Without further ado, here are ten easy tips to help ensure you turn a profit this MLB season.

1. Avoid Big Favorites
Oddsmakers know that recreational bettors love betting favorites. As a result, they’ll capitalize on public bias and shade their lines accordingly. This means that popular teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers will always be overpriced because Average Joes will bet on them regardless of whether they’re -150, -180 or -200.

We found that favorites -150 or more have gone 6819-3954 (63.3%) since 2005. On the surface that record seems impressive. However, because you’re always laying a huge minus number, you actually end up in the red (-187.34 units). When a favorite wins, your payout is small. But when they lose, you get crushed. Simply put, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

2. Take Advantage of Plus-Money Underdogs
In order to make money betting football and basketball, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) in order to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid big favorites and consistently take plus-money dogs (+120, +150, +170) they can win at a sub-50% clip but still finish the year with positive units won. When dogs lose, you only lose what you risked. But when they win, you enjoy valuable plus-money payouts.

3. Bet Against the Public
For years, we’ve detailed the value of betting against the public. We like to go contrarian because, more often than not, the public loses. The Average Joe bets based on his gut instinct. He always wants to bet favorites, home teams, popular franchises and teams with star players. He’s also a victim of recency bias. If a team looked great last game, he’ll bet it. If it looked awful, he’ll fade it. By going contrarian, we are able to capitalize on public bias and take advantage of artificially inflated numbers. As an added bonus, we also place ourselves on the side of the books. We all know the house always wins.

4. Follow Reverse Line Movement
Baseball isn’t just about taking plus money dogs and blindly going contrarian. You also want to be on the sharp side of every game (with the professional bettors who have a long track record of success). One of the best ways to locate sharp action is to follow Reverse Line Movement (RLM): when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages.

For example: say the Cubs open -150 against the Brewers (+130). Chicago is getting 75% of moneyline bets, but you see the Cubs fall from -150 to -135, while the Brewers move from +130 to +115. Why would the books drop the line to give public Cubs bettors a better number? Because sharp action came in on the Brewers. Even though Milwaukee is only getting 25% of bets, the line moved in their favor.

Since 2005, MLB teams (both dogs and favorites) getting less than 35% moneyline bets with RLM of at least one cent have gone 3319-4139 (44.5%), +89.24 units won.

If you raise the RLM to 10 cents or more, it gets even better. A $100 bettor would have earned over $12,000 following this system since 2005.

5. Focus on Divisional Dogs
Because teams within the division play each other 19 times per year, it breeds familiarity and levels the playing field, which inevitably benefits the dog. Since 2005, dogs in divisional games (think Red Sox vs Yankees) have produced +83.72 units, while dogs outside the division have lost an astounding -574.62 units.

Divisional dogs perform even better if we layer in two more filters. First, road teams (the public overvalues home-field advantage, creating inflated value on visitors). Second, a high total (8.5 or more). With more runs expected to be scored, it leads to more variance, aiding the underdog. This system has produced an incredible +177.73 units since 2005.

If we go one step further and layer in contrarian value (teams less than 30% in heavily bet games) as well as reverse line movement (sharp action), the win rate increases from 43.7% to 45.9% and the ROI (return on investment) increases from 3.1% to 10.8%.

6. Know the Weather
While the majority of bets are placed on the moneyline, bettors can still find value betting on totals. One big factor to consider before placing a total wager: the weather, specifically wind. Using Bet Labs, we’ve found that when the wind is blowing in at 5 MPH or more the under has gone 764-613 (55.5%), +99.9 units won, 6.9% ROI. This under edge becomes even more pronounced in day games at Wrigley Field: 153-87 (63.8%), +57.91 units won, 23.2% ROI.

When the wind blows in, it can turn home runs into warning track outs, benefiting unders. Conversely, when it blows out, it can turn fly balls into homers and benefit overs. Since 2005, when the wind is blowing out at 8 MPH or more the Over has gone 1007-889 (53.1%), +80.42 units won, 4% ROI.

