StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > MLS, La Liga Weekend Soccer
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread
Pages (2): [1] 2 »

Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

MLS, La Liga Weekend Soccer

we still have some action to go, let's keep rolling folks
GL

Old Post 05-18-18 08:06 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375

3* Orlando City +346 vs Toronto

Toronto still missing a lot of players and Orlando City off to impressive start and should have plenty of motivation here having lost 3 of last 4 meetings to Toronto.Orlando City has allowed just 3 goals in 3 road games and I think Toronto will get steaming at some point this season,but this is too much value to pass on.GL

Old Post 05-18-18 11:56 PM
Traderpro is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Traderpro Click here to Send Traderpro a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Orlando City SC at Toronto FC (Friday, 8 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Toronto -138, Orlando City +381, Draw +306
Total: 3 goals (o-135)

This is a fascinating match for a number of reasons. Toronto FC looked terrible last week in a 3-2 loss in New England and have the second-fewest points (seven) in the entire league. They were already missing forward Jozy Altidore due to injury, and will now be without perhaps the best player in the league, Sebastian Giovinco, due to a late red card against the Revs. I’ve harped on it a number of times already, but they really need to get results before falling too far behind in the East.

Orlando City, on the other hand, have been very successful this season and are currently fourth in the Eastern Conference with 19 points, 12 ahead of Toronto. They had won six straight matches before losing, 2-1, against Atlanta United last Sunday. Although they’ve been leaky defensively all year, Orlando City have scored plenty of goals in order to win games and will be ready to pounce on a prone back line of Toronto FC. This is the ultimate matchup of Overachievers vs. Underachievers.

Toronto FC are rightful home favorites but I’m more intrigued by the movement on the total. It opened at 3 (o-116) but the juice on the over is now up to -135, and nearly 80% of O/U bets have come in on the over. Despite Orlando City playing so many high-scoring games, I think now is a great opportunity to grab the Under 3 (+118). You’re getting an inflated price right now while buying very low on the shaky defenses of Toronto FC and Orlando City SC.

Old Post 05-19-18 12:20 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

SEVILLA VS ALAVES
Having picked up a point in the derby with Real Betis last weekend, while Getafe suffered defeat to Real Madrid, Sevilla guaranteed a seventh-placed finish and with it a return to the Europa League. Alaves, meanwhile, picked up all three points against Athletic Club to keep their hopes of a top half finish alive following a strong end to the campaign.

Further back still, in 13th over the same timeframe, are Sevilla on nine points, so the odds on the away side coming away with a result certainly don’t correlate with the recent records of these two sides.

Moreover, with ten points from their last four matches on the road, and not a single goal conceded in said outings, Alaves are the form team in the entire division away from home. Given that defensive resolve of late, my tip – and a conservative one at that – would be on the visitors to start with +1.5 this Saturday

Old Post 05-19-18 09:30 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

RENNES VS MONTPELLIER
One of a number of matches in Ligue 1 to carry significance on the final day, Rennes currently hold the upper hand in the race for fifth spot and a Europa League finish after three consecutive victories. Their clash with Montpellier is far from straightforward, despite their visitors position in mid-table, but the fact that a point would be enough for the home side suggests that this could be a cagey affair to say the least.

Indeed, Sabri Lamouchi’s side have scored just 20 goals at home so far, which is only better than four sides in France’s top-flight – all of whom are situated in the bottom five.

Montpellier, meanwhile, have scored the joint-fewest goals on the road (15) but also boast the best defensive record away from home, with their 18 away trips thus far averaging just 1.56 goals per game.

When you combine Rennes’ home and Montpellier’s away games this season just 25 percent (9/36) have seen over 2.5 goals, while none of the last six meetings between the two have ended with three or more goals scored. All things considered, this should be one of the safest unders bets of the entire season.

Old Post 05-19-18 09:30 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

AC MILAN VS FIORENTINA
In reality, a point for either side in last weekend’s meeting between Milan and Atalanta looks to have assured both a European finish following Fiorentina’s shock defeat to Cagliari, but the visitors will hope to end strongly nonetheless.

Their hosts this Sunday, meanwhile, know that they will be back in the Europa League next season despite an underwhelming finish to a topsy-turvy season by all accounts. The Rossoneri have won just two of their last six home matches in Serie A – both against teams battling the drop – and just two of their last ten games in all competitions in total.

Fiorentina, meanwhile, have lost just two of their last 13 away games in Italy’s top-flight – winning seven of the last ten – and should cause problems for Milan side that has stuttered to the finish line. A repeat of the 1-1 draw between the sides earlier in the season is a real possibility from what should be a tight, low scoring match in San Siro.

