another big weekend ahead, let's keep rolling folks !
GL

All the top clubs vying for a domestic league title were victorious in Spain and Germany last weekend: Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Dortmund.

Barcelona still old a seven-point lead over Atletico Madrid at the top of Spain’s La Liga while Bayern Munich and Dortmund remain tied for first in the German Bundesliga.

Despite going down, 1-0, at home Barcelona rallied back for a 3-1 win against Rayo Vallecano to remain seven points ahead of Atletico Madrid for La Liga title.

Barcelona are now gigantic -5500 favorites to win the league with Atletico coming in at +2500.

Third-place Real Madrid sacked head coach Santiago Solari following their Champions League elimination and replaced him with their previous manager, Zinedine Zidane.

They likely won’t win a trophy this season and have to start preparing for 2019-20 at this point.

Villarreal were the only bottom-five club to earn points last weekend as they earned a crucial 2-0 road win. Just four points separate the five clubs at the bottom of La Liga: Huesca (22), Rayo Vallecano (23), Celta Vigo (25), Villarreal (26) and Valladolid (26).

Looking ahead to this weekend, Barcelona have fallen from +260 to +220 to win at Real Betis. The Catalans just stormed past Lyon, 5-1, in Wednesday’s Champions League second leg and still have a chance to win every trophy this season, but bettors are fading them on the road.

Second-place Atletico Madrid face a stern road test at Atletico Bilbao, and will have to completely forget about their 3-0 debacle to Juventus in the Champions League Round of 16.

However, early sharp money doesn’t have much faith and have been betting against Diego Simeone’s side.

The biggest line moves so far have been toward Real Betis (+465 to +400), Eibar (-115 to -140) and Huesca (+165 to +150).

Something bettors should also keep in mind is the fact that three clubs played in the Europa League Round of 16 on Thursday night: Sevilla, Valencia and Villarreal.

Odds could swing dramatically after those matches are played based on injuries, suspensions, fatigue, etc.

Lopsided Bets for Friday's European Action

86% on Lille (+105)
86% on Sociedad (-115)
79% on Nice (+120)
79% on MGladbach (-170)
47% on Fiorentina (+135)

Cost of 30 minutes of extra time:

Once Sevilla went into extra time at Slavia Prague in yesterday's Europa League Round of 16, odds shifted from +155 to +190 for their match this weekend at Espanyol. To make matters worse, Slavia Prague scored in the final minutes to advance.

Bayern Munich and Dortmund both picked up multi-goal victories last weekend to remain level on points with 57 apiece.

However, Bayern Munich are the clear Bundesliga title favorites at -375 odds while Dortmund are available at +260.

The focus for each club will now to be the domestic league race since each were knocked out by English opposition in the Champions League Round of 16.

Dortmund have a far tougher match-up this weekend as slim -110 road faves at Hertha Berlin while Bayern Munich have enormous -775 odds to beat Mainz at home.

Every single match in the Bundesliga features an odds-on favorite, and the early line movement has shifted toward every one.

There’s also a battle at the bottom of the table with Stuttgart and Augsburg trying to avoid relegation.

Stuttgart are currently even money to be demoted while Augsburg are +400. Both clubs play home matches this weekend with a chance to take all three points and move up the table.

There hasn’t been drastic line movement to speak of, but that will surely change over the next couple days. I would certainly lean toward RB Leipzig (-105) and Augsburg (-160) to pick up wins as favorites, and Dusseldorf (+360) to upset Wolfsburg on their own turf.

La Liga Relegation Battle: Relegation battles toward the end of the season can make for some exciting viewing and right now, no race for survival is hotter than in Spain’s La Liga.

Huesca holds up the league with 22 points but Rayo Vallecano has lost six straight games and is now 19th with 23 points. Celta Vigo, long missing talisman Iago Aspas, is now 18th with just 25 points. Real Valladolid and Villarreal sit 16th and 17th respectively while Levante, not out of the woods yet, has 30 points thanks to four losses in its last five games and is 15th.

For what it’s worth, Huesca is on the best form over the last six games among those bottom-feeder clubs with 10 points over that stretch. They’ve also scored the joint-third most goals in La Liga (10) in those last six games. Not bad, and it makes their +150 moneyline price against Alaves this weekend somewhat intriguing. SOMEWHAT.

Schalke Reaching New Lows: It’s crazy to think, but a team that reached the Champions League Round of 16 is actually facing a relegation threat in the league. That team is Schalke and after getting hammered 7-0 by Manchester City in their Champions League game Tuesday, they now face an uphill climb in the Bundesliga.

