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usc1990
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6863
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Wunderdog
Prop I like: Highest-scoring half = 2nd + OT (minus-135)
"So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead heat with 23.3 points being scored on average in the first half and 23.6 scored in the second half of games. But in 47 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.49 and 24.32. So we see that the second half average score is 13 percent higher. Excluding the push in 2012, the second half has been the highest scoring half in 29 of 46 Super Bowls (63 percent). Fair odds on a 63 percent bet are minus-170. In the last 23 years, the scoring difference has been even more pronounced with 22.31 average points in first halves and 28.18 in the second. In the last 16 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 12 times out of 14 years (85.7 percent). The bottom line is that there is a lot of value on this bet at minus-135."
FYI,
In Denver's 18 games played this year, the 2nd half was the higher total in 10 games.
In Seattle's 18 games played this year, the 1st half was the higher total in 10 games.
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02-01-14 09:26 AM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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2014 Super Bowl Betting Trends
by Trevor Whenham
There is no shortage of information out there about the Super Bowl. In fact, you can hardly avoid the endless Super Bowl coverage in the media over these two weeks before the game is played.
Most of it is just noise. To help you sort through the avalanche of information and statistics you will be besieged with, here are some Super Bowl betting trends that are interesting and potentially useful:
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are just 1-1 ATS in the playoffs so far. They beat New Orleans by just eight as 10-point favorites in their first game. They are 12-6 ATS on the season and a strong 6-2 ATS away from Seattle. They are likely to be a slight underdog at kickoff. They were not favored just once, and they narrowly covered — they lost by two at San Francisco while getting 2.5 points.
Seattle rises to the occasion against tough opponents — they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with winning records. They have also carried momentum forward well — they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. At 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall they have long been a reliable team to bet on.
The Seahawks have been even more reliable on totals. They have gone “under” in each of their last seven games. They have also gone under in each of their last six against teams with winning records.
Seattle has already played in MetLife Stadium once this year. In Week 15 they easily covered the spread as 9.5-point favorites against the Giants, pitching a shutout to win 23-0. The game obviously went way under the total of 43.5.
Denver Broncos
Denver is also just 1-1 ATS in these playoffs. They beat San Diego by only a touchdown while favored by eight points. They were only slightly less profitable on the season than the Seahawks with a mark of 11-5-1 ATS. They are likely to be small favorites at kickoff. That will be a new experience for them — they were favored by at least 3.5 points in 17 of their 18 games. The lone exception was at New England where they lost in overtime as one-point underdogs.
The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
The Broncos have gone under the total in their last five games and seven of their last 10. They opened the season by going “over” the total eight straight times, so this is a definite reversal of trend. They have gone over the total 24 times in their last 31 games against teams with a winning record.
Denver also got a sneak preview of MetLife Stadium this year. Peyton and his Broncos were favored by 3.5 in the battle of the Mannings in Week 2, and they won 41-23.
Head-to-head
These teams rarely play, and little can be learned from past meetings. Their last two showdowns were in 2010 and 2006, so basically nothing is the same with either team now as it was then. Denver covered the spread in the last meeting and three of the last four, for what it is worth. They did play this preseason in Seattle, with the Seahawks cruising to a 40-10 victory. Given Peyton Manning’s disdain for the preseason, though, that result is beyond meaningless.
Super Bowl history
Seattle has only been in the biggest of games once before. In 2006 they lost 21-10 to the Steelers in a game most known for being Jerome Bettis’s last. The Seahawks were a four-point underdog.
Denver is making their seventh appearance in the Super Bowl. They lost in 1976, 1987, 1988 and 1990 and then won in 1998 and 1999. The last five appearances featured John Elway at the controls.
Common opponents
Besides the Giants, both teams played Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis. Denver was 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS. They lost to the Colts as favorites and didn’t cover against the Jaguars as massive 26.5-point favorites. Seattle had the same 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS records, also losing to Indianapolis and failing to cover as 11-point favorites against the Titans.
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02-01-14 06:32 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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NFL line watch: Which way will the Super Bowl odds move?
by Art Aronson
Things might settle down as bettors who favor blue-chip teams may determine that all things being equal, throwing money down on the best quarterback in the Super Bowl only makes sense.
Or, those in the know might check the long-range New Jersey weather forecast, see that it calls for temperatures in single-digits and winds gusting up to 40 mph and decide that Peyton Manning’s record in the cold isn’t so hot, and that it’s prudent to bet on Seattle’s defense.
