let's keep rolling folks
GL

one to keep an eye on today is Nurnberg/Wolfsburg U 2'

heading over to med center for day surgery shortly.

be back around 1:00

glta

Tottenham will return to Premier League football this weekend with a spring in their step. They overcame the odds to qualify for the next round of the Champions League after taking just one point from their opening three matches. They welcome Burnley to Wembley on Saturday and will be looking to take all three points.

The performance at the Nou Camp was very good. It could be said that Los Cules rested key players for the match, but it was still a talented team that was put out by the home side. On another day, Tottenham could have won the game. They certainly had the chances. Mauricio Pochettino’s men have been going under the radar, but they could put themselves among the leading pack with a strong festive period.

Burnley are battling at the other end of the table and it is shaping up to be a difficult campaign. It is completely different from last season when they were pushing the top six. Last weekend, they managed to record a huge victory over Brighton and they will be keen to follow that up with a strong showing at Wembley. It is difficult to see them taking anything from the game, but they must perform well.

TEAM NEWS
Serge Aurier, Kieran Trippier, and Juan Foyth will all face late fitness tests ahead of Saturday. Davinson Sanchez could make his return, while Victor Wanyama and Mousa Dembele remain long-term absentees.

Johann Berg Gudmundsson and Steven Defour are both doubts for the visitors. Stephen Ward and Nick Pope remain a few weeks away from a return to action.

INTERESTING STATS

Tottenham have taken 36 points so far this season, which is their best start to a Premier League campaign.
Burnley kept a clean sheet last weekend. It was only their third at home in their last 18 league matches at Turf Moor.
KEY MEN
Son Heung-min

The South Korean has been very good during recent weeks and offered support to Harry Kane. At times, Tottenham can be reliant on the England captain to score their goals. However, in Son Heung-min, they have a player capable of easing that burden. They missed him during the opening weeks of the season as he was on international duty. Lucas Moura stepped up to grab his chance and it looked like Son had been pushed down the pecking order. He has had to work hard to move back into contention for a starting place and he has managed to do that. Son has scored two and assisted once in his last two Premier League fixtures. He is reaching his best form ahead of a busy Christmas schedule and he will be influential for Tottenham in the weeks ahead. Burnley haven’t been at their best defensively this season and there will be space for Son to exploit. He will be the danger man on Saturday.

James Tarkowski

Burnley need to get back to their strong defensive ways of last season and James Tarkowski is central to that. The Englishman is one of the most talented players at the club and he will have to be very good if the club are to move away from the bottom three. He is important at both ends of the pitch, as he showed last week as he scored the winner against Brighton. This weekend, set pieces will be crucial and likely offer the best chance of a goal for the visiting side. If they can get good deliveries into the box, Tarkowski will pose a threat. At the other end, he will have to be at his rock solid best to keep Tottenham out.

VERDICT
This is going to be a great opportunity for Tottenham to consolidate their position in the top four. They are playing before many of their rivals and they could set the marker this weekend, which has to be seen as a good thing. Burnley got a win last weekend, but they are still in a poor position in the league and it is difficult to see them getting anything from a confident Tottenham team

It was already going to be a big weekend in the Premier League with Liverpool battling Manchester United, but it’s been amped up after the Reds overtook Manchester City at the top of the league table.

Man City dropped down to second place following their first loss of the season, 2-0, at Chelsea. City are now one point behind Liverpool, but they remain heavy -250 favorites to win the league title with 22 games left.

Home teams won 6 of 10 matches in Week 16 for +4.88 units, including wins by Chelsea (+260 vs. Man City) and Cardiff City (+229 vs. Southampton).

Underdogs of +500 or higher have won just 2 of 77 matches for -63.32 units.

Favorites have fallen off a bit lately but have still gone 89-61 for +3.43 units.

Tottenham are now the most profitable club on the moneyline, winning 12 of 16 matches for +7.46 units.

The early match to kickoff the weekend will be Manchester City hosting Everton at 7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports. City are coming off their first loss in the EPL this season but are huge -430 favorites to get back to winning ways against The Toffees.

The intriguing betting action in this one has been on the total, with the majority of tickets and nearly 80% of the money on the under (3.5). Usually casual bettors are on the over, especially when it involves a team like Man City, but this time they’re on the same side as the sharps.

The featured match at 10 a.m. on NBC Sports will be Spurs hosting Burnley, hardly one to be excited about. As -550 favorites, Tottenham are fully expected to win, and by multiple goals. They should be brimming with confidence in front of their home fans after successfully qualifying for the Champions League Round of 16 at Barcelona midweek.

Again, bettors are bypassing the moneyline and focusing on the total, this time taking over (3.5) goals. Last season Burnley conceded just 39 goals in 38 matches, but have already given up 32 through 16 games this year. Oddsmakers don’t see things turning around anytime soon and list Burnley at -190 odds to be relegated.

Fortunately at 10 a.m. ET there are three matches that should all be competitive, at least based on the odds: Wolves-Bournemouth, Huddersfield-Newcastle and Crystal Palace-Leicester City.

