feel free to chime in here

Do we really know how good the New England defense is? The Pats have allowed the fewest points in the league per game at 15.6. Sure looks like a defensive powerhouse, in an NFL era of scoring.

But how about these facts, which are rather shocking:

Here are the offensive points per game rank of the New England opponents:

Remember 32 is the worst:

32 LA Rams
31 Cleveland
30 NY Jets
30 NY Jets
29 Houston
29 Houston
27 San Francisco
24 Cincinnati
22 Denver
21 Baltimore
18 Seattle
17 Miami
17 Miami
11 Pittsburgh
10 Buffalo
10 Buffalo
6 Arizona

So they had 7 of 17 games vs the 5 worst offenses in the league (41.1% of their entire schedule)

They had 10 of their 17 games vs the bottom 1/3 of all offenses or 58.8% of their schedule

They had 13 of their 17 games vs the bottom 50% of all offenses or 76.4% of their schedule.

They faced just 1 team in the top 9, and that was week 1, so in their last 16 games, they have not faced an offense inside the top 10 in points scored per game.

They played 5 games with a team that did not have their starting QB, including their game vs Pittsburgh.

NE faced just 7 offenses this season that ranked in points per game at #18 or higher. here is a look at those games, and how many yards per play they averaged vs NE:

6 Arizona 6.1
17 Miami 7.5 (with starting QB)
10 Buffalo 5.3
11 Pitt 5.4 (without starting QB)
10 Buffalo 5.8
18 Seattle 7.0
17 Miami 4.9 (without starting QB)

So if you take away the 2 games when the opponent did not have their starting QB the remaining 5 teams averaged 6.34 yards per play against the vaunted NE defense.

To put that in perspective the high powered offense of Atlanta generates 6.9, and GB generates 6.0

So if you take the average of GB and Atlanta of 6.45 compare that to NE's 6.34, and they have allowed elite offensive numbers to teams that would have an average rank of 12.2. Now consider Pittsburgh ranks at #11 (comparable to the best group of teams NE has faced all season), and those teams put up GB and ATL style yards per play against them.

Remember this is a #1 ranked defense in points allowed, I think after reading this, IT'S A BUNCH OF GARBAGE! Sorry, NE fans, but the numbers spell it out.

So suppose this plays out. What does it do to the NE offense, if the opponent is having offensive success against them? They don't get the ball as much, or for as long as they are used to, and the defense which is used to going against very poor offenses, is having to defend a lot more than they are accustomed to.

So now if we take the facts, and put it up against history we see this:

Playoff teams in week 20 that have allowed 33 or less points in their last 3 games (typically comprised of bad offenses), are 4-10-1 ATS, and here is the biggie, allowing 26.3ppg. So where did the elite defense go?

Take it a step further, and since the 2004 playoffs, these teams are a shocking 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS, allowing 31.4ppg! Best defense? they have lost by an average of 14ppg.

Playoff teams that are on an ATS winning streak of 4 games or more, as well as a SU winning streak of 4 games or more, and playing to a line of less than -10, are:

0-11 ATS

This works against NE

They have had Ben,Bell, and Brown all playing in 11 games this season. Ben played in week 7 vs Miami and was injured, missed NE, and was still hobbling vs Baltimore, and not right. They were all not on the field, or injured in the case of Ben for 7 games.

ALL HEALTHY:

29-135 rushing
23-33-265 passing
62-400 all plays
10-1 SU
9-2 ATS
28.2ppg allow 17.0ppg
1 turnover per game
11 games

NOT ALL HEALTHY:

23-90 rushing
24-40-242 passing
63-332 all plays
3-4 SU
2-5 ATS
19.6ppg allowed 24ppg
1.4 turnovers
7 games

Steelers (13-5) @ Patriots (15-2)— Since 2004, #1 seeds are 5-0 in conference title games (4-1 vs spread) when facing a #3 or worse seed, who didn’t get first round bye. Home team won AFC title game nine of last ten years; Patriots are 2-3 in this game last five years- they’re 4-1 in AFC title games at home under Belichick. Steelers won their last nine games; they’re 1-1 as an underdog this year. Patriots are 7-2 at home, 7-2 as a home favorite; they’re 12-1 with Brady at QB, with only loss to the Seahawks. New England won last three series games, by 24-7-11 points; they beat Steelers 27-16 in Week 7, in game Roethlisberger sat out, making it mostly irrelevant. Pitt lost four of last five visits here, with last win in ’08. Under is 10-4 in last 14 Steeler games, 5-3 in Patriots’ last eight games.

