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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Premier League, Bundesliga, Weekday Soccer

let's get the week started !
GL

Old Post 12-12-17 01:08 AM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Last week got off to a great start with West Ham pulling off the upset as +630 underdogs over Chelsea. On Sunday we saw Man City extend their win streak to 14 games in the Premier League with a 2-1 win at Old Trafford, while other contenders like Liverpool and Arsenal both drew 1-1 to fall off the pace. With an 11-point lead at the top of the table, it’s highly unlikely that anyone will be catching Man City for the title this season. Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, title odds and value plays for Week 17.

Week 16 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+7.26 units)
Away 2 of 10 (-4.77 units)
Draw 3 of 10 (+2.68 units)

Season Results:
Home 74 of 160 (+6.41 units)
Away 47 of 160 (-22.04 units)
Draw 39 of 160 (-5.13 units)

Old Post 12-12-17 01:10 AM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Title Odds via Paddy Power:
Man City -2000 (46 points)
Man Utd +900 (35 points)
Chelsea +5000 (32 points)
Liverpool +5000 (30 points)
Arsenal +7000 (29 points)
Tottenham +10000 (28 points)
Burnley +200000 (28 points)

Old Post 12-12-17 01:10 AM
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msudogs
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As I mentioned last weekend, the Premier League schedule gets extremely hectic in the month of December. Matches for Week 17 will be played on Tuesday/Wednesday and Week 18 is right around the corner on Saturday/Sunday. The short layoff makes it difficult to really analyze the market since there hasn’t been a lot of line movement or public betting yet, but I do still think there’s value out there.

One match I’m legitimately excited about is Burnley hosting Stoke City. Burnley are a fascinating club and one of the favorites to be relegated before the season but currently sit tied for sixth in the league with 28 points. They also have an identical record at home as on the road (4 wins, 2 losses, 2 draws) despite scoring just six goals on their own turf. Obviously their defense has been extremely important to their success, giving up just 12 goals all season, but I can’t see this level of performance lasting much longer. This is especially critical for Tuesday since Stoke haven’t had a problem scoring away from home– their problem is letting in goals.

So what does this mean for bettors looking for value? Nearly 60% of public bettors are loading up on Burnley at a price of +134 but we’ve actually seen the line move away from them. It makes a lot of sense that the majority of casual bettors are backing the better team to win at home, but this will not be easy for Burnley and the market agrees. The O/U is really low at just 2 goals (with juice on the Over), and it’s hard to see anything but a 1-1 finish. The value in this game is fading Burnley and taking the Draw at +218 odds.

The other value play I really like this week is Crystal Palace +126 vs. Watford. Over the course of the season Crystal Palace should have scored a lot more than they have, but they’re rock-bottom in the Premier League table and have scored just 10 goals in 16 matches. By most metrics, they should be a mid-table team right now but their lack of finishing has absolutely crushed them. Look at their expected goals for their most recent match against Bournemouth which they tied 2-2:

Expected goals from chances created: Crystal Palace (4.45) vs. Bournemouth (0.70)

Crystal Palace even had a penalty kick in stoppage time with a chance to win but couldn’t put it in the back of the net. Now of course you’re thinking, why bet on a crap team to win? The simple answer is that they aren’t that bad, and they’re a really nice contrarian pick this weekend. Less than 10% of bettors are taking Crystal Palace even though their win expectancy is about 44% (+130 odds). The large majority of public bettors are taking Watford at a big price of +250, so fade the trendy underdog and take Crystal Palace +130 to win at home. Palace supporter Rebecca Lowe would be proud.

Old Post 12-12-17 01:12 AM
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msudogs
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Most Lopsided Action:
73% on Watford (+260)
45% on West Ham (+445)

Biggest Line Moves:
Huddersfield (+965 to +808) vs. Chelsea
Crystal Palace (+133 to +126) vs. Watford

Old Post 12-12-17 01:14 AM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

is today 50 cent corn dog day @ sonic ??

EPL:
345566955
Chelsea v Huddersfield U2.5 -119

345566956
Watford v Crystal Palace O2.5 -119

Germany:
345566957
Dortmund -153

345566958
Hamburger +162

Italy:
345566959
Genoa FC DRAW +223




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-12-17 02:09 PM
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eagleseye13
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Registered: Mar 2013
Posts: 1807

Watford +0.5
over 2.5

Chelsea -1




eagleseye13

"It doesn't matter who wins the game, it matters who covers"

2014 MLB Season Contest 2nd place +1985 (59-35-3)

Old Post 12-12-17 04:54 PM
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HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Following the Chelsea play




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 12-12-17 08:59 PM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

2-3

EPL:
345566955
Chelsea v Huddersfield U2.5 -119 ..........loss

345566956
Watford v Crystal Palace O2.5 -119 ......win (92nd min)

Germany:
345566957
Dortmund -153 ......................................win

345566958
Hamburger +162 ..........................loss

Italy:
345566959
Genoa FC DRAW +223................loss




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-13-17 12:01 AM
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msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

keep an eye on these two, will check back in

SOC [200073] TOTAL o3-110 (BOURNEMOUTH vrs MANCHESTER UNITED)
SOC [202461] TOTAL o3-115 (WERDER BREMEN vrs BAYER LEVERKUSEN)

Old Post 12-13-17 08:52 AM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

345642980
Manchester City -1.75 -114

345642981
FC Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 2.5 +101

345642982
Hannover 96 v Hertha BSC O2.5 -111

PARLAY WAGER
Newcastle United DRAW +215
Southampton FC DRAW +242




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-13-17 01:58 PM
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geg1951
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

3-1

345642980...........................................win
Manchester City -1.75 -114

345642981 ......................................win
FC Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 2.5 +101

345642982.............................................win
Hannover 96 v Hertha BSC O2.5 -111

PARLAY WAGER..............................Loss
Newcastle United DRAW +215
Southampton FC DRAW +242




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-14-17 12:23 AM
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geg1951
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

Germany

345801481
Monchengladbach -125

glta




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-15-17 03:50 PM
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eagleseye13
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Registered: Mar 2013
Posts: 1807

Wolves -0.5 +115




eagleseye13

"It doesn't matter who wins the game, it matters who covers"

2014 MLB Season Contest 2nd place +1985 (59-35-3)

Old Post 12-15-17 08:30 PM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

Monchengladbach -125 .....winner




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-15-17 10:26 PM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

EPL Saturday

PARLAY..... .25 tw 4.0

Manchester City DRAW +345
West Bromwich Albion DRAW +290




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-15-17 11:21 PM
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eagleseye13
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2013
Posts: 1807

Wolves -0.5 ........W +115




eagleseye13

"It doesn't matter who wins the game, it matters who covers"

2014 MLB Season Contest 2nd place +1985 (59-35-3)

Old Post 12-15-17 11:57 PM
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