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GL

Three straight league wins for Arsenal since their opening loss after the break to Brighton, while Leicester’s comprehensive win over Palace last time out sees them remain a point ahead of Chelsea in third. Plenty at stake for both clubs in this one, however Arteta will be mindful that the three points will put them within touching distance of the Champions League battle.

Recent Form
Arsenal don’t have any realistic prospect of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, but they do have a good chance of making the Europa League, now trailing sixth-placed Wolves by just three points following their victory over Nuno Espirito Santo’s men on Saturday.

That was their third win to nil on the bounce, while in addition they also produced another victory over Sheffield Utd in the FA Cup.

Things are also looking up for the Foxes after they finally picked up their first win since the restart, downing Palace 3-0 at the King Power, with Jamie Vardy’s brace taking him into the 100 club for goals.

However, in truth the Eagles were poor and they had to be patient for the breakthrough with all three strikes coming in the second half, meaning Leicester have taken a lead into the second period in just one of their last nine as they were level at that point in seven, with the exception a narrow 1-0 advantage hosting relegation contenders Villa.

In fact, despite their lofty league position, Brendan Rodgers’ outfit have won the first half in just two of 14 matches against top-half sides this term, with neither coming against the traditional heavyweights as they secured 1-0 leads over Burnley and Sheffield Utd.

The Gunners may have taken first half wins over Wolves, Norwich and Southampton in their last three, but prior to that they’d drawn the opening 45 in five of six matches, leaving them level at the break in three of their last four at the Emirates.

Given these two sides have been all square at half time in six of seven meetings dating back to the beginning of 2016/17, with the exception when Konstantinos Mavropanos saw red for Arsenal after just 15 minutes in May 2018, this should be another tight encounter.

Leicester had managed just two goals in three games prior to facing Palace, as well as going down 1-0 to Chelsea in the FA Cup, so we’re unconvinced they’ve fully rediscovered their scoring touch just yet.

Indeed, they’ve drawn a blank in three of their last five against top-half outfits, as one of those exceptions came against Burnley, while they’ve now lost four of six such winless matches.

Half-Time Draw
Output in this game could be reduced by absentees. Leicester have fitness doubts surrounding attacking midfielder James Maddison, striker Ayoze Perez and left-back Ben Chillwell, while right-back Ricardo Pereira has been sidelined since March.

The Foxes like to use their full-backs as weapons going forwards and they’ve been level at the break in four of five games Pereira has missed this season as they’ve missed his attacking impetus.

Meanwhile, although Arsenal’s injury list has shortened, Mikel Arteta will be sweating on the fitness of Nicolas Pepe and won’t be able to call upon Gabriel Martinelli from the bench.

Given Arsenal are a poor W2-D4-L6 against the top eight in the table this season, we wouldn’t be able to merely trust recent showings and get behind them.

This game could go either way, but we’d back the half-time draw in what could be quite a cagey affair.

Chelsea, along with Manchester United, have become the most exciting team to watch during Project Restart. The Blues have won four of their five matches in all competitions, including a 2-1 win over Manchester City, and have outscored their opponents 10-5.

The Blues offense, which has created the second-most expected goals since the hiatus and third-most overall, is buzzing thanks to contributions from Christian Pulisic and Willian.

Chelsea’s defense still could use some sorting out, they are allowing 1.25 xG against per match in their last four Premier League matches, but for now the Blues’ offense is providing more than enough cover for a shaky defense.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

After opening Project Restart with a 2-0 win over relegation-threatened Bournemouth, Crystal Palace have dropped three consecutive matches and are seemingly content to play out the string. Roy Hodgson’s team are in no danger of being relegated, nor can they qualify for European Football, so there could be some complacency settling in for the Eagles.

Their expected goals certainly back up that notion as Palace are generating just 0.61 xGF per match since the hiatus. Chelsea’s defense may be vulnerable at times but there’s nothing scary about Palace’s attack, which ranks dead last in the Premier League in expected goals created.

