This week, the biggest ATP and WTA tournaments are in Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart.

Arthur Cazaux vs. Matteo Arnaldi – Barcelona

We haven’t seen Cazaux play in just about a month, but Arnaldi didn’t look particularly sharp in a 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 loss to Sumit Nagal in Monte Carlo. Now, the Italian has to go and face a player that isn’t all that different from Nagal, with both being aggressive baseliners with all-court games. But Cazaux happens to have more firepower from the baseline. He also has a very dangerous serve and that should give him a slight leg up on Arnaldi here. One of the things that makes Arnaldi so good is his ability to stay solid. He is really sturdy from both wings and he forces a lot of mistakes out of his opponents. He also has the ability to really dial things up with his forehand. But the slow clay courts in Barcelona will make it hard for Arnaldi to end points. Cazaux likely won’t have the same problem. The court speed should also help Cazaux get to Arnaldi’s serve.

Bet: Cazaux +1.5 Sets (-143 – 1.5 units) & Cazaux ML (+180 – 0.5 units)

Daniel Altmaier vs. Alexei Popyrin – Barcelona

The last time these two met was last August, when Popryin earned a 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4 win in Cincinnati. That was a tightly contested match that could have gone either way, and it was played on a hard court. That’s Popyrin’s favorite surface. Well, this match will be played on clay, which is Altmaier’s favorite surface. So, in a meeting between two players with big serves, it’s hard to see this being anything but a close match. And breaks of serve could come at a premium here. But Altmaier should be a little more trustworthy to come through in big moments on clay. And even if he doesn’t, it’s hard to see this being anything other than a 7-6, 6-4 win for Popyrin, if it even ends in straight sets. But I think Altmaier will get on the board. And I also think he’s a live ‘dog here.

Bet: Altmaier +3.5 Games (-154 – 1.5 units)

Alexandre Muller vs. Albert Ramos Vinolas – Barcelona

I hate going against an established clay-court player like Ramos Vinolas, especially with the Spaniard playing in front of his home crowd. But age is clearly catching up to the 36-year-old, who just suffered a bad loss to Mikhail Kukushkin in the quarterfinals of the Madrid qualifiers. Ramos Vinolas has now lost four of his last six matches, and seeing him struggle to find form at the lower levels is enough to make me fade him. Muller is also capable of grinding away from the baseline and forcing longer rallies against his older opponent. That should lead to quite a few misses from Ramos Vinolas, who might try to overhit to end rallies faster. And Muller can also pick and choose his spots to be aggressive. But overall, he’ll be in better shape than his opponent here. As long as he can tune out the crowd, Muller should win this match.

Bet: Muller ML (-110 – 1.5 units)

ATP Barcelona Futures
Stefanos Tsitsipas To Win (+500)
Casper Ruud To Win (+550)

With Carlos Alcaraz out of the field after having withdrawn with the same arm injury that forced him out of action in Monte Carlo, I wouldn’t be shocked if we get a rematch between Tsitsipas and Ruud in the final. I know Rafael Nadal is on Tsitsipas’ side of the draw, but I don’t have much faith in the Spaniard performing at a high level in his first tournament back. And Tsitsipas has looked tremendous since getting back on the dirt. Meanwhile, Ruud continues to secure good results on clay and I think his side of the draw is manageable. He likely won’t be tested much until a semi-final encounter with Andrey Rublev, Cameron Norrie or Karen Khachanov.

I took Muller!!

Jaume Munar vs. Yoshihito Nishioka – Barcelona
Rafael Nadal vs. Flavio Cobolli – Barcelona

Munar and Nadal are both massive favorites, parlaying them together to get a decent price. Munar is coming off a tough loss to Roman Safiullin in Monte Carlo, but he has still won three of his last five matches on clay. And Munar has 62 career wins on the surface. That’s 21 more victories on clay than the amount of matches Nishioka has played on the surface. With that in mind, Munar will have a massive advantage when it comes to experience. And he’s going to be a tough matchup for Nishioka. The Japanese player likes to prolong rallies and outwork his opponents. But Munar is capable of getting everything back. And the Spaniard’s ability to hit with heavy topspin should give Nishioka some problems. Nishioka is also a lousy server, so Munar should have success as a returner.

