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StatFox John
Administrator

Registered: Jul 2005
Posts: 1421

Everyone has many different ways to use the information on The FoxSheets, but as a general idea what I do is first find a game that looks like a significant edge for one side on the simulator and on the power line, then look at the complete FoxSheet for that game and read through the SuperSituations and PowerTrends, paying particular attention to the current season trends.

The Star Rating system helps to bring the more relevant situations and trends to the top, so I rarely look at anything under three stars.

After taking in all the information, then I just let my mind naturally choose a side based on how I think the previous situations will apply to the current Matchup. The Head-Head section helps a lot here too.

I try not to look at a game first with a Favorite or Dog approach because the true power of The FoxSheets is when you can use them to better understand how each team's strengths and weaknesses will affect the outcome of the game as it relates to the Line.

You could also use a mechanical system of adding up the total stars for and against, following only edge stars on the estimator or Power Line, or some combination of many factors, but over time I think it is much more useful to let your brain take in all the information and then do it's own calculations for the strength of any particular play.

At first it looks like an over-whelming amount of information to try and digest for each game, but you'll feel differently after a week or so of using this approach. With a little practice The FoxSheets will become a valuable source of highly condensed information that help you to zero in on the Matchups that have the best edge against a line -- often a line that may have been set more based on public opinion than on actual situational statistics.

In other words you don't need to find out who you think will win (and by how much) in every Matchup of the day. It is much better to quickly zero in on only 2-3 games that may have a line that doesn't reflect the true Matchup based on past results.

Old Post 03-28-09 03:54 PM
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StatFox John
Administrator

Registered: Jul 2005
Posts: 1421

One other thing. Sometimes there will be what seems to be conflicting information between the different sections of The FoxSheets. Especially when you get two very similar teams playing each other and they are relatively equal in strength. The first thing I do in that situation is look again at the PowerLine and the strength of schedule numbers compared to the current line. If they are too close then it is probably time to look for a different Matchup -- one that has a better edge.

Old Post 03-28-09 04:12 PM
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Alvan9
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2003
Posts: 1681

Yea there is alot of conflicting information, but when I see them, they are easier to throw out.

Here is a result of that in the FoxSheets Power Searches; Top Rated Team ATS Trends - (nba). This was the top two and three today.


Sunday, 03/29/2009 (717) PHOENIX vs. (718) SACRAMENTO
Favoring: SACRAMENTO against the spread.
PHOENIX is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 103.6, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 4*)
View Entire FoxSheet for this game.

Sunday, 03/29/2009 (717) PHOENIX vs. (718) SACRAMENTO
Favoring: PHOENIX against the spread.
PHOENIX is 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 124.5, OPPONENT 108.2 - (Rating = 4*)
View Entire FoxSheet for this game.


This just made the pick for that game that much easier. Just threw this game out completly.

Old Post 03-29-09 07:31 PM
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diamondjim
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6974

also with alvans example in mind above

If the total was 235 you would be inclined to use the bottom Tend or Supersituation.




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Location : Boston, Mass

Old Post 05-15-09 02:18 AM
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schaapattack


Registered: May 2009
Posts: 9

Bump

Old Post 02-02-11 08:55 AM
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