The 2021 NHL season just finished its first full week of action. And while the sample size may be small, with most teams playing three or four games, we are starting to see some trends that could provide insight into how this unusual season might play out. Here's a look at some early results...

Favorites Dominating

Like baseball, hockey is a predominantly moneyline sport. While the spread, also known as the puck-line, is available as a betting option (favorite -1.5 goals, dog + 1.5 goals), the most popular bet type is centered upon which team will win the game. However, because you're laying a minus price with a favorite, typically -125, -150 or -200, you need to win at a much higher rate than 51% in order to turn a profit. Instead, you have to win closer to 60% of the time.

So far this season, favorites are 31-19 (62%). You are slightly in the green betting every favorite, but not by as much as you'd think with such a high win rate (favorites are roughly + 1.5 units overall). Big favorites -200 or more are 7-1 (88%) to start the season.

Home Favorites

Home favorites have been particularly profitable, going 20-9 (69%). This is a bit of a surprise because we've seen road teams perform much better overall in spread sports like the NFL and NBA in 2021. This is largely due to the lack of home field (or home court) advantage. You would think without fans in the stands it would level the playing field and benefit the road team, but thus far we've seen NHL home favorites win at much higher rate than road favorites (11-10, 52%).

Favorites Off a Loss

One noticeable edge to favorites thus far is betting favorites that lost their previous game. These teams are 11-3 (79%). This speaks to the "bounce back" factor and teams having added motivation to get back in the win column after a disappointing loss. If they're expected to win by the oddsmakers and they're hungry to avenge a loss in the previous game, they are winning nearly 80% of the time thus far. On the other hand, favorites off a win are just 11-10 (52.4%). This speaks to the difficulty of keeping momentum going early in an unusual season.

Favorites on a Back-to-Back

One big scheduling change this year has been teams playing two-game series against the same opponent, some of which are played on back-to-back nights. This is a unique "scheduling spot" that should be closely monitored the rest of the season. Thus far, favorites on the second night of a back-to-back against the same opponent are 4-1 (80%).

Zig-Zag Theory

We've also noticed that teams who lost the first game of a back-to-back have rebounded to go 4-1 in the next game. This is often referred to as a classic "zig zag" situation leading to far more series splits than sweeps.

Overs Cashing

If you like rooting for goals, the first week of the NHL season has been highly enjoyable. So far, overs are 27-22-1 (55%). If the total is 6 or less, the over improves to 22-16-1 (58%).

Back-to-Back Unders

One spot where unders have done well is in the second leg of a back-to-back. In this situation, the under is 4-1 so far. This may speak to the fatigue factor and also knowing your opponent's tendencies and having familiarity with how to defend them, leading to lower scoring games.

Thanks for the update

the favs off a loss in turning into a atm machine

Penguins vs. Bruins
Big bets from sharps have been landing on the Penguins tonight. Since its release, this moneyline price has seen a bit of movement in each direction, though only one of those directions has really been the result of sharp action.

The Penguins’ 34% backing pretty much gives away the sharp play, as there’s generally no reason for a line to move toward an unpopular side unless it’s made up of sharps. Another reason sportsbooks might move toward an unpopular side: that side is the one generating the majority of the money. And that’s what has been happening in this game throughout the early part of the day.

The 34% of bettors on the Penguins have accounted for 72% of actual dollars hitting this moneyline, which, of course, creates a bit of a monetary liability on the underdog. It also, however, reveals the Penguins to be attracting much bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps.

Always great info Mike.

1 p.m. ET: New Jersey Devils (3-3-1) at Buffalo Sabres (3-3-2)

Both of these East Division foes are looking to rebound from losses. The Devils just dropped two straight to the Flyers while the Sabres just fell to the Rangers. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a -140 home favorite. We've seen respected money hit the Sabres, pushing this line up to -150. Buffalo has value as a home favorite (48-16, 75% this season) and a favorite off a loss (28-10, 74%). The total is 5.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling some liability on a higher scoring game.

7 p.m. ET: Nashville Predators (4-3) at Tampa Bay Lightning (3-1-1)

This Central Division showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Predators have won two straight, sweeping Chicago at home. Meanwhile, the defending champion Lightning has lost two straight, first to the Blue Jackets and then the Hurricanes. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a hefty -165 favorite and the line has edged up to -170. The Lightning are a home favorite (48-16, 75% this season) and match several buy-low systems, including favorites off a loss (28-10, 74%) and a favorite off a loss vs an opponent off a win (23-7, 77%). Nashville is 0-2 as a dog this season and 0-2 on the road.

Oilers (+110) vs. Maple Leafs
Puck Drop: 7 p.m. ET
The Maple Leafs have won four consecutive games, but in doing so haven’t been the better team 5-on-5 in any of those games from an expected goals for (XGF) standpoint. Add it all up and Toronto has been good enough for 7.06 XGF in the four games, while its opponents have played to an expectation of 9.35 XGF.

From a situational standpoint, anyone even remotely associated with the Maple Leafs would have been thrilled with taking six out of possible eight points on their trip to Alberta, regardless of how they played. Now Toronto has those points banked, and it’s human nature to feel “mission accomplished” even before puck drop.

The Oilers have enough talent on their power play that eventually their efficiency will meet up with the Leafs atop the NHL’s power-play rankings as a matter of mutual regression. They took a big step toward that Thursday, with the Oilers converting two of seven opportunities and improving to three of 12 in the games against the Maple Leafs.

Alex Ovechkin (COVID protocols) upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Boston

9 p.m. ET: St. Louis Blues (4-2-1) at Anaheim Ducks (3-3-2)

The Blues hold several distinct advantages in this West Division clash. St. Louis is well-rested and hasn't played since Tuesday while the Ducks just played on Thursday. Favorites with at least three days off between games are 12-6 (67%) this season. When they face a tired team (only one or two days off) they improve to a perfect 7-0 (100%). This line opened at -160 and is creeping toward -170, signaling respected money backing the well-rested Blues. We might be looking at a low scoring game in this one. The total is 5.5 with heavy -130 juice to the under. The under is 6-1-1 in Ducks games this season.

5 p.m. ET: Dallas Stars (4-1) at Carolina Hurricanes (4-1)

The Hurricanes took it to the Stars last night, winning 4-1 as -120 home favorites. Tonight, Carolina opened as a -130 home favorite and has jumped up to -140. This signals some respected money laying the minus price with the Canes. Carolina has value as a home favorite (52-17, 75% this season) and a favorite on the second leg of a back-to-back (7-2, 78%). Dallas was without injured stars Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn in last night's game. They are questionable for tonight. Expect the Canes' line to rise if both are out.

5 p.m. ET: Florida Panthers (4-0-1) at Detroit Red Wings (2-5-2)

The Panthers took last night's series opener against the Wings 3-2, cashing as -170 road favorites. Tonight, the Panthers opened as -170 road favorites and have quickly ballooned to -190 behind a steady dose of lopsided action. Favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back are 7-2 (78%) this season. The Panthers are 2-0-1 on the road this season and + 5 in goal differential. The Wings are -14 in goal differential, second-worst in the NHL.

Wildcat

Fwiw

I have found a while back to add filters to such info helps a lot.

For your situation....
Dismiss any favorites where the line is dropping.
It has seemed to be very helpful.

I’m currently looking into using only favs of a certain amount.

Good luck

Great reads, thanks