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doubled1511
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from espn

Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Chiefs -9

Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Raiders




Public perception: The public is split on this game (51 percent on the Raiders at ESPN PickCenter as of this writing on early Friday morning), as the Chiefs have gained supporters every week (a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record will do that) while the Raiders have also been getting more popular with the emergence of quarterback Terrelle Pryor.

Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were all over the Chiefs in over/under win totals and early this season, but that support is starting to cool as their odds are getting a bit inflated. Add to that the fact that the sharps are also taking notice of Pryor's play and we're likely to see them join the public on the Oakland side here.

Tuley's Take: I lean to the Raiders, too, but the Chiefs' defense really has impressed me. That's keeping me from pulling the trigger, as I see this game as being close to the spread, but I'm not sure the Raiders can stop the Chiefs' running game in crunch time, nor be able to score late if needing to get the back-door cover. Basically, there are underdogs I feel more confident about this week.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders).







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Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: Eagles -1.5

Public consensus pick: 80 percent picked Eagles




Public perception: The public is loading up on the Eagles, not even waiting to see if Michael Vick will be cleared to play or if Nick Foles will get the start. But that's because there's no one rushing to support Mike Glennon, who did fine in his debut two weeks ago against the Cardinals but then threw a key interception that led to Arizona's upset win.

Wiseguys' view: This is usually a spot, with a 1.5-point home underdog that sharps would be looking to tease them over a touchdown, but the Bucs aren't looking that worthy of even that lukewarm support. The highlight of their season so far has been covering as 3-point underdogs in their 16-14 Week 2 loss to the Saints.

Tuley's Take: I'm not going to lay the point(s), but I do think the Eagles are clearly the right side. See the "Streak for the Cash" section at the bottom.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Eagles).





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Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Packers -3

Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Packers




Public perception: The public is almost always on the Packers, so we expected to see this with the line under a field goal. The public still doesn't think the Ravens are as good as they were on their Super Bowl run last year.

Wiseguys' view: A few offshores opened at 3.5, but those didn't last long. Wiseguys were on the Packers last week even before Calvin Johnson was declared out for the Lions and the line went from Pack minus-7 to minus-10, but they're on the Ravens here. Handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbook.com also uncovers that the Ravens, with an already strong home-field advantage, are 5-0 ATS at home under coach John Harbaugh in games off a SU underdog win, the role they find themselves in Sunday.

Tuley's Take: The Packers also aren't as strong on the road (having already lost to the 49ers and Bengals), and I wasn't as impressed with the Packers' 22-9 win over the injury-ravaged Lions. The Packers' newfound running game faces a tough test in the Ravens' defense, and I think Baltimore makes a statement here that it's back in contention again.

The pick: Ravens.





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Matchup: Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Lions -2.5

Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Lions




Public perception: The public is on the Lions so far, though it's probably more because they're still not ready to jump on the Browns' bandwagon even though they've won three straight games after the Trent Richardson trade was supposed to signal them giving up on the season. The public might jump on board if it looks like Calvin Johnson, listed as a game-time decision as of this writing, looks like he won't play.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps have taken away a lot of the Browns plus-3 out there, and that'll look like an even better bet if Johnson is out. Regardless, Cleveland has the much stronger defense at this point, and wiseguys like getting points with the better defense.

Tuley's Take: I prefer the Cleveland side, but I missed out on the plus-3, so I'm likely to sit this one out unless somehow the public pushes this line back to a field goal. It's a case where I would prefer a less-than-100 percent Johnson to play so I can get that key half-point.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns).





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Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Public consensus pick: 77 percent picked Vikings




Public perception: The public usually has a penchant for backing teams off a bye, feeling they'll come back healthy and focused, even though such teams are usually around .500 ATS (and the trend is off to a 1-1 start this season). Of course, the Panthers' 22-9 loss to the Cardinals after their bye week certainly didn't inspire confidence in bettors.

Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly waiting to see if they can get the Panthers plus-3, though they will probably also be a popular teaser play.

Tuley's Take: I'll also wait for plus-3, but I like the Panthers enough to take them if it stays 2.5. Despite being just 1-3 (and their only win being over the Giants), the defense has impressed me, as has its No. 3 in average yards (301.5) allowed per game. It looks like Matt Cassel will start again even with Christian Ponder cleared to play (and Josh Freeman waiting in the wings), but that doesn't scare me off my position as the Vikings' defense (allowing 430.8 yards per game) should help Cam Newton and the Panthers get back on track.

The pick: Panthers.