$5 Footlongs are back !!


1 parlay of 3 Teams ....pays 3 Footlongs, chips and a drink

Watford FC
-135

Over
2.5-114
Leicester City vs Arsenal FC

Chelsea FC
-233

glta

It’s been a season to remember for Premier League champion Liverpool as it chases the 30th victory of its campaign on Wednesday when it faces host Brighton & Hove Albion.

The Reds are a whopping 23 points clear of Manchester City on the league table and can simply enjoy the rest of their historic season. Liverpool, which is second overall in expected goals (66.16) in the league, is coming off a lackluster 2-0 victory against lowly Aston Villa. The Reds were not at their best in the win following the 4-0 drubbing it suffered against Manchester City in the match before the Villa win, so I am sure manager Jürgen Klopp was happy to see his club quickly get back to its winning form.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Brighton, currently 12th in expected goals (42.01), are coming off a monster 1-0 win against Norwich City on the weekend that helped move it nine points clear of the relegation zone. Manager Graham Potter could not have asked for a better response from the Seagulls, who had suffered a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United prior to the triumph, and now sit in 15th place on the table on 36 points.

Defensively, no one has been better than Liverpool in the Premier League this season: The Reds are tops in expected goals against (32.72) and have produced three shutouts in their last four league contests.

On the other side of the pitch, Brighton has been relatively solid and sits mid-table in expected goals against (47.57) in 10th place. The Seagulls have been relatively stingy as of late, recording three clean sheets in their past five league games.

When it comes to handicapping this match, you really have to put the statistics aside for a moment and ask yourself which club is actually going to be more up for this contest: Is it Liverpool, which has nothing to play for other than league records? Or is it Brighton, which has seemingly done enough to stay in England’s top flight and could potentially cruise along the rest of its campaign?

I lean toward a mixture of both.

Liverpool wants to finish strong and not fizzle out late in a season in which it has won 29 matches against two losses and two draws. When it comes to Brighton, a signature win against the league champion would be icing on the cake, so the club has to be carrying some serious momentum from the Norwich City victory into this match on home soil.

Brighton has mustered only three shutouts in 16 home league matches this season and I can’t see it silencing Liverpool. And despite being such a defensive juggernaut, the Reds have not been air tight in the back in recent games. Liverpool has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches away from Anfield across all competitions, which could lead to some fireworks at American Express Community Stadium.

Sheffield United vs Wolves | Wednesday 8th July 2020, 1:00

Two recently promoted sides battle it out on Wednesday evening. The last time Chris Wilder and Nuno Espirito Santo locked horns at Bramall Lane the Blades came off stronger, with former Wolves man Leon Clarke netting a brace, and now captain Conor Coady seeing red after just 15 minutes in the second tier.

Now sitting ninth and sixth respectively in the Premier League, the Blades, who trail Wolves by four points, will be looking be just as disruptive in punching their way back into the race for European qualification with only five matches remaining.

Build up
Before Saturday’s 2-0 home defeat to Arsenal, Wolves had won all three outings since the resumption of play, impressively all to nil. They intriguingly have not managed a goal before the hour mark in those four matches, demonstrating they are strong finishers… or slow starters depending on what side of the fence you sit.

Amongst a lot of credit in hitting the ground running post COVID-19 break, the loss to the Gunners suggests they had had a nice run of games as oppose to bulldozing their way in the form of Adama Traore to a Champions League spot.

Coming up against relegation threatened West Ham, Bournemouth and Aston Villa in their previous three encounters. They could only muster one shot on target in the defeat, better to categorise it as a game too far for Santo’s thin squad.

The Blades have recovered some of their grit and gusto that has made them the surprise package of the season in recent weeks. Putting last season’s Champions League finalists Tottenham to the sword 3-1, only conceding to a Harry Kane consolation goal. It was head and shoulders their best display since the resumption of the campaign and they carried on that momentum with a hard-earned point at Burnley on Sunday.