The Gelsenkirchen club is 14th in the 18-team Bundesliga and is sitting on 23 points, one point up on Augsburg and four up on Stuttgart. While they do have a comfortable cushion on 17th-placed Hannover and 18th-placed Nürnburg, that 16th spot in the table, which would put them in a playoff, is creeping up.

Schalke hasn’t won a league game since January 20 when it beat Wolfsburg 2-1 at home. Since then, they have five losses and two draws. Just five points since calendars turned to 2019. Left on the schedule for them are tough fixtures against Leipzig (more on that shortly), Frankfurt, Hoffenheim, Dortmund, Leverkusen and a potentially massive home game against Stuttgart to finish the season.

On these Saturday. Current record is 30-28 (+2.67)

West Ham -152 to win 2 units...my top play

To win one unit each:
Norwich City -.5, -1 -139 (Eng Champ)
Sheffield Wed +104 (Eng Champ)
Accrington +107 (Eng1)
Forest Green -116 (Eng2)
MK Dons -.5,-1 -119 (Eng2)

Parlays: Record 8-20 (+17.5)

Norwich -173 (Eng Champ)
Luton -301 (Eng1)
Sunderland -200 (Eng1)
Bury -182 (Eng2)
1 to win 3.8

West Ham -151
Norwich -171
Sheffield Wed +104
1 to win 4.4

Watford v Crystal Palace | Saturday 16th March 2019, 12:15 | BT Sport
This is the most interesting tie of the FA Cup quarter-finals, in my opinion, with these two having formed somewhat of a rivalry over the last few seasons.

I believe it began when Wilfried Zaha won Crystal Palace a penalty in the 2013 play-off final and continued when the Eagles defeated Watford in the semi-final of the FA Cup three years ago.

Zaha is certainly key to this rivalry, having frequently been targeted by Watford players. Last season the Ivorian inspired a comeback in the dying minutes to secure a 2-1 victory for his side but this season it's been Watford who have secured victories by that scoreline, although the first encounter was marred by a horrendous challenge from Etienne Capuoue.

Since that play-off final six seasons ago, these two have met nine teams, with Palace securing four wins to Watford's three but all victories have finished by a single goal margin. Five of those nine matches have finished 2-1 to either side and with that in mind, I like the look of backing both options. Watford to win 2-1 is 35/4 with Sportingbet while the same bet on Palace is 21/2 with BetVictor.

Given that Watford have scored in 11 of their 14 home matches and Palace have found the net in 13 of their 15 away league games this term, I couldn't put the more conservative of you off from backing Both Teams To Score at 4/5 with William Hill. I would bet in such a way that if this comes in but the Correct Score predictions don't then you are still in profit.

I also feel that Gerard Delefeou is too big at 11/4 in the Anytime Goalscorer market but four recommendation feels like one too many for this column.

BEST O2.5 TEAMS

78% Elgin
78% PSG
76% Bayern Munich
73% Man Utd
72% Dortmund
72% Frankfurt
72% Hoffenheim
71% Annan
70% Atalanta
70% Empoli
70% Man City
70% Rochdale
68% Augsburg
68% Berwick
68% Dusseldorf
68% Stuttgart
68% Wolfsburg

BEST BTTS TEAMS

88% Hoffenheim
84% Werder Bremen
79% Raith
73% Arsenal
72% Augsburg
72% Dortmund
70% Man Utd
69% Sunderland
68% Annan
68% Dumbarton
68% Frankfurt
68% Portsmouth
68% Strasbourg
68% West Brom
67% Brechin
67% Genoa

It’s been an incredibly successful couple weeks for the Premier League with four clubs qualifying for the Champions League quarterfinals (Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Tottenham) and two others making the Europa League quarterfinals (Arsenal and Chelsea).

England now makes up 37.5% of the teams left in European cup competition and the odds of an EPL club winning the Champions League are -150.

Only two of those clubs, Chelsea and Liverpool, will be playing a Premier League match this weekend due to the FA Cup quarterfinals.

The Blues have a chance to move within a single point of Tottenham for third-place if they can defeat Everton on the road, and the Reds can surpass Man City at the top of the league by defeating Fulham.

Despite just a single point gap at the top of the standings, Manchester City remain -275 favorites to win the league while Liverpool are +225.

Home teams dominated again in Week 30, winning seven of the 10 matches. They’re now +28 units on the season while draws have dipped down all the way to -80 units.

Leicester City regained their winning ways against lowly Fulham to keep the top spot in moneyline profitability (+12.52 units).

Fulham continue to be the least profitable club, costing bettors more than 20 units.

With just five matches on the board it isn’t the most compelling weekend to bet the EPL, but there’s still been plenty of action nonetheless.

West Ham (-170) are the only odds-on home favorites and we’ve seen multiple waves of bets on the Hammers to get the victory.

