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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 4

8:20 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona
St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Arizona


Sunday, October 7

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home
Indianapolis is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 15 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 13 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
CHICAGO vs. JACKSONVILLE
Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
Seattle is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
New England is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Denver
New England is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

4:15 PM
BUFFALO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo

4:25 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MINNESOTA
Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing San Diego
New Orleans is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games


Monday, October 8

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY JETS
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-05-12 01:07 AM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday's game
Cardinals (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)-- Arizona has now won last 10 games that were decided by less than 7 points; three of their four wins this year came down to last minute, so long travel on short work week could be dicey, seeing how Rams won both home games (albeit both wins came vs rookie QBs). Cardinals won 10 of last 11 series games, winning last seven visits here by average score of 29-20, but these Rams aren't those Rams, having forced 8 turnovers in four games (+2). Problem for St Louis is porous OL; they've run ball for just 134 yards on 44 carries (3.0/carry) in last two games, scoring one TD, and that on 52-yard drive. Home teams are 10-12 vs spread in divisional games so far this season. Average total in last four series games was 32.5.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-05-12 01:08 AM
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CNOTES
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NFL

Week 5

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Thursday Night Football: Cardinals at Rams
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Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+1, 39.5)

THE STORY: The Arizona Cardinals try to become the first team to five wins as they bring their perfect record into the Edward Jones Dome to face the NFC West-rival St. Louis Rams on Thursday.

Arizona remained one of three undefeated clubs in the league with a wild 24-21 overtime victory at home over Miami in Week 4. The Cardinals extended their home winning streak to eight games, the longest run for the franchise since the 1925 Chicago Cardinals captured nine in a row.

St. Louis is coming off a spirited home triumph over Seattle in which it scored its only touchdown on a fake field-goal attempt. The rest of the offense came from rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein, who booted four field goals. Zuerlein twice set the franchise record for the longest field goal, booting a 58-yarder in the first quarter before hitting from 60 yards in the third. The Rams had lost four straight and 13 of 14 against the Seahawks prior to Sunday.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Oddsmakers opened the Rams as high as 2.5-point home underdogs but that spread has been bet down to +1. The total has climbed from 38.5 to 39.5.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent of consensus players are on Arizona Thursday night.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-0, 3-1 ATS): The team is off to its best start since 1974, when it won its first seven games while based in St. Louis. Quarterback Kevin Kolb overcame eight sacks against the Dolphins to throw three touchdown passes, including a 15-yarder to Andre Roberts on 4th-and-2 with 22 seconds remaining in regulation. The Cardinals' running game was virtually non-existent as they gained 28 yards on the ground. Safety Adrian Wilson returned to action after missing a game with an ankle injury and made eight tackles while also recording a sack. Arizona registered four sacks, marking the NFL-best 10th straight game it has notched at least two.

ABOUT THE RAMS (2-2, 3-1 ATS): Rookie punter Johnny Hekker, who was a quarterback in high school, threw St. Louis' lone touchdown pass Sunday. With Seattle expecting Zuerlein to boot his second field goal of the game, Hekker tossed the ball to a wide-open Danny Amendola for a 2-yard score. The Rams already have matched their win total from last season, when they finished tied with Indianapolis with a league-worst 2-14 record. They are 2-0 this year at home, where they were victorious just once in 2011.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in St. Louis.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald matched Mel Gray's franchise record Sunday by catching a pass in his 121st consecutive game.

2. Zuerlein is a perfect 12-for-12 on field-goal attempts.

3. Arizona has posted five overtime victories during its eight-game home winning streak.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-05-12 01:10 AM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 5

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Tale of the tape: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
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The NFC West takes the Thursday night stage for a showdown between the undefeated Arizona Cardinals and the improving St. Louis Rams. Here’s the tale of the tape for this divisional matchup:

Offense

The Cardinals are on their second QB of the season after No. 1 John Skelton went down with an ankle injury in Week 1. Kevin Kolb has stepped in under center, helping Arizona to a 4-0 mark. Kolb has a 7-2 TD-to-INT ratio, a 62.6 percent completion rate and a QB rating of 97.6. It helps having a WR like Larry Fitzgerald (245 yards, two TDs) and a budding target in Andre Roberts, who has hauled in four TD catches. The Cardinals' rushing attack is ranked 28th in the league, averaging only 68.8 yards per game. Rookie Ryan Williams leads the team with 131 yards but has already fumbled twice.

The Rams offense is among the worst in the NFL, averaging only 19.8 points on 287 yards per game. Quarterback Sam Bradford has struggled the past two games, posting a 52.4 completion rate, zero TDs and three INTs. St. Louis’ big offensive weapon, RB Steven Jackson, has been slowed due to injury, rushing for only 195 yards - 3.3 yards per carry – and has failed to find the end zone.

Edge: Arizona


Defense

Arizona’s stop unit has a bend-but-don’t-break mentality, sitting 17th in yards allowed (357 per game) but third in points allowed (15.2 per game). The Cardinals’ speedy pass rush is getting to opposing QBs, totaling 16 sacks on the year so far – second most in the NFL. Linebacker Sam Acho leads the team with three QB kills. Arizona is allowing 101 yards on the ground per game, 14th in the NFL, and locked Miami down for just 86 yards rushing in Week 4. The Cardinals have forced seven fumbles, recovering six of those – one for a TD.

St. Louis is among the best ball-hawking teams in the league, picking off eight passes through the first four weeks of the schedule. Three of those came against Detroit last week. Corner Cortland Finnegan has three INTs in his first four games since being acquired this offseason. While the pass defense has been respectable, the Rams have been rolled by the run, giving up 135.2 yards per game on the ground. Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch rumbled for 118 yards and a TD against St. Louis last Sunday.

Edge: St. Louis


Special teams

Arizona kicker Jay Feely gave the Cardinals a 24-21 win over Miami in overtime with a 46-yard FG. He’s 7-for-7 on the season and is 3-for-3 on FGs of more than 40 yards this season. Arizona has punted a league-high 26 times, averaging 47.5 yards per punt. On the other side of that, the Cardinals have averaged only 7.9 yards per punt return and 24.9 yards per kickoff return. Top return man Patrick Peterson’s longest punt return has been 17 yards.

The Rams have also been perfect on FGs with kicker Greg Zuerlein going 12 for 12, including going 3 for 3 from 50-plus yards. St. Louis is averaging 46.6 yards per punt while allowing foes to return those for just 8.2 yards per punt. The Rams return team ranks last in the league in kickoff returns (17.8 yards per) and 18th in punt returns (9.1 yards per). Receiver Danny Amendola has been fielding punts, with his biggest return standing at 22 yards this season.

Edge: Draw


Word on the street

“Honestly, it’s going to feel the same as any other game. It doesn’t matter how many people are watching, you just go out there play the game." – St. Louis K Greg Zuerlein about kicking under the pressure of a primetime game.

“That’s the confidence we have late in games. Our offense believes in our defense and our defense believes in our offense. That’s what helps us win.” – Arizona WR Andre Roberts on the team’s success late in games.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-05-12 01:11 AM
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CNOTES
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NFL

Thursday, October 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arizona - 8:20 PM ET St. Louis +2 500

St. Louis - Over 39 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-05-12 01:25 AM
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NFL Tech Trends - Week 5

October 4, 2012


Thursday, Oct. 4 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cards won and covered both meetings LY. Big Red 11-2 SU last 13 and 10-4 vs. spread last 14 since mid 2011. Both "under" 3-1 TY. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Skins "over" 8-2-1 last 11 since late 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Andy Reid 5-2 last seven as pick or dog. Tomlin has covered only 8 of last 21 on board since late 2010, though he is 6-3 vs. number at home since last season (bigger problems vs. spread on road). Steel also now "under" 6-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Under," based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack now no covers last three away from home and just 5-6 last 11 on board since late 2011. Pack also "over" 46-26 since 2007 for McCarthy (14-7 "over" since 2011). "Over," based on extended Pack 'totals" trends.