John Egan volleyed in the equaliser 10 minutes from time. The team’s spirits will also be boosted by the return to fitness of Jack O’Connell with Wilder’s men still boasting the joint-third best defensive unit in the league.

The betting angles
Twenty-four of United’s 33 Premier League ventures this term have brought Under 2.5 goals, as have all of Wolves’ fixtures since the resumption.

Talking of finishing strongly the Blades found the net in the final quarter of an hour for the third consecutive game at Turf Moor, more available substitutions really giving Wilder a greater attacking threat. Given the above statistics the second half being the higher scoring one looks likely, with all the visitors’ half time scorelines being goalless prior to the Arsenal loss.

Alternatively, you could look to get on side with Wolves as slim favourites, who have had an extra day to prepare and have taken part in just four games compared to the Blades’ six post-break.

Recent Form
Che Adams’ first Premier League goal was worth the wait as his 40-yard lob was the difference between Southampton and Man City on the weekend.

That defeat means Pep Guardiola’s side have now lost three consecutive away league games for the first time in his managerial career, so there may be some rethinking to do ahead of next season.

Their home form is quite the opposite however as they’ve gone W12-D2-L2 at the Etihad this season, winning each of their last four by an aggregate 14-0, which included a 4-0 routing of new champions Liverpool.

Newcastle have found some form of their own since the restart and are now unbeaten in six. It should be noted that Sheffield United and Burnley are the hardest sides they’ve faced during this run, having faced three of the bottom five in their most recent three fixtures.

There was a 2-0 FA Cup defeat to Man City themselves in that run, though in fairness to the Magpies Steve Bruce fielded more of a second team than Pep Guardiola did in that clash.

This fixture has been competitive in recent times, with the Tyneside club going W1-D2-L3 in league fixtures dating back to April 2016.

However, all five of those points were picked up at St James’ park and we can’t see them wreaking too much havoc here considering the Citizens home form.

Manchester City To Win And Both Teams To Score
Nemanja Matic’s League Cup goal here at the end of January is the only one that Man City have conceded in their last six home matches, though with Newcastle’s goalscoring form at the moment we wouldn’t want to back the shutout.

Indeed, only Man United, Chelsea and Man City themselves have plundered more goals than the Magpies over the last six matches.

Although we can see City being ruthless as they look to get back to winning ways, they regularly look susceptible to conceding goals.

They’ll have to contend with the pace of Miguel Almiron and the fast feet of Allan Saint-Maximin here, so the win with both teams to register looks to be the best bet in this fixture.

Sergio Aguero remains out for this fixture and unless Guardiola opts for another false nine like he did in their defeat to Chelsea, Gabriel Jesus would be one of the most likely starters here in an ever-changing City line-up.

While obviously a talented forward, he’s not managed to find the net in any of his three starts since Aguero’s injury, and hasn’t scored in any of his last nine appearances, so we’ll ignore him for the goalscorer here.

Manchester City vs Newcastle | Wednesday 8th July 2020, 1:00

Manchester City host Newcastle United in one of three 18:00 Premier League matches on Wednesday evening. The Citizens will be looking to bounce back from their surprise 1-0 defeat at Southampton on Sunday, which was watched by more viewers than any Premier League game in history.

Newcastle, meanwhile, came back from behind twice to draw 2-2 with West Ham in an entertaining game earlier in the day.

Steve Bruce has reverted to a back four since the season re-started last month, and has been duly rewarded with 10 goals in four league games (having led his side to just 25 in the first 29). The one exception, however, was in the 2-0 home defeat to City in the FA Cup quarter-final, when he elected to keep it tighter with a back five.

I expect Bruce to do the same here; as such, with City relentlessly attacking the parked bus until the game becomes dead, which hopefully won’t be too early, there could be value in the corners market as opposed to the more conventional markets, where City are as short as 1/8 to win, 2/5 to win by 2+ goals, and 4/6 to win while keeping a clean sheet.