As for Nadal, the only thing I’m worried about is the Spaniard getting through this match healthy. If he does, he should have no problems with Cobolli. Nadal earned a 6-1 win over Andrey Rublev in a practice set over the weekend, and he can beat 95% of the players on tour on clay when he’s at 75% health. So, it’s hard to picture a scenario in which Cobolli knocks him off. Even if Nadal isn’t moving as well as we’re used to, he has the power required to move Cobolli all around the court. And I trust Nadal to finish points when he has Cobolli in a compromised position. Nadal is also the better server and returner here. Also, if Nadal doesn’t end up finishing this match, this portion of the bet would just be voided.

PARLAY: Munar ML/Nadal ML (-165 – 1.5 units)

Daniel Altmaier vs. Alexei Popyrin – Barcelona

The last time these two met was last August, when Popryin earned a 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4 win in Cincinnati. That was a tightly contested match that could have gone either way, and it was played on a hard court. That’s Popyrin’s favorite surface. Well, this match will be played on clay, which is Altmaier’s favorite surface. So, in a meeting between two players with big serves, it’s hard to see this being anything but a close match. And breaks of serve could come at a premium here. But Altmaier should be a little more trustworthy to come through in big moments on clay. And even if he doesn’t, it’s hard to see this being anything other than a 7-6, 6-4 win for Popyrin, if it even ends in straight sets. But I think Altmaier will get on the board. And I also think he’s a live ‘dog here.

Bet: Altmaier +3.5 Games (-154 – 1.5 units)

Ivan Gakhov vs. Botic Van De Zandschulp – Munich

This is going to be a pretty interesting match. While people might not know much about Gakhov, the lefty has played 118 clay-court matches at the Challenger level over the last 52 weeks. That’s just a ton of clay-court tennis. And he won both of his qualifying matches in straight sets. So, he’s experienced on the surface and playing good tennis coming into this match. Meanwhile, Van De Zandschulp has only played 10 clay-court matches over the last 52 weeks. And Van De Zandschulp has lost two of his last three clay-court matches, with both of the losses coming in straight sets.

There’s just a significant gap in experience on this surface, and Gakhov has a style of play that should make it difficult for Van De Zandschulp to win easily. Gakhov has a powerful serve and plays a big, aggressive game from the baseline. So, he won’t back down from Van De Zandschulp, and he likely won’t get broken easily. That should help Gakhov keep things close enough to cover a 4.5-game spread. On top of that, Van De Zandschulp is just 11-15 against left-handed players in his career. So, he might take a while to get comfortable in this match.

Bet: Gakhov +4.5 Games (-133)

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Ons Jabeur – Stuttgart

It’s only a matter of time before Jabeur finds her form again, but she’s a player to fade until she does. The world No. 9 has lost each of her last five matches, and she’s just 2-6 since the start of 2024. Jabeur’s hold percentage is down at 60.0% this year. That number was up at 67.5% or higher in each of the last four years. Jabeur’s break percentage is also 29.1%, despite being at least 38.7% in each of the last four years. She’s just not serving or returning at a high enough level to beat solid opponents, and she has lost a bit of the magic that made her such a good baseline player. With that in mind, I’m rolling with Alexandrova to beat her. Alexandrova is actually 5-2 in the seven full matches these two have played. And Alexandrova is also just 12-9 on the season, so these two are just heading in opposite directions.

Bet: Alexandrova ML (-125)

Rafael Nadal vs. Alex De Minaur – Barcelona

I know Nadal is coming off a straight-set win, but that was against Flavio Cobolli. This meeting with De Minaur will be a heck of a lot tougher. De Minaur is one of the most physical players on tour, as he gets everything back in play and forces you to come up with something extra in order to beat him. Well, Nadal hasn’t been tested like this in quite some time. So, I’m backing the Australian. And I’m a little worried about what a lengthy match would mean for Nadal, so hopefully this isn’t a very tight three setter.

Nadal also got himself into some trouble with his serve against Cobolli. If he does that against De Minaur, it’ll be curtains for the greatest clay-court player of all time. De Minaur has the second-highest break percentage (29.0%) on tour over the last 52 weeks.

