Tuesday starts another action pack set of matches !
GL

It may not have been a performance of much substance, however after a dismal festive run, Frank Lampard will be somewhat relived his team managed to secure the points against Fulham last time out. Tougher proposition next up for Chelsea when they face 3rd placed Leicester at the King Power Stadium on Tuesday night. Brendan Rodgers’ team are unbeaten in their last five league games and can move to the top of the table if they secure all three points.

Mason Mount inspired the visitors to a hard fought 1-0 win over 10-man Fulham on Saturday afternoon, and in doing so giving his side their first victory since Christmas, boosting them up to seventh in the table.

The 22-year-old scored his second goal in as many games across all competitions, and will no doubt be integral should Chelsea come out on top here.

Leicester played out a win-to-nil of their own at the weekend, impressively beating a tough Southampton side 2-0 thanks to goals from James Maddison and Harvey Barnes which now sit them 3rd in the table and certainly not out of a title challenge should they maintain their form in the coming weeks.

Indeed, the Foxes have lost just one of their last eight Premier League matches and are looking for their third win on the bounce here having seen off Newcastle and Southampton in their last two outings, though in truth their home form certainly needs improving.

They are looking for their first back-to-back home wins of the campaign as that win over the Saints at the weekend was their first against a current top half side this season.

They’ve lost to all of Aston Villa, West Ham and Everton at the King Power, all of which came to nil, while they also succumbed to defeat here against the Cottagers, and they’d be left 9th in a table based solely on home results.

Frank Lampard’s side will be looking to build momentum after wins over Morecambe and Fulham, though this will be a much sterner test of their credentials.

Chelsea are yet to beat a side currently above them in the league, while six of their eight games against top half opponents have come at home, yielding just six points from those games at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues have lost three of their four winless away games against sides placed 14th an above, failing to register a goal in the two such games against top half opponents, so they’ll need a serious performance if they want to claim points here.

Both of last season’s fixtures ended all square, and although Lampard got the better of Rogers in the FA Cup with a 1-0 victory, Leicester could feel aggrieved not have come out with a win from all three of those games as they dominated proceedings and squandered fantastic chances, especially in the league outings.

They can ill afford to be as wasteful this time round and if Jamie Vardy brings his shooting boots, they are certainly the team worth getting behind as underdogs, especially considering their visitors aren’t in full stride at the moment.

Goals have been hard to come by for both sides in their respective home/away games against this opposition type, with Callum Hudson-Odoi’s late consolation against Man City the only goal the Blues have managed against a side currently above them and the Foxes drawing a blank in three of their five home games against top half opponents.

Six of the last seven meetings between the clubs have seen ‘Unders’ land, while both have gone that way in their last two domestic matches without conceding, so that looks the way to go again.

The Premier League action continues midweek with West Ham looking for a third consecutive league win when they welcome West Brom on Tuesday. The Hammers come into their week 18 clash in good form following wins over Everton and Burnley, and the win will see them edge closer to the top four.

A continued surge for West Ham saw them beat Burnley and move to within three points of the European places.

There have been some positive results towards the bottom of the table too, with Sheffield Utd getting their first win of the season against Newcastle, Fulham held Spurs to a stalemate, and West Brom won their derby match against Wolves.

That victory for the visitors over their West Midlands rivals saw Sam Allardyce get his first victory since arriving in the Baggies’ dugout, and now just five points adrift of 17th placed Burnley having played an extra game, they have a new lease of life.

By no means are they out from under the water, with heavy defeats to both Leeds and Arsenal prior to that encounter, but it’s certainly an improvement.

In fact, West Brom have now won one of their three unbeaten trips since mid-December, drawing with both Liverpool and Man City and winning against Nuno Espirito Santo’s men last time out, and they’ll no doubt be difficult again to host.

David Moyes’ men have had a remarkable season considering the prospect of relegation was being circulated at the start of it, and it has been their form against the teams outside the ‘Big Six’ bracket that has got them there.