Most lopsided games

85% on Ducks -175 vs. COL
83% on Cubs -216 at MIA
82% on Astros -159 at TEX
75% on Dodgers -180 vs. SF
74% on Indians -127 at SEA

i learned many moons ago to NEVER lay more than 125 on any sporting event.

Thank you Mike for posting the lopsided games saved me

Chicago Cubs (-135) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+122) | O/U: 9
8:10 p.m. ET
Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 1.50 ERA) vs. Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

The Right Stuff: Brandon Woodruff came along nicely as a prospect for the Brewers and has the look of a solid back-end of the rotation pitcher. In 2016, Woodruff put together a stellar campaign at Double-A Biloxi, pitching to a 3.01 ERA, 2.79 xFIP and 9.82 K/9 in 113.2 innings. He backed that up with a decent campaign at Triple-A Colorado Springs, who play in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, and earned himself a call-up to the show. The former 11th-round pick didn’t set the world on fire in his first taste of Major League action, mainly because he wasn’t striking out as many batters as he did in the Minors, but he kept his walk-rate in check. If Woodruff can smooth out his mechanics, which in turn will limit his mistakes, he’s got the stuff that can play and at times, dominate.

Trend To Know: In Kyle Hendricks’ career as a starter he is 53-29-18 (64.6%) on the first five innings moneyline in the regular season. However, almost all of that damage has come at home compared to the road:

Hendricks’ First Five Innings ML Career

Home 32-9-8 (78%) +11.7 units
Road 21-20-10 (51.2%) -3.2 units

Kyle Hendricks doesn't let us down on the F5
GL

Meanwhile, the 2017 baseball season was not that much different than any other baseball season. The Dodgers had the best record in the majors at 104-58 (64.2%). The two worst team in the majors were the SF Giants and Detroit Tigers at 64-98 (39.5%). These records are nowhere close to the best and worst records of any other major betting sport.

While it seems like an obvious point, it is often overlooked that the worst team in baseball still wins at a percentage well in excess of the worst team in any sport. Taking it a step further, based on last season's numbers, the worst team in baseball won almost 2 out of every 5 games, while the best team in baseball won slightly more than 3 out of every 5 games. Let's face it, in NCAAB, if you put Virginia up against Chicago State 100 times this season, Virginia would easily win 90% of the time and probably close to 100%. If the New England Patriots played the Browns 10 times, they'd easily win 9 on average. It's nothing like that in baseball.

In 2017, the White Sox (67-95) beat the Astros (101-61) 4 out of 6 times (66.7%). Detroit (64-98) beat Boston (93-69) 4 out of 7. Oakland (75-87) beat Boston (93-69) 4 out of 7, beat Cleveland (102-60) 5 out of 7 and beat the Yankees (91-71) 4 out of 7 but lost 5 out of 7 to Toronto (76-86) and 5 out of 7 to Tampa (80-82). Tough to explain how the Dodgers (104-58) were 17-21 against the Diamondbacks and Colorado, yet 87-36 against the rest of the majors. Typically, any MLB team can beat any other MLB on any given day. It is unlike that in any other sport.

The point can also be highlighted by looking at pitchers. If I asked you to ride one of these pitchers last season by betting on them in every start, who would you pick: Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish or Parker Bidwell? Hardly anyone would take Parker Bidwell. Meanwhile Bidwell was a major league best +18.0 units, while Bumgarner was a major league worst -14.6 units and Darvish was -13.0 units. The average bettor certainly feels more secure backing Bumgarner or Darvish but if you bet $100 on every Parker Bidwell start you would have won $1,800 last year and if you bet $100 on every Bumgarner start last season you would have lost $1,460; and on every Darvish start, you would have lost $1,300.

If before last season I had given you two groups to choose from to invest in from a betting perspective, whom would you have chosen?