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Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -7.5

Public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Texans




Public perception: It doesn't look like the public is giving the Rams much respect for their win/cover over the Jaguars (and no one is blaming them). So even though Matt Schaub has turned into a national punchline by throwing a pick-six in four straight games, the public is willing to back the Texans here.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps also were behind the move to push this line higher than its opener of Texans minus-7, but they're backing off now with the hook, though they will surely be another popular teaser play.

Tuley's Take: The Texans have certainly let down a lot of bettors, as they're 0-5 ATS with non-covering wins over the Chargers and Titans the first two weeks and then three SU losses. However, they still have a lot of talent and the No. 1 defense in the league (260.2 yards per game). Still, I can't make a case for the Rams, who covered for the first time last Sunday while barely putting away the Jaguars.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans, especially if your pool has a contest line of 6.5).





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Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets

Spread: Jets -2.5

Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Jets




Public perception: The public is starting to come around on the Jets, with their No. 2-ranked defense and Geno Smith looking more and more like the real deal. Even the Steelers coming off their bye week hasn't been enough for the previously strong public team to garner much support, which isn't surprising for a 0-4 SU and ATS team.

Wiseguys' view: This was Steelers minus-2 last week in the advance line at the LVH SuperBook, and several books still had the Steelers favored when betting opened later Sunday. However the Jets' 30-28 upset of the Falcons on Monday night caused the switch in favorites.

Tuley's Take: The Jets have a bigger test in next week's rematch with the Patriots, but if they want to be considered serious playoff contenders, this is the type of game they have to win. I haven't seen anything from the Steelers that indicates the bye week will help them turn things around.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets).





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Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bengals -7

Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Bengals




Public perception: The public is solidly on the Bengals, but that's obviously partly because they're trying to figure out who this Thaddeus Lewis guy is who's starting at quarterback for the Bills.

Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game -- before Buffalo starter quarterback E.J. Manuel was hurt again in the Thursday night game against the Browns -- was just Bengals minus-3.5. Now there's been a significant adjustment. Wiseguys would normally like a big road dog like this, but likely to take a pass with the untested Lewis (who spent training camp with the Lions before being traded to the Browns and added to their practice squad).

Tuley's Take: A lot of trends favor the Bills here (home dogs 16-10 ATS so far this year; teams with 10 days rest coming off of Thursday games are 7-1 ATS), so while I'm leery of backing Lewis, I think his mobility fits the offense similar to Manuel as opposed to the other backup, Jeff Tuel. Besides, this is just as much a bet against the Bengals at the inflated price. Sure, the Bengals beat the Patriots (aided by a rainstorm) last week at home, but their last road game was lackluster, as they also lost to the Browns. They will be quite content to grind out a win here, which is fine with me as long as it's under a touchdown.

The pick: Bills.





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Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -13.5

Public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Seahawks




Public perception: Here's the first of three straight double-digit spreads with the public on the favorites in each case despite laying big points. The Seahawks were 8-0 SU and ATS at home last season and are off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start this year with blowouts of the 49ers and Jaguars.

Wiseguys' view: Jake Locker is out 4-6 weeks, but sharp bettors are expected to jump on the Titans if and when this line gets to 14.

Tuley's Take: The Titans lost to the Chiefs last week, but they're still one of the surprise teams at 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. I've been on the Seahawks' home-field advantage for longer than most, but I think we could be seeing where it's been an overadjustment in the line.

The pick: Titans.





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Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos minus-27

Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Broncos




Public perception: The general public is still inclined to back the Broncos at any number (despite them not covering against the closing line in two of their past three games) and fading the Jaguars at any number.

Wiseguys' view: This line opened to much fanfare as high as 28, and it's been all sharp money that has dropped it to a consensus 27 in Vegas as of this writing early Friday morning. It's been as low as 26 at some offshore books. Wiseguys also know that 20-point NFL underdogs are gold as they've covered the last six times a line has entered this rarified air.

Tuley's Take: We could go on and on about the historical data on games in this spread range (and we did in our ESPN Insider "Opening Line" column on Monday, and Chad Millman did as well on his blogs and podcast this week), but I also feel this line is inflated on the merits of the teams.

In our most recent Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll, albeit from Sept. 24, the difference in our power rankings on these two teams was 17 points. I've upgraded the Jaguars two points since then, so even with Denver's home-field advantage, I feel this line should be closer to the minus-19.5 that Seattle had against the Jags two weeks ago. Now, the Seahawks covered that number, but Jacksonville has since added receiver Justin Blackmon back from suspension, and he could have a game like fellow Oklahoma State receiver Dez Bryant had against the Broncos' secondary last week. But the biggest reason to take the points is just like those other previous 20-point favorites: They're content to get out with a win (and Don Shula would certainly agree with that).