Browns have only dropped one spread decision (2-1-1) thus far with Weeden at QB in 2012. Brownies also "under" 3-1 TY and now "under" 17-7-1 since late in the 2010 campaign. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Dolphins 6-1 vs. line last 6 away since mid 2011 and 9-3-1 last 13 on board. Cincy 4-3-1 as chalk since LY after 6-20 mark in role from 2007-10. Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

Baltimore has covered 5 of last 7 away, and Ravens 7-4 "over" last 11 on road. Ravens and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 30 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll "under" 4-0 TY, Seahawks also 8-1 last nine as "short" since mid 2011. Seattle also 13-5 last 18 overall vs. number. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Bears "under" 7-3 last 10 on road, Jags "under" 14-6 since 2011. Jax also just 2-6 last 8 as home dog . "Under" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

Munchak still only 7-13 vs. number since becoming Titan HC last year, also no covers last four as visitor. Titans "over" 5-1 last five since late LY. Vikes 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-7 record as chalk since 2011. Titans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Belichick won and covered big in two meetings vs. Tebow LY. Denver "over" 29-14-1 since late in 2009, Belichick "over" 30-12 since late 2009. Peyton Manning has covered 5 of his last 7 vs. Belichick. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Harbaugh 9-1-1 vs. line at home since LY. Chan just 2-5 vs. line last 7 away. Bills "over" 9-4 last 13 away. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Saints "over" 19-11 last 30, Norv "over" 10-2 last 12 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 8 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Kubiak 4-0 SU and vs. line TY and now 18-5 vs. points last 23 on board. Rexy only 2-5-1 as dog since LY. Texans, based on recent Kubiak trends.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:23 AM
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Gridiron Angles - Week 5

October 5, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Titans are 11-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since October 8, 2006 following a game where they were 7+-point dogs.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 11-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 22, 1998 following a game where they trailed by double digits after the first quarter and scored less points than expected.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Oregon St. is 14-0 ATS (16.0 ppg) since October 16, 1999 when they have three wins on the season and one team is favored.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Eastern Michigan is 0-12 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since 1996 when they covered by 15+ points last game and aren’t 26+ point underdogs, if they are no better than .500 on the season.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which have thrown for less than 150 yards in each of the last three games are 131-96-5 ATS. Active on Seattle.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Dolphins are 16-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) since November 2006 as a dog off a game in which their defense stifled at least ten third down attempts and recorded at least one sack.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:25 AM
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Total Talk - Week 5

October 6, 2012

Week 4 Recap

Gamblers watched the ‘over’ go 8-7 last week and a lot of the games were either hurt or helped with second-half outputs. Anybody chasing ‘over’ tickets were certainly pleased last week, as the ‘over’ went 10-5 in the second-half.

It’s safe to say that when you see those lopsided results, you know some ‘under’ tickets were tough losses, in particular the Miami-Arizona outcome. The Dolphins and Cardinals ‘under’ was definitely the right side and the score was 13-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Sure enough, some huge plays and key fourth-quarter conversions helped the score get knotted at 21 and that was all that was needed to go ‘over’ the closing total of 40 ½ points.

On the year, the ‘under’ stands at 32-31 through 63 games. Keep in mind that there are only 14 games this week with four teams on bye and all of the contests are non-divisional.

Off the Bye

Two teams, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, weren’t in action last week due to their byes. We bring that to your attention because the ‘under’ went 24-8 (75%) last season in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.

One reason that can be argued is the new rules created by the NFLPA, which mandates that players must receive four consecutive days off at one point during their bye week. In simple terms, just because a team is off doesn’t mean that they’ll be prepared.

The Steelers host the Eagles on Sunday and the number has already dropped (see below). Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 this season while the Eagles have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1. Surprisingly, Philadelphia’s defense is playing better than the offense this season.

If Indianapolis wants to win this weekend, most would believe that it will have to score some serious points at home against Green Bay. The Colts allowed 20 and 22 points in their first two home games and that came against inferior attacks in the Vikings and Jaguars. However, the Packers’ offense isn’t clicking this season, especially when you compare it to last year’s numbers. To put things in perspective, Green Bay scored 30 or more points in 11 of its 17 games. Through four games this season, the Packers haven’t busted the 30-point barrier and the total is hovering on the high side of 48.

Early Tendencies

Washington has started the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets. Oddsmakers have been tweaking numbers with the Redskins’ totals all season and this week is no different. The line for Week 5’s game against Atlanta opened at 52 and took an early hit down to 50 but has bounced back up to 51 ½ points. Perhaps some pundits are expecting rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III to hit a wall. It hasn’t happened so far and another great component for ‘over’ tickets is a shaky defense and that’s what the Redskins have. The unit is allowing 415 YPG and 30.8 PPG, plus the pass rush has only generated seven sacks in four games. If Atlanta’s Matt Ryan gets time on Sunday, another 30-spot could easily be posted in D.C.

Seattle has proven to us that it has a legit defense (14.5 PPG) and an offense that’s very limited. Similar to Washington, the Seahawks are using a rookie quarterback as well. Unfortunately, Russell Wilson (4 INTs, 4 TDs) hasn’t had much success in his debut season, especially on third-down conversions (28%). When you combine these facts, it usually produces low-scoring affairs. With that being said, we shouldn’t be surprised that Seattle is a perfect 4-0 to the ‘under’ this season. This week, the Seahawks will head back on the road to face Carolina, who has the ability to score. The total opened at 44 and dropped quickly (see below) and you can certainly understand why. This will be the third road game of the season for Seattle, who scored 16 and 13 points in the first two games as a visitor.

Line Moves

After watching the early money go 7-1 in Week 3, the sharps weren’t exactly sharp in Week 4. In the eight totals that saw line moves (up or down) of 1 ½-points or more, only the Seattle-St. Louis ‘under’ was the correct call. Below are the Week 4 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday night.

Philadelphia-Pittsburgh: Line opened at 44 ½ and dropped to 43
Miami-Cincinnati: Line opened at 44 and jumped to 45 ½
Tennessee-Minnesota: Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Seattle-Carolina: Line opened at 44 and dropped to 42 1/2

Under the Lights

The Eagles-Giants matchup on SNF started slow and wound up going 'under’ the closing number of 46 but could’ve gotten there with some help. On Monday, the Bears and Cowboys certainly got help from mistakes. Chicago led 3-0 late in the second quarter before Dallas gave up four big plays, two of them coming with interception returns for touchdowns. What looked like an easy ‘under’ turned into an ‘over’ ticket.

Through 14 games, the ‘under’ stands at 10-4 (71%) in primetime games this season. Bettors could be looking at a shootout on SNF, when New Orleans and San Diego clash from “The Big Easy.” The total (53) is the highest on the board and could get there easily if they convert touchdowns and not field goals.

Fearless Predictions

We juiced out last week and with a couple bounces, we probably could’ve swept the board again. You don’t get paid for close-calls, so we’ll accept the 20 cents ($20) loss. Overall, we’re still up $160 and looking to bounce back. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: San Diego-New Orleans 53

Best Under: Chicago-Jacksonville 41

Best Team Total: Over 28 New Orleans

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 San Diego-New Orleans
Under 50 Chicago-Jacksonville
Under 54 Miami-Cincinnati




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:28 AM
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Week 5 Tips

October 5, 2012

One month is in the books inside the NFL season as only two teams remain unbeaten following Arizona's loss at St. Louis on Thursday. The Falcons look to move to 5-0 with a trip to Washington, while the Texans are long favorites on Monday night against the Jets. Four favorites on Sunday are attempting to avoid a letdown when they take on inferior opponents, as we'll see if these public teams are solid bets this weekend.

Falcons (-3, 51 ½) at Redskins - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta rolled through its first three opponents (Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego), but had its struggles in a 30-28 home victory over Carolina last week as seven-point favorites. The Falcons head to the Nation's Capital to take on electric rookie Robert Griffin III and a Redskins' squad that is 2-2 through four weeks.

Washington won and covered each opportunity as an underdog this season at New Orleans and Tampa Bay, while staving off the Buccaneers with a game-winning field goal in last Sunday's 24-22 victory. The Redskins are playing only their second game at FedEx Field, as Mike Shanahan's club lost in the favorite role in Week 3 to the Bengals, 38-31, as Washington is a perfect 4-0 to the 'over' this season.

The Falcons have scored at least 27 points in all four games, but the 'over' sits at just 2-2. Mike Smith's squad owns a 10-5 ATS record as a road favorite since 2008, including a victory at Kansas City in the season opener. Atlanta is making its first trip to D.C. since 2006, when the Falcons beat the Redskins, 24-14 as one-point underdogs, a game that dates back to the famed Jim Mora, Jr. era.