Group 1: Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Sonny Gray, JA Happ, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta and Rick Porcello

Group 2: Parker Bidwell, CC Sabathia, Jason Vargas, Jhouls Chacin, Jose Urena, Adam Wainwright, German Marquez and Kyle Gibson

I am sure at least 9 out of 10 people would have chosen Group 1.

Let’s look at the results:

Name/Team Rec/Profit (unit)
Bumgarner/4-13/-14.6
Darvish/16-19/-13.0
Moore/10-21/-11.9
Gray/13-16/-7.2
Happ/11-14/-5.6
Hendricks/14-13/-4.8
Arrieta/17-15/-4.5
Porcello/16-18/-8.2
Total/101-119/-69.8

Bidwell/17-3/+18.0
Sabathia/21-10/+12.4
Vargas/20-12/+11.0
Chacin/18-14/+10.0
Urena/17-11/+7.0
Wainwright/15-8/+6.5
Marquez/17-12/+8.8
Gibson/18-11/+8.9
Total/143-81/+82.6

The difference between Group 1 and Group 2 in 2017 was 152.4 units. A $100 bettor would have been $15,240 better off choosing Group 2 over Group 1!!!!!!

To put things into perspective, try and think about the biggest one game baseball mismatch of the season. My guess is last season it was close to -360 maybe in a game like Clayton Kershaw at home against the Giants. How big of a mismatch is it really? We see some really big mismatches in other sports. In the first round of the NCAA tournament two weeks ago, Villanova was a 22.5 point favorite over Radford. Now that's a mismatch. It's such a huge mismatch, you probably couldn’t even find a moneyline anywhere on the game. Maybe it was in the range of -8000 to -12000. So is the biggest mismatch of the season in baseball really that much of a mismatch when you compare it to other sports? To put things even more into perspective, the biggest baseball mismatch of the season is the equivalent of the NCAA tournament game in Round 2 where Texas A&M upset North Carolina as a 7 point underdog. Think about it. That win by Texas A&M was a bigger upset than any baseball upset you will see all season.

To sum it up, too many baseball bettors shy away from dogs like they can't win when it is clear that any given underdog can beat any favorite on any given day at a rate unlike every other sport. Until people get comfortable in baseball playing underdogs on a regular basis and seeking out value, there is no chance to win betting baseball in the long run.

Too many people get caught up in what a handicapper's winning percentage is in baseball and to me that just further explains to me that people do not understand betting baseball, as successful baseball handicapping is not a function of winning percentage. I would go so far as to say that if any average baseball handicapper had a gun to his head and was asked to hit 60% over the course of the season, he probably could. Simply, if a baseball bettor took every favorite of 200 or greater, he would probably hit 60%. The problem is even you played all favorites with the average bet being a favorite of -200, at 60%, over 100 plays at $100 each, you would lose $2000. At an average of -200, a handicapper would need to hit 67% to even show a negligible profit. Don't forget, the best team in baseball last season only hit at a 61.7% clip.

Taken a step further, a handicapper playing an average of -150 could hit 60%, but at 60% (a better % than the best MLB team last season) he would only breakeven.

Conversely, a handicapper playing an average of +110 would only need to hit at a rate of 47.7% to breakeven. So I ask you, who is the better baseball handicapper, the 60% capper playing an average of -150 or the 48% capper playing at an average of +110? The answer is the 48% capper as he shows a profit while the 60% capper above breakeven. The point I am driving home is winning percentage in baseball is less significant than other factors.

For those of you who follow me, you are aware I play more games than almost any other handicapper. Lord knows there were countless haters who would state that I played too many games and couldn't be successful. I respect they are entitled to their opinion, but based upon my baseball model, I won +0.12 units per game played, so my overall profit increased by an average of 0.12 units with each game I played. That is not to say I should bet every game, but based upon my handicapping techniques, the more games that fit my personal criteria, the more profitable I was.

