thought i'd get this started so we can all contribute nuggets as time progresses. odd trends , injury updates , local news others aren't privy to ect.

lets have a great bowl $ea$on !!!

Dec. 16

Celebration Bowl
Grambling vs. North Carolina A&T
Noon, ABC
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Troy vs. North Texas
1 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans

AutoNation Cure Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
2:30 p.m., CBSSN
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida

Las Vegas Bowl
No. 25 Boise State vs. Oregon
3:30 p.m., ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium
Las Vegas

Dec. 19

Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Akron vs. Florida Atlantic
7 p.m., ESPN
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, Florida

Dec. 20

DXL Frisco Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs. SMU
8 p.m., ESPN
Toyota Stadium
Frisco, Texas

Dec. 21

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
Temple vs. Florida International
8 p.m., ESPN
Tropicana Field
St. Petersburg, Florida

Dec. 22

Bahamas Bowl
UAB vs. Ohio
12:30 p.m., ESPN
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium
Nassau, Bahamas

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Wyoming
4 p.m., ESPN
Lyle Smith Field at Albertsons Stadium
Boise, Idaho

Dec. 23

Birmingham Bowl
Texas Tech vs. South Florida
Noon, ESPN
Legion Field
Birmingham, Alabama

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
San Diego State vs. Army
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, Texas


Dollar General Bowl
Appalachian State vs. Toledo
7 p.m., ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium
Mobile, Alabama

Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl
Fresno State vs. Houston
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Hawaiian Tel Federal Credit Union Field at Aloha Stadium
Honolulu

Dec. 26

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Utah vs. West Virginia
1:30 p.m., ESPN
Cotton Bowl
Dallas

Quick Lane Bowl
Duke vs. Northern Illinois
5:15 p.m., ESPN
Ford Field
Detroit

Cactus Bowl
Kansas State vs. UCLA
9 p.m., ESPN
Chase Field
Phoenix

Dec. 27

Walk-On's Independence Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Florida State
1:30 p.m., ESPN
Independence Stadium
Shreveport, Louisiana

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Iowa vs. Boston College
5:15 p.m., ESPN
Yankee Stadium
New York

Foster Farms Bowl
Arizona vs. Purdue
8:30 p.m., FOX
Levi's Stadium
Santa Clara, California

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Texas vs. Missouri
9 p.m., ESPN
NRG Stadium
Houston

Dec. 28

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Virginia vs. Navy
1:30 p.m. ESPN
Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Annapolis, Maryland

Camping World Bowl
No. 22 Virginia Tech vs. No. 19 Oklahoma State
5:15 p.m., ESPN
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida

Valero Alamo Bowl
No. 13 Stanford vs. No. 15 TCU
9 p.m., ESPN
Alamodome
San Antonio, Texas

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
No. 18 Washington State vs. No. 16 Michigan State
9 p.m., FOX
SDCCU Stadium
San Diego

Dec. 29

Belk Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
1 p.m. ESPN
Bank of America Stadium
Charlotte, North Carolina

Hyundai Sun Bowl
No. 24 NC State vs. Arizona State
3 p.m., CBS
Sun Bowl
El Paso, Texas

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. No. 21 Northwestern
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Nissan Stadium
Nashville, Tennessee

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Utah State vs. New Mexico State
5:30 p.m., CBSSN
Arizona Stadium
Tucson, Arizona

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 8 USC vs. No. 5 Ohio State
8:30 p.m., ESPN
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, Texas

Dec. 30

TaxSlayer Bowl
Louisville vs. No. 23 Mississippi State
Noon, ESPN
EverBank Field
Jacksonville, Florida


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs. No. 20 Memphis
12:30 p.m., ABC
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, Tennessee

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
No. 11 Washington vs. No. 9 Penn State
4 p.m., ESPN
University of Phoenix Stadium
Glendale, Arizona

Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Wisconsin
8 p.m., ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, Florida

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Michigan vs. South Carolina
Noon, ESPN2
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, Florida

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 12 UCF vs. No. 7 Auburn
12:30 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta

Citrus Bowl Presented by Overton's
No. 14 Notre Dame vs. No. 17 LSU
1 p.m., ABC
Camping World Stadium
Orlando, Florida

Jan. 1

College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual
No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Oklahoma
5 p.m., ESPN
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, California

College Football Playoff at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Clemson
8:45 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans

Jan. 8

College Football Playoff National Championship Presented By AT&T
8 p.m. ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta

Best Defense Bowl System
**** are top plays

troy****
w.ky
boi st
marsh****
mtsu
fau
lou tech****
tem
oh
wyo
s.fla****
sd st
app st
fres st
utah****
n.ill
ks st
s.miss
ia
tex
pur
mich st
va
va tech
tcu
tex a&m
nc st
n,west
nm st
oh st
miss st
ia st****
wash
wis
mich
aub****
lsu
ga
ala

Celebration Bowl : n texas wr j guyton, questionable / concussion
48 for 764 and 9 td's .....

