavy -550 favorites to win. However, public bettors feel good about Palace picking up another big upset as they’re receiving nearly 30% of bets as +1530 underdogs.

Southampton vs. Everton (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)

Everton earned a much-needed win last weekend after being shutout two matches in a row, but are facing a Southampton club that may have found its stride.

The Saints also earned a fantastic victory, 2-1 on the road at Leicester City last weekend, despite playing more than a half with a man down. They’ve now picked up points against Leicester City and Chelsea in consecutive EPL matches.
Moneylines are just about the same for Everton (+170) and Southampton (+180), and bettors have been spreading their bets out on all three outcomes including the draw (+245). I don’t see much value in this game and feel like anything could happen.

Manchester United vs. Brighton (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)

Can anyone stop Manchester United now that they’ve gotten rid of Jose Mourinho? Everyone at the club seems to be clicking, while Mourinho is out there saying “Manchester United are not ready for modern football”. It’s fairly easy to see who the problem was this season.

Meanwhile, Brighton nearly got a home point against Liverpool last weekend and have been tough to crack all season long. They’ve already won seven games and have actually conceded fewer goals (30) than Manchester United (32) this year.

Brighton also fit a very profitable historical betting system based on sizable underdogs against teams on short rest. Although it’s been a rough start to the season so far, past years’ data shows that it pays to be patient on the big ‘dogs.

It’s an ugly bet, for sure, but Brighton (+1000) provides some value this weekend against a red-hot United.

Roy Hodgson is coming back to Anfield. To Liverpool fans’ relief, only as a visiting team’s manager. This Saturday afternoon, the former Reds manager will lead his Crystal Palace side to Anfield and hope to dent his former club’s title bid. His side actually did a favour for Liverpool when they beat Manchester City last month. Now the Reds will want to make sure that they do not suffer a similar fate on Saturday.

There are a few things that should trouble Liverpool and their fans at this time. They operated with a makeshift defence against Brighton in the last match as Fabinho played centre half. They will again have to make changes in defence as Trent Alexander Arnold is sidelined with an injury, meaning in the absence of Clyne and Gomez, it will be James Milner who will line up on the right side of the back four. The Reds are clearly outperforming their season averages on all counts, from xG outperformance to the number of goals conceded. Most pundits are expecting a regression to the mean in Liverpool’s performance.

Keeping their level of outperformance, especially in defence, with a makeshift back four, is going to be a challenge. But this season, Jurgen Klopp’s side has shown, at least in the league, that they are up for any challenge. That is why they are still 4 points ahead of City in the table and have entered a run of matches that will see them play Crystal Palace(H), Leicester City (H), West Ham (A), and Bournemouth (H) in 21 days. The attack is still not operating at the levels of last season but has been a handful for most opponents this season. It is safe to say that Liverpool should be confident of getting three points from Saturday’s game.

Crystal Palace, on the other hand, might also approach this fixture confidently. After all, they have beaten the current Champions in December. The Eagles have won three in the last six Premier League matches. They lost their last league game to Watford at home but have been impressive away, winning against City and Wolves away from home during this period. Palace also have an incentive to dent Liverpool’s title push. They have at least four members in their squad who have been deemed dispensable by Liverpool, including their manager. Mamadou Sakho and Christian Benteke, both were shown the door by Jurgen Klopp, while Kopites protested against Hodgson’s stewardship by staging sit-ins. On Saturday, these individuals would like it a lot if they can return to London with at least a single point if not all three.

INTERESTING STATS
Although Liverpool have won five of their last six Premier League games against Crystal Palace, including the last three in a row, they have never won four consecutively against the Eagles in the top flight. Crystal Palace have also won on three of their last four league visits to Anfield, though they did lose this fixture last season.
Liverpool are looking to win seven consecutive Premier League home games for the first time since January 2014. They are also looking to stretch their 31-game unbeaten run in the Premier League at home. However, the club record – 63 home games unbeaten between February 1978 and December 1980, is still very far away.
Liverpool have not conceded more than once in any of their 16 Premier League home games, keeping 12 clean sheets. Palace on the other hand, have failed to score in six of their last seven Premier League games against sides starting the day top (W1 D1 L5), with the exception being a 2-1 win at Chelsea in April 2017.
Crystal Palace are looking to win three consecutive away Premier League games for the first time since May/August 2015, and the first time within the same season since February 2015.
KEY MEN
SADIO MANE

Sadio Mane was pipped to the award of Africa’s best player by his teammate Salah but he still came in second. While not as prolific as last season, he still has scored 8 goals and assisted one in 1677 Premier League minutes across 20 appearances this season. He also likes to play against Palace. He has scored more Premier League goals (6) against Palace than he has against any other side in the competition. He has also scored in his last three Premier League games against the Eagles but he has never scored in four in a row against a single opponent before. An xG90+xA90 of 0.56 suggests that if he plays all 90 minutes, he has a good chance of contributing a goal on Saturday.

WILFRIED ZAHA
Playing Liverpool at Anfield and hoping to return with at least a point means that Crystal Palace have to find a way around the most miserly defence in the land and for that to happen, Wilfried Zaha will need to be in top form for Palace. He has scored thrice and assisted one goal so far in the league and his xG90 + xA90 of 0.30 also seems decent given how defence minded Hodgson can be.

TEAM NEWS
For Liverpool, Trent Alexander-Arnold has been ruled out for four weeks with a knee injury. With Joe Gomez still sidelined and Nathaniel Clyne now out on loan, James Milner is expected to fill in at right-back. Georginio Wijnaldum is doubtful due to a knee injury he suffered in the game against Brighton. But that will still not allow Keita to come in, as Fabinho will move back to midfield and now fit Joel Matip should be able to start.

Crystal Palace have to rely on their third-choice keeper – Julian Speroni to fill in for the injured Vicente Guaita and Wayne Hennessey, both of whom are sidelined with injuries. Christian Benteke came off the bench against Watford last weekend to make his first Crystal Palace appearance since the start of September. He will be keen to face his former club here.

VERDICT
Even if Liverpool regress a bit towards mean in terms of defence or even attack, they should be able to beat Crystal Palace on Saturday.

LIVERPOOL 2 – 1 CRYSTAL PALACE

390803452
SOC Liverpool FC -1.75 -117

must wonder what was going on at the end Southhampton/Everton things that make you go hmmmm
GL