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Cosmo Kramer
Registered: Apr 2015
Posts: 698
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Mike
Should we pound Caen???
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01-19-18 04:45 PM |
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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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GL with these guys. Havent had enough time to do soccer. so lean on you experts!
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01-19-18 07:34 PM |
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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Anyone with a feel for Brighton vs Chelsea? Brighton is juicy at +529 & Draw +277 and of course Newcastle +2250 vs Man City. After losing to Liverpool last week, I think Man City might open can of whoop ... this week, but man their price is outrageous!
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01-19-18 08:50 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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In Week 24, there’s going to be a lot of moneyline and goal-line parlays involving the big favorites like Man City, Man United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Tottenham. Surely there will be some square bettors taking a chance on all six of them together, but the payout isn’t that great at +850.
In the opening match of the weekend on Saturday morning, Chelsea travel to Brighton without a couple key pieces in Alvaro Morata and Pedro due to suspension. We’ve already seen some big line movement in this one as Chelsea opened -239 but are now down to -159 despite getting nearly 70% of tickets. When these teams met a few weeks ago Chelsea dominated in a 2-0 win, and I’m anticipating a really strong defensive lineup from Conte’s men on Saturday in the early fixture. They’re missing some playmakers and scorers but wouldn’t be surprised to see Eden Hazard pull off something brilliant on his own. With all that said, I was able to grab Brighton at +700 early in the week but I don’t think there’s any value on them at this point after the line movement. Unless the odds go back up, it’s probably worth laying off, but keep an eye on the draw line movement– it’s currently at +292 and getting just 8% of tickets.
One of the teams the public loves this weekend is Everton, which is hard for me to figure out. Maybe it’s the recent acquisition of Theo Walcott from Arsenal, but bets have poured on the home side with nearly 70% of tickets. Even with all the moneyline support, odds have drifted on Everton from +108 to +120 at Pinnacle, and from +102 to +120 at 5Dimes. West Brom are no slouches despite being toward the bottom of the league, and have a string of solid results since losing at Stoke City. All week I’ve been going back-and-forth between taking the draw and West Brom moneyline, so I’m going the conservative route on West Brom +0.5 goals (-125 juice).
I have to wonder if Burnley are still stinging from blowing a 2-0 lead at Manchester United last month. It was still a solid result to draw 2-2 at Old Trafford but they’ve only grabbed one point in the past three matches. Public bettors have been pretty high on Burnley at home to pull the upset, but odds have moved away from them (+575 to +593). They’re sitting pretty in the standings in 7th place and have been the most profitable team to bet on this season so it makes sense public bettors are flocking to them again. However, I think these teams are trending in opposite directions so I’m not taking the bait on the home side.
Before getting to the last value play of the week, I wanted to mention the line movement on Man City/Newcastle. When odds opened on this match I was surprised to see Newcastle listed so high at +2700 and bettors soon followed. Following City’s loss to Liverpool, odds quickly fell to +2450 and ultimately down to +2150. It’s entirely possible I was one of the bettors suckered in to take Newcastle, but at 25/1 it was worth it. This also stresses the importance of having access to multiple books so you can shop for the best line. Bookmaker still only lists Newcastle at +1742, and at that price I wouldn’t bother touching it.
The match I’m most intrigued by this weekend is Leicester vs. Watford. It features the highest total of the weekend (2.75) that doesn’t involve a big favorite, and we’ve seen sharp money move Leicester from +100 to -120 at Pinnacle. They nearly knocked off Chelsea last weekend and held on for an impressive draw after getting a red card in the second half. There’s a lot of talent in the home side and they’ll be looking for revenge after blowing a 1-0 lead in this matchup just three weeks ago. I’m going with Leicester City -115 to secure a home win.
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01-20-18 12:26 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Chelsea have had an intense schedule since the beginning of December and it wasn’t helped by an unneeded FA Cup replay ahead of their Premier League meeting with Brighton. They managed to triumph to the next round, but it took extra time and penalties which will have further fatigued the players. This is a great time to play the champions and the home side have to look for a positive result. Home advantage will be a huge positive and they should approach this fixture with no fear. At times this season, Chris Hughton has been too conservative and that is partly responsible for their poor goal return. That needs to change and quickly.