Several years ago, I played 1,172 games one season and finished with a record of 626-546 (53.4%) and made a profit of +140.86 units. Let's say this season I play 1000 games at an average of +110 (slightly higher than last year). Here is what I can expect if you assume that I flat bet every game at the same amount:

Win % Unit Profit
47.7 Even
48% +8 units
49% +29 units
50% +50 units
51% +71 units
52% +92 units
53% +113 units
54% +134 units

I won't use anything above 54% because it just won't happen. That season I hit over 53.4% and as such, had an outstanding season. Even if I don't reach that standard, at 50%, I will still make a handsome profit.

REDUCED JUICE BOOKS ARE IMPORTANT TO USE.

It is scary to think that some baseball bettors actually play through books that offer 20 cent lines. Simply put, that is suicide. Here is a comparison of what I would expect if I averaged +110 for the season at a reduced shop like Matchbook (which is now somewhat limited to US players), compared to a 10 cent line which would cost me five cents per play overall (meaning I would average +105, thus the +105 column below), compared to a 20 cent line which would cost me 10 cents per play on average (meaning I would average +100, thus the +100 column below):

Win % +110 +105 +100
47.7 Even -22.15u -46u
48% +8 units -16u -40u
49% +29 units +4.5u -20u
50% +50 units +25u EVEN
51% +71 units +45.5u +20u
52% +92 units +66u +40u
53% +113 units +86.5u +60u
54% +134 units +107u +80u

By using a reduced juice shop compared to 20 cent shops, if I hit 50%, I earn 50 units on the season in my example, but at the 10 cent store, I would earn 25 units and at the 20 cent store, I would breakeven. These are HUGE differences. I reviewed my numbers from 2007 and had I used a reduced juice book like Matchbook and averaged a savings of 5 cents per game (that is conservative as it is closer to 8% if you are a good shopper) then I would've earned an additional 39 units that season. Unfortunately, Matchbook is no longer available and finding anything better than a dime line is near impossible, but if you are playing a twenty-cent line, you have no shot to win!

The key to handicapping baseball is searching for value in relation to the line. It’s very similar to a horse race. Let say I give you a racing form for a 10 horse race today at Belmont Park and the only thing I delete from the racing form is the odds of each horse. After evaluating all ten horses, you will have a perception in your mind of which horse you think has the best chance to win and you will probably be able to rate the horses in your mind from most likely to least likely to win the race. Let’s say you like the #1 horse the best, the #2 horse second best and the #3 horse third best. Does this mean you should bet the #1 horse? ABSOLUTELY NOT! You need to evaluate your perceptions in relation to the betting line. Now let’s fill in the final factor in my fictitious horse race. The odds on the #1 horse is even money, the odds on the #2 horse is 2-1 and the odds on the #3 horse is 20-1. Now there’s no doubt that the #1 horse is the most likely to win the race, however in this analysis, you would be a fool to not bet the #3 horse. Based upon these odds, the #1 horse would have to win this race one out of every two times for you to breakeven. The #2 horse would have to win the race one out of every three times for you to breakeven while the #3 horse would only need to win the race one out of 21 times for you to breakeven. In my example, if you believe the #3 horse is the 3rd best horse in the race, then the horse you should bet on in this example is the #3 at 20-1 odds even though you feel the #1 is the most likely to win the race.

Similarly, a bet in baseball should not necessarily be a bet on who you think will win, but rather who you think will outperform the odds and provides the best value. The most common error I see in many baseball bettors is they first choose who they think will win rather than evaluating the line. How often have we all heard someone say something along the lines of, “I love the Nationals tomorrow with Scherzer and I am going to make a huge bet on them” before a line is even posted? What I am trying to state here is that there is no way to love any team until you know what the line is.