Ravens (-6, 46 ½) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore has been off since last Thursday night's home victory over Cleveland, as the Ravens head to Kansas City for the first time since knocking off the Chiefs in the Wild Card round in January 2011. Two teams have lost three games by double-digits this season, as both the Chiefs and Titans search for their second win on Sunday.

Romeo Crennel's team has failed to be competitive in three losses to the Falcons, Chargers, and Bills, while needing to rally from an 18-point deficit to force overtime in a victory at New Orleans. The Chiefs haven't cashed in any loss this season, but Kansas City has compiled a 6-3 ATS record as an underdog at Arrowhead Stadium since 2010. Due to an atrocious defensive effort through four games, the 'over' is 3-1 so far, while the Chiefs have allowed at least 35 points in all three defeats.

The Ravens hit the road for just the second time in 2012, as Baltimore's first away contest was a bitter 24-23 defeat at Philadelphia in Week 2. John Harbaugh's club managed a 23-16 win over the Browns in Week 4, but failed to cash as 11-point favorites. Baltimore owns a 7-4 ATS record the last 11 in the role of road 'chalk,' including the 30-7 rout of the Chiefs to advance to the second round of the 2011 postseason.

Bears (-4 ½, 41) at Jaguars - 4:05 PM EST

An interesting spot for Chicago, coming off Monday's dominating performance as a road 'dog at Dallas. The Bears crushed the Cowboys, 34-18, while intercepting Tony Romo five times, including returning two of those picks for touchdowns. Now, the Bears head to North Florida for a late kickoff with the struggling Jaguars, who fell by 17 points to the Bengals in Week 4.

Lovie Smith's club has put together an impressive 3-1 ATS record, including a pair of double-digit victories in the favorite role over the Colts and Rams. Chicago faces another team in this class, as Jacksonville has scored a grand total of 17 points in two home games. The Jaguars are 3-7 SU/ATS at home off a loss since 2009, which includes a victory over the Ravens last season as a 10-point 'dog.

The Bears are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season, as Chicago is 7-3-1 ATS since 2007 when laying points away from Soldier Field. The defense has held their last two opponents (St. Louis and Dallas) to just 24 points combined, while the Bears own a 5-1 ATS record the last six opportunities as a favorite off a straight-up victory as an underdog.

Bills at 49ers (-9 ½, 44 ½) - 4:25 PM EST

The Niners rebounded nicely from a Week 3 loss at Minnesota by slicing up the Jets, 34-0 last Sunday. San Francisco returns home after spending the last two weeks on the highway to host a Buffalo team that is reeling following a 52-28 beatdown at the hands of New England. How bad was it for the Bills? Chan Gailey's squad led 21-7 before the Patriots ran off 35 unanswered points, as New England improved to 22-2 to the last 24 meetings with Buffalo since 2000.

Since Jim Harbaugh's arrival in the Bay last season, the 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS, while cashing three of four times in 2012. San Francisco has failed to cover one time in this span at Candlestick Park, losing the NFC Championship to the Giants in overtime this past January. The Niners have won six of their previous seven home games against AFC opponents, including a pair of double-digit triumphs over the Steelers and Browns last season.

The Bills have been involved in three high-scoring affairs this season, while allowing at least 48 points in two defeats. In the last 10 games in the road underdog role, Buffalo is just 3-6-1 ATS, including the 20-point blowout loss in the season opener to the Jets. The 'over' is on a nice run for the Bills, going 6-1 since last December.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:31 AM
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Betting the bye: NFL's best/worst bets off the bye week

Week 5 of the NFL season is the first time football bettors will deal with teams coming off bye weeks.

The break in the schedule can be a blessing or a burden, depending on a team’s situation. This week, two teams are returning to action following the bye – the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts.

The Steelers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) got an extra week to rid the taste of an upset loss to the Oakland Raiders in Week 3 as well as give RB Rashard Mendenhall, S Troy Polamalu and LB James Harrison some added recovery time.

Pittsburgh, which takes on state rival Philadelphia as a 3.5-point home favorite Sunday, is just 10-13 ATS (14-9 SU) coming off a bye week since 1990.

The Colts had a rough week off with news that head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will step away from the team for treatment, leaving the head coaching duties to offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. Indianapolis followed its first win of the season with a close loss to Jacksonville in Week 3, failing to cover as a 3-point home favorite.

Oddsmakers have tagged the Colts as 7-point underdogs hosting Green Bay in their first game back from the break. Since 1990, Indianapolis is 12-10-1 ATS (13-10 SU) following the bye.

Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay are all off in Week 5 and betting the bye week can be a useful handicapping tool throughout the NFL season. Here’s a look at the best and worst bets coming off the bye:

Stats since 1990 (1993 season had two bye weeks):

Best bets off the bye

Dallas Cowboys: 16-7 ATS/16-7 SU
Denver Broncos: 16-6-1 ATS/17-6 SU
Philadelphia Eagles: 16-7 ATS /19-4 SU
Arizona Cardinals: 14-9 ATS/10-13 SU
Buffalo Bills: 14-8-1 ATS/15-8 SU

Worst bets off the bye

Seattle Seahawks: 4-17-2 ATS/6-17 SU
New York Giants: 7-15-1 ATS: 8-15 SU
Oakland Raiders: 8-14-1 ATS/9-14 SU
San Francisco 49ers: 8-14-1 ATS/10-13 SU
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-13 ATS/6-17 SU




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:33 AM
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NFL Week 5 line moves: Browns-Giants see big drop

Tracking line moves as we head into the second quarter of the schedule. We spoke with Mike Perry at sportsbook.ag and Aron Black at bet365.com for a look at a few games as we follow the money.

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants – Open: Cleveland +13, Move: Cleveland +8
Betonline opened this one at a fat 13, but most everyone else was in the Browns +10 range, and since then it has been bet down a bit. “The Browns have been competitive in every game they’ve played this year,” notes Perry, and Black adds that “The Giants seem to be playing bad one week and good the next.” The public, says Perry, is on the Browns by a 2-1 margin, while Black reports light action on this one.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: Jacksonville +3, Move: Jacksonville +6
The Jags have only two problems – one is offense, the other defense. Both should be on display this week. And As Perry notes, “It’s tough to argue with people backing the Bears after the way they looked against the Cowboys on Monday night.” Black, meanwhile, sees a very difficult game ahead for offensive-challenged Jacksonville. Perry’s book pulls in the rope a bit and now lists J-Ville at +5.5, even though bettors are heavy (93 percent) on the Bears.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals – Open Bengals -5.5, Move Bengals -3
This has been bet down to a field goal game, mainly because the Dolphins have been able to hang in over the last few weeks, losing by three each to the Jets and unbeaten Cardinals. Perry points out that the Dolphins had a good chance to beat Arizona last weekend. “Do they pull the upset this week?” he asks. Bettors say no, expecting a cover by a 65-35 margin. The Bengals could be overvalued, as Black notes that they will be playing their fifth straight game against a first- or second-year quarterback.

Houston Texans at New York Jets – Open: Jets +9, Move Jets +8
These teams are going in opposite directions, and the betting public (decisively on the Texans) apparently doesn’t care that the game will be played in New Jersey and that New York will be getting a touchdown and change. “If San Francisco can go up 34 on the Jets with no reply,” says Black, “what is Houston capable of?” The Jets haven’t been this big a home dog since they got 7.5 against the Colts in 2006. Jets die-hards can still get 9 by shopping around. “Question is,” says Perry, “will the Jets even make it competitive on Monday night?”