Brady is 1-6 ATS in his last 7 Championship games

Road teams 77-51 ATS & #Steelers 6-4 ATS when Terry McAulay is head official

McAulay will be main ref for #PITvsNE buff.ly/2jV7DXM


Roethlisberger is 11-6 ATS in the #NFLPlayoffs

#Steelers 6 point dogs at NE

So what you are saying is that the Patriots are a lock!

Tom Brady: 19 TD, 0 INT vs Mike Tomlin's Steelers

His 127.5 passer rating vs Tomlin is his highest against any head coach (min 3 games)

Brady comp% 71.2
314.8 yrds per game
Never thrown less than two tds in each of those games

9-2 all time vs pitt all time
26tds-3ints

Steelers 5-3 on the road this season
Wins= cle,ind,buf,cin,was(week1)
Losses=bal,phi,mia

Ben roethlisberger on the road

9tds 8int
Comp%59.4
78.4 pass rating

the pats success has always been to neutralize a teams best weapon. i think pitts has too many weapons to effectively do that. bell, brown, ben and all those young receivers. pats o-line did not impress me vs hou.....i LOVE pitts here and took them at +6.
i figure whoever has the ball last will win the gb/atl game. should be 2 terrific games tomorrow.

I guess when it comes down to it i trust the better coach at home with the better qb vs a team that plays significantly worse on the road and has a history of performing poorly against this team

Hoping to get under 6 by game time but will still fire under 7

Good luck all

You know who I'm taking.Pats by 13 glta.

Steelers @ Patriots -6 (-105), 50.5: Tickets 3-2 in favor Patriots, but money is 2-1 in favor of Steelers at MGM Race Sports Book

here is something simple:

Play against a team that has a scoring margin (avg margin of victory in all games) of greater than 11.5ppg from week 19 out:

6-23 ATS goes against NE (reason: over-priced because public loves the big teams).

here is a playoff gauge that hs a lot of plays, and makes sense

Play on an NFL playoff team (pre Super Bowl), if:

Their (yards per pass attempt - their opponents yards per passing attempt) - their opponents yards per passing attempt-their opponent's opponent yards per pass attempt)>0

In other words the team that nets out (offense, defense) as the better team from the line of scrimmage in passing yards per attempt on both sides of the ball are:

93-59-4 ATS 61.2%

The New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers in what will be another fascinating Conference Championship game. They are two of the hottest teams in the league, both undefeated since their Week 10 losses.

The Steelers and their “Killer B’s”—Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Chris Boswell (No, that was not error. Give the man his due after kicking six freakin’ field goals last week)—face a Patriots team that is dominant in all three phases of the game. The bad news for Pittsburgh fans is that New England has thrived against Steel City in recent years.

Since 2003, the Patriots are 6-3 ATS and 7-2 straight up (including a 3-0 record at home) with Brady under center versus the Steelers in the regular season and postseason combined (discounting ’08 when Brady was injured). In the most recent game, Brady and Co. defeated Pittsburgh 27-16 and covered the 7.5-point spread, but that was under different conditions. Landry Jones was the starting quarterback, Rob Gronkowski was healthy, and the game was in Pittsburgh.

New England has received the majority of the spread tickets throughout the week and currently is getting 57% of spread bets. The same can’t be said about the spread dollars, which has moved a considerable amount and are split. Pittsburgh is receiving 51% of spread dollars, yet there hasn’t been much fluctuation in the line.

The Patriots moved to -5.5 shortly after opening, but that line has fallen back to the opening number. It’s worth noting that we have not recorded a single steam or reverse line move on our bet signals page, which suggests that public money is responsible for these line moves. There’s a chance we could see some sharp action later in the week when there are higher limits, so continue to monitor these lines.

There’s also some interesting movement in this game’s total. Weather reports indicate that there will be winds stronger than 10 miles per hour throughout the game. Oddsmakers at Bookmaker have already made adjustments based on that report, moving the opening total (50.5) down a half-point.