Old Post 05-19-18 09:34 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

will grab this one now, for the reasons above

SOC [203334] TOTAL u2½-112 (MONTPELLIER vrs STADE RENNES)

YTD
51-36-6 +40.80

Old Post 05-19-18 09:44 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

FA Cup Final

After their lacklustre performance and comprehensive defeat to Newcastle last time out, it is no surprise that Chelsea go into Saturday’s final as underdogs, the odds suggest they have around a 32% chance of winning the game.

Time: Saturday, May 19, 12:15 EST

Venue: Wembley Stadium

Manchester United have scored at least two goals in eight of their last nine FA Cup matches
David De Gea recorded 18 clean sheets in the Premier League this season, his most ever in a single season in one competition
Chelsea have failed to score more than once in a game in their last four outings
Jose Mourinho has won 12 out of 14 cup finals since 2003 and five out of five English Cup finals

“Finals are not for playing, they are for winning”

A mantra that Jose Mourinho has used throughout his career, and to good effect. His unrivalled record in major finals has seen him become one of the most decorated managers of his era. Not only can he add another trophy to his collection on Saturday, but whilst also doing it against a club who used to idolise him as their ‘special one’.

For both Manchester United and Chelsea, it has been a disappointing year. Chelsea have missed out on the Champions League and with unrest behind the scenes, the ship at Chelsea seems anything but steady.

It has been a little more uplifting for Manchester United, who have improved their standings by four places (and 12 points) in the Premier League from last season. Nevertheless, to see their neighbours lift the Premier League wouldn’t sit well with any Red Devils fan. Uninspiring yet efficient performances would not have helped much either.

For both clubs, the FA Cup final can offer a high to end on, as well as avoiding a trophyless season.

After their win against Liverpool, it looked as though Chelsea were going to have a real opportunity to sneak into one of the Champions League spots. A draw against Huddersfield made it difficult, but not impossible. Their 3-0 drubbing to Newcastle ended any chances and any momentum that they could have had going into the final.

United have not been in scintillating form themselves. Just one win in their last three, scoring only one goal in the process.

Both sides could take Saturday’s game which makes calling the final outcome a difficult decision.

With this in mind, I would look at the Total Goals market to find potential value. Manchester United have kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League this season and Chelsea recently have looked unimpressive in front of goal (with the exception of Eden Hazard).

Jose Mourinho’s sides have kept eight clean sheets in 14 finals; Chelsea to fail to beat David De Gea on Saturday stands at 1.892*.

Mourinho has a tendency to make his finals a cagey affair and goals are likely to be at a premium. Just four of Mourinho’s many final wins have come with a margin greater than one goal. Under 2.5 goals stands at 1.609*.

Old Post 05-19-18 09:48 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Manchester United vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 12:15 p.m. ET
Wembley Stadium, London, England

Moneyline
Manchester United +179
Chelsea +188
Draw +213

Total
2 goals (o-120)

Odds to Lift Trophy
Manchester United -115
Chelsea -105

Setting the Stage

Saturday’s FA Cup Final features two of the giants in England squaring off, with Manchester United taking on Chelsea. This game gives both of these teams a chance to win some hardware, which they failed to do over the course of this year. The opportunity is especially significant for Chelsea, who will be looking to make up for a very poor season on both the domestic and European fronts.

Both of these sides are quite stingy defensively, with Chelsea conceding 38 goals in the Premier League and Manchester United conceding 28, which was second in the league. They played each other twice during the season, with each team winning once.

The two things that I find interesting when looking at recent head-to-head meetings relates to expected goals (xG) from Understat. In the first meeting, host Chelsea were the far superior team, with an expected goal total of 1.84 compared to United’s 0.77 xG. Chelsea won that match. It was much closer in the reverse fixture, with Chelsea having 1.69 xG compared to Manchester United’s 1.30 xG.

Manchester United are the slight favorites in the FA Cup Final, and the total is set at 2 despite each of the last two head-to-head meetings having an xG quite a bit higher. Since this is a Cup Final, once a team scores the other has to sell out quite a bit to get it back, which sets up nicely for an over to hit. Betting on both teams to score may be another viable option.

Underlying Metrics

The Premier League table at the end of the season had Manchester United in second with 81 points and Chelsea in fifth with 70. Their underlying numbers suggest that they are significantly more evenly matched than that, though. United have scored 68 goals to Chelsea’s 62, though both are right around 59 expected goals. It’s on defense where the real magic happens. Chelsea have conceded 38 goals, somewhat more than their expected goals against of 34 predicts. But Manchester United have conceded only 28, an astounding difference from their expected total of 43.

Goalkeeper David de Gea has had an absolutely unreal season for Manchester United. He’s the only thing standing between Jose Mourinho’s team in second place and Antonio Conte’s Chelsea side missing the Champions League. Goalkeeping aside, Chelsea have probably been the better team this season. Of course, that’s not going to help Chelsea, who are going to need to figure out a way to slip one past a man having one of the greatest keeping seasons in modern history.

