Kansas is a 3.5-point favorite over Arkansas Saturday. It’s the shortest line for a one-seed in the 2nd round since 1996 when Purdue lost to Georgia as a 2.5-point favorite

There have been just six one seeds favored by four points or fewer in the second round and only two won the game - Missouri over Wisconsin in 1994 and Ohio State over Georgia Tech in 1991. Missouri was the only one of the six to cover.

Top-seeded Indiana State is a 10.5-point spread favorite against 16-seed South Carolina Upstate, but pros are taking a position on the over/under instead.

This number opened at 153 and big bets from respected players have rocketed the total up to a consensus of 157.5 across the market.

Bet Signals are littered with steam moves on this over, which provides all the context we need to diagnose why the total has increased so much to this point.

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (829) USC UPSTATE vs. (830) INDIANA ST
Favoring: USC UPSTATE against the spread.
Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (USC UPSTATE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team
(42-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +28.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (11-3 +7.7 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (813) PRINCETON vs. (814) MISSOURI
Favoring: MISSOURI against the spread.
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PRINCETON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament
(69-31 since 1997.) (69.0%, +34.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (801) FURMAN vs. (802) SAN DIEGO ST
Favoring: SAN DIEGO ST against the spread.
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FURMAN) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament
(69-31 since 1997.) (69.0%, +34.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (829) USC UPSTATE vs. (830) INDIANA ST
Favoring: USC UPSTATE against the spread.
Play On - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (USC UPSTATE) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
(47-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +27.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-4 +4.6 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (829) USC UPSTATE vs. (830) INDIANA ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (INDIANA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games
(38-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.6%, +29.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (12-6 +5.4 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (829) USC UPSTATE vs. (830) INDIANA ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (USC UPSTATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games
(38-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.6%, +29.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (12-6 +5.4 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (831) N ALABAMA vs. (832) SOUTHERN UTAH
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 (N ALABAMA) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games
(84-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.7%, +51 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-2 +4.8 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (831) N ALABAMA vs. (832) SOUTHERN UTAH
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points (N ALABAMA) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games
(72-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.5%, +43.4 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-2 +4.8 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (829) USC UPSTATE vs. (830) INDIANA ST
Favoring: USC UPSTATE on the first half line.
Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (INDIANA ST) - in any first round tournament game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%)
(63-31 since 1997.) (67.0%, +28.9 units. Rating=2*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -1.1 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (831) N ALABAMA vs. (832) SOUTHERN UTAH
Favoring: N ALABAMA on the first half line.
Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SOUTHERN UTAH) - in any first round tournament game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%)
(63-31 since 1997.) (67.0%, +28.9 units. Rating=2*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -1.1 units).

Another trend to remember is that teams that cover their first two tourney games went 22-2 to the under and 16-8 ATS in their third game.

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (809) ARKANSAS vs. (810) KANSAS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (KANSAS) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
(47-14 since 1997.) (77.0%, +31.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 -0.1 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (835) W CAROLINA vs. (836) CHARLOTTE
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (W CAROLINA) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games
(42-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-7 +8.3 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (835) W CAROLINA vs. (836) CHARLOTTE
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (W CAROLINA) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games
(50-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.5%, +30.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (18-8 +9.2 units).

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (803) DUKE vs. (804) TENNESSEE
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (DUKE) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games
(61-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +33.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4 +0.6 units).

Most bet (tickets) teams to win NCAA Tournament at BetMGM


Alabama 10.4%
Kansas 9.3%
Houston 7.5%
Purdue 6.9% ❌
UCLA 6.6%
Texas 5.9%
Duke 5.3%
Gonzaga 5.1%
Arizona 4.8% ❌

Saturday NCAA Tournament betting at BetMGM


Most bet games
1. Duke vs Tennessee
2. Furman vs San Diego State
3. Arkansas vs Kansas

Most bet teams
1. Duke -3.5
2. Kansas -3.5
3. Furman +5.5

Most bet teams $
1. Duke -3.5
2. Kansas -3.5
3. Furman +5.5

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (801) FURMAN vs. (802) SAN DIEGO ST
Favoring: SAN DIEGO ST against the spread.
SAN DIEGO ST is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 71.8, OPPONENT 62.1 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (833) S INDIANA vs. (834) SAN JOSE ST
Favoring: SAN JOSE ST against the spread.
SAN JOSE ST is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) after a combined score of 125 points or less this season.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 76.1, OPPONENT 64.8 - (Rating = 5*)