Indeed, City average the most corners-per-game in the league, both at home (8.56) and overall (7.97), while also averaging conceding the fewest at home (2.5) and overall (2.7).

Newcastle, meanwhile, average the fewest corners-per-game in the league both away from home (3.31) and overall (3.91), while conceding the second-most overall (6.91) and fifth-most away (7).

Bournemouth vs Tottenham | Thursday 9th July 2020, 1:00

With both sides struggling for any sort of form heading into this one, goals are guaranteed, seemingly. The hosts are without a win in their last eight Premier League matches, despite scoring seven goals during that winless run.

This fixture, more often than not, presents plenty of goals. Three out of the last five meetings between the two sides have featured Over 4.5 Goals. Worryingly for Bournemouth, they’ve conceded nine goals in their previous two Premier League matches – during defeats to both Newcastle and Manchester United.

But from a Spurs perspective, Mourinho’s men have conceded four goals in their last four Premier League matches, scoring five, so they’ll be on the hunt for a convincing win. Given Bournemouth’s defensive frailties, the visitors will get plenty of opportunities in front of goal.

Given Tottenham’s current form and their defensive improvements, I can’t see anything other than a victory for the visitors, here. In terms of value, my recommended bet for this one is the visitors to win, with Over 2.5 Goals in the match, which is available at 31/20 with Coral.

As far as Spurs’ away form goes, Mourinho’s side are without a win in their last three Premier League matches on the road, with their last away Premier League victory coming in February against relegation favourites, Aston Villa.

I expect goals, with Spurs running out eventual winners. Both sides have problems from a defensive point of view, so we should be guaranteed plenty of goalmouth action, although Spurs’ firepower with the likes of Dele Alli, Harry Kane and Son Heung-min may prove too much for Eddie Howe’s side.

Bournemouth shown glimpses of capability during their 5-2 defeat at Old Trafford from an attacking perspective, but they must tighten up defensively if they’re to get anything out of this one.

Leeds vs Stoke | Thursday 9th July 2020,

Leeds continue to stride towards the promised land. The league leaders can edge closer to promotion if they see off struggling Stoke at Elland Road.

Marcelo Bielsa’s men were 3-1 winners at Blackburn on Saturday, and return to home soil where they are unbeaten in five, keeping clean sheets in four of those.

The relentless nature of Leeds’ play has reaped rich rewards so far. At home, their Expected Goals is 2.19xG (highest), while their Expected Goals Against is 0.96xGA – the lowest.

Stoke eased their relegation fears with Saturday’s 4-0 victory over Barnsley, but will still be looking over their shoulders.

The Potters have been leaky at the back all season so that a very welcome clean sheet. However, one big problem has been their away form with just 16 points (W4-D4-L12) picked up on the road.

It’s no win in six away games for Stoke, who have conceded 13 times in that run, scoring just four. I don’t want my heart to rule head here, so it’s fair to say it’ll be an uphill task, but Stoke did knock Leeds out of the League Cup on penalties at Elland Road earlier in the season, and I’d snatch your hand off for a point.

There’s no team in the Premier League in better form since the restart than Manchester United, who have won three and drawn one in their first four matches. The partnership of Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba in the midfield along with an in-form front three has led to plenty of goals and wins for the Red Devils as they travel to struggling Aston Villa on Thursday.

Villa enters this match on 27 points, sitting in 18th, four points from safety. With just five matches to play, Aston Villa need to put up at least two, maybe three wins if they want to remain in the Premier League next year. In five matches since the restart, the Lions have lost three and drawn two, but they’ve put up some decent performances and have been a bit unfortunate to not see any results.

Villa outplayed both Sheffield United and Chelsea for large portions of the first two matches of the return, but poor finishing led to just one goal and one point out of a possible six. They dominated most of the play against Newcastle in a 1-1 draw, and then lost back-to-back games to Wolves and Liverpool after stifling both attacks for the majority of the match. Even though they’ve taken just two points, their expected points is 4.9 from those matches.