Brighton would have expected to be facing a battle to survive in their first season in the Premier League. They are currently in 16th position, but the gap to the bottom three has narrowed in recent weeks. The Seagulls are only three points clear of danger and they are likely to be fighting at the foot of the table until the final weeks of the season. They have yet to make any January additions, despite the clear need for a new striker. The next few weeks will be crucial in shaping the future for the club and a good result this weekend will give them the positive momentum that they desperately need.
Antonio Conte had a superb first season in England as he won the Premier League and took Chelsea back into the Champions League. This season is far from over, but the Italian will be disappointed by their struggles in the league. They are already 15 points behind Manchester City and their chances of retaining their title are close to zero. Considering the dominance that they showed last season, that is a troubling decline. Their manager will allude to his small squad, as he has had to deal with more matches. However, that is partly his own fault as he has chosen to loan a number of good players out. The Blues have now failed to win any of their last four matches in all competitions, scoring only one goal during that time.
INTERESTING STATS
Only bottom side Swansea City have scored fewer goals than Brighton. The Seagulls have hit the back of the net on only 17 0ccasions. This needs to be addressed if they are to stay in the division.
Chelsea registered their third consecutive 0-0 draw last weekend against Leicester City. This was something that they had previously never done in their history.
VERDICT
Considering the fatigue and lack of confidence in the Chelsea squad, there is never a better time to face the current champions. They will be missing both Pedro and Morata through suspension, which leaves Conte with few options this weekend. It could be a good time to blood Ross Barkley, but he hasn’t played much football in the last 12 months and it would be asking a lot for him to come straight in and deliver a match-winning performance. Eden Hazard has to step up as he has been less than satisfactory during recent weeks. Given their recent form, it is difficult to see them winning. Their defensive solidity coupled with Brighton’s blunt attack means that a loss is unlikely, but the Blues may be facing another bore draw.
BRIGHTON 0-0 CHELSEA
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01-20-18 08:56 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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On Saturday, Premier League football resumes as Manchester United make a short trip to Turf Moor to face a Burnley side suffering a dip in form.
After a largely impressive first half of the season, the Lancashire club have struggled to see games through in the Premier League. Sean Dyche’s men have yet to win in the last 7 games – losing 3 in the process and although they are seventh in the division, punching way above their weight – there are reasons to feel aggrieved. Dyche has done a fabulous job so far with the North West club but with only 5 points separating them and Arsenal – they have every right to aim to break into the European places, no matter how unrealistic they might seem – on paper.
They have lost the last 2 games at home against Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur – but should be up for a tussle when Man United come to town – after earning a well deserved point against them in the reverse fixture in December.
For Manchester United, the football has been picking up steam – but the focus has been centred around the two impending announcements that could boost not only the morale but also the quality within the squad.
Jose Mourinho has reportedly agreed to extend his contract till 2022 – sowing seeds of longevity under the notoriously short-term thinking Jose Mourinho while the first team squad is getting themselves ready to welcome Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez – who could arrive as early as the weekend to vastly improve an already talented yet unrefined group of players with his wealth of experience and match-winning expertise.
Add to that – the recent defeat of Manchester City at the hands of Liverpool, has cut the gap down to 12, keeping United motivated as they go into this final third of the campaign, leading the chasing pack.
TEAM NEWS
Jose Mourinho has no fresh injury concerns for the tip to Turf Moor. The Red Devils will be without the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic (knee), Eric Bailly (ankle) and Michael Carrick (heart) – with the trio not expected back before the end of the month.
Burnley hope to welcome Scott Arfield back from a tight hamstring but Chris Wood and Stephen Ward (both knee) are still a few days away. Robbie Brady (knee) and Tom Heaton (shoulder) remain sidelined.
INTERESTING NUMBERS
Burnley have won one of their last 24 matches against Manchester United in all competitions (D10 L13), a 1-0 win in the Premier League in August 2009.
Man Utd are unbeaten in their last five away PL matches (W4 D1), scoring at least twice each time.
This will be Sean Dyche’s 100th PL match as a manager.
