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dwight007
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Registered: Aug 2003
Posts: 771

Las Vegas Sharps Report -NFL Week 8

Every Friday we’re happy to post our weekly look at how Wise Guys have been betting pro football. This information is based on line moves and consultations with those in the know in Las Vegas and offshore. Sharps are starting to find their footing recently after suffering through a very poor start to the 2013 football season. Once again, we’ll take the games in rotation order. Let’s jump right in!

SAN FRANCISCO AT JACKSONVILLE (in London):
Did oddsmakers not realize this was a neutral site game? The opener of San Francisco -14.5 was out of line with how little respect Jacksonville has been getting in recent weeks. Sharps immediately hit the Niners hard, driving the line up to -16.5 in short order. Some stores were testing SF -17 as we went to press. Sharps would come in back over the top on the Jags at +17.5…and possibly at +17 if that’s the best they see before kickoff and aim for a middle. Very odd that Denver would be -27 at home over the Jags, but that oddsmakers would think SF -14.5 on a neutral field made sense. Not much interest on the total. We won’t mention Over/Unders except in games where Sharps have shown a meaningful interest.

DALLAS AT DETROIT:
Very little betting interest in this game to this point. Detroit opened at -3 on its home field, which is where most everyone in the market thinks the line belongs. Sharps would fade any public move off the key number. Remember though that it takes A LOT of money to move an NFL game off a solid three. Some of the situational sharps are looking at Detroit because Dallas is playing on the road immediately after winning a road divisional game, while the Lions are at home off a home loss. The numbers guys think three is right.

NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA:
Philadelphia opened at -6.5 on the assumption that Michael Vick would be back at quarterback. He is returning, but Sharps bet against the Eagles anyway because they’re not fond of Vick, and they like divisional revenge at more than a field goal. We’re now seeing Philadlephia at only -5.5 at most stores. The total has been bet down from 54 down to 51.5. Some of that is weather related…and some based skepticism about Vick as well as Chip Kelly’s offense in general as some believe the league is figuring out how to deal with the “Oregon” approach.

CLEVELAND AT KANSAS CITY:
Not much interest here, even with the news that Jason Campbell would start at quarterback for the Browns over Brandon Weeden. Sharps think Weeden is horrible. They want to see a good game from Campbell before investing in him. Sharps did make some money on Brian Hoyer before he got hurt. This is likely to be one of the least bet games on Sunday in terms of side and total. Kansas City at -7.5 does fall into the teaser window that Sharps like to play. So, Chiefs minus 1.5 will be placed in a lot of teasers from Sharps and squares alike if the line doesn’t move.

BUFFALO AT NEW ORLEANS:
Buffalo was a steam play last Sunday, and Sharps cashed in easily when the Bills beat the Dolphins outright as a road underdog. The same contingents are investing again here, as New Orleans -12.5 on the opener has been bet down to Buffalo +11 and even +10.5 on Sharp action. You know the public wouldn’t ever bet against Drew Brees at home against a team like the Bills. That’s Wise Guy money on Buffalo. The opening total of 50 is down in some places to 49 or 48.5.

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND:
New England opened at -7, and was bet down quickly to what’s been a solid Miami +6.5 ever since. This is actually a strong move even though it’s only half a point. That’s because a key number was involved…and because it went AWAY from a home team the public usually likes to bet on. Sharps felt so strongly about Miami +7 that they didn’t want to risk missing out on it. If the public hits the Pats before kickoff to drive the line higher, Sharps will grab more of the Dolphins.

NY JETS AT CINCINNATI:
Similar story here with an opener of Cincinnati -7 being bet down to NY Jets +6.5. Sharps like what they’re seeing from the Jets defense this year…and they’re seeing more positive than negative with rooking quarterback Geno Smith. Also, Cincinnati hasn’t been playing like a blowout team this year. It’s easy to stay close with the Bengals given their style of play. The Over/Under has been bet up from 40 to 41, which is either the result of a nice weather forecast, or more affection for Geno Smith.

PITTSBURGH AT OAKLAND:
Another move toward the dog off a key number. And, this time is was off the magic number of three. The Steelers opened at -3 in this West Coast affair. Sharps bet Oakland down to +2.5 where it’s stayed ever since. That will put the Raiders in the teaser window for a move past the 3 and the 7 up to +8.5. It’s telling that there wasn’t any interest in Pittsburgh market-wise to take the game back to three. Sharps have been pleasantly surprised with Terrelle Pryor, though many did take a hit with him in the loss at Kansas City. Also in play, Oakland had a bye last week, giving them several extra days of rest and preparation.

WASHINGTON AT DENVER: T
he big move here was on the Over, as an opener of 55 shot way up to 58.5 and 59. Both defenses have struggled this season. Denver can light up the scoreboard against any poor defense. And, RGIII of the Redskins finally put up a big number last week against Chicago. Bad opening total! Denver has received some support as a team side, with an opener of -12 being bet up to -12.5. Redskins money would definitely come in at +14 if the public were to move the line that high…and might even come in at +13 if the public has soured on a Broncos team that’s stopped covering spreads.

ATLANTA AT ARIZONA:
No interest here on the opener of Arizona -2.5. But, the fact that the game didn’t move toward the key number of three is telling you a lot. If Sharps liked Arizona, they would have jumped on that -2.5 immediately. They didn’t bite at all. That tells you sharps will love Atlanta in teasers at +8.5…and would come in hard on the Falcons at +3 if the public were to back the host.

GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA:
Green Bay has been moved up from -7.5 to -9. Some of that is from sportsbooks who don’t want to deal with the Packers in teasers. A line -9 scoots them out of the teaser window. Note that the announcement that Christian Ponder was returning to start for the Vikings in place of Josh Freeman didn’t budge the number at all. Wise Guy action may come in on the Vikings on game day as a TD plus home dog against a hated divisional rival.

SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS (Monday Night): Seattle opened at -10, and was bet up to -11 even though the game is on the road. Kellen Clemens will get the start for the Rams, who were reportedly trying to woo Brett Favre out of retirement. Nothing would kill a team’s hopes for the rest of the season faster than that! The opening total of 43 has been bet down to 42.5 and 42 on the assumption that Clemens will be overmatched by this elite Seattle defense.
Thats all this week, as always Good Luck Den!!!

Old Post 10-26-13 02:07 AM
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wildcat76
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thank you for this

Old Post 10-26-13 07:38 PM
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Almostfamous


Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 279

great read, thanks!

Old Post 10-27-13 12:05 AM
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markinc7
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Old Post 10-27-13 02:36 PM
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