On the opposite end, no attacking unit is in better form than Manchester United. The front three of Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood and Anthony Martial have provided pace and quality finishing. With the creativity of Fernandes and Pogba, the Red Devils have scored 11 goals in three matches on 6.68 xG.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

While the play has been really good, the finishing has been unsustainably great. Mason Greenwood now has eight Premier League goals this season on 2.73 xG, a historically efficient finishing return. United have also tied the Premier League record for most penalties drawn in one season (12).

While it may be true that United is in great form, the market has overreacted significantly to their good form and that creates value on an underrated Aston Villa side.

Manchester United have also struggled in one key area defensively that the Lions may be able to exploit: corners. United have conceded eight goals from corners this year, and thanks to the usually excellent delivery from Jack Grealish, Villa have scored seven goals off corners.

It will probably only take one goal for Villa to get inside the spread here. The Red Devils have also struggled away from Old Trafford this season, where they rank ninth in the Premier League with 20 points and an even goal difference.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high play here, where the market is overreacting and overvaluing a mediocre road team playing against a desperate Villa side.

Everton and Southampton are coming off two very different results.

Everton are coming off a dull 1-0 loss at Tottenham on Monday, while Southampton pulled off a massive upset against Manchester City over the weekend.

Neither side has much to gain from this match as they are both comfortably positioned in the middle of the table.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Everton
Despite their loss at Spurs, the Toffees have been in good form since the restart. Everton have earned seven of a possible 12 points with a +0.18 expected goals differential. The Toffees have been playing well going back to December, when Carlo Ancelotti took over as manager.

The Italian has completely turned Everton’s season around and has the Blues playing like one of the top teams in England

Everton have done a good job of beating teams below them in the table at Goodison Park. The Toffees are 4-1-1 in six matches with a +3.77 xG differential.

Southampton
The Saints have been been buzzing during Project Restart, winning three of their last four matches. Those results, however, are a bit deceiving as the Saints have lost the expected goals battle, 7.37 to 4.77, in those matches, though much of that damage was done by Man City, who posted a 3.53-to-0.7 xG advantage over Southampton on Sunday.

Southampton have weirdly been much better on the road than at home in 2019-20. The Saints have earned 60% of their points away from St. Mary’s but most of that success has come against bottom feeders.

When they’ve played the bottom-eight teams in the standings on the road, Southampton have an average xG differential of 0.40. Against the top-12 teams that number dips to -0.37.

Previous Meeting
Everton won the reverse fixture between these two sides, 2-1, at St. Mary’s back in November. The Toffees were dominant in that match, outshooting Southampton 24 to 4 and holding 55% of the possession.

The expected goals report backed up Everton’s terrific performance. The Toffees won the xG battle, 2.38 to 0.87.

Analysis
Everton opened at -130, but have dropped all the way down to +112, thanks to 67% of the dollars coming in on Southampton

Real Madrid vs Alaves | Friday 10th July 2020,

The second match of the night in Spain sees in-form Real Madrid host out-of-sorts Alaves; Madrid have won all seven outings since the restart, scoring 13 goals and conceding just twice, whilst Alaves have managed W1-D0-L6, nothing just three goals.

Alaves face an extremely uphill task at the Bernabeu and it’s hard to see where the visitors will get joy against a defensively sound and well-drilled Los Blancos outfit. So, the first bet I like for this game is Real Madrid to win ‘to nil’ at 5/6 with Skybet. Real have won five of their last six games with a clean sheet and boast 18 La Liga shutouts in 34 fixtures this term.

Liverpool vs Burnley | Saturday 11th July 2020, 10:00

As newly-crowned champions, Liverpool host Burnley at Anfield, and it is in fact the visitors who enter Saturday’s clash in the better form. Sean Dyche’s side are unbeaten in their last four Premier League matches, conceding just a single goal in a draw against Sheffield United at Turf Moor.

The Clarets suffered a 5-0 defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in their first game after lockdown, but the response has been commendable, to say the least.