The pick: Jaguars.

Old Post 10-13-13 04:15 PM
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Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Spread: 49ers -11

Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked 49ers




Public perception: The 49ers are back with back-to-back blowout wins over the Rams and Texans, so the public is back on them as well.

Wiseguys' view: There are still some doubters in the wiseguy community about the quality of those past two wins by San Francisco. The routs were just as much a result of the ineptitude of the Rams and Texans as they were about the 49ers forcing them into mistakes.

Tuley's Take: Since I lost with them in Week 3 against the Saints, the Cardinals have come through for me in back-to-back weeks with upset wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers. Now, this is a step back up in class, but I'm encouraged by the defense, which was already strong and carrying this team. They now add unheralded linebacker Darryl Washington back from suspension. Both teams are 3-2 and I see this is a defensive battle where points will be at a premium, even in this wide-open offensive era.

The pick: Cardinals.



Matchup: New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots

Spread: Patriots -2.5

Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Saints




Public perception: As of late Thursday night, this is the only underdog that the public is solidly behind. That's understandable with the Saints off to a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS start, plus the (usually also very public) Patriots coming off a loss.

Wiseguys' view: There used to be a well-used trend about Bill Belichick winning and covering off a loss, but it's cooled down and wiseguys are not as afraid to fade the Patriots at home either. As it is, there's a split among sharps on this game, with some lining up on each side. Some think the Saints are for real and the Patriots are down, but others think the potential return of tight end Rob Gronkowski could cure the Pats' offensive woes (averaging just 19 points a game).

Tuley's Take: I'm in the camp that thinks the Patriots are starting to get a little underrated. I'm also still not totally convinced that the Saints' new and improved defense can keep up its hot start.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).




Matchup: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -5.5

Public consensus pick: 79 percent picked Cowboys



Public perception: The Cowboys certainly gained a lot of respect with the spread-covering 51-48 loss to the Broncos. The Redskins went into their bye off a 24-14 victory over the Raiders, but it wasn't impressive enough to get the public's support here. Wiseguys' view: The sharps have joined the public is pushing this line up from its opener of Cowboys minus-4.5 at the LVH SuperBook and minus-5 offshore, and it looks like it'll get pushed to 6.

Tuley's Take: As I've said before, while most of the attention has been on how Robert Griffin III has performed, the thing that has been exposed the most has been the Washington defense (allowing a league-worst 440.5 yards per game). I can't back a dog with a defense that bad.

The pick: Pass (pool play: Cowboys).



Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

Spread: Colts -1.5

Public consensus pick: 84 percent picked Colts




Public perception: Just like last season, the Indy bandwagon is filling up with the Colts winning three straight, including upsets of the 49ers and Seahawks. The Chargers' 27-17 loss to the Raiders was also less than inspiring.

Wiseguys' view: A lot of sharps thought the Colts would regress from last season since they were outgained in a lot of their games and not considered to be as good as their 11-5 record. They looked right, as the Colts won but did not cover in their opener against the Raiders. They then lost to the Dolphins, but now these last three wins have them rethinking their position.

Tuley's Take: I'm not willing to give up on the Chargers yet. Yes, the loss at Oakland was disappointing (though I only had them in contests as the favorite), but they're still 3-1-1 ATS and they're 2-0 ATS at home. Their win over the Cowboys looks better after the latter's 51-48 loss to the Broncos. Their No. 5-ranked offense should come with their best effort at home and before the national TV audience on the "Monday Night" stage.

The pick: Chargers.

Old Post 10-13-13 04:18 PM
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chad millman's nfl gambling opus2

By Wednesday afternoon the opening line of Broncos minus-28 had been bet down, slightly, to minus-26.5 at many sports books. Those were professional bettors moving the number, and the expectation is that any bet of substance is going to be on Jacksonville. As Bob Scucci, the bookmaker at The Orleans in Vegas told me, "Think about laying the most points anyone has ever laid, no one is going to do that."