Sunday, 03/19/2023 (847) KENTUCKY vs. (848) KANSAS ST
Favoring: KANSAS ST against the spread.
KENTUCKY is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season.
The average score was KENTUCKY 66.4, OPPONENT 74.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (819) HOFSTRA vs. (820) CINCINNATI
Favoring: CINCINNATI against the spread.
CINCINNATI is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 84.4, OPPONENT 68.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (801) FURMAN vs. (802) SAN DIEGO ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
SAN DIEGO ST is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO ST 67.7, OPPONENT 59.9 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (811) PENN ST vs. (812) TEXAS
Favoring: Under on the total.
PENN ST is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games this season.
The average score was PENN ST 64, OPPONENT 61.5 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (833) S INDIANA vs. (834) SAN JOSE ST
Favoring: SAN JOSE ST on the first half line.
SAN JOSE ST is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN JOSE ST 38.2, OPPONENT 31.9 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (803) DUKE vs. (804) TENNESSEE
Favoring: DUKE on the first half line.
DUKE is 9-0 (+9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DUKE 40.1, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (813) PRINCETON vs. (814) MISSOURI
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
MISSOURI is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was MISSOURI 44.3, OPPONENT 34.8 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/18/2023 (805) MARYLAND vs. (806) ALABAMA
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
ALABAMA is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
The average score was ALABAMA 33.4, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Public teams (+60% of bets) on Saturday 1st Round NCAA Tournament at BetMGM


85% of bets on Duke -3.5
80% on Kansas -3.5
68% on Auburn +5.5
65% on Alabama -8.5
63% on UCLA -7.5

In their first NCAA Tournament in 43 years, the Furman Paladins march on to face the San Diego State Aztecs in the second round.

After an arrant pass from Kihei Clark, Furman’s JP Pegues knocked down the go-ahead 3 to give Furman the lead with just 2.2 seconds remaining — a march moment that will live in the history books forever.

Now the Paladins must refocus as they take on the Mountain West champions in the Round of 32. San Diego State outlasted a spirited effort from Charleston in the first round to come out alive with a 63-57 victory.

Offensively, San Diego State was led by Matt Bradley, the only Aztec to finish in double figures.

Although this is a potential letdown spot for Furman after the most historic win in program history, I believe this matchup with San Diego State will give it a real shot at the Sweet 16.

Offensively, Furman has the ability to convert the perimeter chances San Diego State’s defense is willing to give up.

On the defensive end, the Paladins will be more than comfortable defending the Aztecs in their slow-paced half-court sets and will not allow SDSU to take advantage of them on the offensive glass.

In what’s likely to be a low-scoring,

Arkansas vs. Kansas Pick
5:15 p.m. ET | CBS

Arkansas opened as a 4-point underdog against Kansas at DraftKings Sportsbook and immediately climbed to +4.5, but it didn’t take the wiseguys long to pound this number into shape.

Bet Signals are reporting that sharps steamed the Razorbacks on Thursday night, pushing this line back through the opener and to a consensus of +3.5.

In addition, Arkansas has landed 71% of the money wagered on this spread, showing just how heavy oddsmakers are with underdog action heading into Saturday afternoon’s tip.

Experts have a top Duke vs. Tennessee pick on the over/under when the two teams meet in Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Round of 32.

It’s expected to be a low-scoring tilt between the No. 5-seeded Blue Devils and No. 4-seeded Volunteers.

Duke went under the total in the opening round Thursday vs. Oral Roberts. Overall this season, the Blue Devils have cashed 61.8% of unders.

Tennessee, meanwhile, also went under the total against Louisiana. The Volunteers own a respectable record to the under at 19-14-1 overall.

Despite less than half the public betting tickets on the under (47%), we’ve tracked a whopping 92% of the total handle — or dollars wagered — predicting a low-scoring game – and it’s respected money.

Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer lauded his defense multiple times during interviews in the opening round. Duke held a potent Oral Roberts team to just 19-of-63 shooting in an easy under on Thursday.

Most bet OVERs (tickets) Saturday NCAA Tournament at BetMGM


1. Duke vs Tennessee 128.5

2. Arkansas vs Kansas 142.5

3. Penn State vs Texas 138.5

Most bet UNDERs (tickets) Saturday NCAA Tournament at BetMGM


1. Furman vs San Diego State

2. Princeton vs Missouri

3. Northwestern vs UCLA

Big "short prep" edge for Cronin over Collins today.

UCLA deals with quick turnarounds all year in the Thurs/Saturday PAC 12.

Since arriving in LA, Cronin is 29-13 ATS (+4.2 cover margin) on one or two days' rest.

Collins is 11-16 ATS (-3.0 avg).