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:35 AM
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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 5

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 5's action.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 45)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will likely not have to go against the full strength of the Cincinnati secondary, with at least four cornerbacks either doubtful or questionable. Miami still has to face a Bengals’ pass rush that has racked up a league-leading 16 sacks, though. Miami leads the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering just 56.8 yards, but has been susceptible to the pass. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (6, 46.5)

The Ravens, who played their first four games in an 18-day span, seek their first road win of the season against a bumbling Chiefs team that committed six turnovers in last week's 37-20 loss to the Chargers. Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in turnover margin at minus-13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (3, 51)

A pair of red-hot quarterbacks meet in the nation’s capital on Sunday as Matt Ryan brings the undefeated Falcons into FedEx Field for a meeting with rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Ryan is the top-rated passer, completing more than 69 percent of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Griffin is on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and run for an additional thousand. The rookie from Baylor is aiming to help Washington end a seven-game slide at home. The Redskins have played over the total in their last five home contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

Pittsburgh benefited from having a bye week to lick its wounds after dropping a 34-31 overtime decision to Oakland on Sept. 23. The Steelers are expected to be buoyed by the return of running back Rashard Mendenhall, who is coming back from last season's torn ACL injury. Stud safety Troy Polamalu could also return after missing two games with a strained calf and James Harrison eyes his season debut after nursing a sore left knee. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (7, 48)

The Indianapolis Colts received a shocking setback when it was revealed earlier in the week that first-year head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will be hospitalized for six to eight weeks to undergo treatment, leaving interim coach Bruce Arians to guide the Colts. Green Bay is expected to be without wideout Greg Jennings, who aggravated a groin injury in last week's contest. These clubs have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at N.Y. Giants (-9.5, 44)

The Browns attempt to snap a 10-game losing streak against the Giants on Sunday. Cleveland RB Trent Richardson leads AFC rookies with 222 rushing yards and has a rushing TD in three straight games. The Giants will likely be without WR Hakeem Nicks (knee, foot) for a third straight week, but QB Eli Manning has thrown for 1,320, the second highest total in the league and has won seven straight starts against the AFC dating back to last season.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3, 43.5)

The Seattle offense has been unimpressive under rookie QB Russell Wilson, ranking 28th in scoring (17.5) and 29th in total yards (281.5). But the defense has kept the Seahawks in games, allowing just 14.5 points and 275.8 total yards per game. The most puzzling aspect of Carolina’s early-season struggles has been the inconsistency of the run game, which averaged 35 yards on the ground against Tampa Bay and the New York Giants and 209 rushing yards against New Orleans and Atlanta. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (4.5, 41)

The Jacksonville Jaguars own the worst offense in the NFL - and now host a Chicago Bears team that has forced seven interceptions in the last two weeks and leads the NFL with 11 on the season. The home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. New England became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer last week at Buffalo, two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski). The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight October games.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 44.5)

San Francisco had a dominant performance against the Jets last week. The defense allowed a season-low 145 total yards in the shutout, and the offense was efficient, which has become quarterback Alex Smith's hallmark. Smith has been steady as ever, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 784 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, and Frank Gore (326 yards, 3 TDs) averages 4.9 yards per attempt. The over is 8-2-1 in the Bills’ last 11 road games.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 44)

The Titans’ biggest problem is a defense that is allowing an NFL-worst 37.8 points per game. The passing defense has been especially horrific, allowing an NFL-worst 75.3 percent completion rate and the second most touchdowns (10). The Titans' other current issue is at quarterback after Jake Locker (shoulder) was injured in the loss to Houston last week. Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns in relief, will be called on to start. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 54)

The Saints will continue to have trouble winning until their NFL-worst defense (463.2 yards per game) figures out a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone. The Chargers are coming off a 37-20 victory at Kansas City, and will try for their second consecutive 4-1 start. New Orleans has played over the total in eight of its last nine games overall.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:36 AM
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Sunday's games
Falcons (4-0) @ Redskins (2-2)—Washington plays fun games to watch; all four went over total, with Skins scoring 24+ in every game, allowing 22+- they’ve got 13 TDs on 48 drives, averaging 5.27 ppp in red zone- they’ve run ball for 175.5 yards/game, so you wonder how bad their defense would be if they weren’t running ball so well. One area Skins have struggled is on 3rd down, converting just 13 for 51 (25.4%), part of why they’ve won field position battle only once in four games. Atlanta pulled home game out of hat last week vs Carolina team with mobile QB Newton; Falcons won field position battle in all four games; they’re +8 in turnovers, with seven INTs and only three giveaways. Road team won last four series games, with average total in last five, 48.8. Falcons won their last three visits here- they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as road favorite, 20-8-1 in last 29 games where spread was 3 or less points. Since ’08, Washington is 9-11-2 as a home dog.

Eagles (3-1) @ Steelers (1-2)—Iggles have three wins by total of four points, as Vick has led game-winning drive in last 2:00 of all three wins; last week was their first turnover-free game, after they had 12 giveaways in first three games (-6). Philly off physical win over divisional rival Giants; they scored only one offensive TD in last two games (19 drives) and scored total of 23 points in splitting pair of road games. Pitt off bye after sluggish 1-2 start; add in Steelers’ post-bye stat. Eagles are 8-3 in last 11 series games, splitting last four visits here. Over last seven years, Steelers are 18-10 vs spread vs NFC foes; since ’06, they’re 17-12 as non-divisional home favorites. Eagles are 5-9 vs spread in last 14 vs AFC squads, but since ’06, they’re 13-4 as road underdog. Three of four Philly games stayed under the total. NFC teams are (9-4) vs AFC squads so far this season.

Packers (2-2) @ Colts (1-2)—Figure Colts to be emotional here- they found out this week their head coach has leukemia, and will be gone for most of rest of season. Indy off its bye, after splitting pair of close home games with Vikes/Jags (they led both games by 11 points at half). Add in Colts’ post-bye stats. Last two Packer games were decided by total of 3 points; they lost only road game (14-12 on controversial late TD at Seattle) and haven’t had takeaway in three of four games, so defense is suspect. Home side won last five series games, with Green Bay 0-3 in Indy, giving up 41 ppg, but those trends are all with #18 under center. Since 2006, Pack is 16-7-1 vs spread as road favorites- they’ve covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents. Football teams generally do worse with change of routine (see Saints) so shift of duties with Coach Pagano on sick leave will hamper progress of young Indy squad.

Browns (0-4) @ Giants (2-2)—Game opened Giants -13, was quickly bet down to -9, as Browns have yet to lose game by more than 10 points-- they’ve also had three extra days to prep after 23-16 loss (+11) in Baltimore last Thursday. Cleveland defense has been decent in red zone last three weeks, allowing four TDs, three FGs (4.00 ppp) last 10 times they were threatened. Problem for Browns is they haven’t run ball well (30 rushes for 76 yards in last two games), which exposes defense to Giant aerial attack (10.0/7.2/7.4 ypa last three games). Underdogs are 12-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC East squads (NFC East non-divisional favorites are 0-8). Trap game for Giants, after last-minute loss in Philly and with 49ers on deck; since ’09, Big Blue is 6-17-1 as home favorite (4-10-1 outside division)- they covered twice in last seven games as double digit favorite, should spread creep back to 10+ points. Three of four games for both sides stayed under the total.

Dolphins (1-3) @ Bengals (3-1)—Miami lost in OT last two weeks to Jets/ Cardinals; they’re 7th team over last 5+ years to play OT games in consecutive weeks- other six teams were 1-3-1 vs spread in that next game (one team had a bye). Three teams lost back/back OT games; those three were 1-2 vs spread in that third game, with both losses by 3 points- the three games were decided by total of 10 points. Miami is 14-5 in series vs Bengals, 8-3 here, but this is rare occasion where Cincy has better squad, having won last three games, scoring 34-38-27 points (scored 11 TDs on last 32 drives). Explosive passing attack averaged 8.0/12.8/7.9 ypa in last three games. Dolphins have seven TD drives of 75+ yards in last three games, after getting shut down by Texans in opener; Miami has to cut down on turnovers (10, -5 ratio) but they have to be pleased with progress of rookie QB Taneyhill (394 PY last week). Both teams had three of four games go over the total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Chiefs (1-3)— Word of caution on what looks like low number; since 2005, Ravens are 3-10 vs spread as road favorites in non-divisional games. Flat spot for Baltimore, coming off primetime games with Pats/Browns, and with big name Cowboys/Texans on deck. Illness to Colts’ coach Pagano had to hit hard here- he was Ravens’ defensive aide for last four years (DC LY). Chiefs are off to dismal start, allowing 34 ppg- they were down 24-6 at winless Saints in their only win, before rallying for win. KC ain’t running ball for 275 yards against Raven defense.that allowed 120 yards on 51 carries in last two games (Pats/Browns). Chiefs were outscored 58-12 in first half of last three games. OC Cameron is trying to pump up Raven passing game, but they averaged only 4.9 ypa in only road game, a 24-23 loss at Philly. Teams haven’t met since Ravens whacked KC 30-7 in ’10 playoffs, their third straight series win. Both teams had three of first four games go over total.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Panthers (1-3)— Greatest moment in Seahawk history was 34-14 win over Carolina in ’05 NFC title game, but that was many moons ago. Home side won all five series games, with Seattle losing both visits here, 26-3/13-10. Hawks have sturdy defense this year, but they don’t trust rookie QB Wilson enough to win tough road games, having scored 14.5 ppg (two TDs on 22 drives) in losing first two away games 20-16/19-13. Carolina had its guts ripped out in tough 30-28 loss at Falcons last week, when Newton fumbled on game-clinching run, with ball being recovered short of first down marker; Panthers allowed 31 ppg in last three games- they’re -6 in turnovers already and allowed nine offensive TDs in last three games (seven of nine on drives of 68+ yards). Seahawks are 15-22-3 vs spread in last 40 games where spread was 3 or less points; Panthers are 8-10 in their last 18 such games. All four Seattle games stayed under total.