All we know right now about the Denver-Seattle Super Bowl is what we don’t know, and right now those that don’t know include the oddsmakers and sportsbooks.
Some Las Vegas books opened with the game as a pick ‘em, while others had made the Broncos 1.5-point favorites. At offshore sites, which can and do move the Vegas boards, there were similar hour-to-hour adjustments. By early Monday morning the offshore lines ran from Denver -3 to Denver +2.
Denver’s passing game is dependent on decent weather, and Seahawks fans can take some comfort in the extended forecast (which isn’t worth much at this point).
AccuWeather for Feb. 2 in Northern New Jersey is calling for a high of 35 and low of 19 degrees, with a mix of snow and rain. Rain at those temps often translates into ice. And in that type of weather, Manning has often played like a wildebeest with a sprained ankle.
So expect the line to move, at least in the next few days, as early money settles in on one team or another. And that will create shopping opportunities for those with access to Vegas books or those of us with multiple offshore accounts.
Numbers folks have set the total for 47.5, which is close to the average number of points scored in an NFL game – figuring that they might as well split the difference between a terrific offensive team with weapons everywhere, and perhaps the best defensive team to make it to the Super Bowl since 2006, when the James Harrison/Troy Polamalu Steelers took down the Seahawks.
The Super Bowl brings out tons of square money, and squares love the 'Over'. But Denver games have gone 'Under' five straight times, and 'Under' players have cashed on the Seahawks seven consecutive games. If the wind is blowing in the swampland of Northern New Jersey on Feb. 2, the smart money will be on yet another 'Under'.
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02-01-14 06:34 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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NORTHCOAST MARQUEE HOTLINE PROPS
EXTENSION #1 FROM NORTHCOAST DEBIT CARD
THESE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON MARQUEE 7 PACKS
BUTTON #3
marquee double-yes there will be over 3- field goals +125
marquee double-1st score will be a non-touchdown,in other words 1st score will be field goal or safety,yes -110
BUTTON # 4
marquee double-yes there will be a defensive or special teams touchdown,yes +160
marquee single-this ones pretty goofy,seattle will get the 1st penalty,yes -110
ps-if some other guys can help buy a few of these,i would appreciate it,they normally do pretty decent,i think I have enough on my debit to buy 2 more,just be sure and post which button you buy,as mentioned,these are from buttons 3 and 4 of the marquee line !!!!
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02-01-14 07:06 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Sean Higgs
5* Best Bet
Seattle Seahawks +3.0/-115
5* Best Bet
Under 47 / -105
Analysis: Taking SEATTLE and the UNDER here. I'll be honest. Many of you had my plays in the Championship round and know that I had Denver and SF to play here at MetLife. Now, I will take that SF loss and roll the dice here on Seattle. Not because I thought SF was playing the best overall football and then since Seattle won, they are the best team. This is based on what I have seen of Denver. And the simple fact is this. When they have had to play physical, bruising teams that like to run, they have either come on with a loss, or on the short side of covering the number. We will start with Indy. They lost on the road to a team that was off to a very good start and had a nice season. Indy somehow managed over 100 yards on the ground with a patch-work run game. After their bye week, a couple tough division games vs SD and KC. They lost at NE when they should have won. Again they face SD and KC, losing at home to the Chargers. In the playoffs they faced SD and NE again and came out on top. But I am not impressed. The Broncos defense is playing very well. I am not going to take that away from them in the least bit. My problem lies with will they be able to contain bruising RB Lynch. I don't think so. This game is going to be won by the Seattle defense vs the Denver WRs. They have the size and strength to slow down this attack. I am not high on Wilson. I have said that before. Seattle is playing with house money. No pressure. All the pressure is on Manning. Seattle can swing here and miss. Denver can't miss at all. They take a shot and turn the ball over and turns into points, I can see them tightening up. This Seattle defense is very good. As great as Manning is, this defense is chomping at the bit to show just how great they are. Total wise, I really like the Under. Forget about the weather. Did you see the Lions and Eagles put up 54 in a near blizzard? I know Lynch won't have a problem in that, nor would I bet against Moreno. But I think these defenses are much better than Det/Phi. That being said, I don't see any wetness playing into the equation. It will be cold, and the QBs will be uncomfortable. The defenses love this kind of weather. We are going 2-0 today. If I don't cash the UNDER and SEATTLE, you can get the rest of February absolutely free by emailing me at seanhiggs2013@g mail 5* BEST BET PARLAY -- SEATTLE and UNDER
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02-01-14 07:17 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Inside Angles - Superbowl Props
Team to have more first downs in the game - Seattle +2˝ (+135): As you will see, we opted to go with positive odds for all of our prop selections beginning with this one. This comes down to the style of play that each team enjoys, as the Broncos are more of a quick strike team while the Seahawks are more methodical with a ball-control offense keyed by the running of Marshawn Lynch and the game management of Russell Wilson, who does not make many mistakes. We actually feel that underdog Seattle will do a better job of running its offense the way it wants here, as we do not expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to have has easy a time against the top ranked defense in football as they did vs. typical AFC defenses. That does not necessarily mean that the Seahawks will emerge victorious, but we do think they will win the Time of Possession battle, which would be a boon to this prop.
