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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Watching this Uruguay game helps me understand why peoples eyebrows get raised.Some of these chances Uruguay missing are interesting to say least.Glad I missed the Uruguay euphoria.
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06-15-18 03:35 PM |
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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Draw backers were certainly deserving in first two games but robbed.
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06-15-18 07:20 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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France vs. Australia (6 a.m. ET), Group C
France opened as hefty -450 favorites back in December, but odds have come down to -375. Australia has attracted nearly 20% of moneyline bets, and the market has taken notice, dropping the odds on the Socceroos from +1785 to +1000.
On the goal-line, France (-1.5) is getting nearly 90% of the action, so a one-goal victory is probably the preferred result for sportsbooks.
Argentina vs. Iceland (9 a.m. ET), Group D
There hasn’t been a ton of line movement in this one, but Argentina has moved from -267 to -285, and peaked at -310 a few weeks ago. Most of the betting tickets (78% moneyline, 78% spread) have come in on the South Americans to claim a victory, but that’s expected of the big favorites.
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06-16-18 08:58 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Argentina vs. Iceland, 9 a.m. ET Saturday, FOX
Argentina -280
Iceland +1053
Draw +411
Bet To Watch:
Argentina -1.5 goals (+115)
Argentina enters the 2018 World Cup with loaded expectations, but will have to navigate it one game at a time in a difficult Group D. They were less than perfect in 2014 and nearly beat Germany in extra time of the final, so Leo Messi and company will want redemption. At +950, they have the fifth-best odds to lift the trophy, and begin the group stage as -280 favorites to beat Iceland in their first head-to-head meeting.
The South American squad has been hampered by recent injuries, including starting goalie Sergio Romero and midfielder Manuel Lanzini, who have been replaced by Willy Caballero and Enzo Perez, respectively. The key man is obviously Messi, but in reality the pressure is on the defenders and midfielders to get him the ball in prime positions. They’ve got plenty of scoring options up top with Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain and Paulo Dybala, it’s just a matter of how head coach Jorge Sampaoli will use them all. The potential for everything to come together is still there.
Iceland comes in with less external pressure, but will still have internal pressure to progress. They won their European qualifying group and made a quarterfinal run at Euro 2016, so expectations are high. They’re the smallest nation (population-wise) to ever reach a World Cup but still have aspirations of reaching the next round. However, odds aren’t exactly in their favor as they’re +1038 to pull off the upset over Argentina and +411 to draw.
With the moneylines so high, it’s no surprise to see public bettors on Argentina (76% moneyline, 80% spread). They can’t afford a slow start in this group and absolutely need to win the opener, and they won’t be underestimating the Europeans. Iceland will also have to take some chances if they go down early, bank on Argentina to win by multiple goals
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06-16-18 09:18 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Peru vs. Denmark, 12 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox Sports 1
Peru +238
Denmark +141
Draw +223
Bet To Watch:
Peru +0.5 goals (-155)
This is a big match for Peru to start the tournament off right, especially since they play France in the second game as big underdogs. Denmark will play Australia next and is expected to win, so a victory over Peru would put them in the driver’s seat to the Round of 16. These two countries will be meeting for the first time, and both enter with 15-match unbeaten streaks.
Peru recently received news that one of their top players and all-time leading goalscorer, Paolo Guerrero, would be returning to the team due to a successful drug-suspension appeal. That’s a huge boost for a team that was already coming into the tournament ready to make some noise, and it has also had an effect on match odds and futures.
The moneyline on Peru to beat Denmark has already dropped considerably over the last couple months, just like the South Americans’ odds to advance from Group C. Peru has become somewhat of a trendy underdog pick, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t early value on them — I grabbed them at +260 to advance but sharp money has moved them to +150.
Public bettors are all over Peru in the opening match, too, representing nearly 50% of all moneyline tickets around the market. Along with sharp money hitting the Peruvians, the odds have dwindled from +276 to +231
They’re definitely trendy underdogs in this matchup, but I agree with the public consensus here. Instead of risking Peru to win straight up, I love the value on +0.5 (-155) which includes the draw as well.
A low total of 2 (o-135) indicates that this may be a low-scoring game, and both teams will deploy similar 4-3-2-1 formations. A draw wouldn’t be the worst result for either side, but both should be going for the win. Denmark will have the edge in the air, but Peru are a scrappy bunch that will fight for everything.
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06-16-18 09:20 AM |
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