Bears (3-1) @ Jaguars (1-3)—Trap game for Chicago after surprisingly easy Monday night win in Dallas; their only loss was road game at Lambeau on short week; this is road game on short week, but Jags are hardly Packer-esque, scoring two offensive TDs on 21 drives in home losses to Texans (27-7), Bengals (27-10). Bears have 11 INTs in four games- they ran three of them back for TDs in last two games, and are already +7 in turnovers. Gabbert has played better on road, averaging 2.2/3.6 ypa at home, 6.1/6.7 on road. Chicago is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as road favorite, 12-10-3 in last 25 vs AFC teams. Jaguars are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdogs-- road team covered all four of their games this season. Home side won last three series games; this is Bears’ first visit here since ’04. Jags’ owner Khan is from Illinois (big Illini booster) via Pakistan. Last three Jacksonville games stayed under the total.

Titans (1-3) @ Vikings (3-1)—Hard to endorse Tennessee squad that already lost games by 26-28-24 points; in their only win, they scored three non-offensive TDs, and still needed OT to beat struggling Detroit. Titans are 3-4 as road underdogs under Munchak; they’ve had only two takeaways in four games (-6 turnover ratio). Vikings didn’t score an offensive TD last week, but used PR/KR for TDs to nip the Lions in Detroit, week after they upset 49ers here; underdogs all four of their games this season. In their last three games, Minnesota allowed only 228 rushing yards on 70 carries (3.3/carry), so could be more tough sledding for Chris Johnson. Titans had 158 yards on ground last week, after having total of 117 in first three games. Vikes are 1-4 vs spread in last five games as home favorites. Minnesota won four of last five series games, with last four decided by 10+ points; titans lost six of seven visits here, with only win 20 years ago. Last three Viking games stayed under the total.

Broncos (2-2) @ Patriots (2-2)—Belichick crushed Tebow-led Broncos twice LY, 41-23 at Mile High, 45-10 at home in playoffs, but Denver has a better QB now; Patriots lost four of last five meetings with Manning brothers, with two losses to Eli in Super Bowls. Not only that, but Pats’ OC McDaniels faces his old team for first time since they fired him as HC after ’10 season. Broncos have 12 offensive TDs on 42 drives, as Manning develops chemistry with his new WRs- they pummeled Raiders LW, outgaining them 503-237, but off big divisional win and with pre-bye tilt at San Diego up next, this might be bigger game for Patriot squad that lost its only home game to 4-0 Cardinals. Pats scored 30+ points in all three away games, but were held to one TD, five FG tries in home opener. Since 2007, NE is 15-11 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite. Keep in mind that through four weeks, underdogs are 27-14 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Bills (2-2) @ 49ers (3-1)—Buffalo was 2-1 and up at half over Patriots last week, then they gave up 45 points in second half and now its hard to tell what to make of them, considering that high-priced pass rusher Mario Williams has touched opposing QBs three times in four games. All four Bills games were decided by 10+ points, with favorites covering all four. Buffalo’s losses by 48-28/52-28 scores. Since ’05, Bills are 12-16-2 vs spread as non-divisional road dogs. Niners bounced back from loss at Metrodome by crushing dysfunctional Jets 34-0 in Swamp; 49ers’ other two wins this year are by 8 points each- they’re 8-0 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 9-4-1 vs spread in game following a win. Three of four Buffalo games went over total; last three 49er games stayed under. Niners were +28 in turnovers LY, then even in first three games this year, before +4 last week got them back on track. Since ’05, Buffalo is 10-15-3 vs spread when facing an NFC squad.

Chargers (3-1) @ Saints (0-4)—Impossible to endorse Saints as favorites here, even though Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis are attending game at request of Drew Brees, who opposes his former team here; winless Saints don’t defend well, allowing 32.5 ppg (13 TDs, 10 FGA on 45 drives)- their last two losses were by total of 4 points, but they also blew a 24-6 lead at home to 1-3 Chiefs, giving up 273 rushing yards to KC. San Diego had six takeaways (+6) LW after having total of three in first three games, but they’ve only gained 300+ TY in one game so far. Bolts are 7-3 in series, winning all four games played here; last time teams met Saints won 37-32 in London in ’08. Since 2004, San Diego is 16-8-4 as road underdogs (1-4 LY). Three of four Charger games stayed under; three of four Saint games went over total. This is one of only two games Chargers will play on artificial turf this season; other one is Week 16 at Jets.


Monday' game
Texans (4-0) @ Jets (2-2)—NY-area panic mongers have Jets dead in water after pair of losses that surrounded less-than-stellar OT win in Miami and season-ending injury to defensive ace Revis, but fact is they’re tied for first in division and facing team they’re 5-0 against, with three of five wins by 15+ points. Now would be good time for Jets to reveal grand plan as to why Tebow was brought to Swamp—he hasn’t been much of factor thus far, and team has completed just 44.1% of passes in last three games (team has 2 TDs on last 33 drives). Houston is on road for third time in last four weeks; they’ve won in Denver and outsacked opponents 13-3 this year- they had two defensive scores last week and already have four TD drives of less than 50 yards. Texans convert 45.2% (28-62) on 3rd down and are +7 in turnovers, throwing just one pick in four games. Desperate home dogs have long been solid value of Monday nights, but in this case, it takes leap of faith on Sanchez’ Jets.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:37 AM
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NFL

Sunday, October 7

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Broncos at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 52)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. Manning, who is fourth all-time with 143 wins, and Brady (fifth, 126) did what they do best last week - lead their teams to resounding victories. The Patriots erased a 14-point deficit and scored 45 points in the second half en route to a 52-28 win at Buffalo, while the Broncos crushed Oakland 37-6 as Manning excelled in his first taste of the bitter rivalry.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Patriots -6.5, O/U 52.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 80 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-2): Denver has already faced three playoff teams from 2011, including two of the three undefeated teams this season (Houston, Atlanta) - and now takes on the defending AFC champion. If the Broncos are to stop the No. 1 offense at 438.3 yards per game, they must get huge performances from pass-rushing specialists Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller and cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter. Denver's chances will also be enhanced if its offensive balance continues. Running back Willis McGahee, who leads active players in 100-yard rushing games with 32, had 112 last week and Manning threw for 338 yards, including touchdowns to a tight end, a wide receiver and a running back.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2): New England last week became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer (Brady), two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski) - but the No. 1 offense at 33.5 points per game will face a stiffer challenge in the NFL's No. 7 defense. The Patriots beat the Broncos twice last season - 41-23 in Denver during the regular season and 45-10 in the AFC divisional playoffs - as Brady threw 10 touchdowns against only one interception in those games. New England's defense has six interceptions and five fumble recoveries; the Patriots are second in the NFL with a plus-8 turnover margin. Brady is 2-5 against Denver in the regular season and 1-1 in the postseason, the only team against which he has a losing record.

TRENDS:

* The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 meetings.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 14 points.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This is the second time in NFL history two QBs with 125-plus victories will meet. Denver and John Elway (148) played Miami and Dan Marino (147) in 1998. Brett Favre is the all-time leader with 186 victories.

2. The Patriots and Broncos both must buck the odds to make the playoffs: Teams that start 2-2 have made the postseason only 35.3 percent of the time since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in 1990.