They’ve won eight of their 11 unbeaten outings against such sides since mid-September, although none of the last nine have seen the two sides separated by more than a single strike.

Moreover, both the Hammers’ clashes with promoted teams this term have finished either 1-0 and 2-1, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat of that.

Considering the Baggies have now seen a maximum of one strike separate themselves and opposition in each of their last five road games, including both defeats, it’s pointing towards another close encounter.

"Fulham have been defensively sound of late, conceding just 4 goals in their last 7 outings, despite playing all of Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, and Southampton"

"At the Etihad, City have won to nil in 7 of their last 8 in all competitions, while in the league alone they’ve won to nil in 12 of 16 since February"

Dortmund has beat Gladbach 12 straight times, sitting at +114

Aston Villa vs Newcastle | Saturday 23rd January 2021,

What a difference six months can make in football! Aston Villa survived on the final day of last season yet Newcastle finished nine points further clear and in mid-table safety. Fast forward six months and, it is safe to say, Villa have been arguably the most improved team in the league whilst Newcastle currently only seem to be heading backwards.

The Toon’s performance left much to be desired at The Emirates last time out, even after Steve Bruce looked to change his teams’ approach against the Gunners. The manager claimed, he was “going to do it my way” before the game resulting in a more attacking line up.

The Magpies still only managed four shots in total and never really looked like troubling the Gunners goal (Newcastle had an XG of 0.16) whilst also managing to appear more vulnerable defensively.

That is now one goal Newcastle scored in their last five Premier League outings and they have gained only two points out of a possible 21 since their last victory. Recent performances have left Bruce admitting his players confidence has “ebbed away” and it seems like the cries for Bruce to lose his job from the Toon faithful are getting louder after each performance.

Villa themselves have not won in the last three in the league but that did include games against three of last season’s top four. Generally, throughout the season Villa have been impressive and their underlying stats show that.

Dean Smith’s side are fifth for xG in the league with just over 30 xG from 16 games and third for goals against with slightly over 20 goals in the 16 matches played.

A key miss for Villa will be the absence of John McGinn after he picked up a fifth yellow against Man City. Since he has returned from injury, he has been a mainstay in the team, and I would propose that Ross Barkley may drop back to a deeper role with Anwar El Ghazi coming in on the wing.

An alternative for Smith may be the defensively-minded Marvelous Nakamba or Jacob Ramsey replacing McGinn.

The betting angles
Villa are odds-on favourites at 1/2 with the draw at 10/3 and Newcastle to pick up the win priced generally at 5/1. I personally feel a Villa win is the most likely outcome, but I feel we can get more value in the HT/FT market.

In Newcastle’s last three league outings (Arsenal, Sheff Utd and Leicester) they have been drawing at half-time and gone on to lose. Priced at a generous 37/10 with SBK for HT/Villa (7/2 generally), it’s an angle that’s copped in two of the hosts’ last five victories

Southampton welcome Arsenal in the early Saturday kick-off one of three all-Premier League FA Cup 4th round matches this weekend. The Gunners have turned a corner following a disastrous start to their 2021 campaign and come into their clash away to Southampton unbeaten in their last six games in all competitions

The FA Cup has been a happy hunting ground for Arsenal in recent times having won four of the last seven editions, with Mikel Arteta steering them through the end stages last term.

They’re W24-D6-L3 over 90 minutes during this period, and they’ll no doubt take this tournament seriously again with a path to European football far from certain via the league.

There’s been little to split the Gunners and Southampton with both occupying mid-table positions this term, though Arsenal have found some form ahead of this fixture.

Including their extra-time goals against Newcastle in the last round of this competition, the visitors have now won five of six unbeaten games since Christmas and racked up a surprising number of clean sheets.

Bernd Leno has now gone 485 minutes without conceding between the sticks, while the injection of youth into the side has brought rewards with seemingly quicker transitions, as Emile Smith Rowe in particular has been earning rave reviews.

Arteta appears to have found a better balance and filled in the creative void left by Mesut Ozil’s exile, though his youngsters are a work in progress and any excitement should be contained.

Southampton have been in excellent form at St Mary’s and even excluding a win over third-tier Shrewsbury, they’re still W5-D1-L2 here since October.

That includes wins over top-half outfits Everton and Liverpool, though the three times where they failed to extract maximum points came in their other clashes with top-half sides as they drew with the Hammers and lost to both Manchester clubs.

Still, those losses to Pep Guardiola and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men both came by one-goal margins and the Saints aren’t easy to down.

Home or away, Leicester are the only other side to beat them in 17 appearances now, though victories have been harder to claim of late with just two from their last seven.

Notably, Southampton’s matches haven’t been thrilling for the neutral over the past five weeks with fewer than three goals in all seven matches.

In fact, four of them featured one strike or none at all, with a total of just eight goals across these games.

At St. Mary’s alone, seven of nine outings since October have also seen under 2.5 goals land, so there’s good reason to back that market here.

Three of four head-to-heads have also gone under that threshold as these two most recently played out a 1-1 stalemate last month.

Meanwhile, there’s been fewer than three goals in six of Arsenal’s past eight domestic road trips, and with their backline now registering clean sheets, that should help keep the scores down.

With how busy the European soccer calendar is at the moment, managers might be rotating their squads to rest some players. Therefore, it might be a good idea to wait to place a wager until starting lineups come out prior to kickoff.

Premier League Notes

Aston Villa vs. Newcastle: The Villans returned from their two-week hiatus due to a COVID outbreak on Wednesday, losing 2-0 to Manchester City. Aston Villa has been resurgent this season and going into the Manchester City match led the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals created. However, they’ve struggled at home as of late, winning only one of their last five matches. Newcastle is beginning to descend down the table, as they’re winless in their last seven matches and are now in 15th place.

Serie A Notes

AC Milan vs. Atalanta: AC Milan is currently in first place in Serie A with a three-point lead over Inter Milan. They have only one loss on the season to Juventus, but other than that they’ve been unbelievable, winning 13 of a possible 18 matches. After a slow start to the season, Atalanta is starting to make their way up the table, as they are unbeaten in their last nine matches.

Ligue 1 Notes

Monaco vs. Marseille: Monaco has seemingly righted the ship in Ligue 1 play, as they’ve won four of their last five matches. Marseille, on the other hand, has fallen on hard times, as they only have one win in their last seven matches. These two teams met on December 12 with Marseille walking away with a 2-1 victory.

Rennes vs. Lille: Lille is currently tied on points with PSG for the top spot in Ligue 1, while Rennes is only six points off the pace. Rennes has caught fire recently, winning five of their last seven matches. Lille is also been in amazing form, winning six of their last eight matches.

Milan vs Atalanta | Saturday 23rd January 2021,

Goals are expected when Serie A's second-best attack meets the fourth-best forwardline.

Atalanta have conceded again in midweek, as happened now in 15 of their 18 Serie A games. Milan have the quality to be very dangerous for them, plus they will have some important players back such as Ante Rebic, Theo Hernnandez and Rafael Leao.

This match will be an absolute cracker and I am happy to watch it with goals on my side.

Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score is 4/5 (Bet365).

Udinese vs Inter Milan | Saturday 23rd January 2021,

Can’t see the same entertaining encounter in the other 5pm match, mind.

Udinese are really struggling in recent times, and they avoided a defeat against Atalanta who wasted lots of good chances.

I don’t think Inter will have any mercy and I am confident to back the Neroazzurri will pick up the points. Antonio Conte’s team have just beaten 2-0 Juventus to continue their winning form, with a season record of nine consecutive victories.

Inter Milan to win and Over 1.5 Goals

Arsenal have won 4 of the last 7 FA Cups, going W24-D6-L3 over 90 minutes during this period in the competition. Impressive.