Tactics

This won’t be an entertaining watch. Neither Chelsea nor United particularly want to have possession of the ball. Both teams would prefer to use their opponent’s initiative against them. Chelsea want to keep their back three structured and then counterattack quickly, either through Eden Hazard carrying the ball forward through the center or the wing backs overwhelming opponents down the side. United, on the other hand, want to destroy the midfield altogether and instead play over the top to a striker (although if Romelu Lukaku misses the match, this might be more challenging) and a speedy inside forward who can break through the backline of an opponent.

The likely end result is a cautious match. De Gea will keep distributing long balls into the teeth of Chelsea’s defense, and Chelsea will keep trying to counter attack with two to three men against six. Each team will hope to scrap an early goal off a piece of individual brilliance or a set play while taking very few risks. If that happens, things might get entertaining, as the losing side will need to open up and chase the game. Barring that, it’s going to be a long, boring, grind-it-out affair.
Betting Market

At neutral-site Wembley Stadium, Manchester United and Chelsea have nearly identical odds to win the match in regulation. Manchester United can be found from +170 to +185 depending on the sportsbook, while Chelsea’s odds are anywhere from +175 to +190. The draw ranges from +203 to +220. Public betting percentages have basically been on par with the actual odds, so there’s no lopsided/trendy bet to fade.

We’re also dealing with a very low total of 2 goals (o-120), but bettors do have the option to take an extremely juiced 2.5 goals (u-167).

Old Post 05-19-18 10:23 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

La Liga

can't pass this one up, as there is some nice reverse going on here

SOC [201926] CELTA DE VIGO -108

Old Post 05-19-18 11:40 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
ballinhj12
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 2525

Finally got up early enough to jump in with you brother! This line is really taking off. I can't thank you enough for all you do here Mike! Your thirst for knowledge is unrelenting

Old Post 05-19-18 12:14 PM
ballinhj12 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for ballinhj12 Click here to Send ballinhj12 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

i don't know what happened but Celta Vigo closed at 162, missed the steam action going to breakfast

Old Post 05-19-18 01:58 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

this Celta Vigo match is a good example of watching lines , this is wild

Old Post 05-19-18 02:26 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

looking at the Juventus O 4 shortly

Old Post 05-19-18 02:50 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

got lucky

SOC [203334] TOTAL u2½-112 (MONTPELLIER vrs STADE RENNES)
SOC [201926] CELTA DE VIGO -108...........W

YTD
51-36-6 +40.80

Old Post 05-19-18 02:50 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
isdativan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 1328

Chelsea +170
Hazard to score anytime +200




I'm like a walking accident.
Everywhere I go, I wreck.

Old Post 05-19-18 05:10 PM
isdativan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for isdativan Click here to Send isdativan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Sat MLS

Only on one today. LAFC at Portland. LAFC has scored 4 or more goals in 50% of their games, and are averaging 4.83 goals away from home. Portland is also rounding into form and has averaged 3 goals per game in their home matches. I am on Over 3 to win 2 units.

LAFC/Portland O3 -113 to win 2 units.

Old Post 05-19-18 05:23 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

DC United at San Jose Earthquakes (Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: San Jose -114, DC United +311, Draw +279
Total: 2.5 goals (o-151)

The San Jose Earthquakes just played on Wednesday night and earned a solid 2-2 road draw at Vancouver. There were tons of scoring chances in that match for both sides, and a draw was probably the deserved outcome.

DC United have lost two straight games by the same 3-2 scorelines, and bettors are envisioning the scoring to continue in San Jose.

However, both teams have given up more goals than they should have this season based on expected goals against (xGA), and both teams’ average goals per game exceed three per game: San Jose (3.6) and DC United (3.25).

Despite the propensity for goals in games involving San Jose and DC United, the betting market has refused to increase the total from 2.5 to 3. Instead, sportsbooks have simply raised the juice on the over 2.5 goals to -151, and as high as -160 some places.

I’m going contrarian here and taking Under 2.5 goals (+136), but you can wait closer to game time to see if the total hits 3 goals. If it does, I would gladly pay the juice on the under. Public bettors think this will be an easy over, but they may be falling into a trap.

Old Post 05-19-18 05:46 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Saturday afternoon MLS

83% on NYC FC (-280)
81% on Portland (+111)
52% on Dallas (-182)

Old Post 05-19-18 06:26 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

2-0 +2.0

SOC [203334] TOTAL u2½-112 (MONTPELLIER vrs STADE RENNES).........W
SOC [201926] CELTA DE VIGO -108...........W

YTD
53-36-6 +42.80

Old Post 05-19-18 11:06 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
Pages (2): [1] 2 »   Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: