let's keep the momentum going this weekend

Week 21 Results
Tottenham -294 vs. West Brom
Arsenal -206 at Swansea
Chelsea -119 at Leicester
Stoke +127 at Sunderland
West Ham +143 vs. Crystal Palace
Hull +201 vs. Bournemouth
Watford/Middlesbrough Draw +214
Man Utd/Liverpool Draw +241
Burnley +349 vs. Southampton
Everton +375 vs. Manchester City

Season Trends
Home: 102 wins of 210 (+21.10 units)
Away: 61 wins of 210 (-59.00 units)
Draw: 47 wins of 210 (-25.44 units)

Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points
Chelsea -160 (52)
Liverpool +650 (45)
Tottenham +700 (45)
Arsenal +1200 (44)
Man City +1500 (42)
Man Utd +2200 (40)

I won’t be looking towards road teams this week and instead will be eyeing two draws on the board with value. First off is the West Brom/Sunderland Draw at +291 odds. Both these squads are coming off bad losses last week with West Brom losing 4-0 at Tottenham and Sunderland losing 3-1 at home to Stoke City. These teams met back in October and drew 1-1 in a game that could have been won by either side. For this match, I’m particularly interested in the low public support on the draw (11% of tickets) and the overwhelming money support for West Brom (97% of dollars). This extremely lopsided betting should have moved West Brom considerably, but instead they’ve remained around -145 around the market. With juice on the Under 2.5 goals, I can see another 1-1 finish, so bet the draw at +291 odds.

The other value play for this weekend will be the Crystal Palace/Everton Draw +245. Everton are riding a high right now and seem to be coming into form, but that’s what scares me a bit. They’re only +135 against an inferior Crystal Palace squad who haven’t won in the league since early December. Everton are also getting over 90% of tickets so far, an absurdly high number, especially since the odds of them winning are at just 43%.

I understand why public bettors are jumping on Everton, but the line has barely moved since opening and less than 5% of tickets are currently on the draw. That’s where I’ll be investing my money this weekend, so grab the Crystal Palace/Everton Draw at +245 or higher odds.

Most Lopsided Around Market: 73% on Everton (+135), 72% on West Ham (+233), 68% on Tottenham (+275)

Biggest Line Moves at CRIS: Southampton (-110 to -120), Crystal Palace (+224 to +213), Liverpool (-400 to -450),

On January 21st, Liverpool welcome Swansea City to Anfield. New Swansea manager Paul Clement underwent a baptism by fire against Arsenal in his first Premier League match and it won’t get any easier away to Liverpool.

Liverpool have had a tough start to 2017, winning their first game in the calendar year on their fifth attempt midweek away to Plymouth. Still, the Reds lie third in the table on goal difference and will look to get back to their winning ways against a vulnerable Swansea City.

Clement faced a difficult test in his first Premier League match at home against Arsenal. After losing that match 4-0, he has to take his team to Anfield, and Liverpool are yet to lose at home this season, while Swansea have only won two of 10 away games. If Swansea are to survive relegation they’ll need to start picking up points soon, but points will be very tough to come by at Anfield.

TEAM NEWS

After missing out against Manchester United, Nathaniel Clyne has a chance to be fit against Swansea, according to Physioroom.com. Danny Ings and Marko Grujic however are set to miss out on Saturday, according to Physioroom.com.
PREDICTION

It’s hard to see any result that’s not a Liverpool win from this match. The Reds are clearly the better team, Swansea have been in a tailspin for months, and Liverpool are at home. Jurgen Klopp’s men should win this one by a wide margin.

Prediction: 4-1 Liverpool

At this stage of the season, this match will be more important for the home side than it is for Tottenham. The visitors have been in spectacular form, which has seen them climb to second in the table and they currently look to be the biggest threat to Chelsea. On the other hand, Manchester City haven’t been convincing in recent weeks and have fallen out of the Champions League places. There are many doubting Pep Guardiola, especially in terms of his defensive coaching, but this was always going to be his most difficult job and he deserves time to get it right. That said, it is imperative that he qualifies for the Champions League next season or the rebuild will take significantly longer.