Take for example the Opening Day game with the SF at the Dodgers. It is Clayton Kershaw against Blach. There is no way to say which team I liked before the line came out. Depending on the line, I could invest in the Dodgers in certain circumstances or the Giants in others so it is clear my wager is not based upon who I think will necessarily win the game, but rather who based upon my handicapping, provides the best value. Said in a different way, I am shooting to determine which team I think linemakers and the general public are undervaluing based upon my techniques of handicapping. If the Dodgers open up at -200 in that game, I very well could have played the Dodgers. If the Dodgers opened up at -400, I could very well have invested in the Giants. At -270, it was pretty much correct in my opinion and was a no play. The line should determine who you bet and not your opinion on a team with no consideration of the line.

I like to think of each game I handicap as based upon my research and understanding of a particular line, if the two teams in question played 100 times under the same fact pattern, how many time (what %) do I think in my mind each team would win, particularly, how many time will the underdog win. Here are the win percentages that an underdog would need to win in order to breakeven at a particular underdog line:

%Win Breakeven Line
50% Even
48% +109
46% +118
44% +127
42% +138
40% +150
38% +163
36% +178
34% +194
32% +212

Mets won again last night and are now 11-1 for +9.13 units on the moneyline this season. Next best teams are....

DBacks 10-3, +8.26
Angels 12-3, +6.72
Braves 8-5, +5.7
Red Sox 11-2, +5.52
Pirates 9-4, +4.75

Nice underdog value on the Dbacks (+150) tonight in LA. Rich Hill had a 5.03 ERA in 4 starts vs the Dbacks last regular season — Dodgers lost 3 of the games.

Dbacks have won 10 straight regular season games vs LA and Dodgers are ranked 25th in runs scored this season.

With average wind speeds reaching as high as 22 miles per hour today, you’ll want to weigh the weather before making your baseball bets.

While it may not be the first thing you look for when betting a game, wind certainly matters.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, O/U 8.5
1:05 p.m. ET

Thanks to 11 mph winds blowing straight in from center, this afternoon’s game at Fenway has seen the largest impact from today’s wind, as the total has fallen a full run from its market-wide opener of 9.5.

Justin Verlander has now appeared in 14 games as an Astro. Houston has won 13 of these games.

The Astros are the biggest favorite of THE SEASON today at -340 hosting Bartolo Colon and the Rangers.

Rare sighting: public bettors are all over the Braves today as +161 underdogs (70% of bets).

Line movement has been toward the Cubs since opening though.

1st start: 58% of bets, -123
2nd start: 70% of bets, -180
Today: 75% of bets, -240

Bettors are falling in love with Ohtani

San Diego Padres (-121) vs. San Francisco Giants, Over 8
4:10 p.m. ET

Wiseguys have backed both a side and a total in this NL West matchup. The Padres have received 47% of bets to this point, but with some help from a reverse line move at The Greek, they’ve moved from -110 to -121.

Two bet signals have also been triggered on the over, which has held its opening number but has been juiced up to -123.

Chris Sale’s utter domination of the early parts of the regular season has continued into 2018. Throughout his career in March, April and May, Sale is 44-15 (74.6%) on the moneyline for +17.3 units. However, Sale is only 62-64 (49.2%) on the moneyline (-22 units) in June or later. When Sale faces an opponent outside of his own division in May or earlier, he is 23-5 (82.1%), but two of his five losses have come against the Athletics in Oakland.

make it three of six now
GL

57/43 wagers on the U
66/34 $ on the U

so why the juice flip ?

I guess Cashner gets hit hard

Through Thursday, the Nationals rank second-to-worst in the league against left-handers at .189. A lot is injury-driven. Don’t forget that Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon are all on the DL.

Jeremy Hellickson has started 198 games in his career, with the majority of his success coming on the East Coast. Hellickson is 76-68 on the moneyline when the game is played in the Eastern time zone (+7.5 units). But when he starts a game in any other time zone, his value completely disappears: He is 20-34 (37%) on the moneyline, for -11.2 units, including a 6-12 mark against NL West opponents