The average Joe is having their best NFL playoffs which in turn has made the last two weeks the roughest playoffs Las Vegas sports books have ever seen. It's been an incredible run, and those bettors have made it well-known what their collectively strategy is for Sunday's conference championship games.

"We're split overall on the Packers-Falcons game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, "but if the Packers win paying off on the money-line (+175), parlayed to the Over (61) and then tied to the Patriots covering (-6), it's going to be an ugly day."

That's the doomsday three-team parlay paying out +902 that the books simply can't make up through straight bet wagers on the other sides.

"It's been all Packers money-line with the fans (public) while the sharps have been on the Falcons," Simbal said. "Were 5.5-to-1 on ticket counts with the Packers money-line."

CG Tech's nine books in Las Vegas have theFalcons as 5.5-point home favorites over thePackers, which along with the Westgate SuperBook is the highest number offered in Las Vegas as of Friday afternoon. Most books are at -5 with the South Point offering the only -4.5.

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have seen 91 percent of their GB/ATL money-line tickets written on the Packers money-line (+175) as well as 78 percent of the actual cash.

Wynn Resort sports books director John Avello says he's "seeing some good size wagers on the Packers money-line". When Avello says "good size wagers" at a place that houses several whales who get any amount they want, I immediately think six-figures.

Who needs the points with the Packers anyway, right? Although, it was the Packers who needed +3 to cash in the Week 8 meeting at Atlanta when the Falcons won 33-32, the Packers to win outright has been the popular bet throughout town.

It's hard not to buy in to the reasoning and believe in quarterback Aaron Rodgers after saying his team would "run the table" when the Packers were 4-6 and playoff hopes were looking dim. True to his word, Green Bay has won eight straight (7-1 ATS) and made Joe Public a believer.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of the Packers-Falcons game is the monstrous record setting total sitting as high as 61.5 at Boyd Gaming and Station Casinos chain of local casinos. Most books, like CG Technology, are firm at 61.

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"We had sharp action take 'over' 59.5 and also 'under' 61.5. When we've been at 60 or 61 we've had good two-way action. The fans are betting Over."

The last two meetings between MVP candidates Matt Ryan and Rodgers have totaled a whopping 145 points.

"If Atlanta could win by 3, that would be super," said Simbal regarding his best scenario. "It would also help us out in futures because we do the best with them in NFC and Super Bowl."

Sunday's late game features two more elite quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, with thePatriots as consensus six-point home favorites over theSteelers and the public has made it clear who they support here with a number driven up from an opener of -4.5.

"They're betting New England and they can't stop betting New England," said Simbal. "We're at -6 and have over two times the cash on the Patriots. We've also taken a huge Patriots money-line bet (at -230). All the fans are betting the Steelers money-line (+220), but we still need them to win."

The Steelers come into this game on a nine-game win streak (7-1-1 ATS), but the Patriots have won eight straight (7-1 ATS). The most incredible thing about what New England has done this season is go 14-3 ATS when most of the spreads -- when Tom Brady returned in Week 5 -- were inflated by 25 percent of what the true rating suggested.

The Patriots won a Week 7 meeting at Pittsburgh, 27-16, as 7.5-point road favorites in a game that Roethlisberger missed. They last met in the playoffs during Big Ben's rookie season when the Steelers were seeded No. 1 and the Patriots (-3) won 41-27 earning a trip to the Super Bowl.

William Hill books have taken 88 percent of their cash on the game laying the points with the Patriots. The total in the game hasn't been as popular as the NFC game holding steady at 51 with a few books showing 50.5.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 12 years.

too much packer love ..... and the steelers kick FG's ....

we all know turnovers are the #1 determinant of the SU winner and the ATS winner. Look it up. In NFL since 2010, the team with 1 or more net turnover margin advantage in game has gone 1157-324 78% SU and 1121-333 77% ATS. Pick the team that will have the turnover advantage, you very likely have the ATS winner. Yes, easier said then done....

But given Big Ben's home/away stats, with his proneness for turnovers in general but esp. away (and mind you Ben has 9 INTs in last 6 games), compared to Brady's rare turnovers, which team is likely to have more turnovers?