Autonation Bowl: w kentucky wr c luper, out
42 for 473 and 4 td's

Las Vegas Bowl:
Boise State
Alexander Mattison RB Ques Dec 16 - Leg
Riley Whimpey LB Ques Dec 16 - Upper Body
Jake Roh TE Ques Dec 16 - Foot

Marshall :
Malik Gant S Prob Sat - Undisclosed
Tyre Brady WR Prob Dec 16 - Undisclosed
Sandley Jean-Felix OL Ques Dec 16 - Undisclosed
Nyquan Harris DL Out indefinitely - Undisclosed
Aaron Dopson DL Out indefinitely - Undisclosed

nice job

Sharps have flagged these bowl games as early lines to keep an eye on.

Spread to bet now

Florida International (+7) vs. Temple

This line for the Gasparilla Bowl opened +8 and was quickly bet down to +7 before it even opened at some other major sportsbooks. Play it now before it dips below this key number. Florida International will be excited for this game after a 4-8 SU season last year. It is the Panthers' first bowl game in six years. They were a solid 8-4 SU this year and finished the regular season with back-to-back wins in which they scored 104 points combined on offense.

Temple will be less excited for this game after a mediocre 6-6 SU regular season. The Owls were 10-3 SU last year before losing their bowl game as a 12-point favorite. Temple was also 10-3 SU in the 2015 regular season when they lost by 15 points as a 2.5-point bowl favorite. The Owls were a weak offensive team this season, averaging just 24.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.6 ppg and 6.1 yppl).

Spread to bet now

Appalachian State (+7.5) vs. Toledo

This line for the Dollar General Bowl opened at +8 and was quickly bet down to +7.5. Play it now while it remains above the key number of +7. Appalachian State enters with solid offensive momentum as they scored 31 points or more in three of their final four regular season games. Overall, the Mountaineers averaged 33.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this year, while allowing just 21.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

Toledo also enters off three straight wins, but might be a little flat after winning the MAC championship game. Toledo probably was hoping for a better bowl bid after a solid 11-2 SU season. The Rockets were strong offensively this year, but weak on defense as they allowed 5.6 yards per play versus a schedule of weak offensive opponents that averaged just 5.3 yppl overall. Toledo's defense is now taking a substantial step-up in class. The Rockets lost last year, 31-28, versus Appalachian State in the Camellia Bowl.

Total to bet now

Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (52)

This total for the Autonation Cure Bowl has risen a couple points higher since opening. These early minor bowl games do have a tendency to be higher scoring, but that might not be the case in this game with two weak offensive teams. Georgia State averaged a paltry 19.7 points per game this season on just 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 26.4 ppg on 5.8 yppl). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky averaged just 26.2 points per game on only 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 29.7 ppg on 5.8 yppl).

Both offenses were particularly weak down the stretch. Western Kentucky scored 23 points or less in three of their final four regular season games. Georgia State scored only 10 points in each of their final two games. The Panthers have a 5-1 Under mark in their past six games overall. Last year, Georgia State managed just 16 total points in this same bowl game.

Ohio State gets the CFP consolation prize of what appears to be a perfect Rose Bowl matchup, except that it’s taking place in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Buckeyes (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS) knocked off previously unbeaten Wisconsin 27-21 in Saturday’s Big Ten championship game, covering as a 3-point favorite at neutral-site Lucas Oil Stadium.

Southern California is also 11-2 SU, but with one of the worst ATS marks in the nation at 3-9-1. The Trojans failed to cover in Saturday’s Pac-12 final, but got the needed SU win 31-28 over Stanford as a 3.5-point neutral-site fave at Levi’s Stadium.

Bookmaker.eu opened Ohio State -7 and has since gone down a tick to -6.5.

“Not a ton of early action from the sharps, but what we have seen has been on USC,” Cooley said. “Ohio State is clearly the better club, which is why we opened on the key number, but are you going to get a team that feels slighted and unmotivated, or one that has something to prove to the nation? That’s where the handicapping begins.”

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (1:00 p.m. ET)
Troy Trojans -7 over North Texas Mean Green

Former conference rivals clash in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl to kick off an always exciting college bowl season. A good two-thirds of the action is leaning towards Troy simply because they’re a better football team, but this line has wobbled by a half-point since opening, and it’s been leaning in the direction of North Texas.

That’s largely due to the fact that the Mean Green have an 8-5 against the spread (ATS) record, but any predictions on this game are based on the health of Jeffery Wilson. The explosive running-back for North Texas was injured and is unlikely to play. If he does, there’s a chance that North Texas covers but Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers will play in his final game after four years as a starter so emotions will be high. By the way, Troy has one of the best defensive units at this level. They’re worth the gamble to open up your post season college football betting.