Bet: De Minaur ML (+100 – 1.5 units)

Two plays I plucked from here this week and two wins!!!! EXCELLENTE'

Thiago Seyboth Wild vs. Mariano Navone – Bucharest

Seyboth Wild beat Navone when the two met in Buenos Aires last year, but the Argentinean had won the two previous meetings between them — at the same tournament. Both of these players are at their best on clay, so this should be a fun match to watch. But it’s hard to ignore that Navone hasn’t played a match off the dirt since the Australian Open. Navone has been training on clay and playing nothing but clay-court tournaments, and he has now played 22 clay-court matches in 2024. Meanwhile, Seyboth Wild just returned to the dirt after having played the Sunshine Double on hard courts. And he looked a little sluggish in a three-set win over Luca Nardi in his first match here.

Navone’s edge in clay-court reps could make all the difference in the world here. Seyboth Wild has more weapons than his opponent, but he will have a small margin for error against Navone here. Navone is a good defensive player and knows how to construct points, so he can extract a lot of mistakes out of Seyboth Wild’s racquet. That’s ultimately why I give a small edge to Navone. I trust him to make more balls and dial up the aggression when the moment is right. Navone is also a better returner than Seyboth Wild, so he should have more opportunities to break.

Bet: Navone ML (-111)

Botic Van De Zandschulp vs. Jan-Lennard Struff – Munich

Van De Zandschulp is coming off a good win over Ivan Gakhov, but that was an absolute battle. And I’m expecting nothing less when he takes on Struff. Before running into Jannik Sinner in Monte Carlo, Struff earned wins over Sebastian Baez and Borna Coric. Those are two very good baseline players, which shows that Struff is doing more than just serving. He might have a booming first serve, but his baseline game is holding up nicely. That will make him a lot more competitive than he usually is on clay. Meanwhile, Van De Zandschulp is a solid clay-court player, as he is now 19-16 on the dirt at the ATP level. So, I don’t see him going down without a fight, if he goes down at all.

Overall, this should be a match in which both players hold with relative ease. So, the games in this match should start to add up pretty fast. That’s why I’m playing the Over on the game total and not worrying about who ends up winning. Not only should there be two lengthy sets to open this match, but there’s a good shot we get three sets.

Bet: Over 21.5 Games (-156 – 1.5 units)

Marta Kostyuk vs. Qinwen Zheng – Stuttgart

Zheng’s 11-4 record on clay over the last 52 weeks gives her the sixth-highest clay-court winning percentage on tour in that span. However, Zheng has been up and down since making the Australian Open final in January. And while she did look good in a 6-2, 6-3 win over Sorana Cirstea in her first match here, Kostyuk will be a difficult opponent for her. Kostyuk didn’t play for over a month after losing to Iga Swiatek in Indian Wells, but she picked up right where she left off. Kostyuk earned a 6-3, 6-7 (4), 6-4 win over Laura Siegemund in her first match here. That was a good win for Kostyuk, as Siegemund beat Beatriz Haddad Maia on clay last week. The Ukrainian is now an impressive 16-6 since the start of the 2024 season. She’s playing the best tennis of her career and is capable of beating pretty much anyone when she’s on her game.

One thing thing Zheng is used to having over opponents is a significant edge in power. But Kostyuk is fully capable of going blow for blow with her from the baseline. Both of these players hit extremely hard, and they both go for winners regularly. So, this is a match in which we’ll see a ton of haymakers, and I tend to believe that Kostyuk will have a real shot at winning. After all, Kostyuk’s break percentage is up at 42.9% this year. And returning is even easier on clay. So, if Zheng isn’t making a lot of first serves, she’ll be in real trouble here. Kostyuk is also a bit more creative from the baseline, and she’s also a better defender than Zheng.

These two also played a three-set match in Montreal last year, with Zheng earning a 6-2, 1-6, 6-3 win over Kostyuk. That result would have been good for a cover on 4.5 games for Kostyuk, and that match was played way before the Ukrainian found this impressive 2024 level. That said, I like Kostyuk to keep things close here. And I’m sprinkling the moneyline, as I have been more impressed with Kostyuk than Zheng recently.

