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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

5-21-18 Hockey thread, picks, info and more

Vegas wins 4 in a row to take the series and tonight TB tries the same thing

Did not make pick

Zac 0-1 -1.00 (4-2 +2.25)

TB at CAPS (See what I did there) 8:00

Old Post 05-21-18 02:32 PM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

History for tonight

So how often does that road team up 3-2 close things out ? You would think game 7 would be a pretty good chance, wouldn't you. Hmmmmmm.....

Well better than a 50-50 shot. Here the road team is hitting at a 53.3% rate for all rounds. If we look at just the Semifinals stats it's 48.7%, but again a sample size of 39 games. So the Caps at -125 would have to win at a 55.5% rate.

So history says TB is a value play here.

Old Post 05-21-18 04:59 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

The Caps are not only trying to extend their season but also trying to avoid making the wrong kind of history. Washington jumped out to a 2-0 series lead before losing the past three games. Since 1974-75, only two teams out of 41 have won the first two games of a conference final or league semifinal and failed to advance to the next round per ESPN.
Can the Capitals force a Game 7? Or is there value on the Lightning as road underdogs. Since 2006, playoff favorites on a losing streak late in a series (Game 5-7) such as Washington have gone 44-18 (71%) straight-up. A $100 bettor would be up $1,159 waging on these teams (18.7% ROI).

The total for Game 6 opened at six. Most tickets are currently on the under. Is that the right play? Using the Bet Labs software, I answer that question with a betting system that has an over/under win rate of 75%.

There are 1,111 playoff hockey games in our database. Only 119 (10.7%) have closed with a total of six or more goals. The high total hasn’t scared off over bettors. In 86 (72.2%) of those games, 50% or more of tickets were on the over.

Unfortunately for the public, it has been profitable to bet the under in high-total games. Since 2006, the under is 62-41-16 (60.2%) in playoff games with a total of six or higher. It is even more profitable to bet the under late in a series

Since 2006, the under in a high-total playoff game (six or more goals) is 39-13-5 (75%) in Games 4-7. As a series progresses, fatigue and defensive adjustments should lead to lower-scoring games. Plus, the higher the total, the easier it is for the under to hit.

Old Post 05-22-18 12:26 AM
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Brutus5775
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 5364

That
Nbl




My Goal is to Make Money Not Gamble !!

Old Post 05-22-18 12:57 AM
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Zac
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 15654

Washington -131

Good luck.

Old Post 05-22-18 01:08 AM
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