Wolves have reeled off two straight wins after a terrible start to the year and nearly 70% of public bettors are backing a third. Despite the heavy support, odds haven’t budged. With some smart money on the under (2.5), I’d side with the draw (+250) instead.

In Huddersfield-Newcastle, all the line movement has been toward Newcastle to win, but bets have been spread out on all three results. Despite losing three straight games, Huddersfield could have easily picked up points in all of them, and I think they’ll finally get one against Newcastle. With the total sitting at just 2 goals, I’m sticking with the historical system and taking the draw +200.

In the late game at 12:30 p.m. ET (NBC), Fulham take on West Ham in a battle of West London vs. East London. West Ham are aiming for their fourth consecutive win against a struggling Fulham club stuck at the bottom of the Premier League table.

There were high hopes heading into the season but things haven’t panned out for The Cottagers, conceding 40 goals through 16 matches (2.5 per game). Fulham were embarrassed by Manchester United, 4-1, last weekend and will have to improve defensively to have any chance of staying in the EPL.

Public and sharp bettors just don’t see it happening this week and have battered the over, even causing a shift from 2.5 to 3 at some sportsbooks. Bettors have also leaned toward West Ham to win, and it’s hard to go against that considering their recent form.

SOC [200067] HUDDERSFIELD TOWN DRAW +198

YTD
19-18-3 +7.14

Huddersfield v Newcastle | Saturday 15th December 2018, 15:00
This game may be a short-priced favourite to be last on Match Of The Day but that doesn’t mean we cannot make money out of it and I don’t think it will surprise many that I am looking to do that by opposing goals.

Huddersfield may find themselves in the relegation zone but the Terriers will believe that they have been very unfortunate in recent weeks. They’ve lost to Brighton, Bournemouth and Arsenal in that time and could have easily had six or seven points from those games.

Against Brighton, Town were 1-0 up before a debateable first-half sending off meant they had to play with 10 men for most of the match. There were other decisions that went against them that day and their luck did not improve against Bournemouth, where despite comfortably winning the xG and having 23 shots to their opponents six, they lost the game 2-1.

Huddersfield faced free-scoring Arsenal last weekend and largely kept them in-check before conceding a relatively soft goal late on. Around six weeks ago, I believed that Huddersfield were doomed but they’ve actually impressed me. The loss of Aaron Mooy until at least February is a huge blow, however, and I struggle to make a case for backing them at 6/4.

I felt Newcastle were unfortunate against Wolves last weekend. Before DeAndre Yedlin’s sending off it looked like a 0-0 game in which somehow two goals had been scored. Both sides created very little and it was very frustrating to see my 1-1 correct score prediction lose out in the 94th minute.

Still, I believe there is plenty of reason to follow that logic again with this game. Under 1.5 Goals is available at 7/4 with Betfair.

If you look at Huddersfield’s results against their peers – so sides from seventh down – then nine of their 18 home matches have finished with one goal or fewer. Newcastle’s away record against the same sides is identical, and the Geordies have already had three goalless draws on their travels this term.

If you add the 1-1 draw to your staking plan (available at 11/2 with BetVictor) and place around a third of your stake on this result then you are getting almost evens on something that had occurred in 23 of their 36 combined matches. That’s almost 64%.

I really struggle to see either side scoring two goals. Since the start of last term, Huddersfield have achieved this in just three of their 27 home matches and Newcastle in seven of their 26 away matches.

Both games between the pair last term ended 1-0 to the home side. I think that’s the most likely result again but like the security of having the 1-1 draw onside as well.

Bolton v Leeds | Saturday 15th December 2018, 15:00
Leeds have won each of their past five matches against Bolton, losing once in 14 trips to the Trotters (W9-D4-L1) and the Whites can enhance that record by picking up maximum points when the two teams lock horns on Saturday afternoon.

Despite a defensive injury crises that has robbed Marcelo Bielsa’s men of Liam Cooper, Luke Ayling, Stuart Dallas and Gaetano Berardi, the visitors have rattled out four successive Championship victories since the November international break to cement their position in the automatic promotion berths.

Bielsa’s boys have conceded just 35 shots across those four fixtures – only nine of which found the target with an Expected Goals average of 0.92 – and with Leeds bossing the ball (enjoying a divisional-high 59% possession), opportunities for opposition outfits are limited.

That’s concerning for a Bolton side that’s picked up only three points from a possible 33 (W0-D3-L8) since September, tabling W1-D5-L11 across their past 17 matches. Wanderers have fired blanks in 10 of those 17 games, conceding at least twice on eight occasions.

Boss Phil Parkinson is being linked with the vacant Reading job and may be looking for an out. The Trotters are in off-field strife with players and staff being paid their November wages two weeks late, leaving morale at the basement battlers at rock-bottom.

The hosts have scored just four times in 13-and-a-half hours of action in front of their home supporters, losing ‘to nil’ half of their 10 tussles here. Only Ipswich (0.40) are registering a lower xG average from open play than Bolton (0.41), with the Trotters also posting just 5.67 attempts from inside the penalty area per-game.

Wanderers’ prospects are further diminished by the absence of suspended key forward Sammy Ameobi, whilst centre-half Mark Beevers is rated a major doubt.