Historically speaking, they shouldn't. Bruce Marshall from The Gold Sheet sent me this roundup of the biggest spreads in NFL history:




1966: Baltimore (-28) vs. Atlanta (Final score: Baltimore 19, Atlanta 7)
1966: Green Bay (-27) vs. Atlanta (Final score: Green Bay 56, Atlanta 3)
1966: Oakland (-26.5) vs. Miami (Final score: Oakland 31, Miami 17)
1966: San Diego (-26) vs. Miami (Final score: San Diego 44, Miami 10)
1966: Cleveland (-26) vs. NY Giants (Final score: Cleveland 49, NYG 40)
1968: Oakland (-26) vs. Buffalo (Final score: Oakland 13, Buffalo 10)
1976: Pittsburgh (-27) vs. Tampa Bay (Final score: Pittsburgh 42, Tampa Bay 0)

For the record, that makes the 'dogs 4-3 ATS. And, wow, did 1966 have some really crappy football teams. If you're looking for more recent and relevant comparison, consider the 2007 New England Patriots. Sure, that group went undefeated in the regular season, but over the last 11 games of the season they were 2-9 against the spread, including three ATS losses when they were favorites of 20-plus points.

Another cool nugget Marshall sent along was his list of the greatest outright upsets in NFL history:

1968: Denver (+22) vs. NY Jets (Final score: Denver 21, NYJ 13)
1967: Minnesota (+20) vs. Green Bay (Final score: Minnesota 10, Green Bay 7)
1968: Buffalo (+20) vs. NY Jets (Final score: Buffalo 37, NYJ 35)
1974: San Diego (+20) vs. Cincinnati (Final score: San Diego 20, Cincinnati 17)

Boy, the Jets sure did go in the tank a couple of times in 1968. But I'm sure there is nothing fishy about it. Forget head injuries, we should put the Fainaru brothers on that, stat.

All kidding aside (seriously, I'm only kidding), the Broncos aren't going to lose this game. And serious bettors aren't going to put their hard-won money on them to cover. But the public will. They will be without fear of a late-game garbage touchdown or backup Broncos playing the entire second half. And that's good. Because it means the ratings for what may be the least interesting matchup on an NFL field this season will be higher in the fourth quarter than for any game that actually matters.

Old Post 10-13-13 04:22 PM
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Now, onto the rest of the Opus II and who the wiseguys love, who they hate and plenty of other stuff to lose you money. I know it will be the best gambling column sequel you read all year!

Teams wiseguys will love over the next month

New England Patriots
Oh, how times change. The last time the Pats were undervalued Tom Brady dated sorority girls and Bill Belichick in a hoodie indicated a lack of interest on his part, not an iconic fashion statement. Over the past decade and a half this team has become as public as any of the teams that are synonymous with point-spread inflation (Pittsburgh, Dallas and Green Bay). But over the past month, as they integrated new receivers into the lineup, bettors have spent a lot of time walking away from the Pats. And bookmakers adjusted, deflating the prices on Pats games. Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola may be returning to the lineup, but public bettors only know what they've seen. And they haven't liked it much, as evidenced by the fact the Pats' line has been shrinking toward the Saints in their game at Foxborough this weekend. A win against the Saints may change this outlook, but a loss, especially a close one as they incorporate Gronk into the game plan, will render some value later on.


Carolina Panthers
What a challenge these Panthers are, like a 6-year-old boy: So much unfocused energy and just terrible decision-making. Statistically, they have the best defense in the league. More important, as far as wiseguys are concerned, they have allowed the second-fewest first downs, fourth-fewest third downs and the third-fewest points. Professional bettors can usually live off of those stats. And yet, Carolina has blown not just cover opportunities but actual games. But they have the defensive foundation to rebound and, let's look ahead: Over the next four weeks they have Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Fans will see stinkers. Bettors will see opportunity. Or they will have nightmares about Ron Rivera.


Oakland Raiders
See, um, you know what's funny is, well … just a few weeks ago I wrote the Raiders were one of the teams wiseguys hated. And now I'm saying something else. That is hilarious! But the truth is, Vegas was wrong. Terrelle Pryor is good in a way no one anticipated: He's accurate, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes, he keeps the chains moving with his feet and he has surprised as a playmaker. There is no reason to believe in the Raiders -- their offense and defense both rank in the bottom half of the league. But they have yet to be blown out, even against the Broncos. This weekend against Kansas City will be a good barometer of whether the Raiders stay on this list, or if they get dropped back to the other one.

Old Post 10-13-13 04:24 PM
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The public wants what it wants
After the Week 4 games, I sent out a tweet asking readers what kind of gambling knowledge I could drop based on the season so far. The most asked question: Is the public getting smarter? Certainly, it seems that way. Think about all the ways in which you, the fine degenerates working on Wall Street or living off your parents in the frat or looking for ways to maximize the Excel spreadsheet experience you've gained at biz school, have grown in the past few years. Access to information has never been better. There is more data available to parse and snip and use to find angles. There are more idiots like me telling you who the sharps are on and why. All that info overload must have a direct impact on your betting skills and, at the least, an indirect impact on the line, right?