One of Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal or Chelsea have won the FA Cup in 23 of the last 25 seasons with the same collection of clubs making up 33 of the 50 finalists.

Real Betis (+310) vs. Real Sociedad

Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m.

This isn’t Burnley coming in hot at +1400 odds, but Real Betis has a solid chance at pulling off a big La Liga road upset Saturday against Real Sociedad.

Manager Manuel Pellegrini finally has The Green-and-Whites jelling, which has led to four consecutive wins across all competitions entering this affair.

In contrast, Real Sociedad has been anything but solid as of late. The host side has just two wins in its last eight games, including five defeats, entering this important fixture featuring top-8 sides in Spain’s top flight.

If you comb through Real Sociedad’s overall statistics, you will find a club with solid figures. The host side sits on 30.1 expected goals and 17.4 expected goals against, resulting in a +12.7 xGDiff and +0.67 xGDiff/90 minutes

Real Sociedad is second overall in xG, xGDiff and xGDiff/90 on the table, trailing only Barcelona in all three categories.

In contrast, Real Betis trails in all common stats via its 23.1 expected goals and subpar 26.7 expected goals against, resulting in a poor -3.6 xGDiff and -0.19 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

So, if you follow the metrics, Real Sociedad is a deserving favorite. However, we’re not here to chase the chalk. That said, I am taking a swing on Real Betis at ripe odds to bag all three points at Anoeta Stadium.

Pellegrini’s outfit is clicking at the right time, plus it’s catching an opponent that’s been anything but impressive at the moment. Back the road underdog.

goes at 12:30 est weather could play a factor here....

STRAIGHT BET Jan 23 SOC [202450] TOTAL u2½-120 (WERDER BREMEN vrs HERTHA BSC)

Chelsea have progressed from 51 of their past 53 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division, losing against Barnsley in March 2008 and Bradford in January 2015.

Brentford will be hoping to replicate their League Cup run when they welcome Leicester in the FA Cup 4th round. The hosts progressed all the way through to the semi-finals of the EFL Cup before losing to Spurs, however it seems unlikely the same will happen in the FA Cup considering they are up against a Leicester side that is in top form and briefly topped the Premier League standings earlier in the week.

Leicester were handed a phycological boost as they briefly touched the Premier League summit after downing Chelsea last time out.

It was their fourth win on the bounce, and the third successive game where they both kept a clean sheet and triumphed by at least two clear goals.

That includes a dominant 4-0 win away at top-half Championship outfit Stoke in the previous round of this competition, as things are looking pretty rosy for the Foxes.

Brendan Rodgers’ side are now W8-D2-L1 since early December, scoring at least twice on all but two occasions, while they registered clean sheets in six of those victories.

Even away from home they’ve won eight of 10 domestic trips this season, only suffering defeat at Anfield, as they scored at least twice in seven of these games.

They’ve coped admirably at the back as defensive absentees have plagued them all season, but strong recruitment has enabled them to weather the storm and deliver results.

The treatment table has cleared up now in any case, as only midfielders Dennis Praet and Nampalys Mendy are unavailable. Rodgers will likely hand rests to a couple of key players, but he should still field a strong line-up here and his bench will certainly have strong options.

Brentford sold Ollie Watkins and Said Benrahma to Aston Villa and West Ham respectively this summer, but replacement striker Ivan Toney (who is miles ahead as their top scorer this season with 16 goals) is suspended for this fixture alongside midfielder Josh Dasilva.

Moreover, Swedish international and club captain Pontus Jansson is out injured at centre-back after undergoing ankle surgery earlier this month.
Brentford have claimed a couple of Premier League scalps in recent times as Fulham and Newcastle were beaten in the League Cup this season, as were Southampton last term.

However, they’ve found life much harder when taking on top-end opponents. Arsenal ran out 3-1 winners in the 2018/19 League Cup, while in the FA Cup Chelsea thumped them 4-0 back in 2017 and Leicester themselves triumphed 1-0 at Griffin Park last term in this exact same round.