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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

NHL Lagniappe 3/21

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (17) ARIZONA vs. (18) WINNIPEG
Favoring: WINNIPEG on the money line.
Play On - Home Favorites of -200 to -300 against the money line (WINNIPEG) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
(33-0 over the last 5 seasons.) (100.%, +33 units. Rating=8*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-0 +8 units).

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (5) TAMPA BAY vs. (6) MONTREAL
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the money line.
Play Against - Home teams against the money line (MONTREAL) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after playing 2 straight games where 8 or more total goals were scored
(50-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.3%, +38.5 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (14-4 +9.3 units).

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (7) OTTAWA vs. (8) BOSTON
Favoring: BOSTON on the money line.
Play On - Home Favorites of -200 to -300 against the money line (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season
(62-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.2%, +47.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2 +5.1 units).

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (17) ARIZONA vs. (18) WINNIPEG
Favoring: WINNIPEG on the money line.
Play On - Home Favorites of -200 to -300 against the money line (WINNIPEG) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season
(62-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (91.2%, +47.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2 +5.1 units).

Old Post 03-21-23 08:30 AM
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Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (25) VEGAS vs. (26) VANCOUVER
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams against the total (VANCOUVER) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season
(33-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.5%, +26.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +2.3 units).

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (5) TAMPA BAY vs. (6) MONTREAL
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (MONTREAL) - slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season, after playing 3 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored
(92-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.6%, +44.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (20-9 +10.5 units).

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (11) FLORIDA vs. (12) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season, after playing 3 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored
(92-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.6%, +44.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (20-9 +10.5 units).

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (1) COLUMBUS vs. (2) WASHINGTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (COLUMBUS) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a terrible team (<=30%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
(82-40 since 1997.) (67.2%, +39.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2 +6 units).

Old Post 03-21-23 08:32 AM
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Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (23) CALGARY vs. (24) ANAHEIM
Favoring: ANAHEIM on the money line.
CALGARY is 11-19 (-30.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CALGARY 2.9, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 6*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (1) COLUMBUS vs. (2) WASHINGTON
Favoring: COLUMBUS on the money line.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 1.7, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 6*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (23) CALGARY vs. (24) ANAHEIM
Favoring: ANAHEIM on the money line.
CALGARY is 3-8 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was CALGARY 2.6, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 5*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (23) CALGARY vs. (24) ANAHEIM
Favoring: ANAHEIM on the money line.
CALGARY is 22-30 (-34.2 Units) against the money line against poor defensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp this season.
The average score was CALGARY 3.1, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Old Post 03-21-23 08:32 AM
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Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (9) NASHVILLE vs. (10) BUFFALO
Favoring: Over on the total.
BUFFALO is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp this season.
The average score was BUFFALO 5.2, OPPONENT 3.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (21) SEATTLE vs. (22) DALLAS
Favoring: Over on the total.
DALLAS is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) against poor starting goalies - saving <= 89.5% of shots against this season.
The average score was DALLAS 5.1, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (19) DETROIT vs. (20) ST LOUIS
Favoring: Over on the total.
ST LOUIS is 20-5 OVER (+15.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
The average score was ST LOUIS 3.5, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (17) ARIZONA vs. (18) WINNIPEG
Favoring: Under on the total.
WINNIPEG is 32-11 UNDER (+19.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was WINNIPEG 2.9, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (17) ARIZONA vs. (18) WINNIPEG
Favoring: Under on the total.
WINNIPEG is 10-1 UNDER (+9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was WINNIPEG 2, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 4*)

Tuesday, 03/21/2023 (17) ARIZONA vs. (18) WINNIPEG
Favoring: Under on the total.
WINNIPEG is 24-7 UNDER (+16.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was WINNIPEG 2.9, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 4*)

Old Post 03-21-23 08:34 AM
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7 p.m. ET: Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils

The Wild (40-22-8) have won two of their last three games and just took down the Capitals 5-3, cashing as -140 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Devils (45-18-7) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 5-2 win over the Lightning, cashing as +100 road dogs. This line opened with the Devils listed as a -160 home favorite and the Wild a +145 road dog. Pros have laid the chalk with New Jersey, steaming the Devils up from -160 to -175. Home favorites with a line move in their favor in non-conference games are 112-62 (64%) this season. Sweet spot big favorites -175 to -225 are 173-77 (69%). The Devils are 31-17 as a favorite. The Wild are 5-11 as a dog. Both teams are allowing 2.7 goals per game defensively. The difference comes on offense where New Jersey is averaging 3.5 goals per game compared to 3 for Minnesota.

Old Post 03-21-23 11:10 PM
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8 p.m. ET: Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues

The Red Wings (30-30-9) have ten of their last twelve games and just fell to the Panthers 5-2, losing as +165 home dogs. On the flip side, the Blues (31-33-5) have won two straight and just took down the Jets 3-0, cashing as +120 home dogs. This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 home favorite and Detroit a +110 road dog. Pros have laid the short number with the Blues, driving St. Louis up from -130 to -135. The Blues have a big "rest vs tired" advantage of the Red Wings, as St. Louis last played on Sunday while the Wings are playing the second game of a back-to-back. Detroit is also playing their third game in four days. Favorites vs teams on the second leg of a back-to-back are 132-73 (64%) this season. Detroit is just 20-30 as a dog and 13-16-5 on the road. The Blues also have the better offense (3.1 GPG vs 2.9 GPG). The total is 6.5 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability. The Blues are 40-23-6 to the over, one of the best over teams in the NHL this season.

Old Post 03-21-23 11:11 PM
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10 p.m. ET: Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks

The Flames (31-25-15) have lost two straight and just got crushed by the Kings 8-2, losing as -105 road dogs. Similarly, the Ducks (23-37-10) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Canucks 2-1, losing as +110 home dogs. This line opened with Calgary listed as a -185 road favorite and Anaheim a +170 home dog. Pros aren't scared off by the big price and have steamed the Flames up from -185 to -200. Road favorites -175 or more are 236-91 (72%) this season. Road favorites vs teams who missed the playoffs the previous season are 148-79 (65%). Calgary is 15-11-11 on the road. Anaheim is 12-18-3 at home. Calgary has the better defense (3.1 goals allowed per game vs 4) and the better offense (3.2 GPG vs 2.6). The Flames also have the better power play (20% vs 16%) and penalty kill (82% vs 73%). Motivation could also be a factor, as the Flames are just four points out of the final Wild Card spot in the West while the Ducks have already been eliminated.

Old Post 03-21-23 11:38 PM
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Faves went 3-1 Monday with Flames-Kings closing pick-’em (Kings won 8-2). The upset was by the Senators (+150 in 2-1 win at the Penguins). The Panthers (-250 in 5-2 win at Red Wings), Avalanche (-400 in 5-0 shutout vs. Blackhawks) and Oilers (-300 in 5-4 OT win vs. Sharks) won as chalk. Home teams went 3-2. Overs also led 3-2.

Old Post 03-21-23 11:46 PM
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