After the Week 4 games, this notion became especially acute. High-profile favorites in what professional bettors like to call "good spots" not to cover actually beat the number handily. The 49ers beat the Rams by three touchdowns on "Thursday Night Football." The Chiefs beat up on the Giants in a game everyone thought New York had to win. The Colts destroyed Jacksonville despite all the "value" on Jacksonville. The Titans destroyed the Jets, and the Broncos destroyed the Eagles.

For the love of algorithms, systems and right sides, what in the name of Billy Walters is going on here? Well, it turns out, other than that Week 4 surprise, the season has pretty much been business as usual.

I asked the fellas at sportsinsights.com, which aggregates betting action from several different high-profile offshore sports books, to give me the data on how well betting against the public has done in 2013. They quantify that scenario as games in which at least 65 percent of the action is on one side (and 35 percent is on the other, in case you need help with that). And, through five weeks, teams getting just 35 percent of the action were 22-13 ATS. But it gets better. One of the stats the Sports Insights guys have been tracking for years that I love, and very few people pay attention to, is the 80/20 rule. I like to call this the run-as-fast-as-you-can-toward-the-'dog rule. Basically, when the action on one side becomes so lopsided, blindly bet the 'dog. This season, you'd be 6-1 ATS playing that way, with the only loss being the forever humbled and unreliable Jaguars. Since 2003, the 80/20 situation is 94-70 ATS.
That's 57 percent if you need help with that math

Old Post 10-13-13 04:25 PM
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Revisiting The Green Zone
Also in Gambling Opus I, I reminded folks how difficult the end of every game is going to be for all of us. I call these final moments The Green Zone, because that is not only when we earn our money, but when we are most likely to become nauseous. Last year, of the 256 regular-season games, 125 of them entered the fourth quarter within a score of covering the spread in either direction.
So, how's it going so far in 2013?
Well, according to crack gambling researcher and Insider contributor Jeff Gold, of the 77 games played through the first five weeks, 41 entered the fourth quarter close enough to the spread to make us sweat. That is 53 percent of the time. Only once, in Week 4, were there fewer than eight games avoiding The Green Zone. The high was in Week 2, when 11 games went into the last 15 minutes as cringe-worthy contests.
To crank up the tension even more, I asked Jeff to give me the same close-enough-to-the-number-to-make-you-green stats for the final five minutes of the game. And they will, in fact, remind you why the exercise of gambling is futile. There have been 31 instances this season in which the ATS winner was still too close to call with 300 precious ticks of the clock remaining. In Week 1, it happened 10 times.
The good news is that, since that opening week, the final five minutes have become less and less fraught each week. Which is nice because it gives you that extra family time you've been looking for.

Old Post 10-13-13 04:27 PM
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Teams wiseguys will hate over the next month

Houston Texans
Shocker, the Texans are in trouble. But if that's the case, why has their number against the Rams climbed, from minus-7 to minus-7.5 with the public backing them? It's not the quarterback situation, it's that they aren't doing what they do best -- run the ball. They are rushing for more than 130 yards per game and outgaining opponents in yardage regularly, but they consistently throw more often than they run … and they keep losing, too. Wiseguys love to study box scores, not final scores, but even they eventually understand that points win bets, not rushing yards.


San Francisco 49ers
Let's face it, beating up on the Texans doesn't mean the 49ers are back; it means the Texans are in trouble. The 49ers have struggled offensively without Michael Crabtree, much more than people accounted for in their power ratings. And the loss of Aldon Smith has turned this into a middle-of-the-league pass-rushing defense. While they are 3-2 ATS, the line for San Francisco has consistently moved in favor of the team they are playing, meaning wiseguys have seen value in betting against them. That won't change over the next month, but the results may.

Miami Dolphins
A couple of weeks ago, before the Dolphins lost to the Saints in prime time, I asked a bookmaker which team had climbed the most in his power rankings. The answer? Miami.

That is about to change.

When I quizzed The SportsBoss, one of the column regulars who uses his experience in finance to create betting-based algorithms, who he thought would be overvalued over the next few weeks, the Fins were one of the teams at the top of his list (the undefeated Chiefs were the other, which makes sense). He pointed out that in stats that matter to professionals (passing yards per attempt, sacks per passing attempt, time of possession and plays run), Miami was 25th or lower. That included being dead last in plays run. With an upcoming schedule that includes games against teams whose public perception won't be favorable (the Bills and the Bucs), Miami is primed to be faded.

Old Post 10-13-13 04:27 PM
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