PREDICTION
United are buoyed by the imminent arrival of a new signing, which is always a good thing. They should have enough in the tank to get maximum points on Saturday.
Burnley 1-3 Manchester United
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01-20-18 09:06 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Alex Oxlade Chamberlain announced three days before Liverpool’s clash with Manchester City that the Citizens were “still human,” before he and his Liverpool team went and proved it.
It could be argued that the scoreline flattered Manchester City, and could have been much worse if it wasn’t for Liverpool displaying their own vulnerabilities at the other end of the pitch and City some rigidity.
What this does offer others taking on Pep’s side is hope. Manchester City can be beaten.
Luck will need to play a critical role to see a Magpies win this Saturday, but seeing the Citizens fall to their first defeat of the season must offer some confidence to Benitez’ players, even if only for a second.
How Manchester City react to their first loss could be critical to their season. The likelihood is that the status quo returns and Manchester City sweep aside a struggling Newcastle. But, if Newcastle can muster a result at the Etihad this Saturday, the seed of doubt will most definitely be planted in Guardiola’s head.
Pep’s pressing problem
Analysing last Sunday’s game deeper, it is no real surprise that Pep’s men struggled with Liverpool’s style of play, counter-pressing is Manchester City’s kryptonite. The Reds manager has now beaten his Manchester City counterpart on five occasions, more than any other manager.
On average, City have held the highest defensive line in the Premier League this season. The ball has been in the oppositions third 34% of the time in Manchester City games this season; a league-high.
What this offers is play in the opposition’s half, so when the Citizens can win possession they are already close to goal and if they lose possession, then the distance the opposition must cover to get to City’s box is vast.
A tactic that has worked well this season. That is until they visited Anfield.
Jurgen Klopp’s pace running throughout the side caused the defensive high-line problems. Mane on one wing, Salah on the other and Oxlade Chamberlain running through the middle, and suddenly Stones and Otamendi are more than just aware of the through ball between themselves and Ederson.
The City defence lost confidence in their high line and dropped deeper to prevent such a pass. This may somewhat solve the ball over the top, but meant that when City did lose the ball, Liverpool were already in range of goal.
At the other end, the midfield dropped to secure the space between themselves and defence, meaning that their creative flairs in Kevin De Bruyne were occupying a space where it was much harder to make a difference in and around Liverpool’s box.
Why Newcastle need to change their style
Liverpool’s win last Sunday was City’s deepest line of the season and a tactical masterclass from Jurgen Klopp and his Reds. But it was a tactic that Liverpool were more than comfortable to apply; Klopp’s form of Gegenpressing has been instilled into his Liverpool side since his appointment back in 2015.
Newcastle’s style of play is the antithesis of Liverpool’s high-octane soccer: two banks of four sitting deep in order to prevent gaps in and around their box. Manchester City have shown time and time again this season that a deep formation fails to prevent their interplay from creating goalscoring chances, as they slowly and surely break down the opposition.
Has Rafa Benitez got the ability and, more importantly, the resources in his squad to play a fast-paced style against Manchester City? Granted, most of the time this will result in a comprehensive loss, but, if luck also goes their way, it could offer the best chance for a Magpies win.
The question is, do Newcastle have the players to offer running behind Manchester City’s defence? In short, no. They have attempted just one through ball per game this season, only Swansea and Burnley have attempted fewer.
Whilst Gayle does offer pace up top, his movement rarely sways from directly in front of goal, so spaces left by Manchester City’s high fullbacks is likely to be used.
Christian Atsu offers running behind the defence on the left-hand side, but on the other side - where Mohammed Salah was so influential last Sunday - Ritchie offers very little running behind.
Manchester City have won their last 10 home matches in the Premier League, and bettors will expect that streak to continue. -2.75 handicap odds of 2.250* could be a smart bet, particularly as Manchester City have scored at least three goals in eight of their last 10 home matches.
The Citizens have also been leading at both half-time at full-time in eight of their last ten home matches in the Premier League. Manchester City’s -1.25 first half handicap odds of 2.160* could offer value in a game that looks to be very much City’s to lose.
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01-20-18 09:14 AM |
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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Saturday ECL
2* Bolton vs Ipswich Draw +214
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01-20-18 12:28 PM |
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