Bet: Kostyuk +4.5 Games (-138 – 1.5 units) & Kostyuk ML (+210 – 0.5 units)

Thiago Seyboth Wild vs. Mariano Navone – Bucharest

Seyboth Wild beat Navone when the two met in Buenos Aires last year, but the Argentinean had won the two previous meetings between them — at the same tournament. Both of these players are at their best on clay, so this should be a fun match to watch. But it’s hard to ignore that Navone hasn’t played a match off the dirt since the Australian Open. Navone has been training on clay and playing nothing but clay-court tournaments, and he has now played 22 clay-court matches in 2024. Meanwhile, Seyboth Wild just returned to the dirt after having played the Sunshine Double on hard courts. And he looked a little sluggish in a three-set win over Luca Nardi in his first match here.

Navone’s edge in clay-court reps could make all the difference in the world here. Seyboth Wild has more weapons than his opponent, but he will have a small margin for error against Navone here. Navone is a good defensive player and knows how to construct points, so he can extract a lot of mistakes out of Seyboth Wild’s racquet. That’s ultimately why I give a small edge to Navone. I trust him to make more balls and dial up the aggression when the moment is right. Navone is also a better returner than Seyboth Wild, so he should have more opportunities to break.

Bet: Navone ML (-111)

NOTE: This match was supposed to be played on Thursday, but it got pushed back and is now scheduled for 5:00 am ET on Friday.

Marc-Andrea Huesler vs. Holger Rune – Munich

Huesler has only played four ATP-level matches in 2024, at least in the main draw. The 27-year-old is also just 6-16 on clay in his ATP career. That 27.3% winning percentage is the worst he has on any of the three surfaces, although he has played only seven tour-level matches on grass. Either way, we’re talking about a player that lacks experience against the best players in the world, and he has already played four matches in Munich this week. So, fatigue could be a factor when he takes on Rune, who is far more talented to begin with.

Huesler has actually earned wins over Rune before, as he beat him on clay in Bastad in 2022 and got him again on hard courts in Sofia later in the year. But Rune beat him 7-6 (2), 6-2 in their most recent meeting, which took place in Montpellier last February. Rune is no longer going to let this type of matchup sneak up on him. And the 20-year-old is a fantastic clay-court player, and he’s only getting better with Patrick Mouratoglou along for the ride. Mouratoglou has his faults as a coach, but he has seen and done everything. His presence will continue to make Rune sharper.

Rune also has a hold percentage of 82.0% and break percentage of 25.0% on clay over the last 52 weeks. In that same span, Huesler’s hold percentage is 71.9% and his break percentage is 13.9% on the surface. That’s a significant edge for Rune in two of the most important areas of the game, and the youngster also has a big advantage from the baseline. So, as long as Rune is dialed in mentally, he should win this match easily.

Bet: Rune -1.5 Sets (-139)

Magda Linette vs. Arantxa Rus – Rouen

I’m not going to put a lot on a match like this, but I do think the wrong player is favored here. Rus did beat Linette in their only other WTA-level meeting, but that was a hard-court match at the 2020 Australian Open. That was a very, very long time ago, so it’s hard to take anything from it.

Rus did earn a win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova last round, so that might be why people are high on her right now. But the Russian got sloppy in that match and gift-wrapped Rus a victory. Things won’t be as easy against Linette. Whereas Pavlyuchenkova has raw power from the baseline and can occasionally be erratic with her groundstrokes, Linette makes her matches ugly. She utilizes a lot of slice to get her opponents out of position, and then she hits to the open court. So, Linette isn’t likely to rack up unforced errors or do anything to harm herself here. Instead, she’ll try and force some mistakes out of Rus, who can be a little overaggressive at times.

Rus is also due for some regression as a server here. Her first-serve percentage has been below 70.0% in each of the last two seasons, but she has made at least 72.8% of her first serves in each of her last two matches. Look for that number to come down a bit against Linette. But even if it doesn’t, Linette is a really good returner. She’s going to find a way to get balls back and force Rus to win in the mud.

Bet: Linette ML (+102)