BetShare
WAT/CRY

Spread
WAT (0 & +0.5) 54%
CRY (0 & -0.5) 46%

ML
Watford 31%
C Palace 25%
Draw 44%

Tot (2.5)
Ov 64%
Un 36%

SOC [201986] EIBAR +116.....L

YTD
45-32-6 +35.58

To look at the fixture schedule in La Liga and not see either Barcelona or Real Madrid is somewhat underwhelming, but that’s because the former are in action in the Copa del Rey final this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET).

The league leaders face Sevilla and are aiming to lift their first trophy under Ernesto Valverde with a double very much on the cards, even if dreams of the treble disappeared after an unforgettable loss in Rome. Indeed, both of these sides exited the Champions League at the quarterfinal stage, but Sevilla did so in far less dramatic and embarrassing fashion.

A 2-1 aggregate defeat to Bayern Munich is nothing to be sniffed at, and Los Rojiblancos have enjoyed the underdog role in the past. It’s when Vincenzo Montella’s side have been expected to win that things have gone awry. Last month, Sevilla secured a famous victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford but have failed to win in the seven matches since — although they have still earned some decent results in that time.

Since the turn of the year, the Andalusian outfit have picked up two victories over Atletico Madrid to reach this stage of the cup, defeated United and drawn with Bayern, Villarreal and Barcelona. It’s heavy defeats to the likes of Eibar and Celta Vigo that render Sevilla so unpredictable.

With that in mind, Barcelona (-236) must be wary and they certainly don’t seem to have fully recovered from what was a dreadful match in the Italian capital on April 10th. Barca were fortunate to beat Valencia on Saturday before drawing with Celta this week.

The tie between these two sides just three weeks ago should be warning enough that Sevilla (+686), on their day, aren’t to be underestimated.
Barca required two very late goals to earn that point after Sevilla had taken a 2-0 lead at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium. Not surprisingly, it was Lionel Messi who came to the rescue from the bench to keep the Catalans’ La Liga unbeaten streak intact. There’s no chance the Argentine will be rested on Saturday, however, and without wanting to state the obvious, he is the man that Montella will be most keen to keep quiet in the final.

The 30-year-old has failed to score in his last three appearances after finding the net 12 times in his previous nine games, but he loves to play against Sevilla as much as they hate to face him. Indeed, Messi has scored more goals in his career against this Saturday’s opponents than any other (30), including 13 in the past 13 meetings.

Depending on the bookmaker, you can find odds between 1.44 (-227) and 1.64 (-156) on the forward to score at any time, and I would advise a bet only toward the top end of that range. There isn’t a great deal of value on Barcelona to win either, so one needs to dig a little more deeply to find the best bets for this weekend.

The prices on over 2.5 goals are also incredibly low, so with both a Barcelona win and plenty of goals being scored looking so likely in the odds, the fact that you can find an offer as high as 2.75 (+175) on the favorites to win and both teams scoring is very tempting. Including last month’s draw with Sevilla, Barcelona have conceded in six consecutive matches, with a particularly suspect defense in the latter stages of matches.

The champions-elect in Spain have conceded in the second half of all six of said fixtures, and in the final 10 minutes of four of their last five. With Barca having also scored themselves after the break in all six of said encounters, however, the real drama may come late on in Madrid so odds of 3.00 (+200) on both teams finding the net in the second half could be worth a bet.

late start this morning for me ,going to work on some MLS for later.

2* LAFC vs Montreal Draw +253

LAFC has been on road since start of season and Montreal has shown very little punch offensively,which leads me to believe this has solid chance at 1-1 game and with Montreal already having 2 cleansheets,0-0 wouldnt completely surprise me either.But bottom line is I think scoring will be limited which always make me suspect good Draw potential and value.GL

Chicago Fire at New York Red Bulls (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: NY Red Bulls -205, Chicago +562, Draw +396

The crowd showed up last week in Chicago, but the Fire were shut out against Ibrahimovic and the LA Galaxy, losing, 1-0. Chicago have struggled putting anything together offensively with only 19 shots on target in five games, including four home matches.

Last week the Red Bulls won, 3-1, vs. Montreal, a nice bounce-back victory after bowing out of the Champions League. I expected the Red Bulls to open at least -200 in this one, and they’re currently at -205/-210 around the market. That’s a fair price considering this game could be a blowout

New England Revolution at Columbus Crew (Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Columbus -152, NE Revs +439, Draw +322

The Revs lost, 1-0, at home against Dallas last weekend in tough conditions, a rare letdown for the hosts in Foxboro. They generated chances and played well overall, but couldn’t find the back of the net. On Saturday night they have a chance to equal last season’s entire point total on the road (one win, three draws, 13 losses) if they can get a win in Ohio.

The Crew are coming off a 1-0 road loss at DC United, a really poor result considering they were up a man for the last 40 minutes and outshot DC 24-5. They’ve mustered only one goal over the last three games after netting eight in their first four. Has it recently just been bad luck, or was their early season eruption a facade?