3. All-Pro TE Gronkowski (hip) did not practice Wednesday, but was questionable when he had five catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 06:39 AM
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Accuscore

NFL Week 5: Top 4 Picks

Last weekend, our analyst went 2-1, bringing his record through the early part of this season to a respectable 4-3-2. After 4 weeks, he’s posted a profit on his picks, and now, he’s ready to get aggressive. With the refs back and all teams done with a fourth of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Simulations have the Steelers winning outright nearly 68 percent of the time. The Eagles are 3-1, but have somehow won those three games by a combined four points. They rank 27th in the league in turnover margin (-5), and it is fool’s gold to believe you can continually win in the NFL giving the football away and relying on last second miracles. Philadelphia’s defense is solid, and the defensive line should give Pittsburgh problems. Ben Roethlisberger has been a wizard his entire career however somehow avoiding pressure and surviving with a weak offensive line. This is the week I expect Philadelphia’s luck to run out.

Minnesota Vikings -5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Vikings are one of the surprise teams in the NFC, and if they cover this week it will be time to consider them as just a good team. The computer has Minnesota winning by 8 points, and covering this spread 59 percent of the time. Jake Locker is out for the Titans meaning Matt Hasselbeck will step in yet again at quarterback. I am not a fan of Locker, but he was capable of making certain plays athletically that Hasselbeck is not capable of at this point in his career. The AccuScore computer is 3-1 picking both of these teams ATS so I will side with it in this game as well.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars Under 41 Points
This is a relatively low line for the NFL, but the computer still projects the Under at 63 percent. These two teams average only 36 points combined in simulations.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Over 54 Points
The Saints are desperate for a win, and with their horrendous defense, they will go for it behind their offense. That means the Chargers will also be throwing to score points and keep up which should translate to an entertaining offensive game. The Over occurs in nearly 57 percent of simulations. The computer has gone 3-1 for both teams picking Totals this season.

Old Post 10-07-12 05:06 PM
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412 3% WASHINGTON +3
413 3% PHILADELPHIA +3
417 3% CLEVELAND +8.5
429 3% DENVER +6.5
433 3% SAN DIEGO +3.5
411 3% ATLANTA/WASHINGTON OVER 51
423 3% BALTIMORE/KANSAS CITY OVER 46.5

Atlanta -3 WASHINGTON 51.5

Washington qualifies in a home dog momentum situation, which is 51-20-1. They also qualify in several fundamental rushing situations, which are 147-84-6, 555-405024, 510-328-23 and 312-211-26. Numbers favor Atlanta by three points and project about 56 points. Washington is running the ball well this year at 176 yards per game and they’ll face an Atlanta team that is allowing 146 yards per game on the ground. The Redskins problems have been pass defense and Atlanta can certainly throw the ball but a lot of the Falcons success this year has come from a very high number of turnovers. Washington has lost seven games in a row at home including a home loss this year to Cincinnati, 31-38. The last five Washington home games have totaled 51, 53, 61, 59 and 69 points so Washington is certainly capable of putting up points at home and even more so now with RGIII leading the way. Atlanta has scored at least 27 points in each game this year as well. Redskins stay in this game with their ability to run the ball and there should be plenty of points scored in this game. WASHINGTON 31 ATLANTA 27

PITTSBURGH -3.5 Philadelphia 43

Philadelphia qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 312-211-26. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and project about 42 points. This is pretty simple. Along with a solid situation and line value for Philadelphia, the Eagles are simply the better team from the line of scrimmage. They run the ball much better than Pittsburgh and are much better overall offensively. On defense a usually stout Steeler’s defense is actually below average this year, while Philadelphia has been very good against the pass this year. PHILADELPHIA 23 PITTSBURGH 20

Green Bay -7 INDIANAPOLIS 47.5

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by just two points and predict about 51 points. Not much of an opinion on this game. GB will be without WR Greg Jennings for this game while Indianapolis continues to miss many bodies on both, offense and defense, even though they had a bye week last week. The Packers defense is improved this year and they should be able to shut down an average Colts offense. Meanwhile, GB hasn’t performed like they expected to on offense yet this year but against a Colts defense that is banged up and not performing well against the pass, they could get pretty healthy this week. GREEN BAY 28 INDIANAPOLIS 20

NY GIANTS -9 Cleveland 44

Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 165-94-7. Numbers favor the Giants by 8.5 points and project about 48 points. Cleveland has played good defense this year and that should give them a chance to stay close in this game despite their sub par offense. The Giants defense has not played well this year and they are banged up badly in the secondary. Cleveland is banged up at the receiver position but should be able to run the ball some and their defense should contain the Giants enough. NY is also banged up at the receiver position as well, which very well may limit their offensive production. My numbers do project a higher scoring game than the number and if Cleveland gets into the twenties in this game, it should go over the total. NY GIANTS 27 CLEVELAND 24

MINNESOTA -5.5 Tennessee 43.5

Minnesota qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is 141-73-5 and plays against them here. They don’t qualify in the best part of that situation, however. Numbers favor Minnesota by 11 points and project about 48 points. This could be a classic letdown spot for the Vikings and the situation certainly suggests that. But, the numbers strongly support the Vikings and Tennessee has allowed at least 34 points in every game this year. The 34 point game was their first game of the year against NE and that was only because NE was up by so much let took their foot off the gas. The Vikings haven’t allowed more than 23 points in a game this year and if that stays true, it may be tough for Tennessee to cover this number. Matt Hasselbeck will get the start for Tennessee, which should improve the Titans offense. MINNESOTA 27 TENNESSEE 21

CINCINNATI -3.5 Miami 45

Miami qualifies in my turnover table, which is 437-288-18. They also qualify in a week five situation, which is 45-11-2 as well as fundamental rushing situations, which are 555-405-24 and 510-328-23 and if they are a dog of more than three points a rushing situation, which is 167-89-9. Cincinnati qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 91-47-10, as long as they are favored by three or less points. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 1.5 points and project about 53 points. The Dolphins are showing improvement despite losing the last two weeks in OT. Both, their run game and passing game have been above average this year and their run defense has been outstanding. They’ve been very vulnerable against the pass and will be challenged this week by a very good Cincinnati passing offense. Miami is also very thin in the secondary due to injuries. Miami continues to play close games. After last weeks close loss at Arizona, they have now been within three points or less (including many wins) in 13 of their past 15 games. If the momentum situation didn’t apply to Cincinnati (and it only applies at -3 or less) I would be on Miami in this game. Cincinnati, however, has played much better defense the last two weeks, especially after they got back Carlos Dunlap. The Bengal’s have recorded six sacks in each of the last two weeks. If you can get Miami +3.5 make them a best bet. CINCINNATI 28 MIAMI 27

Baltimore -6 KANSAS CITY 46.5

KC qualifies in my turnover table, which is 437-288-18 and a week five situation, which is 45-11-2. Numbers favor Baltimore by 6.5 points and project about 52 points. KC has not been good this year and has allowed at least 24 points in every game. But, a lot of that has been due to turnovers, including last week’s debacle at home against the Chargers. This is just Baltimore’s second game of the season on the road. They lost by one against a very good Philadelphia team in week two but they were out gained badly in that game so there is a chance their defense, which hasn’t been great this year, will give up some yards and points to the Chiefs. Baltimore is throwing the ball extremely well this year and KC has struggled to stop the pass so Baltimore should get their share of points in this game. I think both teams can get into the twenties in this game which gives it an excellent chance to go over the total. If this line were to go to seven points I would grab KC as a best bet. BALTIMORE 27 KANSAS CITY 26

CAROLINA -3 Seattle 43.5

Seattle qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 152-85-4. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 555-405-24 and 312-211-26 and if they are a dog of more than three points a rushing situation, which is 167-89-9. Carolina qualifies in my turnover table, which is 437-288-18. Numbers favor Seattle by two points and project about 40 points. The situations go both ways in this game, which makes this game a no play for me. Seattle has struggled on offense this year but against a poor Carolina defense they have a chance to move the ball. SEATTLE 23 CAROLINA 20

Chicago -5.5 JACKSONVILLE 41

Jacksonville qualifies in a home underdog fundamental rushing situation, which is 147-84-6. Numbers favor Chicago by 5.5 points and project about 43 points. Jacksonville continues to struggle badly on offense and until that improves it will be tough to back them. The Bears can certainly be beat on the road but there isn’t enough value for me in this game. If this line were to go to six points I would consider Jacksonville as a best bet. CHICAGO 24 JACKSONVILLE 21

