When a team comes home after getting the split on the road they did what they were supposed to do. So does that carry into game 3 at home ? What about that visiting team, they were the fave considering they had home ice advantage.
When a team goes on the road for game 3 (Pens/Habs) after splitting at home, has a 53.8% chance of winning game 3. So the Pens being -174 faves are wayyyy out of whack. Also the Sens are an overlay, but not as bad. Now of course they are the better team, so the Pens should be favored, the Habs and Sens are really a coin flip. So the Habs getting +121 is good value. But you know anything is possible. But history tells us this is a huge overlay.
Hawks at Wild
How about when a team goes on the road after winning the first two at home. You would think that team down 0-2 will put together a great 3rd game to not go down 0-3. Well you would be correct.
In the preliminary round the road team that is up 2-0 only has a winning percentage of 47.8%. So the Wild getting +146 at home is massive.
Vancouver at Sharks
How about a team that takes the first two games on the road. Surely they should school the visiting team for a 3-0 lead ?? Right ?? Not at all. The home team coming home after sweeping on the road only has a 34.6% chance of winning game 3 at home. Yes that is correct, but I gotta tell you this is based off a very small sample of 26 games. Being that it is just so rare to occur. So the Nucks getting +130 is very good indeed.
So going by history you should take all the dogs today. Wow, that sounds like a strategy after my own heart.