Columbus opened -154 on the moneyline, much higher than I expected. This is a match that both teams believe they can, and should, win — even New England on the road. I love the value on the Revs +0.5 goals (+125) to keep this one close and possibly even get the victory.

San Jose Earthquakes at Orlando City SC (Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Orlando City -142, San Jose +396, Draw +324

Orlando City have now won three straight games and even held Philadelphia goalless last weekend in a 2-0 road victory. It was a nice payout for those who backed them at +465 odds.

San Jose will head to Florida off two straight draws and they probably wouldn’t mind another as the odds on one are +325. The Earthquakes are +396 to win outright while Orlando City are -142 favorites, all justified lines

While Arsenal’s focus may be on the Europa League at this point, the Gunners will come out with as much will to win as is humanly possible after the announcement that Arsene Wenger will step down at the end of the season. The emotions will be high in the stands and in the players. The Europa League is, rightfully, the main focus for the rest of the season, but every last game under Wenger will be a must win.

West Ham put themselves on the brink of safety with their 1-1 draw against Stoke City on Monday. They will look to take three points and lift themselves to 38 for the season, a total that should be enough to ensure they stay in the Premier League next season. While that may be the Hammers’ hope, it will be tough to imagine a more motivated Arsenal team than the one that will show up on Sunday after the Wenger announcement.

TEAM NEWS
Arsenal will be without Santi Cazorla and Henrikh Mkhitaryan and could also be without Jack Wilshere as there are some “uncertainties” over his fitness according to Arsene Wenger.

Michail Antonio, Pedro Obiang, Sam Byram, Winston Reid, and James Collins are all expected to miss out, according to Physioroom.com. Angelo Ogbonna could also miss out as he will undergo a late fitness test, according to Physioroom.com.


KEY PLAYERS
Arsenal: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Aubameyang has not been at Arsenal too long, but he, along with everyone else, will be desperate to help Wenger win as many games as he can. As far as the Premier Leauge goes, Aubameyang is one of the best to help with that job. Since joining, he’s contributed to eight goals in 701 minutes or 1.03 goals per 90 minutes. He can score and will likely be a difference maker in this match.

West Ham: Marko Arnautovic

West Ham were considered too good to go down by many going into the season a lot impart to their skilled attacking players. They do look like they will be too good to go down and in no small part because of one of those skilled attacking players: Marko Arnautovic. The Austrian has scored or assisted 13 goals, more than anyone else in the team. While he did not contribute to a goal against Stoke, he scored two in their 3-0 win over Southampton and assisted their only goal in their 1-1 draw against Chelsea. When he plays well, West Ham have a much better chance of scoring goals and getting points than when he does not.

PREDICTION
Arsenal are the more talented team, they are the home team, and they will without a doubt be the more motivated team on Sunday. Anything other then an Arsenal win will be a shock.

Prediction: 5-1 win for Arsenal

The FA Cup may not be as revered as it once was, but it remains a highlight of the English footballing calendar. There are many that believe this stage of the competition should be played on neutral grounds, but Wembley provides a spectacle that is difficult to replicate. Chelsea and Southampton will do battle for the second time in just over a week, with both teams needing a win for different reasons. Although this competition isn’t a priority for Saints as they attempt to stay in the Premier League, they need to gain some confidence from somewhere and a win on Sunday will do that. Meanwhile, last season’s Premier League champions need to salvage their season and winning this competition is the only way to do that.

Chelsea have won the FA Cup on seven occasions and they will be desperate to lift it for an eighth time in May. Antonio Conte looks to be on his way out of the club, due to a strained relationship with the board. However, he remains a world class manager and he will want to finish his time in charge on a high. This is a competition that he has never won and may not get the opportunity to lift again, depending on where his career takes him in the future. After a tough start in 2018, the Blues have won their last two matches and go into this semi-final in better form.

On the other hand, Southampton can’t buy a win and they are sleepwalking towards relegation after six seasons in the Premier League. It would be a surprise if they do eventually finish in the bottom three as they have been regulars in the top ten since their promotion in 2012. However, they have won only five times this season and deserve to be in the position they are currently in. On paper, this semi-final looks easy to predict, but Mark Hughes has a lot of talent in his squad and they showed last weekend that they can cause problems for Chelsea. They took a two-goal lead and arguably would have won the game if they weren’t so low on confidence. They will be the outsiders on Sunday, but it would be idiotic to rule them out.

INTERESTING STATS
Chelsea haven’t kept a clean sheet in ten matches across all competitions. Antonio Conte has been known for his ability to organise a team, but he has failed to succeed in that this season.

Four of Southampton’s last five victories came in the FA Cup. They have played their best football in this competition and Chelsea need to be wary of that.