My ratings make Leeds the best side in the division over the first 21 games – in terms of ratio rankings, the Whites lead the way for shots, on-target efforts, in the box strikes, xG and xG from open play, whilst second for touches in the box. Such excellent performance data makes the guests strong favourites to succeed on Saturday, especially so considering they've W8-D3-L0 against bottom-half sides under Bielsa.

Rather than promote a 7/10 poke on an away win, add in Under 4.5 Goals to the equation for a 19/20 shot with Ladbrokes. The pair have only featured five or more goals in only three of their combined 42 fixtures, with the average goals per-game involving the duo standing at a rather shy 2.31.

Crystal Palace v Leicester | Saturday 15th December 2018, 15:00
William Hill are offering even-money on both sides finding the net in this encounter and that is far too generous, in my opinion.

For much of last season, Crystal Palace’s lowly league position defied their performance data and unfortunately for the Eagles, it has been much the same this term, only this time they are unable to solely blame Christian Benteke.

The South London side only have only 13 goals and 12 points to their name yet Expected Goals suggest they should have found the net 18 times and be sitting pretty on 20 points. Incredibly, they have only found the net in two of their seven games at Selhurst Park this campaign but I am certain that their league position and goals tally will improve.

To date at home, Palace have had 32 shots on-target yet only scored four times. That’s a ratio of 12.5%, with the league average being 32%. Their conversion rates are unsustainably poor so I am willing to ignore the fact that just one of their seven league games have seen both teams score.

This is – in my view – due to a combination of tough opposition (they’ve already faced Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham at home) and poor finishing. Indeed, it’s worth noting that even with the dreadful recent record, 12 of Palace’s 24 home league games under Roy Hodgson have seen both sides score.

Leicester’s ability to both score and concede is pretty impressive. Since Claude Puel became Foxes boss they’ve scored in 19 of their 21 away games. Unfortunately for the East Midlands side they’ve also conceded in 16 of those matches. Therefore, under these two bosses, these clubs home and away records combine for 28 Both Teams To Score victories in 45 matches. That’s 62% and makes a mockery of the even-money.

Finally, I have to throw in a 2-1 victory for the home side at 10/1 with Bet365. Palace have won at home by this scoreline on three occasions since Hodgson took charge and Leicester have lost in this manner on five of Puel’s 21 games on the road. The price is a couple of spots too big, in my view.

yesterdays antics took longer than intended....Man there's a ton of + EPL wagers out there !!!!!!!!!!

SOC [200045] Leicester City +183
SOC [200047] Crystal Palace DRAW +210
------------------------------------------
386560304
SOC Tottenham Hotspur -2-107
------------------------------------------
SOC Newcastle United +211
SOC Huddersfield Town DRAW +189

glta

Bayern o3.5
Hoffenheim o3.5

Tottenham o3
Wolves o2.5

darn offside killed the equalizer

SOC [200067] HUDDERSFIELD TOWN DRAW +198..........L

YTD
19-19-3 +6.14

Chelsea at Brighton (8:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)

Bettors may be a bit apprehensive about taking the over (2.5) following Chelsea’s shutout vs. Manchester City last weekend, but the Blues did concede two goals at Vidi FC (Hungary) in the Europa League Thursday.

Brighton have also conceded in six straight matches and will be hard-pressed to stop Chelsea from making it seven. The home side could contribute a goal and ultimately I see a 2-1 or 3-1 Chelsea victory.

Manchester United at Liverpool (11 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)

Liverpool are riding a high at the top of the EPL table and have also secured a berth into the Champions League Round of 16 after defeating Napoli, 1-0.

Manchester United have also qualified for the knockout stage, but haven’t performed well in the Premier League, currently sitting 8 points behind the fifth position.

Public bettors don’t care and have been wiling to take Man Utd at enticing odds of +500 to +550. Usually sportsbooks don’t mind taking bets on a big underdog, but in a heavily-bet match like this one, they could face some liability if United were to pull off the upset. There’s no doubt that United will hold the title of “trendy underdogs” come Sunday afternoon.

As of now, the market doesn’t appear to be bothered, and has actually moved the line toward Liverpool (-175 to -185). As a rare contrarian home favorite, they’re looking like a solid bet to include in a parlay.

Arsenal at Southampton (8:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)

Arsenal are very trendy road favorites but they just continue to get results. They’re unbeaten in 22 consecutive matches in all competitions while mixing in young players to the rotation, and they’re also getting healthier with the returns of Mesut Ozil and Laurent Koscielny. Depth is a huge key during the busy December calendar of fixtures.

The bad news is that the Gunners have struggled at Southampton in recent years, winning just once in their last six matches at the St. Mary’s Stadium (1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses). A new manager and players may change that, but oddsmakers and bettors aren’t quite sure.

After opening at -110, Arsenal have actually dropped down to +101 despite receiving >80% of bets. Tickets will continue to flow in on the Gunners

o-fer yesterday , got up late .... chalk parlay

1 tw 3

Liverpool FC -185
Chelsea FC -231
Arsenal FC -123

glta