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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NBA Finals Lagniappe 6/01
On paper, this matchup is not expected to be close, with the Nuggets favored by 8.5 points in Game 1 and -450 for the series. That shouldn’t come as a major surprise considering that Denver is a No. 1 seed that won 53 games in the regular season while Miami is a No. 8 that had to survive the play-in tournament to even qualify for the playoffs. However, as the Heat have been a regular Finals participant and one of the top teams of the 21st century, the Nuggets are in search of their first championship. The series has uber stars in Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler as well as some high-quality secondary players, so it should be entertaining to watch, starting on Thursday with Game 1. Should the series go seven games, it will wrap up on Sunday, June 18.
Before getting into the specific trends, you should know that three of the last four Finals series have been seed upsets, breaking a streak of five straight wins by the better seed. Miami will attempt to run that to four out of five. Also note that outright winners in the NBA Finals are 47-2-2 ATS over the last nine seasons, including 6-0 ATS a year ago. This is a glowing endorsement for moneyline wagering on underdogs.
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05-30-23 11:08 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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• In the last 10 playoff seasons, the better seeds own a 6-3 edge in series wins and a 30-21 game wins edge during that span. However, they are just 10-14 in games over the last four Finals series. In 2016, Cleveland and Golden State were both No. 1 seeds.
• This will be the ninth time in 10 seasons that the West representative had a better regular-season record. In that time, the team with the better regular-season record is 8-2.
• This will be the eighth time since 2013 that one of the teams won at least 10% more games in the regular season. In those other seven recent series, the series record is 6-1 and the individual game record is 27-14.
• The Heat boast a significant Finals experience advantage of late, having been in the title series three times since 2013. They are 1-2 in series and 7-11 in individual games.
• I explained in the conference finals round that there had been a massive advantage of late for the teams that had played fewer games in the first two rounds. That continued this season as the Nuggets easily moved past the Lakers and the Heat were able to survive a Game 7 in Boston to advance. There is no such advantage for the Finals, as is the nine series since 2013 in which teams played an uneven number of games in the first three rounds, the Finals team that played fewer games is just 4-5 in series wins and 26-26 in individual wins. For 2023, Denver has lost three games in the playoffs to this point, Miami six.
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05-30-23 11:10 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Trends by Game Number
NBA Finals’ opening games have sided with the home teams/favorites of late: Including the neutral-court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on an 8-1 SU surge (7-2 ATS) in NBA Finals Game 1s. The average margin of victory in the eight wins has been 13.8 PPG. However, the sole loss did come a year ago in Boston’s upset win at Golden State.
Home teams/favorites have also fared well in Game 2s of late: I just showed how well Game 1 home teams/favorites have done lately, well, they are also getting it done in Game 2, going 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven seasons.
Game 3s have been a momentum squelcher: The team that wins Game 2 in the last 10 NBA Finals has gone just 3-7 SU and ATS in Game 3. All seven of the losses were by double-digit margins as well.
Home teams/favorites struggle in Game 4s: Hosts/favorites have gone just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in the NBA Finals since 2013.
Home teams that won Game 3 are bad bets in Game 4s: Home teams that won their NBA Finals Game 3 are 1-4 SU and ATS since 2013 in Game 4, losing all three times by double digits, despite being favored in three of the games.
Defense/fatigue has ruled Game 4s: The first three games of the last nine NBA Finals have produced 211.6 PPG on average. Game 4 has seen a significant drop to 204.2, with eight of the last nine going UNDER the total.
Game 5 home teams/favorites have struggled since 2015: Only one of the last six Game 5 home teams/favorites has covered their point spreads, going 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS.
Momentum has been a big factor in Games 5-7: The later a series gets, the more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a double-digit win in an NBA Finals game are 7-4 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in Games 5-7 of a series.
Teams facing elimination in Game 6 have most often bowed out: Seven teams have faced elimination in Game 6 of the NBA Finals since 2013. These teams are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in those games.
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05-31-23 11:20 PM |
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