The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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dwight007
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Aug 2003
Posts: 771
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Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 11
Las Vegas sharps are dealing with several betting challenges this week in the NFL. There are backup quarterbacks starting for four different teams. And, other teams are considering quarterback changes after midseason slumps. Let’s see what sharps have been betting thus far in NFL Week 11.
Note that Minnesota, the NY Giants, Seattle, and Tennessee all have byes this week, the final week of byes in the 2012 NFL season. Games are presented in Nevada rotation order.
PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON:
This line hasn’t shown any movement. But, it’s sitting on Washington -3.5, which tells you a lot about Sharp sentiment by itself. You regulars know that any line that sits for an extended period of time a half point away from a key number like three or seven is telling you something. If Sharps liked Philadelphia (and backup quarterback Nick Foles), they would have acted right away. A three-point finish in the NFL is common. The fact that they DIDN’T do that tells you Sharps believe Washington is the better team. They’ll wait and see if the public drops the line to three. If not, Sharps will either pass the game or invest in Washington on game day. The total has dropped 46 to 44 because of pessimism about Foles after his poor showing as a backup vs. Dallas last week.
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT:
Green Bay opened at -3 on the road, and was quickly bet up to -3.5, where it’s stayed since. Once again, no Sharp interest on the dog at +3.5. Sharps believe the favorite is the right side in the big picture, and they’ll grab a field goal if they can get it. Note that both Green Bay and Washington had byes last week. Sharps have had good success backing rested teams this season. The opening total of 51 has been bet up to 51.5 or 52 in this indoor attraction.
ARIZONA AT ATLANTA:
We did see support for a dog around a key number here. Arizona opened at +10.5. They were bet down to +10, with some places even showing +9.5 as the support continued. That’s not a universal move though, and some Sharps would consider Atlanta at -9.5 because of their quarterback advantage. For the third straight game, that’s a bye team from last week getting early support, as the Cardinals had the week off. The total has come down from 45.5 to 44
TAMPA BAY AT CAROLINA:
Sportsbooks will have to decide how to handle this one. There’s been Sharp interest in surging Tampa Bay at the opener of -1. Any move higher puts the game in the basic strategy teaser window for underdog Carolina. Games landing on 3 and 7 are so common that Sharps would gladly be on Tampa Bay -1 straight and Carolina +7.5 in two-team teasers. The total is up from 47.5 to 48.5 because Tampa Bay has been playing high scoring games lately and weather isn’t likely to be a negative factor for offenses.
CLEVELAND AT DALLAS:
Dallas opened in the teaser window at -8, which isn’t something you see too much of any more. There has been some underdog interest on Cleveland, the fourth and final bye team from last week. Maybe sportsbooks aren’t afraid of teasers because they’re hoping fresh Cleveland can spring an upset. No interest from Sharps on the total yet. If we don’t mention a total in future games, it’s because Sharps have left that option alone. The clearest sentiment in these first few games is that Sharps are betting the rested teams off their byes.
NY JETS AT ST. LOUIS:
We might have a tug of war spot here, with the Sharps generally liking St. Louis at -3 over the imploding Jets, but some buyback hitting the market after moves to Jets +3.5. We’ll see if the weekend brings more bad news from the embattled Jets locker room. We hearing there’s more general support for the Rams, but the percentage players like defensive dogs at +3.5 no matter what the players are saying to reporters.
INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND: Oddsmakers opened New England at -9.5, just a half point below the key number of 10. Did Sharps bet the favorite? No! They hit the Colts, bringing the number down to +9 in many spots. It’s very unlikely we’d see a drop to New England -8.5 even if Sharps LOVED the Colts because that would put the Pats in the teaser window. All squares betting teasers would want New England -2.5, and books don’t want that kind of exposure. If the public comes in on the Patriots on game day enough to drive the number up to 10, Sharps would take the Colts aggressively.
JACKSONVILLE AT HOUSTON:
Houston opened at a whopping -16 points. There are some old school Sharps who bet every double digit underdog on principle. They were joined by others who thought Houston might be flat off the big Sunday Night victory in Chicago. The number is currently Houston -14.5. or -15 depending on where you shop. The Over/Under has dropped two points from 42.5 down to 40.5 because Jacksonville's offense is so bad, and because Houston has played quick, conservative games as big favorites earlier this season.
CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY: No line movements here off openers of Cincinnati -3.5 and 43.5. As we said at the top, a lack of line movement at a line like -3.5 is telling you a lot. Sharps want no part of the home dog Chiefs or they would have gladly taken the hook. This may be the least bet NFL game of the weekend.
NEW ORLEANS AT OAKLAND:
The home dog Raiders earned Sharp support at the opener of +6.5. The line is now +4.5 or +5 in most places. This is mostly a bet against the Saints porous defense, figuring that Oakland can either cover the game clean or sneak through the back door in garbage time.
SAN DIEGO AT DENVER:
Peyton Manning and the Broncos have earned Sharp respect with their continued success. Many were impressed with the two straight road covers in Cincinnati and Carolina in what has mostly been a year of the underdog in the NFL. Denevr opened at -7, and was bet up to -8. This creates a headache for sportsbooks because that puts Denver in the teaser window in a spot that would appeal very strongly to the public.
BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH:
There’s been a huge move in this game because of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. The earliest offshore numbers before the injury showed Pittsburgh -3. When it looked like he’d be out, the Vegas openers were near pick-em. Sharps have pounded that all the way to the critical number of Baltimore -3 and passed it. We’re now seeing Baltimore -3.5 on the ROAD in a big divisional game. That tells you how little the Sharps think about Byron Leftwich. The total has fallen to 40.5 from early numbers around 45 because Leftwich’s scoring potential seems limited, and because Pittsburgh has been playing low scoring home games all season.
We’re planning a special report Monday to discuss the Chicago-San Francisco game. That one is still off the board in many places because of injuries suffered by both starting quarterbacks last week. Alex Smith is now expected to play for the 49ers, while Jay Cutler is expected to be out for the Bears. We are aware that some Sharps are looking at that Under given the caliber of defenses on the field.
That's all for now, I will post the Monday report when its available, till then Good Luck Den!
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11-17-12 09:56 PM |
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