First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135): No matter how experienced you are, there are always some nerves early in the Super Bowl that can lead to some sloppy play until the teams settle down. Also, as mentioned, the Broncos may not have as easy a time finding the end zone early on vs. the best defense they have seen all year, and they may settle for a field goal the first time they are faced with a fourth down decision just to get some points on the board. And if the Seahawks are the first team to score, it is even more likely to be a field goal as Wilson is more apt to throw the ball away in the red zone if nothing is open. Both teams have solid kickers in Matt Prater of the Broncos and Steven Hauschka.
Will there be one scoreless quarter - Yes (+240): This play, besides the great odds being offered, is based more on Seattle being able to do what it wants. We think that the Seahawks will be successful in slowing down Manning, who again has not faced a defense nearly as good as Seattle's all season, and his targets for at least one full quarter and we also trust the Seattle offense to take time off the clock. Of course, this prop would also require the Seahawks to bog down around midfield before getting into field goal range, but our feeling here is that the +240 odds make this risk worthwhile.
Montee Ball pass receptions - 'under' 1˝ (+120): Ball had a total of 20 receptions in 16 regular season games, and after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, the only reason he caught three passes in the AFC Championship Game was because the Broncos had a big enough lead on the Patriots that they took the opportunity to give Knowshon Moreno and his ailing ribs that have bothered him since he rushed for 224 yards at New England back in Week 12 some rest. We do not anticipate a blowout here and remember that Ball is still a fumble prone rookie, so do expect to see him on the field as much here with Moreno having had two full weeks off to recover since playing basically one half last game.
Peyton Manning throws an interception before throwing a touchdown (+200): Did we mention that the Seahawks are the best defense that Manning has seen all season? And the biggest strength of the defense is the secondary, led by one of the best cover corners in the game in Richard Sherman. And if you do not believe that Sherman is one of the league's best cornerbacks, you can just ask him! Yes, Manning had 55 touchdown passes vs. 10 interceptions during the year, but as the adage goes, "Good defense stops good offense", so do not expect Peyton to solve the Seattle defense right away, possibly frustrating him into forcing a pass or two.
Super Bowl XLVIII MVP - Richard Sherman (+2000): It seems almost a given that Manning will win the MVP if the Broncos win even if he does not really deserve it as this may be his last chance as the big prize. But there is practically zero value at taking Manning at a shade over even money at +110, so why not take a shot at these 20/1 odds on the best Seattle defender, as if the Seahawks win, the victory is more likely to be keyed by their great defense. Do not surprised if that includes a Sherman interception, and these odds will look mighty good if he could run one back for a Pick Six.
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02-01-14 07:27 PM |
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playtowin
Restricted User
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329
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Seattle averaged 22.6 points per game with 134.6 rushing yards and 193.25 passing yards.
Denver averaged 36.25 points per game with 126 rushing yards and 333.1 passing yards.
Seattle's defense allowed 15.1 points per game with 109.5 rushing yards and 183.5 passing yards.
Denver's defense allowed 27 points per game with 94.1 rushing yards and 274.4 passing yards.
Interestingly, both lost in Indianapolis by 6 points. Another common opponent was the NYG - Denver won by 18 and Seattle won by 23.
Too lazy, didn't read: When on the road, Seattle won on average by 7.5 points. When on the road, Denver won on average by 9.25 points.
If anyone was wondering about the strength of schedules, I would say Denver had the harder schedule as they played 5 above average teams (Dallas, Indy, SD, NE, and KC) and Seattle only faced 4 (Carolina, Indy, Arizona, SF). Sorry for any Rams fans out there - I cannot count them as 'above average' even if they did win 5 games at home this year.
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02-01-14 09:24 PM |
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