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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Thanks for posting Mike or I would not have known there was soccer on Tuesday. Let me take a shot.
9-25 Bundesliga
2* Freiburg vs Schalke Draw +216
These two teams have a recent history of low scoring games. In fact, 8 straight with 2 goals or less and Schalke with just 2 goals in 4 games this season. I will try my luck a draw here. GL
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09-25-18 03:10 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Werder Bremen v Hertha Berlin | Tuesday 25th September 2018, 17:30 | BT Sport
Werder Bremen overcame a disastrous start (W0-D5-L6) last season to table an 11th-placed finish, six points above the Bundesliga relegation zone. The upturn in fortunes came after reserve team boss Florian Kohfeldt was promoted to the top job as the Green-Whites ditched Alexander Nouri in late October.
Kohfeldt was understandably kept on in the summer and has since guided the group to an unbeaten start from their first four fixtures for the first time in 13 years. However, results don’t necessarily tell the full story for Bremen, who’ve flattered to deceive in the early stages of the new campaign.
Tuesday’s hosts were uninspiring in their opener – a 1-1 draw with Hannover, with a late leveller required to pick up a point, while a 2-1 triumph over 10-man Eintracht Frankfurt was only secured in stoppage-time. Thereafter, Werder were held here by Nurnberg before Saturday’s entertaining encounter with Augsburg.
The Green-Whites ran out 3-2 winners at the weekend, but only because of home goalkeeper Fabian Giefer’s gaffe. Augsburg actually won the shot count 19-11 and dominated the Expected Goals metric too, suggesting Bremen have been on the right side of things thus far this term.
Now, the River Islanders remain unbeaten at their Weser Stadium base under Kohfeldt (W6-D8-L0) but that high draw count, plus the widespread feeling that the northern outfit haven’t quite justified their early season results, mean there’s potential to oppose the hosts here.
Hertha Berlin arrive after making their best ever start to a Bundesliga campaign (W3-D1-L0) and are defending champions Bayern Munich’s closest pursuers after coming from behind to beat Borussia Monchengladbach 4-2 in a barnstorming encounter on Saturday.
Hungarian head coach Pal Dardai is renowned for his defensive organisation with the capital club, although early signs indicate the Berliners are looking to move towards a more fluid system. The visitors were a last-gasp equaliser at Wolfsburg away from posting a 100% record, and have in 12 on-target efforts across their last two outings against Gladbach and Wolfsburg combined.
Slovakian playmaker Ondrej Duda is the Bundesliga’s top scorer in 2018/19 with four goals and veteran striker Vedad Ibisevic already has three to his name, and I’m happy to count on the guests’ in-form marksman to get on the scoresheet and earn Dardai’s men at least a share of the spoils.
Liverpool loanee Marko Grujic faces three months out following a weekend injury but Per Skjelbred is an able replacement and considering Hertha have lost just four of their 11 away encounters this calendar year, while boasting the second-best defensive record on their travels last term, there’s plenty of scope to support the Berliners breaking Bremen hearts here.
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09-25-18 07:54 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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La Liga
Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano | Tuesday 25th September 2018, 20:00
Real Sociedad secured their second La Liga success of the season on Friday night but the Basques had to work hard for it against Huesca. Asier Garitano’s group scored the only goal of the game through summer signing Mikel Merino and had their backs to the wall late on following red cards to Theo Hernandez and Juanmi.
Both will now miss Tuesday’s tussle with Rayo Vallecano at Anoeta, although La Real should have enough in reserve to pick up a second consecutive victory. The hosts will be relatively happy with their seven-point return (W2-D1-L2), knowing it could easily have been more.
Four of Sociedad’s five fixtures have come away from home thus far, and the Basques were the better side when losing at Eibar. What’s more, Garitano’s men put champions Barcelona under serious pressure in their only encounter at their newly renovated Anoeta home.
La Real have posted four top-half finishes in the past six campaigns –Europa League commitments hampered last season’s progress – and during that time, the hosts form in San Sebastian has remained strong. The Basques ended 2017/18 with seven wins from eight and have W13-D4-L2 in their last 19 when welcoming bottom-half clubs to Anoeta.
Goals have been a regular feature of those 19 outings with 13 (68%) rewarding Over 2.5 Goals backers and nine (47%) surpassing the Over 3.5 Goals line. Indeed, against all opposition, Sociedad have seen their past 12 matches at Anoeta produce at least three goals.
With star striker Willian Jose again, and Rayo unlikely to present a defensive-first challenge, I’m happy to get behind a home win in a contest that includes Over 1.5 Goals at 10/11 (Ladbrokes).
Rayo won only eight times on their travels during their victorious title-winning Segunda season and Michel’s men averaged over 1.10 goals per-game conceded over the campaign as a whole. Those defensive weaknesses have already been exposed by Sevilla (1-4) and Alaves (1-5).
The capital minnows saw centre-half Abdoulaye Ba sent off against Alaves on Saturday and will now call upon Emiliano Velazquez to partner Jordi Amat at centre-half, while central midfielder Gorka Elustondo picked up an injury and is rated a major doubt to be involved, limiting Michel’s options.
Nevertheless, Rayo’s attack will be led by Raul de Tomas, scorer of 24 goals in the second-tier in 2017/18. The visitors’ hitman has already found the net in his two appearances and seen another ruled out by VAR, and should ensure the guests at least make a game of things on Tuesday night.
These two have already combined to provide Over 2.5 Goals profit in 6/9 (67%) La Liga games, as well as 6/9 (67%) successful Both Teams To Score selections. Take Sociedad to pick up all three points in an enjoyable, high-scoring encounter.