The home side haven’t been awful and there are signs that they could become a very good team under Guardiola, but they have struggled to keep up with the pace set by Chelsea. Last weekend was one of the worst defeats of the club’s recent history as they were thrashed 4-0 by an Everton side that is in transition. Although Everton were excellent finishers on the day, City’s defence wasn’t good enough and it is difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet against an in-form Tottenham. Ideally, they need to win this weekend and to do so, they will need to be a lot better than they have been recently.

Tottenham have won their last six matches, which is the longest winning streak of any team in the Premier League. Their defence has always been impressive, having conceded the fewest of any team this season (14). However, their attack had been a concern, until recently. During their six-match winning run, Spurs have scored 19 goals, which averages out at just over three per game. The change in formation has freed both Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli, while last weekend Harry Kane returned to scoring ways with a hat-trick. They will be heading into this weekend as the favourites to win this match.

In the previous meeting between the two sides this season, Tottenham delivered one of their best performances of the campaign and ended up on the right side of a 2-0 scoreline. They managed to beat City without Harry Kane and this match underlined the impressive tactical mind of Mauricio Pochettino. A goal from Dele Alli and an own goal from Aleksandar Kolarov gave Tottenham the points on that occasion. Spurs also managed to win the corresponding fixture from last season, thanks to goals from Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen. Manchester City’s did get on the score-sheet, with Kelechi Iheanacho finding the back of the net for the home side.

INTERESTING STATS

Last weekend’s 4-0 defeat to Everton was the heaviest league defeat that Pep Guardiola has suffered in his managerial career.

VERDICT

This is a difficult match to predict, as Tottenham are the favourites going into the weekend, but it would be foolish to back against Pep Guardiola pulling out a huge result. This is a man that is seen as one of the finest football managers in the world and although he has had a rough period, he will surely turn it around at some point and slowly develop Manchester City into a very good team. I will hedge my bets and predict a draw for this match. I think both teams will score, but neither will have enough to take the three points. A draw wouldn’t be the worse result for either side, but it could be devastating if City were to lose.

BetShare
EPL LFCvSwans

Spread
LFC (-2) 70%
Swans (+2) 30%

ML
Liverpool 57%
Swansea 22%
Draw 21%

Tot (3 & 3.5)
Ov 78%
Un 22%

Dortmund/Werner Bremen O 3

Manchester United, undefeated in 16 matches in all competitions, will take a trip to the Bet365 Stadium to play Stoke City over the weekend.

After a prolonged series of ups and downs (mostly downs), Manchester United seem to be improving under Jose Mourinho. Despite a significant improvement in form, the Red Devils remain sixth in the league table, right below Manchester City. Their draw with Liverpool ended their run of seven straight league victories, but United are finding form and the signs are positive.

On the other hand, Stoke has been facing a difficult season of sorts. They sit ninth in the league and might be looking to get lucky against Mourinho’s side at their home stadium.
MANCHESTER UNITED

With no fresh injury problems, Mourinho is sure to go with a similar side. Juan Mata could come back in for either Anthony Martial or Henrikh Mkhitaryan, whilst Luke Shaw is short of match fitness.

STOKE CITY

Mame Biram Diouf and Wilfried Bony are both at the Africa Cup of Nations so neither will play the game this weekend. Jack Butland is a long-term absentee and Jonathan Walters is out too. Bojan Krkic has revealed his desire to leave, and hence will be unlikely to feature.


PREDICTION

Although United have been consistent recently, there is a sense that they could suffer a shock result. If United are able to absorb any nasty shocks that crop up, the match should end in a fairly easy 2-0 victory for Manchester United.

going with the 2 draws & hoping for a split similar to last week

West Brom/Sunderland +310
Crystal Palace/Everton +240

Crystal Palace/Everton U 2'

BetShare
EPL SCFCvMUFC

Spread
SCFC (+1) 58%
MUFC (-1) 42%

ML
Stoke 35%
Man U 44%
Draw 21%

Tot (2.5)
Ov 57%
Un 43%

Dortmund/Werner Bremen O 3.........P

if anyone else was watching, you then know how many chances there were for a goal, similar to 10 chances from the 5 for a TD & coming up empty

on the edge of the chair with this Crystal Palace/Everton match

Crystal Palace/Everton U 2'.........W

this covers the heart breaking loss on the draw here

Man City (+115) getting just 12% of bets at Pinnacle

Burnley/Arsenal O 3

now that was an exciting PUSH

Burnley/Arsenal O 3............P

Hull City/Chelsea O 3