West coast foes take center stage under the Friday night lights at the MLS is Back Tournament, with defending champion Seattle going up against San Jose in a Group B showdown.

The Sounders are reportedly at full strength for the first time this season entering their match with the Earthquakes after getting off to a respectable start to its MLS campaign before the hiatus.

Seattle, which has won two of the last four MLS Cup titles, earned a 2-1 victory at CenturyLink Field in its March 1 opener, thanks to a pair of goals from Jordan Morris. The club followed that up with a hard-earned 1-1 draw against visiting Columbus on March 7 prior to play coming to a standstill.

Those results were positives for Seattle, which was eliminated from CONCACAF Champions League play by Honduran side CD Olimpia on penalty kicks in the Round of 16 of the tournament.

On the other side, San Jose could not have been overly pleased with its 0-1-1 start to its MLS season. The Earthquakes, who suffered a 5-2 blowout loss at home against Minnesota United, would be pointless had it not been for an stunning free-kick goal in the waning seconds of its opening match that led to a 2-2 draw against Toronto FC.

Historically, the combatants always play tough, hard-nosed battles and I would expect nothing less than that in their group-stage opener.

The difference for me here — and what gives Seattle the edge — is the return of Nicolas Lodeiro to its lineup. The marquee midfielder makes everything go for the Sounders and was sorely missed at the start of the season, having been sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Lodeiro is a game changer and his vision in the middle of the park might be the best in the league. Thrusting him back in Seattle’s Starting XI gives the club a huge edge that should put it over the top in this match.

Bet Seattle, which is unbeaten in nine of its last 10 matches against San Jose across all competitions, to win outright with confidence.

The MLS Is Back tournament rolls on Saturday as Atlanta United take on the New York Red Bulls in a Saturday night primetime match on FOX. In normal times MLS doesn’t really generate much of a betting handle, but this match should do some big numbers considering the circumstances.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Atlanta United
The 2018 MLS Cup Champions are one of the favorites to win the tournament, but they’ll need to it without their best player, Josef Martinez, who tore his ACL in the first game of the season.

Martinez accounted for just about all of Atlanta’s offense last season, scoring 27 of their 55 goals. The second-leading scorer only netted a six tallies, so it’s hard to envision where Atlanta’s offense is going to come from. Ezequiel Barco and Pity Martinez will have to step up for The Five Stripes.

Atlanta were one of the most consistent teams in MLS last season, ranking third in expected goals against and ninth in expected goals for. Most of their defense has returned for 2020, so I expect them to be near the top of the league in xGA again this campaign.

New York Red Bulls
After an early playoff exit in 2019 and the departures of three club legends in the offseason, 2020 is a year of transition for the Red Bulls.

Luis Robles, Bradley Wright-Phillips and Kemar Lawrence are all gone and the Red Bulls haven’t made any significant moves to replace them.

The core of the Red Bulls is still solid and can compete with the top teams in MLS, but the Red Bulls lack depth across the board. The Red Bulls were the definition of average in 2019, ranking 15th in expected goals for per match (1.50) and 12th in expected goals against per match (1.50).

Analysis
I don’t think there’s much value betting either side at their current prices, but I am projecting this game to low scoring and think there’s some value on the Under 2.5 at plus-money.

Only 90 minutes and a drive on Interstate 71 separate combatants in a featured Saturday match at the MLS is Back tournament.

Perennial Eastern Conference power Columbus takes on in-state rival FC Cincinnati in the Group E fixture at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando.

The clubs will kick off the latest of edition of the “Hell is Real” Derby at an extremely late 10:30 p.m. start, making this an even more intriguing showdown.

Columbus enters the match at full strength and comes off a 1-0-1 record to start its MLS campaign before the hiatus. The Crew opened its season with 1-0 victory against New York City FC at MAPFRE Stadium in Columbus before snagging a deserved point on the road in a 1-1 draw at Seattle.

On the other side, Cincinnati struggled out of the gate, albeit victim on an extremely difficult schedule to open its season. The club was handed one-goal defeats against Eastern Conference powerhouses Atlanta and the New York Red Bulls, so the side is hopeful it can build on those contests and find some positivity at this tournament.

In terms of the history between these teams, this match will mark the third time they will have faced each other, with Columbus holding a 1-0-1 edge in new series.