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09-25-18 07:56 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Sevilla v Real Madrid | Wednesday 26th September 2018, 20:00 | Eleven Sports
After watching Sevilla slump to a third consecutive goalless game when welcoming Getafe last weekend, supporters greeted Los Rojiblancos players with whistles and waved white handkerchiefs as they made their displeasure clear.
Just four La Liga fixtures into the 2018/19, new head coach Pablo Machin was feeling the pressure. Sevilla weren’t finding fluency in his preferred wing-back system and fans were demanding immediate results and improvements having finished below city rivals Betis for the first time since 2012/13.
Club president Jose Castro publically asked followers to give Machin time and promised the Sevilla project was on track. Fortunately, things clicked seamlessly and immediately into place last week as the Andalusians hammered Standard Liege (5-1) in the Europa League before smashing Levante 6-2 on Sunday.
Wissam Ben Yedder grabbed five goals across those two fixtures and should again be given the role of leading Sevilla’s attacking line, while Pablo Sarabia has enhanced his own reputation with a series of eye-catching attacking displays. Meanwhile, Roque Mesa is set to be recalled into Los Rojiblancos’ midfield.
Defender Gabriel Mercado remains sidelined and with last season’s best centre-half Clement Lenglet departing in the summer, the hosts aren’t yet completely convincing at the back. Indeed, on paper at least, Sevilla are noticeably weaker at the heart of defence.
Nevertheless, the Andalusians remain a mighty tough prospect at their Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan base. The home side have suffered only four defeats here in 21 La Liga outings since the start of last season, including a 3-2 win over midweek visitors Real Madrid, and 2-2 draw with champions Barcelona.
In fact, Sevilla can boast a W5-D2-L3 league record when entertaining Spain’s Big Two here since 2013/14, a run of results that includes four victories over Real. You have to go back to May 2015 for the last time Los Blancos took top honours here, a game that saw Cristiano Ronaldo net a hat-trick.
The Champions League winners haven’t enjoyed their trips to Europe’s hottest mainland city and there’s therefore scope to support Sevilla with a +1 Asian Handicap (8/11 188BET) start on Wednesday night. This selection would see our stake returned should Real win by exactly one goal.
The away side required a scrappy, VAR-checked Marco Asensio goal to overcome Espanyol at the Bernebeu on Saturday night in a display that boss Julen Lopetegui admitted saw Los Merengues lose control of. Gareth Bale and Toni Kroos were both rested for the contest and will return to starting berths here.
Nevertheless, Madrid’s road record has been sketchy for some time in Spain. Los Blancos were held in Bilbao last time out and have now managed only seven victories in their last 17 on their travels, whilst silencing just one of their last 14 hosts in La Liga – relegated Las Palmas.
With a derby date against neighbours Atletico Madrid on the horizon this coming weekend, Lopetegui may opt to make further changes to his XI, and that should encourage the hosts in what’s expected to be a high-scoring contest.
The hosts have scored at least twice in their last six when welcoming Real, while the past 11 meetings between the two have paid out for Over 2.5 Goals backers. Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score has banked in all 10 of Sevilla’s home games against Barca and Real since 2013/14 with six featuring Over 3.5 Goals.
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09-26-18 07:56 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Nimes v Guingamp | Wednesday 26th September 2018, 18:00
A chastening 3-1 defeat at fellow strugglers Bordeaux on Sunday saw Guingamp slide to their sixth successive Ligue 1 loss at the start of the 2018/19 season, and leave the Brittany boys four points adrift of their divisional rivals.
With four of the five previous clubs to make a pointless return after six games suffering relegation, EAG know they must find their best form sooner than later.
Antoine Kombouare’s men have been the poster boys for French football underdogs. Despite heralding from a tiny Breton town, with little history or pedigree, the top-flight upstarts have won the Coupe de France twice and made the knockout stages of the Europa League in the last decade.
Guingamp are well accustomed to punching above their weight, fighting adversity and operating off a miniscule budget. But has time run out on Las Costarmoricains’ dream? Possibly so, after a less than impressive transfer window.
EAG lost lynchpin Clement Grenier, leading goalscorer Jimmy Briand and premier creator Yannis Salibur without making the necessary reinforcements. It’s left Kombouare fielding an inexperienced side from a squad that lacks top-class talent or balance.
The Brittany outfit have conceded 17 goals – their worst tally at this stage in the top-flight and the worst tally for a Ligue 1 team after six games since 2005/06. Las Costarmoricains have leaked at least twice in all six outings and now face a tricky task away at newly-promoted Nimes on Wednesday night.
Performances probably haven’t been quite as bad as results suggest – Guingamp certainly aren’t anywhere near rock-bottom across the major data metrics – although their lack of quality in both boxes has hurt badly. But we’re not here to sympathise and instead following the early-season goals theme is advised.
The visitors have seen Over 2.5 Goals collect in each of their six encounters this term and their wretched road record is there to be attacking. Under Kombouare, Guingamp have W6-D9-L26 on their travels, recording only five shutouts. In fact, EAG have shipped twice or more on 27 (66%) occasions.
I’ve covered Nimes more often than any European side this season so I won’t go into major detail on Les Crocodiles here. The hosts were second-best at Monaco on Friday night but earned a welcome point to keep Bernard Blaquart’s troops in the safety of mid-table following an impressive opening stanza (W2-D2-L2).
Five of those six matches have seen Both Teams To Score bank, while four have surpassed the Over 2.5 Goals mark. Both selections have plenty of merit in midweek with Nimes’ goals per-game average at 4.33 but my preferred play is to support the hosts to score Over 1.5 Goals at even-money with Betfair.
The home side have scored five goals in their first two Stade des Costieres encounters since promotion against PSG and Marseille and notched eight goals in away trips to Monaco, Bordeaux and Angers, highlighting their offensive threat.
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09-26-18 07:56 AM |
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