Huddersfield have been abysmal this season by scoring just 0.5 goals per match, and they are essentially a lock to be relegated at -150000 odds ($150,000 to make $100).

We could easily see West Ham reach the -200 range around the market with another flow of bets before kickoff

Early sharp bettors have hit both sides of Bournemouth-Newcastle, but the majority of wagers has come in on Newcastle (+280) to pick up the road upset.

Last weekend The Magpies stormed back from 2-0 down to beat Everton, 3-2, for their third win in four matches, so it’s clear why public confidence is high.

Saturday’s other matchup is nearly a toss-up with Burnley (+150) and Leicester City (+200) both offered at better odds than the draw (+235).

After picking up points in eight consecutive EPL matches, Burnley have dropped three straight and are in supreme danger of the relegation zone. Leicester City are safe but will be hoping to finish in the top-ten to build for next season under new manager Brendan Rodgers.

No significant wagers have shifted the lines yet, but the public is heavy on the Foxes to win on the road.

The Clarets have suffered the second-most multi-goal defeats (13) and conceded the second-most goals (57) this season, two stats that don’t inspire confidence in bettors.

The chalk won eight of 10 matches last weekend with no underdog victories and two draws: Sassuolo-Napoli (+300) and Fiorentina-Lazio (+230).

Juventus crushed Udinese, 4-1, in Serie A action and then went on to beat Atletico Madrid, 3-0, to reach the Champions League quarterfinals. Juve will shortly seal their eighth consecutive domestic title, but their ultimate goal is to finally win the Champions League.

In other big news, manager Claudio Ranieri took over Roma and won his first game in charge, 2-1, despite a late red card.

This weekend’s marquee match-up is the Milan Derby on Sunday afternoon with AC Milan hosting Inter Milan. The home side has the very slight edge at +160 odds though there’s been minimal line movement so far.

Since Inter Milan have to play Frankfurt in the Europa League Thursday, there’s a good chance odds eventually move toward AC Milan before kickoff.

Lines that have shifted the most this weekend have been Lazio (-260 to -275), Sassuolo (+165 to +150) and the SPAL-Roma Draw (+265 to +250).

It’s rare to see high totals in Serie A, but four over/unders are listed at 3 goals for this weekend due to big favorites.

zech Republic: Slavia Prague recently won, 4-0, to move six points clear of Viktoria Plzen, who suffered an embarrassing 4-0 loss over the weekend.

Slavia Prague are heavy -400 favorites at Prigram on Sunday while Viktoria Plzen are small -110 faves at Teplice on Friday.

Denmark Superliga: Copenhagen’s lead is down to one point over Midjtylland after drawing 2-2 last weekend. Both clubs are listed above -300 to win at home on Sunday and all the early line movement has shifted toward each of them.

France Ligue 1: PSG are the runaway winners in Ligue 1, but they just bowed out of the Champions League as -4000 favorites vs. Manchester United. Despite dealing with some injuries the last couple months, this will be deemed a failed season for the Parisian club.

Greece Super League: PAOK maintained their seven-point lead over Olympiakos after both clubs won by three-goal margins last weekend. PAOK (-245) and Olympiakos (-125) are each road favorites Saturday/Sunday against top-seven clubs.

Netherlands Eredivisie: Ajax have reeled off two straight wins to move within two points of league-leaders PSV. They also have the Champions League quarterfinals to worry about after dethroning Real Madrid in dramatic fashion.

On Sunday, Ajax and PSV are each listed above -170 to pick up road victories and public bettors will be all over them.

Portugal Primeira Liga: Benfica slipped up at home last weekend by drawing 2-2 with Belenenses, and are now tied atop the league with FC Porto.

The edge this weekend is clearly pointed toward Porto since they’re -625 home favorites while Benfica travel to Moreirense at -200 odds.

397972820
SOC Borussia Dortmund -104

glta

Good day today.

West Ham -152 to win 2 units...Amazing comeback...Winner

To win one unit each:
Norwich City -.5, -1 -139 (Eng Champ)...W,P
Sheffield Wed +104 (Eng Champ)...W
Accrington +107 (Eng1)..postponed
Forest Green -116 (Eng2)..l
MK Dons -.5,-1 -119 (Eng2)...l

Record now 33-30 (+3.82)

Parlays: 1-1 today

Norwich -173 (Eng Champ)..w
Luton -301 (Eng1)..l
Sunderland -200 (Eng1)..w
Bury -182 (Eng2)..postponed
1 to win 3.8

West Ham -151..w
Norwich -171....w
Sheffield Wed +104...w
1 to win 4.4..Winner

Parlay record now 9-21 (+20.9)