American Cure Bowl (2:30 p.m. ET)
Georgia State Panthers +6.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

You probably steered clear of these two teams all season because they’re not noteworthy and they were both obnoxiously terrible against the spread, combining for a record of 7-16 ATS. The difference is that the mojo in Georgia State is a little stronger after they put a 6-5 SU season on the board after being a veritable punching bag for much of their existence. Western Kentucky has fallen off the wagon since losing head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue. They went 11-3 SU last season and have gone just 6-6 SU this year, with a 3-9 ATS record to boot. In short, the Hilltoppers haven’t met expectation by any stretch. It would be a miracle if they started in the American Cure Bowl.

Las Vegas Bowl (3:30 p.m. ET)
Boise State Broncos +7.5 over Oregon Ducks

People who bet on the college football post season often know that Boise State is a bit of a bowl betting darling. They’re 7-3 SU when playing in a bowl game and are coming off a brilliant MWC Championship win over Fresno State. The problem with Oregon here is that people have the misconception that they’re still “Oregon”. There is also the worry that Willie Taggart’s sudden departure to coach FSU is going to kill any momentum that the Ducks limped in to this game with. With a strong line, and Boise State boasting a lethal defensive front, it’s not illogical to think that the Ducks will get shot out of the skies in this one.
--------------------------------------------------

GILDAN New Mexico Bowl (4:30 p.m. ET)
Marshall Thundering Herd +6.5 over Colorado State Rams

Marshall is a program on the way back after posting a 7-5 SU regular season that included an 8-4 ATS record. A lot of that was because the defence allowed just 19.2 points all season long. Colorado State has a definitive weapon in receiver Michael Gallup, but the Rams are a perennial underachiever that never seem to get better or worse. They’re an overrated program in my opinion and have also lost three straight bowl games, two of which have come under coach Mike Bobo.
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Raycom Media Camellia Bowl (8:00 p.m. ET)
Arkansas State Red Wolves -3.5 over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

There’s a lot of problems with betting on Middle Tennessee in the post season. For one, they haven’t won a bowl game in their last four tries, and have been blown out by an average of +15.8 points per game. The Red Wolves tout a ferocious front seven that is sack hungry, and their passing game ranked 6th in the nation with 341.2 yards per game. They also put up a Sun Belt leading 7-4 ATS record which is worth backing. Middle Tennessee always loves being average in these games, and that won’t get it done against a strong tier two program that is simply better on the field than their opponents.

History will tell you that the deeper you get into the bowl season, the lower-scoring the games tend to be. Teams have weeks upon weeks to study up on each other, and the end result is that the defenses are sometimes a bit ahead of the offenses.

The favorite/under parlay in the College Football Playoff games has been massive over the course of the last two years. Not only have all four of the favored teams won and covered their semifinal games in the last two seasons, but all four games have gone under the total as well.

Then again, the four losing teams in the semifinals these last two seasons combined to score just 24 points, so perhaps this shouldn't be surprising.

Fading the public is a smart strategy in bowl games because the influx of recreational money skews the lines. Unpopular underdogs are the best bet. Small underdogs (less than 7 points) getting little public support (<30% of bets) have gone 19-7 (73.1%) ATS.

There are nine games that match this system including Middle Tenn (+3.5) vs. Arkansas State and Marshall (+5.5) vs. Colorado State.

There's an easy 2-0 start

You're the best for doing this. Thank you!

bump

Betting against the public is a sharp bowl game strategy

These teams are getting <40% of bets
Akron
Ohio
Wyoming

NCAAF National Championship Lookahead Lines

Clemson -2 v Oklahoma
Clemson -3 v Georgia
Alabama -2.5 v Oklahoma
Alabama -3 (-120) v Georgia

Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl

Teams: Akron vs. Florida Atlantic
Location: Boca Raton
Date: December 19th, 7:00 PM EST

Current CW S&P+ Total
FAU -22.5 FAU -20 FAU -22.0 63.5


Notes: There was a lukewarm reception by Florida Atlantic when they were given a bowl in their home stadium. The Owls just hosted the Conference USA Championship Game in the same location, so it’s only natural the players feel robbed of a bowl travel experience. On the flip side, motivation should be high for Akron quarterback Kato Nelson, as he played in the 2015 Florida Class 5A High School Championship for Flanagan High School. Nelson’s family and friends will only have a short 38-mile trip to FAU Stadium.

Motivation or not, there is not much of a fight on paper in the advanced stats matchup between the Owls and Zips. Akron ranks outside of the top 100 in a number of S&P+ categories, including Offensive S&P+, Defensive Passing Success Rate, Adjusted Sack Rate (on both sides of the ball) and special teams (125th). The Zips are tasked with trying to stop a Florida Atlantic offense that ranks first in finishing drives, 15th in efficiency and 23rd in explosive plays. No matter how much of a motivational edge Akron has, this FAU offense could put up 40 points on its worst day with ease. If you plan to back Akron, consider waiting until kick for any steam or just playing it live.

Useless Trends

Florida Atlantic is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games
Akron is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games
FAU is 8-2 as a favorite in 2017, covering by a margin of 14.8 points