As for Jurgen Klopp’s hosts, the champions have won just two out of their four Premier League matches since the restart, suffering a heavy defeat to City, much like their opponents.

In terms of potential outcomes, a Liverpool victory is most certainly on the cards, but Burnley will be keen to make life difficult for Klopp and his Reds.

There’s plenty of value in this one, despite the short odds for a home win. I fully expect the visitors to take the game to Liverpool. Therefore, odds of 17/10 (Coral) available on a home win and Both Teams To Score appeals.

Backing this up, in four out of five previous meetings between the pair, both teams have found the net. There’s a strong chance that we’ll see goals again in this one

Recent Form
Six of Burnley’s last seven since late February have seen fewer than three goals, with three of the last four resulting in 1-0 victories over Watford, Burnley and West Ham.

They did lose 5-0 to Man City last month at the Etihad, though that was their first game back after the enforced covid-19 break, while Pep Guardiola’s men have also thrashed Liverpool (4-0) and Newcastle (5-0) since the restart.

The Reds clearly haven’t been at their effervescent best since effectively wrapping up the title prior to the break.

They’re just W5-D1-L5 across all competitions since mid-February when including extra-time, though when excluding a pair of clashes with Atletico Madrid, as well as domestic encounters with Chelsea and Man City, they’re a much better W5-D1-L1 over this period.

They still found the net at least twice in each victory, while the two outings where they failed to pick up maximum points both came away from Anfield, so although not firing on all cylinders they remain a potent force.

The top five in the table unsurprisingly hold the best offensive records in the league and against such teams, Burnley have seen a minimum of three goals in seven of nine matches this season.

In fact, eight of 10 clashes with top-five finishers last term went the same way, while that record is even more stark when limiting results to those against dominant duo City and Liverpool over this period.

They’ve lost all seven such matches, trailing at the break in five of them as five also saw a minimum of four strikes, with Burnley conceding at least three times in all but one of these.

Both Teams To Score
Burnley’s clean sheet at West Ham midweek owed a lot to Nick Pope’s heroics between the sticks and another shutout is unlikely here.

Captain Ben Mee has missed their last two games and with club-record signing Ben Gibson falling out with staff before being shipped off on loan, that should mean Kevin Long partners James Tarkowski at the back.

However, Burnley have kept just one clean sheet in the last six game he’s started, with the 29-year-old having spent the majority of his career in the lower leagues.

Watford are fighting for their Premier League lives as Newcastle visits Vicarage Road on Saturday. With just four matches remaining in the PL season, Watford sit on 31 points, three ahead of Bournemouth and the relegation zone.

The Hornets nabbed a crucial 2-1 victory over Norwich in the midweek and now are one win away from likely securing their place in next year’s Premier League.

Watford still have Manchester City and Arsenal in their final two games, so this matchup is a must-win and a motivational mismatch. Newcastle is already safe, somehow, because they’ve overperformed their underlying metrics the entire season.

In their last four matches, Newcastle have allowed plenty of good scoring chances. Historically, when a team is safely in the mid table, the defense tends to drop off first.

Newcastle was never a good defensive team by any stretch, but in their last four games they have allowed 7.48 xG to Bournemouth, West Ham, Aston Villa and Manchester City.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Newcastle isn’t playing for anything here, and away from home, they’ve been the worst team in the PL based on underlying metrics. The Magpies are 20th in xGD away from home this season, with only two teams allowing more expected goals away from home. Meanwhile, Watford has been a respectable side at home this year.

Watford’s attack couldn’t be in much worse form than it is currently, having generated just 3.67 xG in five matches since the restart. But the Leicester, Burnley, Chelsea and Southampton defenses are all significantly better than the one Watford will line up against on Saturday.

The Hornets boast the league’s eighth-best expected points at home since Nigel Pearson took over as manager, averaging 1.6 xG in home games since his start.

While Newcastle has been porous defensively all year, their offensive output has improved of late with the in-form Miguel Almiron and Joelinton up front.