NEW ENGLAND -6.5 Denver 51.5

Denver would qualify in a momentum situation, which is 77-35-2 if they are dogs of six or less. Numbers favor NE by just two points and project about 52 points. NE has to be favored by a certain number of points simply because they are NE but they are greatly over valued in this game. The Denver defense has been very good this year, especially with their pass defense and Denver can move the ball with Peyton Manning. Manning simply scores points when he is at quarterback. His teams have scored at least 21 points in every game this year and over the last four years with Indianapolis, they scored 20 or more points in most of their road games. I don’t see any reason they can’t get into the twenties again in this game against a NE defense that has injuries to deal with. NE also has injuries on offense that may slow down their offense a bit as well. Solid line value backed by the better defense and an offense that can compete with the NE offense. NE was 1-3 last year against playoff teams (not counting the Tebow led Denver teams) and is 0-1 this year against Baltimore, who is likely a playoff team. DENVER 28 NEW ENGLAND 24

SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 44.5

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by nine points and project about 50 points. Not much of an opinion on this game other than SF will score points at home like they always do. The 49ers have scored at least 20 points in 10 of their last 11 home games. Probably a higher scoring game than the total suggests. SAN FRANCISCO 30 BUFFALO 21

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 San Diego 54

I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NO by just 1.5 points and project about 48 points. SD hasn’t been great this year despite their 3-1 record but this is a lot of points to be getting from a poor defensive team like the Saints, who have allowed at least 27 points in every game this year. SD has struggled on offense but they should have some success against a very bad Saints defense, who isn’t getting to the quarterback. That should allow Rivers plenty of time to find open receivers in the secondary. NO will also be playing without Lance Moore at WR so their offense, which is already below average this year, may struggle a little more to move the ball. SD’s defense has been surprisingly good this year. Plenty of value combined with a dog who has a much better defense. I would love to play this game under but don’t like playing an under with such a poor defense. SAN DIEGO 26 NEW ORLEANS 23

Old Post 10-07-12 05:21 PM
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NEW ORLEANS -3½ -109 over San Diego
When was last time a 0-4 team was favored over a 3-1 squad and by more than a field goal? Oddsmakers are not fools. They are not in the habit of giving away cash. Despite New Orleans’ dismal start, the team does have talent. For those that think Drew Brees has regressed, think again. Brees leads the league with 1,350 passing yards to date. The Saints’ defense has been the trouble spot but we’re not convinced that San Diego’s offence is a unit to be overly concerned with.

The Chargers have defeated the Raiders (aided by a slew of blocked kicks), the Titans and the Chiefs (KC with 6 turnovers), teams with a 3-9 record collectively. San Diego lacks a running game while Philip Rivers can’t find a rhythm with his overrated receiving corp. Much like the Cardinals are not a 5-0 team, proving it on Thursday night, the Saints are not an 0-5 team and a reversal of fortune is forthcoming in this Sunday prime timer for all to see.
Our PickNEW ORLEANS -3½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

KANSAS CITY +6 -108 over Baltimore
Things find a way of balancing out in this league. The Ravens have been solid. A contributing factor is their ability to protect the football. It’s no wonder that Baltimore is winning with just four giveaways thus far compared to eight takeaways from its opponents for a +4 turnover ratio.

The Chiefs have been awful in comparison. Kansas City players have fumbled eight times and have been intercepted seven times while intercepting its adversaries just twice and having zero fumble recoveries. That’s a -13 ratio, dead last in the league. This KC team is averaging 419 yards of offence per game, 4th best in league while allowing an acceptable 334 per game. With a strong running game, a decent passing game and facing an aging defense while at Arrowhead, we see the pendulum swinging back here. Upset possibility.
Our PickKANSAS CITY +6 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

Minnesota +5½ -104 over TENNESSEE
Sorry Purple People fans, this is about making money, not friends. The Vikes have been a pleasant surprise with their quick start while the Titans have been rather yucky. Now though, the Vikes are expected to win and win by a margin. That’s a tall order for a team that had six less wins than this opponent just a year ago. Minnesota QB Christian Ponder has performed admirably, with a 68% completion rate and zero interceptions. However, ranking 26th in the league with just 199-yards per game is not exactly an aerial attack to fear, especially when Indianapolis and Detroit have been on the opponent’s docket. Tennessee will have Matt Hasselbeck at the controls this week and he may be a welcomed site. Expect a close one.
Our PickMinnesota +5½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Old Post 10-07-12 05:23 PM
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Robert Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take #422 Cincinnati (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

There was a time when you'd be better off punching yourself in the face then betting on the Bengals as a home favorite. (And we are not that far removed from that time.) However, I am starting to get the sense that this is a very good football team. The Bengals are starting to get healthy on a defense that has been one of the more underrated units in football over the last two seasons. And I think that being at home after back-to-back road games is going to give them a big boost against an exhausted Miami team. To be blunt, there is no way in hell that Ryan Tannehill is going to throw for over 400 yards again this week. And I don't see the Dolphins racking up nearly 500 yards on that side of the ball again this week. The Bengals should be able to smother Miami's weak receiving corps and I expect one of Cincy's better defensive efforts. But the main thing is that I don't know how much this young Miami team has left in the tank after back-to-back grueling, heartbreaking losses to the Jets and Cardinals. This is now back-to-back road games and I wonder if they will bounce back. Miami has been playing teams tight and showing improvement. But a big part of that is Miami is getting everyone's ?C? game each Sunday. They caught Oakland in the perfect letdown situation in Week 2. The Jets were off a more marquee game at Pittsburgh. Arizona was stuck in between a huge win over Philadelphia and a road game on a short week at rival St. Louis. So Miami hasn't taken anyone's best punch yet. I think Cincinnati will deliver its best punch this week. Cincinnati coasted to a much-easier-than-it-looked 27-10 win at Jacksonville last week and I can see the Jags and Fins as nearly equal. Cincinnati melted down in their last 20 minutes against Baltimore to open the season. But if you throw that 20 minutes out they have played three of four games on the road and have outscored their opponents by +27 points. It is tough for rookies to have back-to-back strong road games and I think that some more Miami turnovers will be their undoing. I think the Bengals win by around a touchdown here, and that it will only be that close because Miami makes a little run late and scores some garbage time points to make it seem closer than it actually was.

2-Unit Play. Take #427 Chicago (-6) over Jacksonville (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

I will admit: I was wrong about the Jaguars. I thought that this team was ready to compete this year and I thought they might be a nice sleeper in the AFC. They will not be. This team can't score, they can't throw the ball, they can't get pressure, they can't protect, and they really just can't do a lot of things right. Houston and Cincinnati coasted and blew this Jaguars team out. Chicago might be better than either of those teams. The Bears will bring their Cover-2 defense to the party and Jacksonville doesn't do enough well on that side of the ball to break down the Bears D. On the other side, Chicago's offensive line should hold up against a Jaguars defense that has just three sacks in four games. That is the Bears weakness. If Jacksonville can't exploit it they don't have much hope here. Chicago's offense might be starting to click. And even without the defensive scores they managed 20 points on the road against a very, very good Dallas defense. The Jags misery continues. The Bears should get another blowout win.

2-Unit Play. Take #414 Pittsburgh (-3) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

This really is a must-win game for the Steelers. They are coming off a bye week and are at home against a Philadelphia team that is coming off an emotional win over New York. But the Eagles kind of own the Giants so that one isn't a huge surprise. What is a surprise is that the Eagles are 3-1 but have their three wins by a total of just four points. The Eagles have been awful in their two road games this season, at Cleveland and at Arizona. Mike Vick can't be trusted. And this 3-4 Steelers defense has had two weeks to prepare for him. The Eagles defense is flat-out nasty. And I see at least seven sacks from them in this one. But Big Ben takes a licking and keeps on ticking. I think he is going to be able to make enough plays in this game to gut out another vintage Steelers home win. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after a loss and 11-4 ATS in their last five games after a loss against the numbers. Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS at home and the Eagles are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to beat a number. Take the motivated home team.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #417 Cleveland (+9) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

Until the Giants show that they can come to play and lay the wood to an overmatched opponent then we have to continue to bet against them. Cleveland has already gone toe-to-toe with the Eagles and Ravens, and they have lost those two games by just eight total points. They were also much closer than their 10-point loss to the Bills suggested. The Browns had a few extra days to prepare and I think that they will be able to move the ball on the ground against a pretty mediocre Giants running defense. New York will be without Hakeem Nicks and they are banged up in the secondary. Most importantly, the Giants are coming off an emotional loss on the road at Philadelphia and they have an emotional rematch showdown with the Niners on deck. New York is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of 8.0 or higher. Take the points.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #429 Denver (+6.5) over New England (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