KEY MEN
Hazard

Chelsea have had a miserable season and Eden Hazard will be underwhelmed by his own contribution. The PFA award winners have now been announced and his name was nowhere to be seen. In fact, his omission has barely worth commenting on as he has done little to earn a place in the team of the year. He has regularly caused problems for opposition sides and been the main focus of the Chelsea attack, but his end product has been lacking. A return of 12 goals and three assists in the Premier League is respectable, but a player of the Belgian’s quality will be expecting more from himself. The main problem for him has been a lack of support. Defenders know that he is the main threat, therefore there are two or three men regularly keeping an eye on his movements, which makes it difficult. The best players often step up when it matters and Hazard will be motivated to be the difference this weekend and help his team to another final.

Romeu

Southampton will need to dig in and show a resiliency that hasn’t been present in recent weeks. They have regularly given up after conceding a goal and a similar mentality will see them easily beaten at Wembley. The player that will be most important for them will be Oriol Romeu and he will be keen to impress against his former side. Since the sale of Victor Wanyama, the Spanish midfielder has stepped up and proven himself to be one of the most consistent defensive midfielders in the league. There won’t be a shortage of options for him in the summer if Southampton are relegated to the Championship. He has averaged 2.06 tackles and 2.06 interceptions per ninety minutes in the Premier League, while he has won 56.3% of his aerial duels. The underdogs will need to fight hard to come out on top and their 26-year-old ball-winner will be expected to lead by example.

TEAM NEWS
Marcos Alonso won’t be available for Chelsea as he continues to serve his suspension. Danny Drinkwater is a doubt, while Ethan Ampadu and David Luiz will miss out with long-term injuries. Olivier Giroud is likely to lead the line after his two-goal haul against the same opposition last weekend.

Southampton have a near full-strength squad to choose from with Mario Lemina being the only doubt with a back injury. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Charlie Austin get recalled to the starting eleven, while Steven Davis and Nathan Redmond will also be pushing to be included from the start.

VERDICT
The fixture between these two teams last weekend resulted in five goals being scored and given the vulnerability of both teams, a similar score-line is likely on Sunday. Chelsea look totally lost at the back in recent weeks, while Southampton lose all confidence after conceding. The Blues are the most likely winners this weekend. Their quality will be too much for their relegation-threatened opposition, but the match should be an entertaining watch for the neutral.

Chelsea 3-1 Southampton

BetShare
ARS/WHU

Spread
ARS (-1) 55%
WHU (+1) 45%

ML
Arsenal 28%
West Ham 32%
Draw 40%

Tot (2 & 2.5)
Ov 63%
Un 37%

this is getting hammered

SOC [200018] TOTAL (WEST HAM vrs ARSENAL) u3-108

YTD
45-32-6 +35.58

Troyes found the net in just two of L8 matches and have been anaemic on the road in general, with just one point from the last 36 available as a result.

SOC [202541] TOTAL o2½-120 (SCHALKE 04 vrs FC KOLN)
SOC [203330] NICE EV
SOC [203334] ST. ETIENNE -1-125

1 for 5.60

359532922
SOC VfB Stuttgart DRAW +231

359532923
SOC Bayern Munich -1.25 -105 .......winner

359532924
SOC Hamburger SV DRAW +233

359532925
SOC RB Leipzig +118

359532926
SOC Borussia Dortmund DRAW +264

server issue kept me from posting todays S Africa draw

[Ticket #: 359680499] STRAIGHT BET
04/22/2018 @ 08:00 AM SOC [222103] Bidvest Wits FC DRAW +203

Bidvest Wits FC DRAW +203 ...winner

YES !

SOC [200018] TOTAL (WEST HAM vrs ARSENAL) u3-108.......L

SOC [202541] TOTAL o2½-120 (SCHALKE 04 vrs FC KOLN) ............W
SOC [203330] NICE EV............W
SOC [203334] ST. ETIENNE -1-125.....P

1 for 5.60 with the push

1 for 2.66.........W

YTD
46-33-6 +38.16

Finally a good weekend. 2-0

LAFC at Montreal O3 +110...W
Houston Dynamo -1, -1.5 -105...W

Both these were easy as the Dynamo won 5-1 and there were 8 goals in the LAFC/Montreal match.

Totals
12-14 -0.98 units

Public bettors all over Juventus today but the line keeps moving away from them. I like Napoli +0.5 (-140) to get a result on the road and stay in the Serie A title race.

Biggest payouts around Europe this weekend

Benevento +1250 at AC Milan
Guingamp +354 vs. Monaco
Malaga +350 vs. Sociedad
Crotone +350 at Udinese
Hertha Berlin +330 at Frankfurt
Espanyol +324 at Girona
West Brom/Liverpool Draw +315

Newcastle at Everton (Monday, 3 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Everton +131, Newcastle +246, Draw +235

Both clubs currently sit in the top 10 of the league table with 11 wins and 14 losses apiece. After opening at Pinnacle, the line moved toward Newcastle to get a road result but there’s not a lot of public betting data yet. I’d expect tickets and money to continue to come in on Newcastle, winners of four consecutive matches.