Newcastle generated 2.03 xG against West Ham, 2.23 in a rout of Bournemouth, and 2.15 vs. Sheffield United in three of their last four matches. Watford hasn’t been good defensively, so the Magpies should look to play open football and will score at least one goal.

Relegation will be theme on Saturday morning as West Ham heads to Carrow Road to take on last-place Norwich City. Anything other than a win will officially relegate the Canaries.

West Ham are three points clear of the relegation line and, with only four matches remaining in the season, this is the Hammers’ best opportunity to throw some points in the bag as they continue to scrap with Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Watford to stay in the Premier League.

Norwich City
The Canaries have been terrible all season and have lost all five all Premier League matches (and one FA Cup game) during Project Restart.

Although Norwich City have been outscored, 11-1, in their five Premier League matches, they haven’t performed as poorly as the scoreline suggests. The Canaries have a -2.74 xG differential (6.21 to 3.47) since play resumed.

This is nothing new to Norwich City, who have been due for some positive regression all season. According to expected points (xPoints), the Canaries deserve to have 32.4 points on the season. Instead, they are sitting on 21.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Norwich’s offense has been especially unfortunate. The Canaries are only scoring 0.76 goals per match despite creating 1.04 xG per 90 minutes. A lack of finishing talent could certainly be playing a role in Norwich’s underachieving attack, but there’s no denying they deserve a slightly better fate than the one they are experiencing.

If ever there was an opportunity for Norwich’s offense to come out of a rut, this would be it, as West Ham sport the second-worst defense in the Premier League.

West Ham
Going by expected goals, only Aston Villa are worse defensively than West Ham, who concede 1.90 xG per match. The Hammers have improved during Project Restart but they are still conceding 1.46 xG per 90 in their last five matches.

West Ham have been especially bad on the road this season, ranking last in xPoints, 19th in xGA and 16th in xGF away from home. The Hammers have laid an egg in their last seven road matches, earning just one point and sporting a -0.95 average xG differential (1.13 xGF, 2.08 xGA) in that span.

Even though they’re going up against the last-place team in the Premier League, it’s no guarantee the Hammers will be able to dominate this match.

Analysis
This match opened around a pick’em, but West Ham has moved all the way to -104 thanks to 84% of the moneyline dollars being on the Hammers

Norwich have scored just 5 goals in their 14 Premier League games in 2020, and never more than once in a match.

The Canaries have failed to score in a league-high 16 Premier League games this season.

Sheffield United are hosting Chelsea in a game that could have huge ramifications at the top of the table. The home side are back in the race for Europe, thanks to a late John Egan winner against Wolves. Meanwhile, Frank Lampard’s team are the hunted in third place and need to keep winning matches to ensure they remain in the top four. This should be a clash of styles and an intriguing tactical contest for the neutral.

It has been a remarkable first campaign at this level for Sheffield United. Chris Wilder had to earn the right to manage in the Premier League, while many of the players had a similar journey through the Football League. Many are now establishing themselves as household names and they will realise that they have a great chance of securing European qualification. There may never be a better opportunity. Their victory over Wolves will give them confidence that they can beat an in-form Chelsea team.

Chelsea have overachieved based on the low level of expectation following the sale of Eden Hazard and appointment of Frank Lampard. Many predicted that they would finish in 6th position, but they have managed to secure a top four position for the majority of the season. They need to now finish the campaign off and make sure that they don’t miss out on next season’s Champions League. The club have backed Frank Lampard in the transfer market, with Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech moving your Stamford Bridge this summer. He needs to show that he is deserving of that faith and end the season strongly.

INTERESTING STATS
Sheffield United are unbeaten in five Premier League matches. They have won four of their last five at Bramall Lane

Olivier Giroud has now scored five Premier League goals in his last eight matches. His precious five goals in the competition came across 49 matches.