Columbus has always been considered a dangerous, respected club and found itself in the potential Eastern Conference champion conversation once again at the start of the season. The Crew’s savvy veteran leadership, led by Gyasi Zardes and Darlington Nagbe, give them an edge in a tournament like this against a Cincinnati side still trying to learn a system under new manager Jaap Stam.

Cincinnati seems to be much improved from last year’s dismal campaign, but I am not sure it can keep up with a deep, talented side of its Ohio foe.

That said, I am backing defensive-minded Columbus to pull out the victory in this Group E contest and pick up all three points.

If you’re looking to play the total, I would make a slight lean toward it staying under the number. There has been just one goal in the last two evening matches at this tournament, which seems to be due the late starts and the difficult hot, humid playing conditions blanketing South Florida.

Things will surely heat up in more ways than one Sunday when Toronto FC and D.C. United open the day’s schedule at the MLS is Back tournament in Orlando.

Toronto, which captured the 2017 MLS Cup and has reached the finale three of the last four seasons, enters the competition as one of the overall favorites. The Reds headline Group C and hope to build off their impressive home-opening win against New York City FC that came before the global soccer break.

Manager Greg Vanney was missing at least four starters in that match, including veteran Michael Bradley, and his side dominated its Eastern Conference rival during that showdown.

It was a nice result following a 2-2 draw on the road against San Jose, which needed a golazo in the waning seconds of stoppage time to salvage the draw in each team’s opening game.

This might be the deepest roster Vanney has had during his tenure in “The Six” and that really says a lot, considering this is a franchise that captured the domestic treble during its record-breaking 2017 championship campaign.

On the other side, D.C United comes into the match with a mixed bag of early results. The club suffered a 2-1 loss against Colorado in its home opener, but rebounded with a 2-1 win against expansion outfit Inter Miami in its most recent outing.

As for this Group C fixture, these 9 a.m. EST starts really have me perplexed. The South Florida weather has been ghastly in the morning and it is supposed to be much of the same at the start of this match.

The forecasted temperature at 83 F, with the heat index making it feel like 93 F, according to wunderground.com. Add in the predicted humidity level of 84 percent and you have beyond sweltering conditions.

Looking back at the schedule, the only other 9 a.m. match that’s happened at this tournament thus far came earlier in the week, when Philadelphia delivered a 1-0 shutout victory against New York City FC. I see a similar result happening in this game and will back the total to stay under the number in what should be a low-scoring affair. It also doesn’t hurt that the total has stayed under 2.5 goals in six of the last seven matches Toronto FC and D.C. United have played against each other across all competitions.

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Clubs that started the Major League Soccer season in style go at it Sunday when Minnesota United takes on Sporting Kansas City at the MLS is Back tournament.

The Western Conference combatants headline Group D play at the competition, which is taking place at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, and both look to carry the form that saw each win the first two matches of their respective seasons before the hiatus.

Sporting Kansas City, which I tabbed as one of the top contenders at this showcase event, was the definition of dominant in its matches at the start of the campaign. The club opened with a 3-1 road victory at Vancouver and followed that up with a 4-0 home rout against Houston at Children’s Mercy Park.

Newcomer Alan Pulido, who arrived in the Midwest from Liga MX side Club Deportivo Guadalajara in the offseason, leads a vaunted attack that could become the best in the Western Conference this season.

On the other side, Minnesota kicked off its season in grand fashion with impressive victories. The Loons stunned Portland, 3-1, in the Timbers’ home opener and delivered a 5-2 trashing to San Jose in their final game before the global pandemic halted soccer around the world. It was a start that really seemed to carry over from Minnesota’s success last season, where it made the MLS playoffs for the first time.

If this game was played on paper, it would be a fairly even match. However, Minnesota is going to be without star Ike Opara roaming the back. Opara, the 2019 MLS Defender of the Year, opted to skip the trip to Orlando to deal with a preexisting condition that’s not COVID-19 related.
He could make the trek down to Florida at some point in the tournament, but for now the Loons are going to have to fill the monster void created via his absence.

With that in mind, I feel things are going to open up for Sporting Kansas City offensively and really put Minnesota on its heels throughout the match. Opara was a big reason why the Loons had so much success last season and at the start of this season, so him being unavailable puts them in a pinch against a team with so much firepower like Sporting Kansas City.