I think that this is too many points for a Denver team that could win this game outright. Yes, New England won by 24 points in a ?blowout? last week at Buffalo. But they were losing 21-7 in that game before the Bills imploded. New England's offense is still lacking some sizzle without Aaron Hernandez and they are just 2-2 on the season, after all. Also, the Patriots are 3-1 ATS on the season so they will get a lot of love from the books. But there are some issues with this team, especially on offense, and I think that Denver will make this one a horse race. The Broncos have gone toe-to-toe with Atlanta and Houston, two of the best teams in football, and they have beaten Pittsburgh. This Broncos team is getting better and better each week with Manning under center and I think that this game is going to be very similar to the New Orleans-Green Bay contest we saw last week. It should be end-to-end action and the team with the ball last will have a chance for the win. But the points should hold up.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #411 Atlanta (-3) over Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

If this line had come out around a touchdown, where I thought it would, then I would have looked hard at the Redskins. So why play the Falcons? Because the line came out so low that tells me that the Redskins are still a little overvalued by the general public because of RG-III. The reality is that Washington's defense is a train wreck and I don't see any way that they are going to be able to slow down Atlanta when they need to. Fortunately for them, the weather should help out on that side of the ball (hence my play on the 'under') but that is also going to slow down Washington's big play attack. Atlanta is the much more experienced team. They are excellent on the road, winning via blowout already at Kansas City and at San Diego. They just beat Carolina, which is a team that is very similar to the Redskins, and Atlanta just has a lot more to work with on the defensive side of the ball. Washington already lost at home to Cincinnati and I think that Griffin falls to 0-2 in front of the home crowd. Take the Falcons here.

1-Unit Play. Take #211 New Orleans (-3.5) over San Diego (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)

There is desperation, and then there is what the Saints face on Sunday night. This team is 0-4 and needs something to go right in a big way. The fact that they are 0-4 and that they are still the favorites in this game shows me how much respect the oddsmakers have for New Orleans' prowess in the Superdome. Their defense is still a train wreck. But I think that they will be able to force Phil Rivers into some turnovers behind that shaky offensive line. San Diego is the least impressive 3-1 team in football. They have beaten three horrendous teams (Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City) and they have won those games mainly because their opponents threw up on themselves with turnovers and horrible special teams play. The Chargers have actually been outgained in three of their four contests and I think that this team is overrated. Maybe this is the week that it catches up to them. Maybe it is not. But both of these teams have weaknesses. And I think that the home crowd, the better offense, and the desperation that comes from being 0-4 will give the Saints a boost here and help them beat this number.

This Week's Totals:
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 40.5 Chicago at Jacksonville (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.0 Atlanta at Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 46.0 Baltimore at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 43.5 Seattle at Carolina (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)


NOTE: These are 7-point teasers.
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #432 San Francisco (-2.5) over Buffalo (4 p.m.) AND Take #435 Houston (-1) over N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #415 Green Bay (Pk) over Indianapolis (1 p.m.) AND Take #425 Seattle (+10) over Carolina (4 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #429 Denver (+13.5) AND Take #432 San Francisco (-2.5) over Buffalo (4 p.m.)

Old Post 10-07-12 05:23 PM
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Top 10 Hilton Picks

THE NUTS - W15 L3 T2 LW 4-1
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VLBD - W14 L5 T1 LW 4-1
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THERE WILL BE BLOOD - W14 L5 T1 LW 4-1
Week 4 Picks: ATL GB BAL DEN NO

Old Post 10-07-12 05:24 PM
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Buffalo Bills Trek West To Face San Francisco 49ers

The ebbs and flows of the NFL season are inevitable. Ups and downs are part of life for almost every NFL team.

The Buffalo Bills (2-2) and San Francisco 49ers (3-1) have not been immune from those sorts of vicissitudes in the first month of the 2012 NFL campaign. Last week, however, both began to resemble the teams many were expecting to see this season.

Which was not good news for the Bills, but a pretty good deal for the 49ers.

We’ll see if last week’s pattern continues on Sunday when Buffalo makes the long trek to the Bay Area. A late week check of the Don Best Pro Odds notes that host San Francisco is a 9½-10 point favorite at almost all Las Vegas sports books, with the total mostly at 44½ shaded to the ‘under.’

Kickoff at Candlestick Park will be at 4:25 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage. Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots will be on hand to describe the action.

Buffalo certainly hopes last week’s 52-28 loss at Orchard Park to New England doesn’t linger. For the Bills’ sake it had better not, because after this trip to Candlestick, Buffalo has road games at Arizona and New England, plus a home game vs. unbeaten Houston, in three of its next four games. The Bills have their “bye” week on October 28, after hosting Tennessee, but it’s safe to say that the next month is extremely critical for the Bills...and the future of head coach Chan Gailey.

The loss to the Patriots was disturbing on a variety of fronts, not the least of which was allowing 45 points in the second half (and 31 in a 4th-Q meltdown) after assuming a 21-7 lead early in the third quarter. Along the way the Bills allowed a whopping 247 yards on the ground. Moreover, injury problems became a concern last week, and Buffalo likely plugs in a pair of new OL starters at Candlestick after LT Cordy Glenn and RG Kraig Urbik went down with ankle injuries against the Pats.

Perhaps the most alarming development last week was the regression of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick into the mistake-prone mess who struggled down the stretch last season when tossing an NFL-worst 23 picks. Fitzpatrick, who had not thrown an interception in his previous two starts after tossing three in the opening loss to the Jets, was guilty of four picks against New England.

The Bills were also held to a season-low 98 yards rushing against Bill Belichick’s defense, and top backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, both of whom having missed action due to injury this season, were each guilty of fumbles against New England.

For Buffalo to succeed, and for Fitzpatrick to avoid disaster, the Bills have to be able to run the ball effectively, and Fitzpatrick has to begin finding top wideout Steve Johnson downfield a bit more often.

All easier said than done, however, especially against the gnarly 49ers, who bounced back from their shock loss at Minnesota to throttle the overrated Jets, 34-0, last week at the Meadowlands’ MetLife Stadium.

The tale of that one-sided romp could be found in the rushing statistics, which reflected the sort of physical domination that head coach Jim Harbaugh stresses. San Francisco pounded for 245 yards rushing while conceding only 45 yards on 17 carries to the helpless Jet runners.

Given the maddening inconsistency of the Buffalo defensive front, and its shortcomings that were exposed last week vs. the Patriots, the scenario is a potentially-frightening one for the Buffalo defense this week.

Another concern for the Bills this week is that Harbaugh has developed a package of plays for 2nd-year backup QB Colin Kaepernick, the long-striding Nevada grad who was also a 1,000-yard-rusher in multiple seasons for the Wolf Pack. Kaepernick, used in “Wild Kap” looks, gained 50 yards on four carries last week vs. the Jets, but can also put the ball in the air, creating an extra concern for opposing defenses.

If there are some concerns for Harbaugh’s offense, it’s that QB Alex Smith has yet to detonate the big-play element the 49ers thought they were adding to their strike force in the offseason when acquiring the likes of WRs Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and rookie A.J. Jenkins, plus rookie RB LaMichael James from Oregon.

But it’s not been all that bad for Smith, who continues to manage games effectively and avoid mistakes (he has only one pick in four games). As long as Smith plays within himself, Harbaugh is unlikely to contemplate any QB change, and will be using Kaepernick only on occasion in a change-of-pace role. Moreover, the “O” could regain the services of beastly RB Brandon Jacobs, the ex-Giant banger who has been out with a knee injury sicne the second week of preseason.

Meanwhile, Vic Fangio’s 49er stop unit allowed only 145 yards of total offense to the Jets and ranks third overall in the league, allowing just 277 ypg. San Francisco, however, is not forcing TOs at the rate it did last season when finishing with an NFL-best +28 TO margin. The 49ers have forced only seven giveaways in four weeks and stand +3 in TO margin entering October.

Of course, what remains noteworthy about the Niners is their pointspread prowess, as they’re now 15-6-1 vs. the number since Harbaugh’s arrival last season. Included is a 9-1-1 home spread mark at Candlestick.

As for the Bills, they’re just 2-5 vs. the line their last seven on the road, and are also ‘over’ 9-4 their last 13 away from home.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-07-12 05:26 PM
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