Berge

The Norwegian international has taken his time to adjust to English football, but he has been excellent in the absence of John Fleck and John Lundstram. Sander Berge has established himself as one of the first names on the team sheet with some quality performances. During January, his signing was seen as a huge coup for the Sheffield club and he is now showing why he was highly rated in Belgium. He looks to have the physicality to thrive in the Premier League, with Chris Wilder’s faith in him now being paid back. Against Wolves, he dominated central areas, winning two tackles, completing three dribbles and winning two aerial duels. Berge is combative and able to shine in transition with his ball-carrying ability. A couple of weeks ago, he showed his goal threat with a goal and an assist against Tottenham. Chelsea can be open in central areas. The 22-year-old will have a big part to play on Saturday.


Willian

Since lockdown, there have been a number of players standing out on a consistent basis. There will be few that can say they have had as much influence on matches as Willian. The Brazilian is approaching the end of his contract at Stamford Bridge, but the club will be desperate for him to stay on. Following the restart, the 31-year-old has contributed four goals and three assists across all competitions. During the win over Crystal Palace, he had three shots, made five key passes and completed four dribbles. It was an excellent creative display, as he registered two assists. In addition to his attacking quality, he completed two tackles and showed the work rate that has allowed him to become a mainstay under a host of Chelsea managers. In this form, he has to be seen as the key player for the visitors.

TEAM NEWS
John Fleck and David McGoldrick are both facing late fitness tests ahead of the weekend. John Lundstram is back, but he may struggle to oust Ben Osborn from the starting eleven.

Billy Gilmour will be missing for the rest of the campaign. Mateo Kovacic could be back to start in midfield. N’Golo Kante and Fikayo Tomori are both expected to miss out.

VERDICT
This should be a great match, with both sides having the ability to take the three points. The midfield issues that Chelsea have could mean that they do struggle to dominate in central areas. Sheffield United have been very consistent during recent weeks and they have the physicality to take control of these zones. A score draw looks a good bet.

Sheffield United 1-1 Chelsea

Chelsea visits Sheffield United on Saturday afternoon with a chance to extend their lead over Leicester City and Manchester United and continue their push for one of the Champions League places.

Sheffield United are the darlings of this Premier League season, sitting in seventh place with a chance for European football next season through the Europa League.

While I don’t see a ton of value in either the spread, moneylines, or total, I do have a prop bet that sticks out to me given recent trends by both teams. Chelsea, led by Christian Pulisic’s and Olivier Giroud’s goal-scoring form, have scored at least two goals in every game since the restart.

The Blues have struggled defending corners the entire season, conceding nine in total on 7.33 xGA. Goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga is statistically the league’s second-worst keeper based on post-shot expected goals, which measures the chances of a shot going in based on where it was taken from and where it ended up on target.

Chelsea’s road defensive woes are well-documented at this point, as only six teams have conceded more goals (30) away from home in the 2019-20 season.

While Chelsea manager Frank Lampard loves to play attacking, high-press football, the Blues haven’t been sound at all in the midfield or the backline all season. He’s tinkered with the center back pairing, even benched Kepa briefly, but the numbers haven’t improved.

Tactically, I’m expecting this to be a match where Chelsea are on the front foot and attacking, but are left vulnerable on the counter. Few teams have been more efficient with their limited scoring opportunities then Sheffield United this season, and it will only take one Kepa error or one good attacking move to get Sheffield on the board and win the bet.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Contrast Chelsea’s set piece defensive woes with Sheffield’s strength, there is a potential nightmare for the Blues’ defense. Sheffield has scored seven goals off corners this season, including a 94th minute winner to beat Wolves in the midweek.

Sheffield have conceded goals in four of their six matches since the restart and allowed at least one xG in four of those matches as well. They’ve conceded more “big scoring chances” (11) than any team in the PL since the restart, and Chelsea rank fifth in the same metric, per InfoGol.

I’m expecting a wide-open match where both teams need to get all three points, thus the goals will come. I’ll back both teams to score at slightly worse odds than even money.